Apart from the current standard reasons "geopolitical uncertainties, expectations of interest rate cuts, weakening US dollar", I can't think of any 🤷‍♂️

$PHAG (-2,38 %)

$IGLN (-1,75 %)

$EWG2 (-1,67 %)

$SPGP (-3,31 %)

$GDXJ (-3,36 %)

$FR (-4,34 %)

$FF (-2,55 %)

$BTO (-3,12 %)

Since gold broke above its previous high from 2020 at the beginning of 2024, it has been soaring.

Major banks have made massive purchases - a clear indication of growing institutional confidence, but also growing skepticism on the market.

📌Historical perspective: inflation and precious metals

Historically, gold and silver have performed particularly well in times of high inflation. While paper money loses value, precious metals traditionally offer security and value retention.

👉 The historical price ratio between gold and silver is also interesting.

Historically, this ratio has usually fluctuated between 15:1 and 80:1, currently it is in the higher range (approx. 89)which suggests that silver has the potential to catch up in the long term.

🆘Gold & silver in stagflation

In stagflation scenarios - economic stagnation combined with high inflation - precious metals have performed above average in the past.

👉 During the stagflation in the USA in the 1970s, the price of gold exploded from around 35 to around USD 850 per ounce.

Currently, many experts see a possible stagflation emerging again, triggered by high national debt, geopolitical tensions and a fragile economic situation.

This could be a catalyst for further price increases in precious metals.

📈Bull market 2025 and beyond?

Fundamentally, there are many reasons for a continuation of the bull market in gold and silver:

• 🪖 Persistent geopolitical uncertainties
• 🆘 Possible stagflation in the USA and Europe
• 📉 High government debt and expansionary monetary policy
• ☀️ Particularly for silver: strong growth in industrial demand from electronics, solar energy and electromobility

The main arguments against this are possible interest rate cuts or a surprisingly strong economic recovery, which could lure investors back into risk assets.

👇 In the following sections, we will now take a look at the charts.

If you are not familiar with chart technology, it is best to skip straight to the conclusion at the bottom

📌 Gold chart

☕Cup-and-handle formation

A cup-and-handle formation is a bullish (positive) chart pattern that often develops over several years. It resembles a cup with a handle and often signals a long-term trend reversal to the upside.

The formation consists of:

Cup: A long, u-shaped recovery that occurs after a sharp price rise and subsequent correction.

Handle: A shorter correction phase after the recovery before the price finally breaks out and ideally starts a long-term bull market.

👉 From 2011 to 2024, gold formed a clear cup-and-handle formation. (Cup: 2011 to 2020 - Handle: 2020 to 2024)

The most recent breakout from this formation in March 2024 could mark the start of a new long-term bull market.

📌 Silver chart

🧐 It is worth taking a long-term look at silver since 1960:

• Silver reached a spectacular high in 1980
• A new high was only just reached in 2011

📈 Silver is currently approaching this all-time high again.

A long-term cup-and-handle formation can also be seen here:

• Cup: 1980 to 2011
• Handle: 2011 to today (possibly completed soon)

👉 Technically, silver may be on the verge of a possible long-term breakout, which is extremely exciting.

📌 Conclusion

I currently see strong arguments for investing in gold and silver in the fundamental data and the technical charts.

Yesterday (18.03.2025) I increased my silver position in $PHAG (-2,38 %) in order to benefit from a potential rally.

I have to say that my investment horizon for gold and silver is very long (20+ years), as I consider precious metals to be the cornerstone of my portfolio.

This is the current composition of my precious metal portfolio:

• GOLD:
  $EWG2 (-1,67 %) , $IGLN (-1,75 %) (3.75% of my portfolio)
• SILVER:
  $PHAG (-2,38 %) (2.40% of my portfolio)
• Gold mining ETFs:
  $SPGP (-3,31 %) , $GDXJ (-3,36 %) (1.92% of my portfolio)
• Individual shares (very speculative):
  $BTO (-3,12 %) , $FF (-2,55 %) , $FR (-4,34 %) (< 1% of my portfolio)

Do you have gold and silver in your portfolio?

If so, what is your weighting?

You might also be interested:

🆘 Crash-Warnsignale & die beste Strategie: Was sagt uns die Vergangenheit?

📈 When in Doubt, Zoom Out – Chart-Tipps für Langfrist-Investoren

#gold
#silber
#edelmetalle