$COPA (+0,64 %) what is happening here, tariff shock ? maybe a good time to $3HCL (+3,44 %) entry ?
Discussion sur COPA
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7
4Sem.·
Precious metal supercycle? The empire of metals strikes back
YTD return:
🥇 Gold: ≈ +39.1 %
🥈 Silver: ≈ +24.7 %
🥉 Copper: ≈ +20.6 %
⚗️ Palladium: ≈ +34.5 %
💎 Platinum: ≈ +45.4 %
🥇Gold:
📈Chart technicals: The uptrend is running in a clean rising weekly channel.
The all-time high at 3 500 $/oz (22 Apr.) is intact; setbacks to the 50-day EMA (~3 300 $) were absorbed each time.
Primary support zone: 3 200 - 3 100 $ - the previous breakout level. RSI > 60 confirms bullish momentum.
ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Central bank buying.
In 2025, the official sector is again targeting ≈ 1,000 t - the 4th year in a row of massive purchases, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.
🥈Silver:
📈Chart technicals:
Despite +25% YTD, the price is still ~30% below the historic peak of $49. The multi-decade cup-and-handle formation is approaching the neckline at 36 - 37 $; a significant weekly close above it could activate a target above 75 $. Short-term supports: $34.8 (May breakout level) and $32.
ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Supply deficit.
The World Silver Survey reports a shortfall of 149 Moz in 2024; a further 118 Moz is expected in 2025 - largely due to solar and e-mobility demand, while 70% of production is by-product.
🥉Copper:
📈Chart technicals:
On July 8, the "blue-sky breakout" to 12 526 $/t (5.68 $/lb) took place. Volume spike and weekly RSI > 70 confirm strength. The former top band 10 500 - 10 800 $/t now serves as key support; a retest to ~11 000 $ would be technically sound without breaking the uptrend.
ℹ️Fundamental driver no. 1: Structural scarcity.
UNCTAD warns: By 2030, around 80 new mines and $ 250 bn CapEx would be needed to meet demand from the energy transition, data centers and e-mobility - otherwise the market deficit will persist.
This is where I am currently positioned:
🥇Gold:
🥈Silver:
🥉Copper:
❓Do you see a continuation of the bull market in metals and are you positioned accordingly?
99
1Mo·
New copper positions in June
As (real) interest rates fall, my overnight money reserve loses its appeal. 😏
In addition to the weekly $VWRL (+0,66 %) -savings plan, I am therefore allocating capital specifically to the copper sector for the first time - tactically, not as a permanent core position.
🚀 Fundamental drivers:
- Electrification & AI boom: E-cars, charging infrastructure, grid expansion, data centers.
- Demand > supply: WoodMac/IEA see a structural deficit from 2025.
- Falling ore grades: Head grade < 0.5% ⇒ rising AISC.
- Recycling is not enough: By 2030, scrap covers < 50% of the increase.
- Geo-lump: 60% of concentrate comes from Chile, Peru, DR Congo.
🚨 Risk: In a recession, copper usually crashes first.
For me, this would be more of a buying opportunity than an exit signal.
📍 Position 1:
$COPA (+0,64 %)
- WisdomTree Copper ETC
- Spot exposure
- Pure play on the price without company risk
📈 Chart:
Cup-&-Handle since 2006: Cap at ~€41 (2011 top) is currently under attack.
SMA 200 W (white) positive - first upward trend since 2012.
Volume profile: Largest cluster €30-33 → now support. - Above €41 "volume gap" begins with room for trend acceleration.
📍 Position 2:
$HBM (+3,75 %) - Hudbay Minerals
- Multiple ≈ 5 x - cheap vs. majors
- Three Tier 1 assets plus Copper World (Arizona) could lift production by 50% by 2027
- Relatively ESG-friendly, stable legal systems
📈 Chart:
Weekly close > $11.6 would be a multi-year breakout with projection $14-16.
SMA 200 W rising: recent volume spike points to institutional accumulation.
Volume profile: Point-of-control at ~$6 serves as a massive floor.
📍 Position 3:
$ATYM (+1,86 %) - Atalaya Mining
- The only major western EU copper mine (Proyecto Riotinto)
- Multiple ≈ 8 x, but pure copper story.
- E-LIX hydrometallurgy could reduce costs & extend life-of-mine.
- Minimal geo risk, € cash flows match EU demand
📈 Chart:
(The chart shown is quoted in British pence and has the longest history. Uses ticker E5S1 for the € price)
Ascending triangle 340 p (support) × 470 p (cap).
Close > 470 p confirms breakout with technical target 550-580 p.
SMA 200 W supports every dip since 2020.
My current copper positions:
That's it already 😁
What do you currently think of copper and are you invested?
77
15 Commentaires
3Mo·
Copper, the next gold?
Copper consumption levels are expected to increase significantly in the coming years, driven by the energy transition and the electrification of the economy. Even accounting for approximately 20% of copper being substituted by alternative materials, the average demand growth over the next 10 years has the potential to exceed 10% annually, with lower rates in the earlier years of this period.
At the same time, forecasts indicate that copper production is likely to peak around 2030, followed by a decline in known reserves, which could further drive up prices in the long term. Taking these factors into account, it seems reasonable to consider starting a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy in copper, for instance, through the WisdomTree Copper EUR Hedged ETF . This product provides a practical way to gain exposure to copper prices while hedging against EUR/USD currency fluctuations (or just go for the commodity itself if no hedge is intended).
Unless there are major technological breakthroughs or substantial changes in copper substitution by alternatives in the coming years, this investment could prove attractive in the long-term horizon. However, if prices are not structurally supported before 2030, it might be more strategic to explore this type of investment closer to the production peak.
Am I overlooking something? Any thoughts?
6Mo·
Raw materials outlook 2025 🛢️🪙🥇🥈⛽️
- Oil
- gas
- EU emissions trading
- Copper
- Aluminum
- Gold
- Silver
Link: https://shorturl.at/5VrEF
#gold
#silber
#öl
#oiel
#kupfer
#aluminium
#metall
#edelmetalle
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77
1Année·
The price of copper ($COPA (+0,64 %)) fell this week by about 5% the biggest weekly loss since 2022 . The decline was driven by disappointment over the recent policy meeting in China where no additional measures were announced to stimulate demand for metals. China is a major consumer of metals and the lack of stimulus measures can have a significant impact on demand.
In addition to copper, prices for other metals such as iron ore, aluminum, tin and nickel. For example, the prices of iron ore prices the mark of 100 US dollars per ton. This general downward trend in metal prices is also being driven by a stronger US dollar reinforced. A stronger dollar makes metals traded in dollars more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
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