YTD return:

🥇 Gold: ≈ +39.1 %

🥈 Silver: ≈ +24.7 %

🥉 Copper: ≈ +20.6 %

⚗️ Palladium: ≈ +34.5 %

💎 Platinum: ≈ +45.4 %

🥇Gold:

📈Chart technicals: The uptrend is running in a clean rising weekly channel.

The all-time high at 3 500 $/oz (22 Apr.) is intact; setbacks to the 50-day EMA (~3 300 $) were absorbed each time.

Primary support zone: 3 200 - 3 100 $ - the previous breakout level. RSI > 60 confirms bullish momentum.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Central bank buying.

In 2025, the official sector is again targeting ≈ 1,000 t - the 4th year in a row of massive purchases, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.

🥈Silver:

📈Chart technicals:

Despite +25% YTD, the price is still ~30% below the historic peak of $49. The multi-decade cup-and-handle formation is approaching the neckline at 36 - 37 $; a significant weekly close above it could activate a target above 75 $. Short-term supports: $34.8 (May breakout level) and $32.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Supply deficit.

The World Silver Survey reports a shortfall of 149 Moz in 2024; a further 118 Moz is expected in 2025 - largely due to solar and e-mobility demand, while 70% of production is by-product.

🥉Copper:

📈Chart technicals:

On July 8, the "blue-sky breakout" to 12 526 $/t (5.68 $/lb) took place. Volume spike and weekly RSI > 70 confirm strength. The former top band 10 500 - 10 800 $/t now serves as key support; a retest to ~11 000 $ would be technically sound without breaking the uptrend.

ℹ️Fundamental driver no. 1: Structural scarcity.

UNCTAD warns: By 2030, around 80 new mines and $ 250 bn CapEx would be needed to meet demand from the energy transition, data centers and e-mobility - otherwise the market deficit will persist.

This is where I am currently positioned:

🥇Gold:

$EWG2 (+1,47 %)

$IGLN (+1,63 %)

$SPGP (+3,03 %)

$GDXJ (+3,25 %)

$BTO (+3,12 %)

$FF (+0 %)

🥈Silver:

$PHAG (+2,95 %)

$FR (+4,6 %)

🥉Copper:

$COPA (+2,29 %)

$HBM (+4,41 %)

$ATYM (+5,42 %)

❓Do you see a continuation of the bull market in metals and are you positioned accordingly?

As (real) interest rates fall, my overnight money reserve loses its appeal. 😏

In addition to the weekly $VWRL (+0,81 %) -savings plan, I am therefore allocating capital specifically to the copper sector for the first time - tactically, not as a permanent core position.

🚀 Fundamental drivers:

• Electrification & AI boom: E-cars, charging infrastructure, grid expansion, data centers.
• Demand > supply: WoodMac/IEA see a structural deficit from 2025.
• Falling ore grades: Head grade < 0.5% ⇒ rising AISC.
• Recycling is not enough: By 2030, scrap covers < 50% of the increase.
• Geo-lump: 60% of concentrate comes from Chile, Peru, DR Congo.

🚨 Risk: In a recession, copper usually crashes first.

For me, this would be more of a buying opportunity than an exit signal.

📍 Position 1:

$COPA (+2,29 %)

- WisdomTree Copper ETC

• Spot exposure
• Pure play on the price without company risk

📈 Chart:

Cup-&-Handle since 2006: Cap at ~€41 (2011 top) is currently under attack.

SMA 200 W (white) positive - first upward trend since 2012.

Volume profile: Largest cluster €30-33 → now support. - Above €41 "volume gap" begins with room for trend acceleration.

📍 Position 2:

$HBM (+4,41 %) - Hudbay Minerals

• Multiple ≈ 5 x - cheap vs. majors
• Three Tier 1 assets plus Copper World (Arizona) could lift production by 50% by 2027
• Relatively ESG-friendly, stable legal systems

📈 Chart:

Weekly close > $11.6 would be a multi-year breakout with projection $14-16.

SMA 200 W rising: recent volume spike points to institutional accumulation.

Volume profile: Point-of-control at ~$6 serves as a massive floor.

📍 Position 3:

$ATYM (+5,42 %) - Atalaya Mining

• The only major western EU copper mine (Proyecto Riotinto)
• Multiple ≈ 8 x, but pure copper story.
• E-LIX hydrometallurgy could reduce costs & extend life-of-mine.
• Minimal geo risk, € cash flows match EU demand

📈 Chart:

(The chart shown is quoted in British pence and has the longest history. Uses ticker E5S1 for the € price)

Ascending triangle 340 p (support) × 470 p (cap).

Close > 470 p confirms breakout with technical target 550-580 p.

SMA 200 W supports every dip since 2020.

My current copper positions:

That's it already 😁

What do you currently think of copper and are you invested?