The year 2024 was positive for Repsol ($REP (+2,32 %) ), as the company made strategic progress achieved strategic progress. The adjusted profit amounted to 3.3 billion euros, and the operating cash flow reached 6.3 billion euros, even before taking the Sinopec transaction into account. The shareholder remuneration totaled 1.9 billion euros, which corresponds to 31% of the operating cash flow. The dividend was increased by around 30% to USD 0.9 per share and 60 million shares were bought back, which corresponds to 5% of the share capital at the beginning of 2024.

Repsol has reduced around 24% of its share capital through share buybacks over the last three years. Net debt decreased to €5 billion and total liquidity amounted to €9.5 billion, which is more than 3.5 times short-term debt. Net investments amounted to 5.7 billion euros.

An oil price of USD 75 is expected for 2025, with a refining margin of USD 6 per barrel, which should lead to an operating cash flow of between USD 6 and 6.5 billion. Net investments are estimated at 4 to a maximum of 5 billion euros. Repsol will pay a cash dividend of EUR 0.8 per share, which corresponds to an increase of 8.3% compared to 2024, plus a share buyback of at least EUR 700 million. Total production is expected to average 530,000 to 550,000 barrels per day, with the oil share increasing.

In the Upstream (oil and gas production) Leon Castillo in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to start production in August and contribute an average of 10,000 net barrels per day to production in 2025. The Campus 33 project in Brazil and Block 29 in Mexico are progressing according to plan and are scheduled to start production in 2028. The share of oil in the production mix is expected to increase compared to 20246.

In the Industry production at the new saffron HVO plant in Cartagena began in March. In Portoyano, the conversion of an existing gasoil hydrotreaters to HVO production is expected to begin in early 2026. The average margin indication for the year as a whole is forecast at USD 6 per barrel.

In the Chemicals EBITDA breakeven is expected to be reduced by up to 15% from EUR 260 to around EUR 220 per tonne. The new projects, in particular the expansion of Zines, are expected to contribute an additional EUR 100 to 140 million to EBITDA in the coming years.

In the Customer Division the number of digital customers rose to 9.3 million by the end of 2024, an increase of 17% compared to the previous year. The Power and Gas Retail division added more than 330,000 customers in 2024, reaching a record 2.5 million customers by December.

In the Low Carbon Generation the result was negative, mainly due to a lower contribution from renewable energies. The total amount of electricity generated by Repsol reached 7.8 terawatt hours. By the end of the year, Repsol had reached 3.7 gigawatts of renewable capacity in operation1. The plan for 2025 is to add more than 1 gigawatt of new generation capacity.

The following topics were covered in the Q&A session:

Production forecastThe production forecast for 2025 is between 530,000 and 550,000 barrels per day. Repsol plans to operate at the upper end of this range. Factors include the development of gas prices in the USA and production in Libya. Production in Libya is expected to increase due to new wells.

DivestmentsRepsol is planning divestments worth €2 billion, including €300 million from Colombia and €1.5 billion from the low-carbon energy business.

Liquidity Event UpstreamRepsol is working on an upstream liquidity event, with an IPO being one option, but other options are also being considered. The company is preparing the vehicle by the end of the first quarter of 2026, if market conditions allow.

Cash flow from new projectsThe new upstream projects are expected to increase cash flow by approximately $4.5 per barrel, which could result in an overall improvement of approximately $900 million per year.

Renewable energy marketThe market for renewable energy asset transactions is positive in Spain, but more complex in the USA.

US natural gas marketRepsol is cautious about the US natural gas market, but sees potential for increasing demand.

Strategy for low-carbon power generationRepsol continues to focus on return before capacity and plans to invest 3 to 4 billion euros in this area. The company is aiming for a return on capital employed of over 10%. A maximum of 9 gigawatts of plants are to be in operation by 2027.

Gas prices in EuropeGas prices in Europe are expected to be under pressure due to a colder winter and the need to fill storage facilities for the next winter.

Chemicals division: The outlook for the Chemicals division is not expected to be positive in the coming months. High gas prices are having a negative impact on the European chemicals business.

Cash flow guidance 2027Repsol is sticking to its cash flow target of 8 billion euros by 2027. The difference to the EUR 6.5 billion in 2025 is to be closed through new upstream production, growth in the customer business and in the low-carbon energy business as well as efficiency improvements.

I hope this summary has helped you.

Stay tuned!

In the current issue, "Der Aktionär" recommends these dividend stocks.

For a peaceful night's sleep (conservative):

• E.On $EOAN (+0,1 %)
• Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,93 %)
• Munich Re $MUV2 (-0,48 %)
• PepsiCo $PEP (-5,2 %)
• Procter & Gamble $PG (-3,83 %)

Top dividend with medium risk can be seen in:

• Andritz $ANDR (+1,75 %)
• Freenet $FNTN (+0,62 %)
• Imperial Brands $IMB (+1,36 %)
• Traton $8TRA (+1,05 %)

Dividends with a yield kick are located in these shares:

• Frontline $FRO (+2,53 %)
• Petrobas $PETR3 (-1,18 %)
• Repsol $REP (+2,32 %)
• Stellantis $STLAM (+3,25 %)

Source: Der Aktionär, Issue 08.2025