The tanker market in early April 2025 blends steady rhythms with sudden jolts, shaped by regional dynamics and bold geopolitical moves. VLCCs are easing in the Middle East as cargo demand softens, yet the Atlantic keeps them afloat with solid exports. Suezmax faces headwinds from terminal disruptions and surplus ships, while Aframax thrives in the West on tight supply and Canadian crude shifts. Clean tankers—LRs, MRs, and Handymax—struggle with weak demand, especially eastward. U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan and Russian oil, Panama’s shadow fleet purge, and Iran’s Gulf seizures are reshaping trade, with fees on Chinese-built ships adding complexity. As of April 4, 2025, it’s a market of resilience and rupture, driven by global headlines.
This update unpacks VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and LR/MR/Handymax, spotlighting the events that matter. From sanctions to supply shocks, here’s a clear, engaging rundown—easy to follow, rich with insight.
⏬ VLCC Market: Eastern Drift, Western Lift
Market Trends and Earnings
Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the ocean-spanning oil haulers, are seeing earnings slip in the Middle East Gulf, settling around $36,465 per day by April 4 as mid-month cargo bookings dwindled. In the Atlantic, the story shifts—U.S. Gulf routes hold firm near $46,055/day—exporters there rely on steady demand to offset Eastern weakness. Gibsons paints a picture of a sluggish Middle East, where relet ships flooded the market, overwhelming thin April 10-20 loadings and eroding owners’ rate defenses. Jefferies notes VLCC spot averages at $45,000/day, edging past Q1’s $44,000, while Clarksons pegs eco-VLCCs at $49,200/day, showing mainstream crude still has legs.
Sanctions and Trade Shifts
U.S. tariffs of 25% on Venezuelan oil buyers, launched in late March, cut Jose port loadings—Kpler reports just 7 cargoes in March versus 15 in February—pushing more hauls across the Atlantic. President Trump’s March 31 threat of 25%-50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers adds pressure—India rejected the sanctioned Andaman Skies with 767,000 barrels, signaling tighter compliance. Panama’s April 1 move to deflag 125 sanctioned ships, including 68 tankers, shrinks the shadow fleet, redirecting cargoes to mainstream VLCCs via sales and purchases. Clarksons highlights a Q1 demand bump as India and China snapped up replacement crude—though a Pacific slowdown looms.
Geopolitical Risks and Outlook
Iran’s April 1 seizure of two tankers with 3 million liters of diesel in the Gulf raises the stakes—Ambrey warns U.S.-linked ships could face retaliation after the U.S. seized $47 million in Iranian oil proceeds. Oil firms and traders have capped rate spikes, prioritizing logistics—Gibsons sees a cycle bottom nearing, with Atlantic strength as VLCCs’ lifeline. The market’s split—West steadies, East drifts—keeps earnings balanced for now.
Oil platforms in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela
⏳ Suezmax Market: Disruption Dents, Gulf Persists
Market Performance
Suezmax tankers, mid-sized crude carriers, are under pressure, with earnings dropping to about $39,389/day by April 4, down 8 points from last week, as oversupply and setbacks hit hard. The U.S. Gulf offers relief—earnings there hover near $40,339/day—tight tonnage provides a buffer against broader declines. Jefferies tracks averages at $49,000/day, above Q1’s $39,000, while Clarksons lists eco-Suezmax at $45,700/day—yet Middle East tonnage growth darkens the horizon.
Terminal Disruptions
A big disruption struck the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)—U.S. disputes and OPEC overproduction claims shut two Suezmax berths, canceling April cargoes and cutting rates to around $54,500/day. The Middle East Gulf is stagnant—little cargo moved in early April—brokers suspect charterers are letting ships pile up to push rates lower. In the U.S. Gulf, thin supply holds firm, supported by Aframax below, though UK-Continent ballasters favor transatlantic runs, capping local gains.
Sanctions and Supply Shifts
Repsol’s Monte Serantes ditched Venezuelan crude for Mexican Maya after the U.S. revoked licenses for Eni and M&P, aligning with Chevron’s May 27 exit—Venezuela’s oil flow is shrinking. Panama’s deflagging of sanctioned tankers shifts cargoes to mainstream Suezmax, while Trump’s Russian oil tariff threat—25%-50%—looms large, with India’s Andaman Skies block showing swift adaptation. The market’s strained—CPC chaos and surplus ships drag it down, but Gulf demand keeps some hope alive.
⏱️ Aframax Market: Western Surge, Eastern Calm
Western Strength
Aframax tankers, the nimble crude movers, shine in the West—U.S. Gulf earnings hit around $65,358/day by April 4, up sharply, as tonnage dropped 50% month-on-month, tightening supply. North Sea rates rose to about $49,200/day—Jefferies sees averages at $50,000/day, far above Q1’s $32,000, with Clarksons at $47,100/day for eco-Aframax. Canada East Coast voyages spiked 67% in March, mostly to Europe, keeping tonne-miles robust and rates high.
Eastern Softening
The Mediterranean eased to roughly $56,700/day—late March’s rush faded, with ballasters and Suezmax soaking up volume. Activity has slowed, shifting focus to mid-April bookings—brokers say owners might trim rates for firm cargoes as competition grows. The CPC mess hits Suezmax more—Aframax feels little so far—but Europe’s crude import dip could temper gains.
Sanctions and Risks
India’s block of the sanctioned Andaman Skies (767,000 barrels) and Panama’s 125-ship purge boost mainstream Aframax demand. Trump’s 25%-50% Russian oil tariff talk could stretch routes—Greek owner Harry Vafias sees long-term shipping wins from trade inefficiencies. Iran’s Gulf seizures raise risks—Ambrey flags U.S.-linked Aframax as targets. The West leads—Gulf and Canada power ahead—while the East hints at a pause.
An aframax at the Trans Mountain Expansion Westridge Marine Terminal at Vancouver
⏸️ LR/MR/Handymax Market: Clean Struggles, West Sparks
Market Weakness
LR2s, the larger clean tankers, plateaued—Middle East Gulf-to-UK held under $4 million through April 4, showing no spark. LR1s stayed flat in the East, but UK-Continent runs rose to $21,739/day, up over $2,000, as ships grew scarce. MRs in the Middle East Gulf fell to around $17,512/day—U.S. Gulf settled near $25,902/day—while Handymax crashed, with Mediterranean rates down over 90 points from weak demand.
Demand and Rate Trends
Jefferies lists LR2s at $36,000/day and MRs at $29,000/day, topping Q1 figures—Ioannis Papadimitriou notes Northwest Europe loadings lifting UK-to-U.S. rates to a six-month high. Clean demand lags 2019 volumes, though tonne-miles beat it—recent softness persists, but refinery restarts and Red Sea risks could stretch voyages soon. Iran’s 3M-liter diesel seizure in the Gulf on April 1 might redirect flows over time.
Emerging Pressures
U.S. port fees on Chinese-built ships—up to $3.5M per call—have Intertanko reviewing contracts, as owners weigh U.S. runs. The clean sector’s down—Western gains flicker—but Eastern weakness pulls the mood lower for now.
January 16, 2025 - ships under construction in a yard of a shipbuilding company in Taicang, east China’s Jiangsu province
🌐 What’s Shaping It: Sanctions, Fees, and Flashpoints
Tariffs and Trade
U.S. 25% tariffs on Venezuelan/Russian oil and license cuts for Chevron and Repsol shrink exports—Atlantic tankers gain as trade pivots west. Panama’s 125-ship deflagging and India’s Russian crude block tighten compliant fleets—shadow trades fade, lifting mainstream demand. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs (April 2) rewrite maps—Greek owners like John Coustas see long-term tonne-mile wins.
Geopolitical Risks
Iran’s Gulf seizures and the U.S.’s $47M oil grab heat up tensions—Ambrey warns U.S.-linked ships could face blowback. CPC berth closures disrupt flows—tonne-miles rise, but seasonal lulls near. Chinese-built ship fees ($1M-$3.5M) loom—Clarksons predicts value gaps, MJLF sees rate hikes from chaos.
🌐 Outlook: A Market in Motion
VLCCs sit at $45,000-$49,000/day—Atlantic steadies, Middle East softens—sanctions could spark a lift. Suezmax ranges $39,000-$54,000/day—CPC stings, Gulf holds—surplus looms. Aframax spans $47,000-$65,000/day—West dominates—East may cool. Clean splits—LRs at $36,000/day, MRs at $29,000/day—West lifts, East lags.
1 Year T/C - VLCC SUEZMAX AFRAMAX ECO / SCRUBBER - April 2nd
💬 What’s Your Call?
Aframax keeping the lead, or VLCCs set to rally? Share your take—let’s dive in! 🚢
*The Worldscale (WS) rate is a system used to calculate tanker freight rates, where WS 100 represents a standard base rate for a specific route. Rates above or below this benchmark indicate how much more or less a charterer will pay relative to the base cost. A higher WS rate means better earnings for shipowners, while a lower WS rate means lower transportation costs for charterers.