From a macroeconomic valuation perspective, the #bitcoin remains undervalued, as the attached chart shows. Our cross-risk sentiment indicator summarizes data from all global asset classes. It fell only slightly in November and recovered significantly in December, although bitcoin prices fell and remained at a low level. Macro models that explain the price development of Bitcoin based on key macroeconomic factors show a strong increase in residuals. This suggests that the current weakness is not related to the macroeconomic environment.

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#bitcoin attracted inflows of USD 522 million, while short bitcoin investment products continued to record outflows totaling USD 1.8 million. This indicates a recovery in sentiment. Despite this, Bitcoin remains a relative laggard this year, with year-to-date inflows totaling USD 27.7 billion, compared to USD 41 billion in 2024.

#ethereum Bitcoin recorded inflows of USD 338 million last week, bringing year-to-date inflows to USD 13.3 billion. This represents an increase of 148% compared to 2024.

The inflows at #solana remain lower at USD 3.5 billion since the beginning of the year, but still represent a tenfold increase compared to 2024. Aave and Chainlink saw inflows of USD 5.9 million and USD 4.1 million respectively last week, while Hyperliquid saw outflows of USD 14.1 million.

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The US Federal Reserve decided this week to cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points, lowering the target range to between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. The decision was widely expected, but the internal dynamics in the Open Market Committee were more revealing. Two members voted for an unchanged monetary policy, while the dot plot showed that six central bankers did not consider a rate cut to be appropriate at this time. In its joint projection, the Fed continues to signal only one additional rate cut in 2026, yet the labor market is cooling, revisions continue to point downward, and the upcoming rotation of personnel within the Fed means that risks continue to lean towards a looser monetary policy in the medium term. The reaction of the Bitcoin price was slightly negative, as the rate cut was largely priced in and the prospect of only one possible rate cut in 2026, according to the dot plot, put additional pressure on sentiment.

Kevin Hassett is still considered the clear favorite to succeed incumbent Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He has repeatedly argued that there is considerable scope for interest rate cuts and has indicated that key interest rates below 3% are a plausible long-term target. He frames this as a growth-oriented agenda while emphasizing that the central bank must remain apolitical. Should he be appointed, and should the administration replace Lisa Cook with a similarly dovish voice, Trump appointees would dominate the Board of Governors.

(Author: James Butterfill, Head of Research)

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The recent fall in the Bitcoin price has been fueled not least by the fact that early adopters have sold large quantities of coins from long-term storage. The revived supply of coins that are more than six months old has already reached new highs and exceeded the 500 billion dollar mark for the first time. Coins in even older supply groups have also been moved in unprecedented dollar-denominated volumes, with the revived supply of coins more than three years old already surpassing the 150 billion dollar mark by the end of November.

A simple and intuitive way to recognize whether older coins are being moved in large quantities is to look at the metric Bitcoin Days Destroyed. It adds up the daily product of the number of coins moved and the number of days they have remained unchanged since their last movement. In other words: If 1000 #bitcoin are moved after standing still for 1000 days, one million Bitcoin Days are "destroyed".

Since 2017, the daily average of destroyed coin days has been slightly less than twelve million. However, during periods of high market volatility, it is not uncommon for the metric to rise to over 30 million or even higher as early adopters with large holdings dump sizable stashes of coins.

During the recent sell-off, destroyed coin days skyrocketed to over one hundred million - the second highest figure since 2017 - indicating significant selling pressure from early adopters that had a strong impact on the market. The figure has since fallen back to historically more normal levels; in the first week of December, the average was around twelve million per day. At this level, the amount of old coins coming onto the market is roughly in line with the more recent historical average. This reduces the recent excess selling pressure and a more balanced market is emerging in the short term.

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#bitcoin
#ethereum
#xrp
#solana

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Digital asset investment products saw inflows of USD 716 million for the second week in a row as sentiment continued to improve. Daily data showed small outflows on Thursday and Friday, which we believe were a reaction to macroeconomic data from the United States indicating continued inflationary pressures. Total assets under management have increased by 7.9% to USD 180 billion since the November lows, but remain well below the record USD 264 billion.

#bitcoin was the main beneficiary, recording inflows of USD 352 million, bringing year-to-date inflows to USD 27.1 billion - well below the USD 41.6 billion reached in 2024. Short Bitcoin products saw outflows of USD 18.7 million, the largest since March 2025, when these outflows coincided with a similar price decline, suggesting that exchange-traded product investors believe the current period of negative sentiment may now have bottomed out.

#xrp continued to report strong inflows, totaling USD 245 million last week and bringing year-to-date inflows to USD 3.1 billion, easily surpassing the USD 608 million reported in 2024. Chainlink also received exceptionally high inflows totaling USD 52.8 million last week - the largest ever recorded - representing more than 54% of assets under management.

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#bitcoin recorded inflows of USD 464 million last week. At the same time, investors withdrew USD 1.9 million from short Bitcoin ETPs - a clear sign that bets on prices falling further are being withdrawn. Ethereum also benefited from the improved sentiment and saw inflows of USD 309 million.

#xrp Ethereum stood out with the highest weekly inflows since records began: A total of USD 289 million flowed in, and the series over the past six weeks now represents 29 percent of total assets under management. The trend is likely to be closely linked to the recent ETF launches in the United States. #cardano In contrast, the United States recorded outflows of 19.3 million US dollars, which corresponds to 23 percent of its assets under management.

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There are signs of cautious stabilization on the crypto markets this week #bitcoin seems to have found a bottom after the cryptocurrency hit an intraday low of USD 80,553 on November 21. The subsequent recovery coincided with comments from FOMC member John Williams, who stated that there was "scope for a rate cut in the near term to move monetary policy towards a more neutral stance". In the absence of other relevant stimuli, his words appear to have been the main trigger for the improvement in sentiment.

Nevertheless, the on-chain data shows that the environment remains fragile. The largest whale group, which holds more than 100,000 Bitcoin, dumped around USD 12.3 billion last month, putting pressure on prices. Smaller whales in the 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin range have offset some of this selling, adding around USD 4.6 billion over the same period. The determined selling by the biggest players also unsettled investors in exchange-traded products, which have seen outflows of USD 5 billion over the past four weeks. However, there was a marked turnaround this week: Inflows of USD 900 million indicate that the prospect of monetary easing is being received positively.

Altcoins are conspicuously resilient

Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto markets has fallen by around 1.5 percentage points this month - an indication that the broader market has not yet capitulated. Many major altcoins have maintained their structure despite the setback. Part of the recovery can be attributed to the fact that Bitcoin was heavily oversold and momentum indicators reached levels that historically often coincided with short-term countermovements. The expectation of an interest rate cut in December is having a supportive effect, while the massive selling pressure from wallets with 50,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin appears to be easing. The popular four-year cycle narrative resurfaced during the downturn, but its statistical resilience remains low - both due to the small sample size and in light of an improved macroeconomic environment.

What is striking in this market environment is the resilience of many #altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Historically, a sell-off of this magnitude would have led to broad-based capitulation, but numerous assets held key support zones and showed relative strength in some cases. However, liquidity has thinned since October 10, increasing downside volatility and making it unlikely that markets will advance to new highs in the short term.

Between recovery and caution

Financing rates remain nervous and positioning is not yet fully adjusted, but the overall market structure is gradually improving. If expectations of interest rate cuts continue to consolidate and selling pressure from major counterparties eases, the recent period of weakness could prove to be a temporary blip rather than the start of a more pronounced downturn. At present, the markets appear to be consolidating rather than fragile. Bitcoin has absorbed extensive forced supply, altcoins are stable and last week's momentum is already losing steam. This phase of the cycle calls for ongoing reassessment rather than rigid adherence to a particular narrative. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

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The markets continue to react extremely sensitively to changes in interest rate expectations - particularly to statements from Federal Reserve officials. Comments by the President of the New York Fed, John Williams, recently led to a significant increase in the implied probability of an interest rate cut in December, after this possibility had previously been largely priced out of the market.

#bitcoin The US dollar temporarily fell below the USD 85,000 mark and market depth remains low. Structurally, traders are interpreting the recent price behavior as a possible "dead cat bounce"as Bitcoin continued its decline on Monday morning. Funding rates remain negative on some exchanges; even BitMEX, which usually moves more slowly, turned bearish over the weekend. The positioning suggests that many are bracing for the possibility of further downside.

The on-chain data also shows increasing pressure. A growing proportion of investors are now in loss positions: The proportion of supply that is in profit has fallen from close to one hundred percent at the high to around 60 percent. Realized losses in US dollars have reached record levels, underscoring the extent of the recent capitulation. Overall sentiment has deteriorated and market direction is likely to depend heavily on position adjustments until a resilient macroeconomic stimulus emerges. $BITC (-0.54%)

The markets are currently suffering from a pronounced lack of data and are effectively operating in the dark. Risk assets have pulled back across the board: The Nasdaq lost two percent over the past three trading days and Bitcoin slipped well below the USD 95,000 mark at the time of writing.

Even traditional safe havens such as gold have come under pressure, highlighting the sometimes contradictory dynamics of recent market movements. Concerns about a possible technology bubble played a role here, as did nervousness ahead of Nvidia's quarterly figures, which were published on Tuesday. At the same time, there was a noticeable reassessment of expectations for an interest rate cut in December: the probability fell from 70% to 42% within a week.

This development is surprising, especially as there have been no new statements from members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve and no relevant macroeconomic data has been published that would plausibly explain such a change.

If expectations of no interest rate cut are confirmed, this should prevent a further weakening of the US dollar and dampen liquidity on the financial markets - both of which have been key drivers of the Bitcoin price to date.

There is currently a broad-based wave of selling, with the daily realized value reaching more than USD 3 billion last week. $BITC (-0.54%)