1Mês·

What opportunities arise with identical twins

$8035 (+0,02%) . $ASML (+5,12%)
$MSFT (+0,22%)
$GOOGL (+3,49%)

Hello my dears,

I've been invested in these four companies for a few months now.

And I quickly noticed something here.

Alphabet and Microsoft behave almost the same way.

Sometimes one share is slightly ahead, but then it doesn't take long for the other share to follow.

It's the same with ASML and Tokyo Electron.

That's why it was almost clear to me that after the mini crash at ASML there would also be a crash at Tokyo Electron after the figures.

(I have compared the companies for you in the annual and 5-year charts).

Now my question would be to the short experts.

My dears,

aren't there good opportunities here, and wouldn't it have made sense to go short on Tokyo Electron before the figures?

@Dividendenopi
@Multibagger
@Epi

42 Comentários

Epi@Epi

1Mês

The idea sounds simple and effective. But perhaps you should check whether the last 3 times were more of a coincidence or systematic. I don't think the charts are clear.

But apart from that, you know that I tend to stay out of single stock trading strategies. That field belongs to others 😉

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@Epi
My dear,
Maybe it's a challenge for you 🙈😂.

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Epi@Epi

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 I don't know. 20 years of trying like this is enough for me. 😅

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 I have to strongly agree with him here. These are not correlated markets, but simply two giant companies. They run the same for a while, but the period is not fixed and that will stop again. Look at Meta pre correction a few years ago with the other FAANG shares, they were still running the same

One unexpected management decision and that was it

For individual stocks, I would rather look at liquidity or medium-term undervaluation and otherwise trade markets

(+ 20 years history minimum)

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

1Mês

Interesting approach, although Tokyo doesn't mean anything to me. No matter. I'm not a shorter on individual stocks, I go in 3 to 5 times on indices. I see myself more as an occasional trader and there on short-term rises. But I will try your approach in another area with two stocks that are currently in my trading portfolio and are both in the same sector and see if I can find a pattern.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@Dividendenopi
My dear fellow,
I'm glad because I think it could perhaps be a good approach to shortening.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@Dividendenopi
$STMPA and. $IFX could also be twins.
Same sector

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 ui, this is not my area at all, I think the most "technical" stock I have is $VZ 😂

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Smudo@Smudeo

1Mês

$GOOGL Long rising not short falling. Has just broken through all chart lines to the upside. Bull run (rising) not falling

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Kapitän K.@PalmPirateTechnocrate

1Mês

@Smudeo What exactly do you mean? Bull run?

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Leonardo@FascioeMartello

1Mês

I wouldn't use this info to go short, I would use it to decide if i want to buy before or after the quarter's results

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@FascioeMartello
Thank you,
This is also a good way to use the twins

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PikaPika0105@PikaPika0105

1Mês

Sounds like a cool idea. Maybe I'll give it a try and look for a few more twins first....

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@TomTurboInvest
Hello my dear,
what do you think?

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 Thanks for your patience, I'm still a bit in vacation mode 😌
I would be cautious about specific long or short trades. On high timeframes it may look quite synchronized, probably also because the stocks in question are in the same segment. But entering a trade based on earnings or a point in time x would be too risky for me.
Even if it looks like a twin in the long term, there are always differences in the short term.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@TomTurboInvest
Thanks for your assessment.
But as someone has already commented here, you could use it to decide whether it's worth buying before the figures.
Because I think if ASML had delivered good numbers, they would have been good at Tokyo Electron as well.

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 This can certainly increase the probability. But if I look at $GOOG and $AMZN over the last 3 years or YTD, for example, I could also see a twin. However, the reaction to the figures was different. With Amazon, you can clearly see how just a "small" difference in the cloud result can trigger a different reaction.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@TomTurboInvest
Yes, well, I think the two are a bit too different for that.
But ASML and Tokyo are in the same area.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

1Mês

Google and Microsoft also have pretty much the same business. That's probably where it comes from.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

1Mês

@topicswithhead they only have different strengths. Otherwise they are almost 95% different

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@topicswithhead
Yes, of course, and ASML and Tokyo Electron too.
That's why I see good opportunities to read the shares in advance.

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Chris@1Chrischi1

1Mês

he also writes twins :)

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 Well, I don't see it that way. So ASML would be pretty boring without EUV and ASML's story is EUV. EUV is also the reason for the huge service fees

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@topicswithhead
But you can see parallels on the chart, and when the other one went down, the other one followed. I see good opportunities to go short early on.

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Memo0606@Memo0606

1Mês

@Tenbagger2024 also thinking about joining $8035 for a while
what do you say tenbagger?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Mês

@Memo0606
I think you should look at which plant manufacturer offers the best opportunities.
They all work in relatively the same way.
$ASML $AMAT $LRCX $8035
But maybe Tokyo is a good opportunity right now.
I myself went into ASML last year after the poor figures.
But I am still in the red because ASML has still not recovered.
That's why I'm cautious with recommendations.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Mês

@topicswithhead But have performed differently according to the figures

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

1Mês

@Multibagger are also other companies. The same is not the same. Both ASML and Alphabet are structured differently from the other two. What's more, they are all listed in different currencies. Yen, Euro, Dollar

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

1Mês

@topicswithhead For example, ASML must have done so badly because the dollar price was even worse. Most of the trading volume is in USD.

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