Economy on (Friday) 13.01.2023...

Today it goes then so slowly correctly los⤵️

And that on Friday the 13th You surely know: 1,2 Freddy comes by. 3,4 Soon he will be at the door...

The economic appointments are now increasing strongly again. So I will post an extra post again tonight, with the numbers from the day. Let's see how we end the 2nd trading week today then.

Economic data

04:30

• CN: Trade Balance December

08:00

• DE: Foreign trade (detailed results) November
• DE: Domestic Tourism November
• UK: GDP November PROGNOSIS: -0.2% yoy Previous: +0.5% yoy Three-month rate PROGNOSIS: -0.4% yoy Previous: -0.3% yoy
• UK: Trade Balance November PROGNOSIS: -15.1 billion GBP previously: -14.5 billion GBP
• UK: Industrial Production November PROGNOSIS: -0.3% yoy/-3.0% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy/-2.4% yoy

10:00

• DE: GDP (1st estimate for the full year 2022) price- and calendar-adjusted previously: +2.6% yoy price-adjusted yoy PROGNOSIS: +1.9% yoy previously: +2.6% yoy
• DE: Federal Minister of Finance Lindner, participation in roundtable discussion on generational capital

11:00

• EU: Industrial Production November Eurozone PROGNOSIS: +0.5% yoy/+0.5% yoy previous: -2.0% yoy/+3.4% yoy
• EU: Trade Balance November

11:30

• DE: Government-PK

13:00

• DE: SPD parliamentary group leader Mützenich, PK after annual kick-off meeting

14:15

• DE: Chancellor Scholz and Iraq's Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani, PK after talks in Berlin

14:30

• US: Import and Export Prices December Import Prices PROGNOSIS: -0.8% yoy previous: -0.6% yoy

15:45

• DE: Federal Minister of Defense Lambrecht, PK after meeting with defense industry representatives on Puma infantry fighting vehicle failures

16:00

• US: Index Consumer Sentiment Uni Michigan (1st survey) January PROGNOSIS: 60.7 previously: 59.7

16:10

• EU: Commission President von der Leyen and Sweden's Prime Minister Kristersson, joint PK in Kiruna to kick off Sweden's EU Council Presidency

16:20

• US: Fed Philadelphia President Harker (2023 FOMC voting member), speech at Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia.

Untimed:

• DE:German Federal Ministry of Economics, monthly report on economic situation January.
• DE: Closed-door meeting of the CDU federal executive board in Weimar (until Jan. 14)
• EU: Rating review for: Iceland (Moody's), Luxembourg (Fitch), Poland (Fitch), Spain (Moody's)

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

11:55 Unitedhealth Group quarterly figures

12:15 Blackrock quarterly figures

12:45 Bank of America | JP Morgan Chase | Wells Fargo quarterly results

14:00 Citigroup quarterly figures

Quarterly Figures / Company Dates Europe

07:00 Hella quarterly figures

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Economy on 10.03.2023...

What's going on again? US banks under pressure? ⤵️

What went off there again after the stock exchange opened in the USA. SVB Finance Group was suspended from trading and stood with further under -50% in the feed. Even the CEO had to intervene and call the VC investors. Capital increase, missed numbers and forecast reduction, led to this selling pressure. This has weighed heavily on the banking sector. JPM, BoA and WF were all down -5% in the juice. But there were many more flashpoints. Biden announced the budget and plans to tax the "rich", Credit Suisse postponed numbers despite "late call" from the SEC, and so on.

The real estate sector in Germany has suffered, due to the fact that Vonovia is currently in a lawsuit, LEG sharply reduced the dividend.

Also in the crypto sector it goes on again with Silvergate. they stop the operation. But everything will run normally here. Everything runs secured but still times again in the sector, there is negative news and these press on the market.

Therefore, yesterday the indices and the risk assets have been somewhat under fire. Since I have already bled properly. I'm curious to see how we end this week today. This week was just too much going on. Interest rates and so on...

Let's look at the day. Today, there are still many data from the U.S.

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Consumer prices (final) February PROGNOSE: +0.8% yoy/+8.7% yoy provisional: +0.8% yoy/+8.7% yoy previous: +1.0% yoy/+8.7% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +1.0% yoy/+9.3% yoy provisional: +1.0% yoy/+9.3% yoy previous: +0.5% yoy/+9.2% yoy
• DE: Building permits December and year 2022
• DE: Domestic tourism January
• UK: GDP January PROGNOSIS: +0.3% yoy previously: -0.5% yoy Three-month rate PROGNOSIS: n/a previously: -0.3% yoy
• UK: Trade Balance January PROGNOSIS: GBP -17.5 billion previous: GBP -19.3 billion
• UK: Industrial production January PROGNOSIS: -0.3% yoy/-4.3% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/-4.0% yoy

11:00

• DE: ECB Director Panetta, speech at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures

11:30

• DE: Government-PK

14:30

• US: Labor Market Data February Employment ex Agriculture PROGNOSE: +225,000 yoy previous: +517,000 yoy Unemployment rate PROGNOSE: 3.4% previous: 3.4% Average hourly earnings PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+4.8% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+4.4% yoy

15:00

• US: Treasury Secretary Yellen's hearing on the 2024 federal budget.

16:00

• DE: Chancellor Scholz, ECB President Lagarde, talks, Berlin.

Untimed:

• EU: rating review for Belgium (Fitch); Iceland (Fitch); Montenegro (Moody's); Norway (S&P); Portugal (S&P); Serbia (Moody's); Ukraine (S&P); Cyprus (Fitch).

Quarterly figures / Corporate dates Europe

07:30 Daimler Truck Annual Results

10:00 MVV Energie AGM

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Economy on 14.04.2023...

Poke, into the WE and before numbers of the Banken⤵️

...and was their numbers. Wells Fargo most interesting for me, of course, as I'm invested here. And despite the slide in this "new crisis," I'm still well up because I had picked this up really far down. JPM and Citigroup also still delivers. Then it also goes right away with the first big battleships. Unitedhealth Group and Blackrock are already looking at the numbers today. I'm curious to see whether Hermes will do as well as LVMH. I'm really looking forward to the Q1 reports and especially to the companies' outlook for the year. That could also give the first indications of what the companies are expecting now that they have left the first quarter behind them.

Yesterday, the market has stabilized relatively well. I'm curious whether we take that today into the weekend, or today still the profit-taking. Especially in the crypto sector, we have also weekly view really performed very well. Must here at the weekend also times my whole savings plans post. Bitcoin and ETH I currently run weekly. Solana I work out myself through an app and then I send everything always at certain intervals on my Ledger (hardware wallet). will go the way here a little longer.

Let's look now but times, what comes today still so. There are still some economic figures that are just as interesting as the quarterly figures of the banks!

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Wholesale prices March

10:00

• FR: International Energy Agency (IEA), Monthly Oil Market Report April

14:30

• US: Retail Sales March PROGNOSIS: -0.5% yoy Previous: -0.4% yoy Retail sales ex motor vehicles PROGNOSIS: -0.4% yoy Previous: -0.1% yoy
• US: Import and Export Prices March Import Prices PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

15:15

• US: Industrial production and capacity utilization March Industrial production PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 79.1% previous: 79.1%

16:00

• US: Consumer Sentiment Index Uni Michigan (1st survey) April PROGNOSIS: 62.0 previous: 62.0
  

16:00

• US: Inventories February PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

Without time data

• DE: Federal Ministry of Economics, Monthly Report on the Economic Situation April
• EU: Rating review for Belarus (Fitch); European Union (Moody's); Hesse (S&P); Croatia (Fitch); Portugal (Fitch); Czech Republic (S&P);

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

11:55 Unitedhealth quarterly results

12:15 Blackrock quarterly figures

12:45 JP Morgan Chase quarterly results

12:45 Wells Fargo quarterly results

14:00 Citigroup quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 TomTom quarterly figures

07:30 Nagarro detailed annual results and annual report

08:00 Hermes International sales 1Q

09:00 Ferrari AGM

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#sparplan

Economy on 25.04.2023...

No interest rate cut in May after all???⤵️

The ECB has already pronounced it yesterday and the market currently seems to price it in. The ECB sees inflation not yet at its peak and continues to assume the next interest rate step of 50 basis points. What will the Fed do here? One has actually also expected that the companies report bad figures. but so far it has been mostly good. Of course, many of the major companies are only this week and next week. But one counts meanwhile probably rather with a soft recession than with a hard one. And if it is so soft, why do you need interest rate cuts? Of course, it's great that companies are reporting good figures, and that's more important to me in the long term than lowering interest rates again. Then it should just go down again.

In the crypto market, you can see that just very nice. In addition, of course, there is still that just a Memecoin after the other, the world sees. Can only hope that you are careful. There is so much fraud among them. Many will lose in this way, a lot of money. That's why just with Bitcoin and Co, a lot of money is withdrawn and redeployed. But many have even after the increase this year, the profits times taken, because one now expects again with much lower numbers. For me, everything remains in place and the weekly savings plan continues.

Numbers Numbers Numbers... it will go around the next few days. This comes today:

Stock market holiday Australia

Economic data (abbreviated version)

07:30

• DE: ifo Export Expectations April

08:00

• CH: Trade balance March before: +2.475 bn CHF
• DE: Construction, new orders and sales February

16:00

• US: Consumer Confidence Index April PROGNOSIS: 104.0 previously: 104.2
• US: New home sales March PROGNOSIS: -0.9% yoy previous: +1.1% yoy

22:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from private American Petroleum Institute (API)

ex-dividend individual stocks

Airbus SE 1.80 EUR

Henkel AG St. 1.83 EUR

Henkel AG Short 1.85 EUR

LVMH 7.00 EUR

Vinci 3.00 EUR

Vivendi 0.25 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

12:00 Pepsico | Spotify | UPS quarterly figures

12:20 General Electric quarterly figures

12:30 3M Quarterly figures

12:55 Raytheon quarterly figures

13:00 McDonald's | Verizon quarterly figures

14:00 Dow Inc | GE Healthcare Technologies

14:30 General Motors Quarterly Figures

15:00 Citigroup AGM

16:00 Wells Fargo | Bank of America | IBM AGM

22:01 Microsoft | Alphabet | Texas Instruments

22:05 Visa Quarterly figures

Quarterly Figures / Corporate Dates Europe

06:45 UBS | Kühne & Nagel | Banco Santander

07:00 ABB | Novartis | Amadeus Fire | Hamborner Reit

07:00 Hyundai Motor | Adler Group | Akzo Nobel

07:15 Nestle Sales 1Q

07:30 Atoss Software Quarterly Figures

08:00 Villeroy & Boch | AB Foods Quarterly Figures

17:45 Kering | Carrefour Quarterly Figures

17:45 Vinci Sales 1Q

19:00 Telekom Austria quarterly figures

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Quarterly figures from 13.01.2023...

Today there were first interesting Zahlen⤵️

The quarterly season is now starting again and today there were, in my opinion, the first really interesting quarterly figures. As always, I summarize them briefly for you in this article.

$BLK Blackrock Inc:

Beat analyst estimates of $7.86 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $8.93. Revenue of $4.34 billion exceeded expectations of $4.26 billion.

$WFC Wells Fargo & Co:

fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.37 beat analyst estimates of $1.27. Revenue of $19.66 billion below expectations of $19.99 billion.

Wells Fargo expects fiscal 2023 net interest income to be about ten percent higher than the prior year at $45 billion.

$JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co:

Exceeds analyst estimates of $3, 11 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $3.57. Revenue of $34.5 billion above expectations of $34, 17 billion. Investment banking revenue of $1.39 billion (forecast: $1.66 billion).

JPMorgan expects net interest income of about 73 billion dol-lars in fiscal 2023, depending on the market.

$UNH United Health Group:

Health insurance group UnitedHealth beat analysts' expectations for revenue and profit in the fourth quarter. The shares are trading little changed in pre-market. UnitedHealth benefited from falling healthcare costs in the fourth quarter of 2022 and continued to grow. Revenue increased 13% from the year-ago quarter to $82.8 billion, UnitedHealth said Friday before the U.S. stock market open. Analysts had expected slightly less, at $82.6 billion.

Operating profit rose to $6.9 billion from $5.5 billion, while net profit margin increased to 5.8% from 5.5%. Diluted earnings per share increased from $4.26 to $5.03. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share were $5.34, above analysts' estimates of $5.17.

The medical expense ratio, which expresses the relationship between healthcare costs and premium revenue, decreased to 82.8% from 83.7% in the prior year, resulting in an increase in profitability. The pharmacy benefit management business, Optum, grew above average, increasing sales by 16.5% to $47.9 billion. For the full year, revenue increased 13% to $342.2 billion, while operating profit increased from $24.0 billion to $28.4 billion and diluted earnings per share increased from $18.08 to $21.18. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share increased from $19.02 to $22.19. The 2023 guidance published in November was confirmed. Accordingly, it expects sales of $357 billion to $360 billion, earnings per share of $23.15 to $23.65 and adjusted earnings per share of $24.40 to $24.90. The shares hardly reacted to the figures in pre-market trading and were last quoted around 0.3% down at USD 494.00.

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