Mid-April 2025 finds the tanker market navigating turbulent waters. VLCCs grapple with softer forecasts amid trade wars, Suezmax and Aframax ride high on Atlantic scarcity, and clean tankers seize new routes from Argentina to Mexico. Sanctions choke Venezuelan flows, U.S. port fees loom, and shadow fleets bend under pressure. This is a sector steering through chaos with resilience—let’s dive into its journey.

⏬ VLCC Market: Holding the Line

Earnings Snapshot

The VLCC fleet, crude’s colossal carriers, faces headwinds as global demand forecasts falter. Baltic Exchange spot rates from Middle East-to-Asia hover at $36,500 per day, with Clarksons Securities slashing 2025-2026 projections to $50,000 per day (down from $70,000), citing trade war impacts. Eco-ships are projected to earn $53,000 daily, older units $46,000. DHT Holdings $DHT (+1.64%) reports Q2 spot bookings at $48,700 per day (56% covered) and time-charter earnings at $45,100. A seven-year charter for DHT Appaloosa at $41,000 daily (plus profit-sharing) signals long-term faith, though tariff jitters keep sentiment cautious.

Supply and Demand Shifts

OPEC+’s output hike and Venezuela’s halted U.S. exports reshape flows. Venezuela’s 250,000 barrels per day to China (four VLCCs monthly) may lean on shadow fleets or transshipment hubs like Malaysia, per Braemar, limiting mainstream gains. However, Pakistan’s proposed 16 million barrel U.S. crude imports (eight VLCCs) and China’s 7.3 million barrel Canadian surge via Trans Mountain Pipeline offer long-haul promise. U.S. sanctions sideline Iranian shadow VLCCs (e.g., Bestla, Egret), potentially freeing 13 compliant ships for 500,000 barrels daily—Clarksons sees rates struggling below $45,000 without this shift.

Broader Impacts

The IEA’s 33% cut in 2025 oil demand growth (to 730,000 barrels per day) and OPEC’s 1.3 million barrel forecast dent confidence, with Brent crude at $61.57 per barrel pressuring shale output by 2026. U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 10% globally) and U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne by 2028) spark caution, though exemptions for ballast vessels ease fears. DHT’s sale of Chinese-built VLCCs Lotus and Peony for $103 million reflects strategic pivots—VLCCs hold steady, eyeing tighter fundamentals.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Atlantic Surge

Rate Climb

Suezmax tankers, mid-tier powerhouses, soar on Atlantic scarcity. Spot earnings top $50,000 per day, with Braemar noting firm markets as Venezuela’s export halt (200,000 barrels per day to the U.S.) floods the basin with available ships. Czechia’s shift to Transalpine Pipeline imports via Trieste (from Russian Druzhba) boosts Mediterranean demand for Norwegian and Azerbaijani crude. Rates for eco-Suezmax climb to $52,000 daily, up from $47,000 last week, driven by tight tonnage and rerouting.

Hot Zones

Venezuela’s suspension of Chevron’s $CVX (-0.13%) cargoes (e.g., Dubai Attraction, Carina Voyager) leaves eight Aframaxes monthly seeking Atlantic trades, indirectly tightening Suezmax lists. Turkey’s Tupras resumes Russian Urals at $57 per barrel, with Kyklades’ Nissos Christiana delivering 730,000 barrels to Izmit. Pakistan’s potential U.S. crude imports (16 Suezmaxes equivalent) add upside. Mediterranean fixtures rise as Czechia’s 175,000 barrel-per-day refineries tap TAL—scarcity fuels this fiery ascent.

Trade Twists

U.S. sanctions on Iranian tankers (e.g., Reston, Nyantara) and Chinese refiners like Shandong Shengxing curb shadow fleet capacity, nudging mainstream demand. China’s pivot to Canadian crude (7.3 million barrels in March) stretches Pacific hauls, while Venezuela’s pivot to Asia via transshipment hubs like Singapore tests compliance. Tariff pauses (90 days for Pakistan) offer breathing room, but geopolitical heat keeps Suezmax on edge—resilient yet alert.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Atlantic Thunder

Rate Highlights

Aframax tankers, agile crude haulers, roar with spot earnings exceeding $50,000 per day. U.S. Gulf-to-UK Continent rates hit WS195, yielding $54,000 daily, while Mediterranean rates climb to WS180, netting $62,000. Venezuela’s export freeze floods the Atlantic with tonnage, yet redirected ships find work in Brazil-to-China ($18.74 per tonne) and Trieste-bound Czech flows. Baltic TCE rises to $50,500 per day (up $1,200 daily), with eco-Aframax at $53,000—Atlantic vigor prevails.

Tonnage Trends

Venezuela’s halt (six Aframaxes idled, including Pegasus Star, Ionic Anax) creates a surplus, but Braemar expects quick redeployment to non-sanctioned trades like Guyana-to-Europe. George Economou’s sale of eight Aframaxes (e.g., Monarch I, Saraswati) to Chinese buyers for Russian trades tightens compliant tonnage—six ships lift Urals from Primorsk in March. U.S. port fees exempt vessels under 55,000 dwt, sparing smaller Aframaxes—lists tighten as demand holds.

Sanctions Strain

Russian Urals at $57 per barrel (below G7’s $60 cap) draw Greek owners like Stealth Maritime (Suez Enchanted) to Primorsk, with G7-insured tankers up 36% in March. U.S. sanctions blacklist 140 shadow ships, squeezing Russia’s fleet—mainstream Aframaxes fill the gap, hauling to India and China. Czechia’s TAL shift and Tupras’ Russian pivot add cargoes—sanctions reshape routes, but Aframax thrives on Atlantic strength.

For illustrative purposes

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: New Horizons

Rate Rundown

Clean tankers sail divergent paths. LR2 MEG-to-Japan drops to WS125, netting $30,000 daily, while LR1 MEG-to-UK Continent falls to $2.9 million. MR Pacific rates slide to $19,500 per day (down 15%), but Atlantic MRs hold at $22,000. Torm’s $TRMD A (+3.61%) MR Torm Singapore pioneers 300,000 barrels of ultra-low sulphur diesel from Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery, and Tsakos’ $TNP (+3.26%) LR1 Chantal and Selecao lift 1.47 million barrels of Argentine fuel oil to the U.S. Handymax Med TC6 jumps to WS195, yielding $25,000 daily—West shines, East fades.

Market Moods

New trades spark optimism. Argentina’s fuel oil exports hit 66,000 barrels per day in March (up from 7,000), driven by arbitrage to Houston and Honolulu. The UK-to-Colombia petrol route (Energy Ariadne, 41,000 tonnes) reopens after a year, fueled by Europe’s 350,000 barrel-per-day surplus. Mexico’s Olmeca refinery curbs U.S. clean imports, yet Dos Bocas exports lift MR demand. Eastern LR rates sag, but Western MRs and Handymax surge on tight supply—split seas define this market.

Outside Forces

U.S. port fees (71% of tanker orderbooks Chinese-built) prompt sales like DHT’s VLCCs, but exemptions for small vessels shield MRs. Tufton $SHPC Assets sees tankers benefiting from tariff-driven rerouting—South America’s petrol deficit and Europe’s surplus stretch tonne-miles. Sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan flows push shadow trades to Asia, capping clean tanker gains—Western markets lead, buoyed by new routes.

The Petroleos Mexicanos Dos Bocas Refinery in Paraiso, Mexico - For illustrative purposes

🌐 What’s Moving It: Oil and Geopolitics

Oil and Supply

IEA’s 730,000 barrel-per-day demand growth (down 300,000) and OPEC’s 1.3 million forecast signal softer oil needs, with Brent at $61.57. Venezuela’s 680,000 barrel-per-day exports pivot to China (250,000 barrels), Pakistan eyes 16 million U.S. barrels, and Czechia’s TAL shift adds Mediterranean cargoes. Sanctions sideline shadow fleets (140 Russian, five Iranian tankers), lifting mainstream utilization—oil flows steer this market’s course.

Global Dynamics

U.S.-China tariffs (145%) and Venezuelan sanctions (25% on buyers) disrupt flows, though 90-day pauses offer relief. U.S. port fees ($18-$33 per net tonne) and Houthi strikes in Yemen add tension, but tankers outpace containers, per Tufton, via rerouting. George Economou’s ISAB refinery seeks new suppliers, signaling trade shifts—geopolitical storms test tanker resilience.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value in the Vortex

Stock Swings

Tanker stocks rebound 13% week-on-week, per Clarksons, after a 13% tariff-driven drop. Frontline $FRO (+2.96%) jumps 20% to $15.50, DHT $DHT (+1.64%) rises to $10.71, but IEA’s demand cut trims gains—Frontline, DHT, and International Seaways $INSW (+1.98%) dip 2%. Tufton’s $SHPC Q1 profit falls to $8 million (from $11.76 million), with a -10.4% NAV return as asset values slide. Clean tanker stocks like Scorpio $STNG (+3.96%) (down 1%) and Torm $TRMD A (+3.61%) (down 2%) hold firmer.

Investor Angles

Clarksons sees tanker equities at 73% of NAV for crude (58% for clean), implying VLCC rates below $40,000—undervalued with upside. Suezmax and Aframax earnings above $50,000 draw buyers, per Seaborne’s Eva Tzima, with IMS’ $26.3 million LR2 purchase signaling confidence. Tufton eyes rerouting benefits, while sanctions on shadow fleets could tighten markets—investors see value, but tariff risks linger.

Sector Outlook

Scaled-back port fees and tariff pauses lift sentiment, but Chinese tariffs threaten costs. Aging fleets (12% over 20 years) and low orderbooks (3% growth) hint at 2026 tightness. Stocks lag fundamentals, ripe for gains if trade stabilizes—tankers gleam as undervalued bets in the chaos.

For illustrative purposes

🌐 Outlook: Shifting Currents

Fluid Futures

VLCCs hover at $36,000-$50,000 daily—sanctions and new trades offer lift—steady. Suezmax at $50,000-$55,000—Atlantic scarcity powers on—robust. Aframax at $50,000-$62,000—Atlantic thunders—strong. Clean tankers split: LR at $25,000-$30,000, MR at $19,000-$22,000—West rises, East wanes—mixed. Rerouting and sanctions shape upside—2026 beckons if stability holds.

Your Call

Will Suezmax keep soaring, or clean tankers steal the show? Share your take—let’s chart the seas! 🚢

$NAT (+1.35%)

$FRO (+2.96%)

$TRMD A (+3.61%)

$STNG (+3.96%)

$OET (+0.3%)

$HAFNI (+0.74%)

$DHT (+1.64%)

$TNK (+4.2%)

$ASC (+2.67%)

$INSW (+1.98%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

Nothing seems to stop the recovery of the tanker stocks today after an unjustified sell-off last week !

$ASC (+2.67%)
$TNK (+4.2%)
$NAT (+1.35%)
$TRMD A (+3.61%)
$STNG (+3.96%)
$OET (+0.3%)
$HAFNI (+0.74%)
$INSW (+1.98%)
$FRO (+2.96%)
$DHT (+1.64%)

Mid-April 2025 casts the tanker market into a gripping saga of resilience and flux. VLCCs stand firm against oil price plunges, Suezmax and Aframax soar on scarce tonnage, and clean tankers weave between Eastern woes and Western grit. Sanctions tighten, tariffs loom, and shadow fleets slip through cracks. This is a tale of a sector thriving amid chaos—let’s set sail.

⏬ VLCC Market: Steadfast Giants

Earnings Snapshot

The VLCC fleet, those towering behemoths of crude, holds its ground as oil prices falter. Middle East Gulf-to-China rates linger at WS54.10, delivering $36,533 per day after a $1,100 weekly dip. West Africa-to-China rests at WS58.19, yielding $41,981 daily with a $700 gain, while U.S. Gulf-to-China settles at $8.26 million, equating to $46,629 per day after a $1,000 drop. Earnings cling to the mid-$30,000s, a sturdy anchor as Brent crude slumps to $63 per barrel (its lowest since 2021), trimming bunker costs. Robust cargo flows keep rates buoyant, even as stock markets tremble with unease.

Supply Boosts

A fresh gust lifts the market as OPEC+ unveils a bold 411,000 barrel-per-day output hike, set to ripple through from May. New cargoes will hit the water next week, promising a lifeline against softening trends. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Iran’s exports carve out shadow fleet capacity, sidelining 54 VLCCs and pushing utilization to 90% from 83% since October 2024. Off Malaysia’s east coast, two Russian Suezmaxes offload 2 million barrels to the VLCC Atila, now steaming toward Dongjiakou, China, by April 9. Shadow trades flex their resilience, tightening the reins on compliant tonnage, and VLCCs ride this swell with quiet strength.

Broader Impacts

Global tides tug at the horizon. U.S.-China tariffs climb to 145% versus 125%, stirring unease among traders, with Frontline’s stock down 34% since January yet rebounding 4% in recent Oslo trading. OPEC+’s bullish move jars against recession murmurs, but VLCCs find footing in low orderbooks and an aging fleet averaging 15 years. Analysts glimpse a late-2025 surge if sanctions and output align. For now, stability reigns, with promise bubbling beneath the surface.

For illustrative purposes

⏳ Suezmax Market: Cresting the Wave

Rate Climb

Suezmax tankers, mid-tier maestros of crude, seize a scarcity-driven ascent. Nigeria-to-UK Continent rates rise to WS104.72, netting $48,650 daily after a 9-point gain. Guyana-to-UK Continent reaches WS103.61, delivering $47,818 per day with a 7-point uptick, while CPC-to-Mediterranean steadies at WS130, yielding $65,500 daily. Middle East Gulf-to-Med inches to WS91, and the Baltic TCE leaps to $56,540 per day (a 2025 peak), adding $1,428 in a day. Tight U.S. Gulf and West Africa lists propel late April fixtures to WS102.5 for 145kt cargoes, handing owners a commanding perch.

Hot Zones

The U.S. Gulf ignites with chaos as fixture failures force charterers to secure ships via unconventional routes, shelling out premiums as tonnage vanishes. West Africa pulses with unresolved stems, where owners spurn softer deals, betting on further gains. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) roars back with 1.6 million barrels daily from the Black Sea, driven by Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, stretching hauls to Asia. Middle East Gulf tonnage fades as some vessels ballast south to the Cape of Good Hope, lifting eco-Suezmax rates to $50,300 daily from $45,000 last week. Scarcity fuels this fiery climb.

Trade Twists

Trade flows twist under strain. A Chinese Suezmax, Arina, ferries Venezuelan Merey crude from Cuba to Asia, dodging sanctions or shedding surplus. India rejects the Andaman Skies over non-IACS class issues, prompting a cargo swap to Ozanno for Vadinar delivery. CPC’s export revival and U.S. license cuts in Venezuela (Repsol pivots to Mexican Maya) stoke Suezmax demand. Tariffs rumble in the distance, yet today, scarcity keeps this market ablaze, with risks lurking for tomorrow.

Oil tanker Kerala, chartered by Chevron $CVX (-0.13%)
, is being loaded in the Bajo Grande oil terminal at Maracaibo Lake, Venezuela, January 5, 2023 - for illustrative purposes

⏱️ Aframax Market: Atlantic Roar

Rate Highlights

Aframax tankers, the fleet’s nimble warriors, roar across the Atlantic. U.S. Gulf-to-UK Continent peaks at WS200 before settling at WS190, yielding $52,404 daily after an 11-point rise. East Coast Mexico-to-U.S. Gulf hits WS225.83, delivering $68,309 per day, and Covenas-to-U.S. Gulf reaches WS221.56, netting $61,039 daily—both up 4 points. Cross-Mediterranean climbs to WS178.39, offering $60,646 per day, while North Sea holds at WS135-137.5, equating to $53,221 daily. The Baltic TCE rises to $49,397 per day (2025’s high), gaining $1,015 in a day—Atlantic might echoes loud.

Tonnage Trends

U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil redirect ships to Europe, siphoning Mediterranean tonnage. The U.S. Gulf’s gravitational pull deters ballasters, amplifying rate gains. Mid-April cargoes mostly settle, though stragglers may stretch timelines. Black Sea earnings stand tall with few available ships, while Mediterranean oversupply curbs third-decade fixes—Atlantic vigor lifts the region’s tide. Eco-Aframax rates touch $52,000 daily, outpacing yearly norms as thinning lists stoke the flames.

Sanctions Strain

Sanctions ripple outward. Four shadow Aframaxes—Hui Hai Atlantic, Krymsk, Reneez, and Ladoga—slip Russian and Iranian crude into China’s Dongying after AIS blackouts. Sovcomflot shifts 700,000 barrels of Sakhalin crude off Hong Kong to Gulei, China, bending around curbs. India’s IACS stance narrows compliant options, and U.S. pressure on Iranian facilitators adds tension. Yet Aframax roars on Atlantic strength, unfazed by the undertow—for now.

For illustrative purposes

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Currents Apart

Rate Rundown

Clean tankers sail divergent paths. LR2 MEG-to-Japan plunges from WS250 to WS130.28, with MEG-to-UK Continent dropping $271,000 to $3.73 million. LR1 MEG-to-Japan eases to WS139.69, MEG-to-UK Continent falls to $2.86 million, yet UK Continent-to-West Africa holds at WS130, yielding $25,000 daily. MR MEG-to-East Africa slips to WS190, UK Continent-to-U.S. Atlantic dips to WS132.5 ($13,895/day), and U.S. Gulf TC14 slides to WS98.57 ($19,668/day basket). Handymax Med TC6 leaps to WS192.22, while UK Continent TC23 lingers at WS150—East and West drift apart.

Market Moods

Asia’s clean waters darken as weak demand drags LR rates, though cheaper bunkers soften the sting. The West stirs with life—Handymax Med surges on short supply, and U.S. Gulf resists collapse, holding above Covid lows at $19,668 daily basket. Q1 spot rates rival late-2024 peaks, with rising crack spreads defying gloom—OPEC+’s boost could stretch clean hauls if refineries roar. Eastern fade meets Western flicker in this split-sea tale.

Outside Forces

U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil movers intersect with gray fleet pressures. BRS predicts 60 ships—especially LR2 and Aframax—could face scrapping if Russian curbs ease. Tariff jitters drag stocks into the mire, yet tankers’ lean balance sheets (25% debt-to-asset ratios) signal endurance. Clean markets teeter between Eastern slump and Western spark—external winds shape their course.

🌐 What’s Moving It: Oil and Tensions

Oil and Supply

OPEC+’s 411,000 barrel-per-day hike and CPC’s 1.6 million barrel-per-day exports fuel tanker demand. Brent at $63 trims fuel costs, though stock volatility keeps owners on edge. Shadow trades off Malaysia, China, and Hong Kong—moving over 4 million barrels—persist, with sanctions shrinking compliant fleets and lifting utilization. Oil’s surge steers this ship.

Global Dynamics

U.S. sanctions target 30 tankers tied to Iranian and Houthi networks. U.S.-China tariffs (145% vs. 125%) and EU’s 25% countermeasures brew trade war fears. Tankers shine with old fleets and low debt—resilience amid geopolitical storms sets them apart from faltering sectors like containers.

🌐 Market and Stocks: Value in the Vortex

Stock Swings

Tanker stocks weather a brutal squall. Frontline $FRO (+2.96%) slides 34% since January, clawing back 4% recently, while Teekay $TNK (+4.2%) nears cash-plus-scrap value ($14 million for a 15-year Suezmax). Hafnia $HAFNI (+0.74%) and Scorpio $STNG (+3.96%) slump to Covid-era lows, yet Q1 rates defy the gloom—tariffs cast a heavy shadow, misaligning stocks with fundamentals.

Investor Angles

Pareto deems the sell-off excessive, noting firms with 25% debt-to-asset ratios trade at trough vessel values—unheard of with elevated rates and newbuild prices. If valuations stagnate, buybacks or take-private moves could surge. Scorpio $STNG (+3.96%) and Torm $TRMD A (+3.61%) lead with deleveraged balance sheets, poised to weather storms. DNB positions tankers to outlast containers in a recession, thanks to rerouting benefits—value beckons, but patience is the watchword—upside whispers grow louder.

Sector Outlook

U.S. tariff pauses (excluding China) nudge shares upward, yet 145% Chinese tariffs cloud consumer impacts. Aging fleets (10% over 20 years) and inflation hint at a 2028 tightening—near-term jitters mask long-term bets. Stocks lag reality, ripe for a rebound if trade steadies—undervalued gems gleam in the chaos.

Tanker stocks - previous close prices (April 10th)(Prev) and intraday (April 11th) moves (Chg %)

🌐 Outlook: Shifting Horizons

Fluid Futures

VLCCs hover at $36,000-$46,000 daily—OPEC+ steadies the keel—resilient yet poised. Suezmax spans $47,000-$65,000 per day—scarcity powers ahead—robust and ready. Aframax ranges $49,000-$68,000 daily—Atlantic thunders on—strong as steel. Clean tankers diverge—LRs at $25,000-$36,000, MRs at $13,000-$19,000 daily—West rises, East wanes—mixed currents flow.

Your Call

Will Suezmax hold its crest, or VLCCs reclaim the helm? Share your take—let’s chart the course! 🚢

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - April 9th

$NAT (+1.35%)

$FRO (+2.96%)

$TRMD A (+3.61%)

$STNG (+3.96%)

$OET (+0.3%)

$HAFNI (+0.74%)

$DHT (+1.64%)

$TNK (+4.2%)

$ASC (+2.67%)

$INSW (+1.98%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market in early April 2025 blends steady rhythms with sudden jolts, shaped by regional dynamics and bold geopolitical moves. VLCCs are easing in the Middle East as cargo demand softens, yet the Atlantic keeps them afloat with solid exports. Suezmax faces headwinds from terminal disruptions and surplus ships, while Aframax thrives in the West on tight supply and Canadian crude shifts. Clean tankers—LRs, MRs, and Handymax—struggle with weak demand, especially eastward. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan and Russian oil, Panama’s shadow fleet purge, and Iran’s Gulf seizures are reshaping trade, with fees on Chinese-built ships adding complexity. As of April 4, 2025, it’s a market of resilience and rupture, driven by global headlines.

This update unpacks VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax, spotlighting the events that matter. From sanctions to supply shocks, here’s a clear, engaging rundown—easy to follow, rich with insight.

⏬ VLCC Market: Eastern Drift, Western Lift

Market Trends and Earnings

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the ocean-spanning oil haulers, are seeing earnings slip in the Middle East Gulf, settling around $36,465 per day by April 4 as mid-month cargo bookings dwindled. In the Atlantic, the story shifts—U.S. Gulf routes hold firm near $46,055/day—exporters there rely on steady demand to offset Eastern weakness. Gibsons paints a picture of a sluggish Middle East, where relet ships flooded the market, overwhelming thin April 10-20 loadings and eroding owners’ rate defenses. Jefferies notes VLCC spot averages at $45,000/day, edging past Q1’s $44,000, while Clarksons pegs eco-VLCCs at $49,200/day, showing mainstream crude still has legs.

Sanctions and Trade Shifts

U.S. tariffs of 25% on Venezuelan oil buyers, launched in late March, cut Jose port loadings—Kpler reports just 7 cargoes in March versus 15 in February—pushing more hauls across the Atlantic. President Trump’s March 31 threat of 25%-50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers adds pressure—India rejected the sanctioned Andaman Skies with 767,000 barrels, signaling tighter compliance. Panama’s April 1 move to deflag 125 sanctioned ships, including 68 tankers, shrinks the shadow fleet, redirecting cargoes to mainstream VLCCs via sales and purchases. Clarksons highlights a Q1 demand bump as India and China snapped up replacement crude—though a Pacific slowdown looms.

Geopolitical Risks and Outlook

Iran’s April 1 seizure of two tankers with 3 million liters of diesel in the Gulf raises the stakes—Ambrey warns U.S.-linked ships could face retaliation after the U.S. seized $47 million in Iranian oil proceeds. Oil firms and traders have capped rate spikes, prioritizing logistics—Gibsons sees a cycle bottom nearing, with Atlantic strength as VLCCs’ lifeline. The market’s split—West steadies, East drifts—keeps earnings balanced for now.

Oil platforms in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela

⏳ Suezmax Market: Disruption Dents, Gulf Persists

Market Performance

Suezmax tankers, mid-sized crude carriers, are under pressure, with earnings dropping to about $39,389/day by April 4, down 8 points from last week, as oversupply and setbacks hit hard. The U.S. Gulf offers relief—earnings there hover near $40,339/day—tight tonnage provides a buffer against broader declines. Jefferies tracks averages at $49,000/day, above Q1’s $39,000, while Clarksons lists eco-Suezmax at $45,700/day—yet Middle East tonnage growth darkens the horizon.

Terminal Disruptions

A big disruption struck the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)—U.S. disputes and OPEC overproduction claims shut two Suezmax berths, canceling April cargoes and cutting rates to around $54,500/day. The Middle East Gulf is stagnant—little cargo moved in early April—brokers suspect charterers are letting ships pile up to push rates lower. In the U.S. Gulf, thin supply holds firm, supported by Aframax below, though UK-Continent ballasters favor transatlantic runs, capping local gains.

Sanctions and Supply Shifts

Repsol’s Monte Serantes ditched Venezuelan crude for Mexican Maya after the U.S. revoked licenses for Eni and M&P, aligning with Chevron’s May 27 exit—Venezuela’s oil flow is shrinking. Panama’s deflagging of sanctioned tankers shifts cargoes to mainstream Suezmax, while Trump’s Russian oil tariff threat—25%-50%—looms large, with India’s Andaman Skies block showing swift adaptation. The market’s strained—CPC chaos and surplus ships drag it down, but Gulf demand keeps some hope alive.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Western Surge, Eastern Calm

Western Strength

Aframax tankers, the nimble crude movers, shine in the West—U.S. Gulf earnings hit around $65,358/day by April 4, up sharply, as tonnage dropped 50% month-on-month, tightening supply. North Sea rates rose to about $49,200/day—Jefferies sees averages at $50,000/day, far above Q1’s $32,000, with Clarksons at $47,100/day for eco-Aframax. Canada East Coast voyages spiked 67% in March, mostly to Europe, keeping tonne-miles robust and rates high.

Eastern Softening

The Mediterranean eased to roughly $56,700/day—late March’s rush faded, with ballasters and Suezmax soaking up volume. Activity has slowed, shifting focus to mid-April bookings—brokers say owners might trim rates for firm cargoes as competition grows. The CPC mess hits Suezmax more—Aframax feels little so far—but Europe’s crude import dip could temper gains.

Sanctions and Risks

India’s block of the sanctioned Andaman Skies (767,000 barrels) and Panama’s 125-ship purge boost mainstream Aframax demand. Trump’s 25%-50% Russian oil tariff talk could stretch routes—Greek owner Harry Vafias sees long-term shipping wins from trade inefficiencies. Iran’s Gulf seizures raise risks—Ambrey flags U.S.-linked Aframax as targets. The West leads—Gulf and Canada power ahead—while the East hints at a pause.

An aframax at the Trans Mountain Expansion Westridge Marine Terminal at Vancouver

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Struggles, West Sparks

Market Weakness

LR2s, the larger clean tankers, plateaued—Middle East Gulf-to-UK held under $4 million through April 4, showing no spark. LR1s stayed flat in the East, but UK-Continent runs rose to $21,739/day, up over $2,000, as ships grew scarce. MRs in the Middle East Gulf fell to around $17,512/day—U.S. Gulf settled near $25,902/day—while Handymax crashed, with Mediterranean rates down over 90 points from weak demand.

Demand and Rate Trends

Jefferies lists LR2s at $36,000/day and MRs at $29,000/day, topping Q1 figures—Ioannis Papadimitriou notes Northwest Europe loadings lifting UK-to-U.S. rates to a six-month high. Clean demand lags 2019 volumes, though tonne-miles beat it—recent softness persists, but refinery restarts and Red Sea risks could stretch voyages soon. Iran’s 3M-liter diesel seizure in the Gulf on April 1 might redirect flows over time.

Emerging Pressures

U.S. port fees on Chinese-built ships—up to $3.5M per call—have Intertanko reviewing contracts, as owners weigh U.S. runs. The clean sector’s down—Western gains flicker—but Eastern weakness pulls the mood lower for now.

January 16, 2025 - ships under construction in a yard of a shipbuilding company in Taicang, east China’s Jiangsu province

🌐 What’s Shaping It: Sanctions, Fees, and Flashpoints

Tariffs and Trade

U.S. 25% tariffs on Venezuelan/Russian oil and license cuts for Chevron and Repsol shrink exports—Atlantic tankers gain as trade pivots west. Panama’s 125-ship deflagging and India’s Russian crude block tighten compliant fleets—shadow trades fade, lifting mainstream demand. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs (April 2) rewrite maps—Greek owners like John Coustas see long-term tonne-mile wins.

Geopolitical Risks

Iran’s Gulf seizures and the U.S.’s $47M oil grab heat up tensions—Ambrey warns U.S.-linked ships could face blowback. CPC berth closures disrupt flows—tonne-miles rise, but seasonal lulls near. Chinese-built ship fees ($1M-$3.5M) loom—Clarksons predicts value gaps, MJLF sees rate hikes from chaos.

🌐 Outlook: A Market in Motion

VLCCs sit at $45,000-$49,000/day—Atlantic steadies, Middle East softens—sanctions could spark a lift. Suezmax ranges $39,000-$54,000/day—CPC stings, Gulf holds—surplus looms. Aframax spans $47,000-$65,000/day—West dominates—East may cool. Clean splits—LRs at $36,000/day, MRs at $29,000/day—West lifts, East lags.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - April 2nd

💬 What’s Your Call?

Aframax keeping the lead, or VLCCs set to rally? Share your take—let’s dive in! 🚢

$NAT (+1.35%)

$FRO (+2.96%)

$TRMD A (+3.61%)

$STNG (+3.96%)

$OET (+0.3%)

$HAFNI (+0.74%)

$DHT (+1.64%)

$TNK (+4.2%)

$ASC (+2.67%)

$INSW (+1.98%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market in late March 2025 is a tale of contrasts and catalysts. VLCCs hold steady with subtle gains, buoyed by U.S. Gulf tightness and Venezuelan export curbs, while Suezmax firms in the Atlantic but faces supply headwinds. Aframax rates explode, driven by Mediterranean frenzy and Canadian crude rerouting, and clean tankers—LRs, MRs, Handymax—see mixed fortunes with Eastern strength fading. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers, a Russia-Ukraine maritime truce, and Thailand’s rail bypass plan shake up trade flows. Iran’s forged Iraqi documents and Saudi production whispers add intrigue. It’s a market balancing resilience with disruption—rates are up, but risks are stacking.

This update dives into VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, unpacking the forces at play. From freight surges to geopolitical pivots, here’s the detailed scoop—clear and grounded.

⏬ VLCC Market: Holding Firm Amid Flux

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the titans of oil transport, trudged along with Middle East Gulf-to-China (TD3C) rates easing to WS 58.95, yielding a round-trip TCE of $39,224 per day as of March 28.

West Africa-to-China (TD15) slipped to WS 59.88 ($40,899/day), but U.S. Gulf-to-China (TD22) climbed to $8.522M ($45,838/day), up $262,555, reflecting a tight position list in the Gulf.

Modern tonnage for MEG eastbound runs is scarce, pushing charterers to older ships or ex-dry dock options at discounts—West Africa and Brazil offer more breathing room with balanced supply.

U.S. tariffs (25%) on Venezuelan oil buyers—effective March 25—slashed loadings at Jose port, with Chevron’s exit looming by May 27, dropping March exports from 15 to 7 cargoes.

Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd February exports (256,000 bpd to U.S.) now face rerouting—Arctic Securities sees VLCCs gaining from longer hauls like Canada or Saudi Arabia replacing them.

Breakwave suggests Saudi Arabia might flood markets as in 2015, potentially driving VLCC rates to $100,000/day if OPEC+ unwinds 2.2M bpd cuts starting April.

Clarksons notes a $48,800/day fleet average on March 26, down 4%—rates ticked to $46,263 by Friday—showing steadiness despite cooling from a $47,834 peak on March 19.

Iraq’s oil minister flagged Iranian tankers using forged Iraqi manifests—U.S. seizures in the Gulf underline Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran, tightening shadow fleet scrutiny.

Thailand’s $29bn Landbridge rail could bypass Malacca by 2030, trimming 2,000 km off VLCC routes—though years away, it’s a future wildcard.

MOL and CMB.Tech’s ammonia-fueled bulkers (not tankers) signal decarbonization’s ripple—VLCCs might feel fuel shifts later.

The market’s “steady as she goes”—U.S. Gulf strength and tariff fallout keep it afloat, but oversupply risks loom if Saudi acts.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Atlantic Rises, Clouds Gather

Suezmax, the mid-tier crude haulers, saw Nigeria-to-UK (TD20) rates rebound to WS 102.92 ($45,125/day) by March 28, up 7 points, fueled by U.S. Gulf momentum.

Guyana-to-UK (TD27) rose to WS 100.28 ($43,322/day), while CPC-to-Med (TD6) held steady at WS 130 ($63,123/day)—Middle East-to-Med (TD23) lingered at WS 93-94.

U.S. Gulf spiked to 145kt x WS 92.5, a $6,000/day TCE edge over TD20’s last-done WS 97.5—owners push for WS 100, a threshold narrowly missed last week.

Aframax support lifts both Atlantic sides—only one firm U.S. Gulf-to-TA option exists, with others tied to shaky schedules, tightening the squeeze.

Charterers snapped up West Africa and South Africa openers, thinning front-end lists—Eastern ballasters to Cape of Good Hope got nabbed, hinting at a post-weekend ease.

Clarksons pegged a $43,400/day average on March 26, down 1.4%—Atlantic firmness contrasts with supply creep that could stall gains next week.

Russia-Ukraine maritime truce (March 25) may cut Black Sea risks—Clarksons sees no volume shift yet, but safer Russian crude could draw ships.

The outlook’s firm for now—U.S. Gulf and Atlantic demand prop rates, but tonnage relief might cap the climb soon.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Europe Ignites, Rates Rocket

Aframax, the nimble crude movers, erupted—Clarksons’ fleet average hit $45,800/day on March 28, up 13% daily, 52% weekly, and 72% monthly.

Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) soared to WS 198 ($69,372/day) by March 28, a 69-point leap—eco-ships touched $67,000/day Friday, up 88% week-on-week after a $51,200 peak.

North Sea (TD7) jumped to WS 126.67 ($43,100/day), a 19-point gain—U.S. Gulf-to-UK (TD25) rose to WS 182.5 ($47,747/day), and Mexico-to-Gulf (TD26) hit WS 189 ($49,644/day).

Signal Ocean ties the surge to U.S. 10% tariffs on Canadian crude—Europe (UK, Netherlands) absorbs 69% of redirected barrels, with Aframaxes hauling over 75%.

Mediterranean fixing for April stems slashed tonnage—Fearnleys notes shrinking lists and few U.S. Gulf ballasters, driving rates skyward.

North Sea lagged but firmed to $46,900/day Friday—consistent cargo could push it higher as ships chase hotter markets.

CPC output stays quiet for Aframaxes—rates there await a spark, while U.S. Gulf-to-Europe eco-runs hit $43,700/day, up 38% weekly.

Clarksons calls it a “flurry of activity”—Med’s 57% weekly growth leads, but parity with Suezmax TCEs might temper the frenzy soon.

Russia-Ukraine truce hasn’t shifted volumes—ABG Sundal deems it “inconsequential” for now—focus stays on European demand.

Positive owner sentiment rules—Aframax outpaces bigger peers, with Q2 looking rosy if Canadian flows hold.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 26th

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Hits a Wall

LR2s, the large clean tankers, hit a plateau—TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) fell from WS 163.61 to WS 153.33, and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK) dropped $243,000 to $3.956M by March 28.

West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) dipped to $2.985M—stable but softer—Eastern petrochemical demand eased, cooling last week’s spike.

LR1s bucked the trend—TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) rose to WS 180.94, and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK) climbed to $3.33M—UK’s TC16 edged to WS 115.94, up 2.81 points.

MRs in the MEG retreated—TC17 (35kt to East Africa) lost 27.5 points to WS 237.5—while UK’s TC2 (37kt to U.S. Atlantic) peaked at WS 195, settling at WS 185.63 ($29,086/day).

U.S. Gulf MRs surged—TC14 (38kt to UK) hit WS 136.79, TC18 (to Brazil) reached WS 201.43, and TC21 (to Caribbean) jumped 38% to $839,286—basket TCE rose to $31,802.

Handymax softened—Med’s TC6 fell to WS 248.89 (down 30 points), and UK’s TC23 dropped to WS 198.06—last week’s Baltic gains faded.

Eastern strength wanes—naphtha pull subsided—U.S. Gulf enquiry cleared prompt ships, lifting rates there instead.

MOL’s ammonia-ready chemical tankers (2028-2029 delivery) hint at clean fuel shifts—today’s rates feel current supply more.

⏳ What’s Shaping It: Tariffs and Truces

U.S. 25% tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers and Chevron’s exit cut exports—VLCCs eye longer hauls—China and Iran bristle.

Canadian crude tariffs (10%) reroute barrels to Europe—Aframax thrives—Signal Ocean sees it lasting into Q2.

Russia-Ukraine maritime truce eases Black Sea risks—no volume boost yet—sanctions relief tied to Russia’s grain trade.

Iran’s forged Iraqi manifests dodge U.S. pressure—Iraq denies involvement—shadow fleets adapt.

Thailand’s Landbridge and Saudi supply hikes loom—OPEC+ cuts unwind could flood tankers by late 2025.

🌐 Outlook: Hot Spots, High Stakes

VLCCs hover near $45,000-$50,000/day—Saudi moves or Venezuelan gaps could spike it—steady for now.

Suezmax holds $43,000-$63,000/day—Atlantic’s firm, but supply might cool it—watch U.S. Gulf.

Aframax rides $45,000-$67,000/day—Med and Europe lead—Canadian crude keeps it cooking.

Clean tankers split—LR1s and U.S. MRs gain, LR2s and Handymax ease—East fades, West rises.

💬 Your Take?

Aframax boom or VLCC sleeper? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack it! 🚢

$NAT (+1.35%)

$FRO (+2.96%)

$TRMD A (+3.61%)

$STNG (+3.96%)

$OET (+0.3%)

$HAFNI (+0.74%)

$DHT (+1.64%)

$TNK (+4.2%)

$ASC (+2.67%)

$INSW (+1.98%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market in late March 2025 is firing on multiple fronts. VLCC rates shot up as Middle East cargoes snapped up ships, while Suezmax hit a yearly high in the Mediterranean with Kazakh oil pumping strong. Aframax lags with patchy demand, but clean tankers—LRs, MRs, and Handymax—are riding an Eastern wave of gains. U.S. sanctions are slamming shadow fleets, proposed port fees on Chinese ships spark debate, and Red Sea tensions stretch routes. Venezuela’s export shake-up looms, and Russian oil keeps flowing through sneaky transfers. It’s a high-stakes scene with solid rates and big uncertainties brewing.

This update breaks down VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax trends, plus the forces rocking the boat. From freight spikes to geopolitical jolts, here’s the full picture—laid out clear and simple.

⏬ VLCC Market: Rates Jump, Eyes on April

VLCCs, the giants of crude shipping, saw rates leap to $52,100/day on Middle East-to-Asia runs—a 33% weekly jump—as Saudi April cargoes drained a tight tonnage pool.

A MEG/Korea trip hit WS 67.5 ($51,536/day TCE), nudging toward WS 70, while West Africa to China (TD15) climbed to WS 66.75 ($49,598/day) and U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) rose to $7.797M ($40,321/day).

Atlantic support comes from Brazil and West Africa, but U.S. Gulf stumbles—tariff threats of $1.5M per port call on Chinese-built ships slow exports, though TD22 gained $455,000.

Sanctions nabbed five VLCCs like Kohana (Iran-linked) and tracked Sovcomflot’s STS off Hong Kong—700,000 barrels to Hannah—yet India (1.6M bpd) and China keep Russian oil flowing.

Venezuela’s 790,000 bpd exports face a Chevron $CVX (-0.13%) exit—Clarksons predicts a 0.5% tonne-mile boost if Middle East crude fills the U.S. gap.

The Daban’s month-long Russian oil trek ended in Qingdao, dodging sanctions via three Sovcomflot Aframaxes—shadow fleets adapt fast.

Fearnley sees yields over 10% for Frontline $FRO (+2.96%) and DHT $DHT (+1.64%) —rates could stick above $50,000/day if April stays hot, though futures lag the spot surge.

Activity’s set to hum—Atlantic production rises as peak export season nears, keeping owners hopeful.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Med Peaks, West Wavers

Suezmax in the Mediterranean soared to $63,000/day—a year-high—driven by 38 CPC cargoes from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field (960,000 bpd via Black Sea).

Globally, rates averaged $52,000/day, up 21%, but Nigeria to UK (TD20) slipped to WS 95.56 ($40,980/day), and CPC/Med (TD6) eased to WS 129.25 ($62,910/day).

West Africa and U.S. Gulf softened—TD20 dropped 7 points, and a Wilhelmshaven relet fell to WS 92.5 after a WS 100 sub—charterers dodged a hike past WS 90.

Germany seized the Eventin (152,000 dwt) with Russian oil in the Baltic—a $30M prize—signaling rare crackdowns on shadow fleets.

Middle East’s TD23 held steady at WS 92.5-93, despite ships shifting west—9M barrels head to Asia in March, 3M more booked for April.

Ukrainian drone hits on CPC pipelines didn’t dent loadings—Kazakh cuts for OPEC+ loom, but no big slowdown shows yet.

Allied notes Western momentum, though Atlantic demand lags—rates might climb further if tonnage stays tight and Asia pulls more.

Owners eye a spillover—West Africa’s steady gains could tighten things up if Med strength holds.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Flat but Flickers

Aframax, the smaller crude runners, stayed muted—North Sea’s TD7 parked at WS 107.5 ($25,500/day), while U.S. Gulf’s TD26 rose to WS 135.83 ($26,577/day).

Mediterranean’s TD19 ticked up to WS 120.61 ($29,000/day), but demand’s weak—March stems are scarce, pushing dates to early April.

U.S. Gulf to UK (TD25) gained to WS 145.56 ($34,697/day), hinting at life as ships ballast out—sanctions hit three Sovcomflot units like Volans.

Russian oil STS off Hong Kong (700,000 barrels) and Nakhodka Bay glitches (e.g., Canis Power) highlight shadow fleet risks—lists still show surplus tonnage.

CPC Aframax loadings fell to 25 in February from 33, with Suezmax taking the load—Kazakh shifts keep things lopsided.

North Sea and CPC lack punch—U.S. firming could lift rates to $30,000/day, but it’s a waiting game for now.

Owners see quiet fixes—consistency’s missing, though Atlantic flickers offer a slim chance of a push.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 19th

⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Gains East

LR2s in the MEG topped out at WS 166.94 on TC1 (75kt to Japan), now WS 164.17, with TC20 to UK at $4.2M—Med/East (TC15) dipped to $3.04M.

LR1s climbed—TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) reached WS 180.94, TC8 to UK hit $3.33M—while UK’s TC16 stayed flat at WS 112.5.

MRs roared in the MEG—TC17 to East Africa soared to WS 262.86—UK’s TC2 rose to WS 172.5 ($21,004/day), and U.S. Gulf’s TC14 jumped to WS 121.79.

Handymax rallied—Med’s TC6 hit WS 268.33, UK’s TC23 crossed WS 200 to WS 207.5—naphtha demand from Asia’s petrochemical boom drives it.

Sanctions cut scrubber premiums to $400/day—VLSFO ($497/tonne) edges out HSFO ($439.50)—some owners ditch scrubbers for profit.

U.S. Gulf MRs woke up—TC18 to Brazil hit WS 175.71, TC21 to Caribbean rose 40% to $617,857—Atlantic TCE basket climbed to $27,847.

Eastern rates rule—West gains traction, but Asia’s petrochemical pull keeps clean tankers humming strong.

🌐 What’s Stirring It: Sanctions and Shifts

U.S. sanctions target Iran (Shandong refiner, eight tankers) and Russia (Sovcomflot STS)—India, China, and Venezuela (790,000 bpd) adapt fast.

FMC eyes chokepoints (e.g., Suez) for bans—$1M-$100M fees on Chinese ships could clog U.S. ports, says Bimco—coal and grain face big cost hikes.

Red Sea airstrikes vs. Houthis stretch routes—Clarksons sees container rates up by June—crude pivots to Atlantic as Russia/Iran tighten.

Kazakh CPC oil (960,000 bpd) and Asian demand juice Suezmax and clean tankers—U.S. Gulf lags under tariff clouds.

Venezuela’s Chevron $CVX (-0.13%) exit could shift long-haul crude—sanctions and fees might reshape flows, not kill them.

It’s a sanctions-loaded, trade-twisting mix—rates ride high now, but disruption’s lurking.

USS Harry S. Truman carrying out strikes against the Houthis

🚨 Outlook: Hot Streaks, Big Risks

VLCCs might hold $50,000+/day if April cargoes pile on—Atlantic could add steam as exports peak.

Suezmax peaks in the Med at $60,000+/day—West needs a demand jolt—sanctions keep tightening the vise.

Aframax waits for traction—$30,000/day’s in reach if U.S. stirs—clean LR/MR/Handymax bank on Asia’s heat.

Port fees and Red Sea chaos could spike costs—volatility’s brewing, but strength’s got legs for now.

💬 What’s Your View?

Riding VLCC highs, or betting on Suezmax’s Med run? Drop your thoughts—let’s dig in! 🚢

$NAT (+1.35%)

$FRO (+2.96%)

$TRMD A (+3.61%)

$STNG (+3.96%)

$OET (+0.3%)

$HAFNI (+0.74%)

$DHT (+1.64%)

$TNK (+4.2%)

$ASC (+2.67%)

$INSW (+1.98%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market in mid-March 2025 shows stark contrasts. VLCCs face an eerie calm in the U.S. Gulf amid Trump’s tariff uncertainty, while Suezmax rates soar with tight tonnage in Europe and West Africa. Aframax softens slightly, as clean tankers—MR and LR—see mixed fortunes: LR2s spike in the MEG, but MRs lag in the U.S. Gulf. New U.S. sanctions on shadow fleet VLCCs and tugs, plus potential Iranian interdictions, rattle the sector, with $1.5M port fees looming for Chinese-built ships. Investors eyeing tanker stocks navigate a landscape of regional strength, geopolitical risks, and trade shifts.

This update covers VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, MR, and LR trends, plus key external drivers. From rate movements to sanction shocks, here’s the latest—volatility’s in the spotlight.

⏬ VLCC Market: U.S. Silence, MEG Stirrings

VLCC rates edged up slightly, with MEG to China (TD3C) at WS 58.55 ($39,305/day round-trip TCE) and West Africa to China (TD15) at WS 59.63 ($41,173/day TCE).

U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) held at $7.292M ($35,834/day TCE), but spot activity there turned eerily quiet—rates dipped to $35,700/day, a 13.1% weekly drop—as Chinese buyers pause amid Trump’s tariff flux.

Activity picked up late week in the MEG, with 25-31 March cargoes overlapping early April stems, leveling rates as owners resist further downside.

Atlantic tonnage thinned as Brazil and West Africa absorbed ships ballasting from the East, yet U.S. Gulf softness persists—Chinese buyers favor Panama and Canada.

Sanctions hit six VLCCs, including the 300,000-dwt Itaugua, scuppering its recycling deal in Bangladesh.

A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could flood markets with Russian oil, easing pressure on Iran’s 1.8M bpd exports—VLCCs might see shifts if U.S. “maximum pressure” intensifies.

Investors could find stability in MEG gains, but U.S. uncertainty looms large.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Tightness Drives Gains

Suezmax owners seized momentum, with Nigeria to UK Continent (TD20) jumping 10 points to WS 98.75 ($42,938/day TCE) and CPC to Med (TD6) soaring 23.5 points to WS 123.30 ($57,961/day TCE) for early April stems.

Guyana to UK Continent (TD27) rose to WS 94.17 ($39,899/day TCE), and MEG to Med (TD23) hit WS 92.5—Europe and West Africa cargoes slashed tonnage, forcing charterers to pay premiums for April laycans.

WS 120 was reported on subs for CPC/Med, with sub-price cap Urals trade adding demand pressure.

The U.S. Gulf lags, with tight tonnage undermined by cheaper Aframaxes below WS 145—though thinning Aframax lists for lightering may stabilize rates.

MEG lists are balanced, but Western strength could draw ships via the Cape or Red Sea.

Owners hold the upper hand—investors might see sustained upside if cargo flows persist.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Soft Spots Persist

Aframax markets eased, with North Sea’s TD7 (Cross-UK Continent) flat at WS 107.5+ ($26,000/day TCE) and Mediterranean’s TD19 (Cross-Med) down 5 points to WS 115.39 ($26,200/day TCE). Across the Atlantic, TD26 (Mexico/U.S. Gulf) slipped to WS 126.11 ($22,272/day TCE), TD9 (Covenas/U.S. Gulf) to WS 123.13 ($21,439/day TCE), and TD25 (U.S. Gulf/UK Continent) fell 10 points to WS 131.11 ($29,402/day TCE).

North Sea activity stayed sporadic, pushing natural dates to late March—rates need tighter tonnage to lift.

Mediterranean lists look healthy, but firm Suezmax rates curb part-loading, with third-decade stems fuller than the second.

Sanctions tagged two Aframaxes (e.g., 104,000-dwt Corona Fun), hinting at shadow fleet risks—softness may linger unless regional demand firms.

Investors might eye thinning lists as a potential floor, but gains remain elusive.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 12th

⏸️ MR Market: Steady East, Sluggish West

MR tankers showed regional splits. MEG’s TC17 (35kt MEG/East Africa) hovered at WS 205-210, stable despite LR gains, reflecting consistent demand.

UK-Continent’s TC2 (37kt ARA/U.S. Atlantic) rose from WS 138.75 to WS 159.06 ($18,285/day TCE), and TC19 (37kt ARA/West Africa) climbed to WS 179.69—gradual Western improvement.

U.S. Gulf MRs stalled—TC14 (38kt U.S. Gulf/UK-Continent) stuck at WS 85, TC18 (U.S. Gulf/Brazil) at WS 135-137.5, and TC21 (U.S. Gulf/Caribbean) edged to $414,286—torpid amid tariff uncertainty.

Sanctions hit the 45,700-dwt Polaris 1, signaling shadow fleet exposure.

The Atlantic Triangulation TCE rose to $19,667 from $17,176—MRs hold steady in the East, but Western softness caps upside for investors.

⏹️ LR Market: MEG Strength, Mixed Elsewhere

LR tankers saw MEG-driven gains. LR2s on TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) spiked 21.67 points to WS 151.67, and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK-Continent) hit $3.89M (twice reported on subs), reflecting hot demand. LR1s followed, with TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) up 30.94 points to WS 167.5 and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK-Continent) rising to $3.1M—significant weekly jumps.

West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) ticked to $3.1M, but UK-Continent’s TC16 (60kt ARA/West Africa) dipped to WS 110.94, muted by weak momentum.

DIS’s four Chinese-built LR1s face $1.5M U.S. port fees, potentially skewing trade—owners may sell or reroute.

LR strength in the East offers upside, but Western quietude and tariff risks temper the outlook—investors might weigh regional plays.

🌐 Geopolitics & Risks: Sanctions and Fees Loom

External pressures are mounting. U.S. sanctions hit 10 tankers (six VLCCs, two Aframaxes, one MR, one Panamax) and three tugs aiding Iran’s shadow fleet, disrupting recycling (e.g., Itaugua) and STS ops off Malaysia/Singapore.

A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could boost Russian oil, easing Iran’s 1.8M bpd exports—U.S. interdiction plans via the Proliferation Security Initiative add uncertainty.

Trump’s $1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships (71% of new tankers) threaten owners like DIS—asset prices could split, with non-Chinese ships rising.

U.S.-China tariffs (20% vs. crude levies) quiet U.S. Gulf VLCCs—investors face shifting flows and cost hikes.

🚨 Outlook: Regional Divides Persist

VLCCs may stabilize if MEG activity holds, but U.S. Gulf weakness and Iran risks cloud the picture—a Russian oil surge could shift demand. Suezmax strength could deepen with tight tonnage—Western demand may pull MEG ships. Aframax softness lingers without cargo lift, while MR and LR shine in the MEG but falter West of Suez. Sanctions and fees could favor non-Chinese tonnage, raising freight costs—investors might find Suezmax and LR upside, tempered by VLCC and Aframax caution.

💬 Your View?

Bullish on Suezmax gains, or wary of VLCC quiet? Share your take—let’s unpack it! 🚢

$NAT (+1.35%)

$FRO (+2.96%)

$TRMD A (+3.61%)

$STNG (+3.96%)

$OET (+0.3%)

$HAFNI (+0.74%)

$DHT (+1.64%)

$TNK (+4.2%)

$ASC (+2.67%)

$INSW (+1.98%)

*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

Week 10 of 2025 delivers a tanker market of contrasts. VLCCs remain flat with balanced tonnage, while Suezmax tightens and lifts rates in Europe and West Africa. Aframax softens under weak demand, as clean tankers—MRs and LRs—display regional divergence: LR2s recover in the East, but MRs face pressure in the West. Geopolitical risks escalate with U.S. tariff threats, potential Iranian interdictions, and Canada’s export surge, impacting $6.7bn of U.S.-listed tonnage. Investors eyeing shipping or oil markets face a blend of stability, opportunity, and uncertainty.

This update spans VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, MR, and LR trends, plus key external drivers. From rate shifts to regulatory clouds, here’s the latest—volatility remains a fixture.

⏬ VLCC Market: Steady with Latent Potential

VLCCs stayed level this week, with MEG to China (TD3C) at WS* 57.10 ($38,342/day round-trip TCE, up $1,000 w-o-w) and West Africa to China (TD15) at WS 58.50 ($40,633/day TCE). U.S. Gulf to China (TD22) plunged $767,500 to $7.28M ($36,497/day TCE), reflecting a $4,700/day drop. MEG/East rates held at WS 57 for modern ships—older units saw discounts—while West Africa activity rose above WS 60, bolstering owner sentiment despite weak U.S. Gulf exports. Breakwave Advisors flags tight dark fleet supply, with Iran’s February loadings down 37% m-o-m due to “clean” STS vessel shortages and Shandong bans. China’s refining strength (gasoil at historical norms, gasoline two-thirds above) contrasts Brent’s 2021 low—OPEC+ cuts easing and Russia sanction talks could lift VLCCs. Investors might note this stability, with geopolitical shifts as a wildcard.

⏳ Suezmax Market: Tight Lists Push Rates

Suezmax enjoyed a busy Tuesday, with Europe and West Africa cargoes trimming tonnage lists and nudging rates up. Nigeria to UK Continent (TD20) gained 2.5 points to WS 87.83 ($36,548/day TCE), and CPC to Med (TD6) hit WS 100.9 ($39,838/day TCE), while MEG to Med (TD23) reached WS 91. Five cargoes remain open, suggesting further upside as sentiment strengthens—TD20 and TD6 both rose 2.5 points from last fixtures. In the U.S. Gulf, tonnage is tight for March 10-20, with solid WTI exports to Europe, yet Aframaxes at WS 150 snag stems from Suezmaxes. MEG tonnage is scarce, but quiet volume and laycans shifting to mid-March dampen owners’ leverage. Breakwave sees VLCCs leading geopolitically, but Suezmax resilience here hints at regional gains—cargo flow will be key.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Demand Lags, Rates Soften

Aframax markets opened the week quietly in the West. North Sea’s scant activity left a long prompt tonnage list, easing TD7 (Cross-UK Continent) to WS 107.5-110 ($27,000/day TCE) with downward pressure building. Mediterranean/Black Sea demand weakened, dropping TD19 (Cross-Med) 3.5 points to WS 121.28 ($29,733/day TCE), as prompt ships linger and Suezmaxes dominate. In the Americas, Mexico’s stem cancellations tanked TD26 (Mexico/U.S. Gulf) and TD9 (Covenas/U.S. Gulf) 10 points to WS 132.78 ($25,687/day TCE) and WS 130.94 ($24,833/day TCE), while TD25 (U.S. Gulf/UK Continent) fell 15 points to WS 143.89 ($34,447/day TCE). Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline spiked exports 59% y-o-y to 373,000 bpd, with Aframaxes (75% of Vancouver loads) serving Asia—yet U.S. tariffs loom large. Ballasting remains viable; softness may deepen without a demand spark.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - March 5th

⏸️ MR Market: Western Pressure Persists

Medium Range (MR) tankers faced a softening week. MEG’s TC17 (35kt MEG/East Africa) peaked at low WS 220s early but fell to WS 211.79 as activity cooled. UK-Continent’s TC2 (37kt ARA/U.S. Atlantic) dropped from WS 152.5 to WS 135 ($13,500/day TCE), and TC19 (37kt ARA/West Africa) hit WS 157.81 ($19,216/day TCE), chipped away over five days. In the U.S. Gulf, TC14 (38kt U.S. Gulf/UK-Continent) eased to WS 85, TC18 (U.S. Gulf/Brazil) fell to WS 137.86, and TC21 (U.S. Gulf/Caribbean) lost $35,715 to $403,571—bottoming out amid slow demand. Breakwave notes NW Europe CPP loadings supporting TC2, yet rising MR ballasters from a closed U.S. Gulf arbitrage cap gains. Russia’s 9% February diesel drop adds supply pressure—MRs may struggle unless U.S. summer demand shifts the tide.

⏹️ LR Market: Eastern Gains, Western Stagnation

Long Range (LR) tankers showed regional splits. MEG LR2s rose, with TC1 (75kt MEG/Japan) up 6.11 points to WS 130 and TC20 (90kt MEG/UK-Continent) steady at $3.3M, fueled by diesel and jet demand—Breakwave sees light distillates driving Pacific LRs. LR1s lagged, with TC5 (55kt MEG/Japan) down 3.75 points to WS 134.69 and TC8 (65kt MEG/UK-Continent) dipping to $2.67M, reflecting quieter activity. West of Suez, TC15 (Med/East) held at $2.85M, but UK-Continent’s TC16 (60kt ARA/West Africa) fell from WS 123.61 to WS 113.33 as demand faltered. Breakwave flags rising LR availability in MEG short-haul trades, capping rate upside despite naphtha import potential for Asia’s refinery season. LR2 resilience contrasts LR1 and Western softness—watch distillate trends for direction.

🌐 Geopolitics & Risks: Costs and Flows in Flux

External forces are rattling the market. The U.S. considers interdicting Iranian tankers (1.7M bpd exports, a 4-year high) via the Proliferation Security Initiative, risking trade disruptions. Trump’s $1M-$1.5M fees on Chinese-built ships threaten $6.7bn of U.S.-listed tonnage—Teekay Tankers (44.4%), Frontline (35.8%), and others face hikes that could raise freight costs or divert buyers to non-U.S. crude. Canada’s 59% export surge (373,000 bpd) via Trans Mountain aids Aframaxes, but 10% U.S. tariffs cloud the outlook. Breakwave sees VLCCs gaining most from 2025’s turbulence—China’s discounted crude demand persists despite sanctions. Investors might weigh tariff exposure against tonnage tightness—uncertainty’s baked in.

🚨 Outlook: Diverging Fortunes

VLCCs could rise if Russia sanctions ease or Iran flows shift, favoring mainstream tonnage per Breakwave. Suezmax may firm further with Europe/West Africa cargoes, though U.S. Gulf lags. Aframax softness persists without demand, despite Canada’s boost, while MRs face Western pressure and LRs eye Eastern distillate gains. Geopolitical risks—tariffs, interdictions—could lift costs, favoring compliant tonnage, but mute U.S. export edges. Investors might find selective plays—VLCC and Suezmax strength versus MR/Aframax risks—amid a volatile backdrop.

💬 Your Take?

Where do you see tankers heading? Bullish on VLCCs, or wary of MR softness? Share your view—let’s dive in! 🚢

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*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.

The tanker market as of late February 2025 is a study in contrasts. VLCC rates oscillate between tight supply and softening sentiment, driven by geopolitical shifts and a wave of new regulations. Meanwhile, Suezmax and Aframax segments wrestle with oversupply and muted activity, though glimmers of demand—like Sudan’s resumed Dar Blend exports—offer some counterbalance. New U.S. port fees targeting Chinese tonnage, sanctions on Iran and Russia, and Trump’s Venezuela policy shift are reshaping the landscape. Oil demand wavers, adding another layer of complexity for shipping investors.

This update dives into the latest across VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax markets, alongside regulatory and oil market trends. For those tracking shipping stocks or oil-related investments, the mix of risks and opportunities here is worth dissecting. Volatility is the name of the game—let’s break it down.

⏬ VLCC Market: Volatility Holds Firm

VLCCs East of Suez show rates in the high WS 50s to China, a level reflecting recent ups and downs. The market’s been quiet this week with IE Week in London slowing activity, but modern tonnage remains scarce, hinting at potential rate gains once schedules clear. In the Atlantic, it’s a different story—tonnage lists are growing, and a lack of U.S. Gulf business has nudged Brazil-Far East rates down to WS 57.25 as the last done deal. Geopolitical ripples add spice: China’s rebounding imports of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude are fueling demand for older, unsanctioned VLCCs from the shadow fleet. Yet, U.S. sanctions just hit 5 VLCCs (average age ~19 years), part of an 11% capacity squeeze, while the EU and UK blacklist 153 shadow fleet vessels. This tightens supply for non-compliant routes, particularly Middle East to Asia, but softening Western sentiment and expanding tonnage could cap gains. Investors might note the thin balance here—tightness in the East versus oversupply risks in the West.

Rates - Dirty - Spot WS February 26th 2025

⏳ Suezmax Market: Steady but Under Pressure

Suezmax markets are subdued, with little to report East or West of Suez. In West Africa, available tonnage keeps climbing while cargo volumes stay weak, dragging TD20 rates into the mid-80s—a softening trend mirrored in the broader BDTI index. Stateside, activity is picking up in the U.S. Gulf, but Aframaxes are stealing the show, leaving Suezmax supply in charterers’ favor. At least six safe ships are open for mid-first decade March, suggesting rates for USG/TA runs might correct to WS 75 soon. In the East, surface activity is quiet beyond a few Indian quotes, and older tonnage keeps the market balanced, limiting upside. However, 20T crane-fitted vessels are scarcer, which could lift rates if Basrah barrels surge. A rare bright spot: Sudan’s first Dar Blend cargo in a year—1 million barrels on the Suezmax Toska—departed Monday, hinting at Red Sea demand if exports stabilize. For now, it’s a waiting game—steady, but soft.

⏱️ Aframax Market: Cargo Crunch Persists

Aframaxes are feeling the pinch from limited cargo availability. IE Week has kept surface activity low, and natural dates are stretching to the end of March’s first decade. Larger ships are snapping up stems, leaving fewer opportunities for Aframaxes, while ballasting out remains an attractive option for early tonnage. In the Mediterranean, vessels from the North Sea are adding to an already long list, forcing owners to compete harder for employment. U.S. Gulf action might pull some ships stateside, but without a local cargo boost, it’s unlikely to lift rates here. Sanctions complicate things further—3 Aframaxes (~22 years old) were tagged in the latest U.S. Iran crackdown, part of a 16% capacity hit for this class. On the flip side, Dar Blend’s return (historically 61% Aframax-lifted) could tighten tonnage if Sudan’s exports hold. Investors might weigh this oversupply against niche demand pockets—recovery hinges on volume.

1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER

🌐 Regulatory Waves: Rising Costs, Shifting Flows

Regulatory changes are shaking the tanker market. The U.S. proposes new port fees—up to $1M-$1.5M per call for Chinese-built or owned ships (21-22% of U.S. trade tonnage), adding $7.14-$21.43/t to Aframax costs. This could make U.S. crude less competitive in Europe, pushing oil firms to favor non-penalized tonnage. Sanctions pile on: U.S. targets 13 Iran-linked vessels (11% VLCC, 16% Aframax capacity), while EU/UK bans on Russian hubs like Ust-Luga and 40 more tankers disrupt shadow fleets. Trump’s plan to revoke Chevron’s Venezuela license by March 1 threatens 209k b/d of Aframax exports to the U.S., likely rerouting VLCCs to Asia and raising freight costs. Syria’s EU sanction relief and Dar Blend’s restart signal potential Mediterranean demand, but uncertainty reigns. These moves could favor compliant tonnage while squeezing margins elsewhere—a mixed bag for shipping profitability.

📈 Oil Market Backdrop: Demand Clouds Form

Oil prices are testing the low end of their range, driven by demand worries. China’s shift to alternative energy weighs on growth forecasts, and OPEC+ may boost output, risking oversupply. Geopolitical tensions haven’t jolted prices, with spare capacity cushioning supply fears. Atlantic basin crude growth supports tanker demand short-term, but gas product gains outpace liquids, tempering upside for crude carriers. Low inventories offer some stability, yet without clearer demand signals, absorbing extra supply remains a question mark. Investors might see this as a neutral-to-bearish signal for tanker reliance—watch China closely.

🚨 Outlook: A Delicate Balance

The tanker market sits on a knife-edge. VLCCs could see rate support from tight modern tonnage and shadow fleet demand, but Atlantic oversupply looms as a counterweight. Suezmax and Aframax segments need cargo volume to halt softening trends—Dar Blend’s return offers hope, though it’s tentative. Regulatory costs and sanctions may bolster compliant tonnage rates while pressuring U.S. export economics. Venezuela’s potential output drop and Russia’s restricted flows add downside risks, offset by Syria’s sanction easing and Atlantic basin growth. For shipping investors, it’s a wait-and-see moment—volatility isn’t going anywhere soon.

💬 What’s Your View?

How do you read the tanker market’s next move? Are VLCCs a buy on tightness, or is oversupply the bigger story? Drop your thoughts—let’s unpack this together!

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