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I find the company very exciting. The only question I have is about climate change and environmental catastrophes. Many insurers, particularly in the home insurance sector, are increasingly withdrawing from certain US states because the insurance business is no longer profitable in view of the increasing risks. Often they are not legally allowed to adjust premiums fast enough to compensate for the growing losses. For this reason, I did not delve further into the analysis and instead opted for Oscar Health in the Insurance Tech segment. How do you assess this risk?
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@Wravo This is certainly an issue, but I believe that they have good risk management, especially as they are only active in a few states so far and are only expanding very slowly. You think very carefully about which lines of business you offer in which state. And most insurers have this risk and have been able to factor it in very well so far. The AI is constantly being trained; if I have read correctly, they have a waiting list of 700,000 people in the motor vehicle sector alone and only want to roll out this line in all states by the end of 2026. They had strong headwinds after Corona and due to the higher inflation, which also caused service costs, car repairs etc. to rise very sharply, which put pressure on the margin (they had not expected this) and also made an acquisition in the automotive sector. I am very confident here and as they are still growing strongly, they can avoid some of these risks.
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@BamBamInvest Ah okay, I didn't realize they weren't active nationwide yet, if they had to pull out of a state that would put a big dent in investor sentiment, then this thing is definitely going back on the watchlist, thanks for your work :)
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•@Wravo very much so, if they can continue to scale it and roll it out in all states, as well as include other divisions, they could become really big and generate much better margins than their competitors. The automotive business is also much more profitable in the U.S. than in Austria/Germany. Customer satisfaction is also really high and well rated, claims are sometimes processed by the AI in a minute and the amount is transferred immediately. I'm really excited to see how things continue here, I really like what I've seen so far ✌️
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•@Wravo I see you're invested in a similar way to me 😁, I actually have $OSCR on my radar, but from an Austrian perspective it's not so easy to invest in U.S. stocks with the choice of brokers ( $OSCR unfortunately not yet listed in Europe), especially if you want a tax-simple broker. Flatex does that, the order fees are a bit higher, which wouldn't bother me that much, but the exchange rate and spreads are a bit too opaque, as the prices are usually displayed with a 15 minute delay. Anyway, it's already on my main watchlist, as is $KSPI 😁
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•@Wravo I think the Kazakh tange has devalued extremely against the euro, which means additional headwinds for $KSPI. In addition to the supposedly favorable valuation and exciting expansion into Turkey, the only drawback here is probably that it is a company from Kazakhstan 😁 otherwise very exciting, has also lost well, I am also thinking about it. What is your next course of action here?
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@BamBamInvest Yes, growth and a price rollercoaster, we all love that 😅😂 I've had the same problem: I paid around 3-4% in fees when I built up a position with ING, and of course there are costs again when I sell. 🫣However, I still had to strike at the valuation.
Oscar is both the price leader and the leader in user experience. The only major risk I see is the repeal of Obamacare. However, if there's one thing we've learned in recent years, it's that family and loyalty are top priorities for Trump. Co-founder Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. In addition, repealing Obamacare will probably not be Trump's priority in the first two years. After the midterms, he will hardly be able to push it through anyway. I also strongly expect a Democrat to take office again in 2028.
Although this political risk is real, in my opinion it in no way justifies this steep valuation discount.
Oscar is both the price leader and the leader in user experience. The only major risk I see is the repeal of Obamacare. However, if there's one thing we've learned in recent years, it's that family and loyalty are top priorities for Trump. Co-founder Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. In addition, repealing Obamacare will probably not be Trump's priority in the first two years. After the midterms, he will hardly be able to push it through anyway. I also strongly expect a Democrat to take office again in 2028.
Although this political risk is real, in my opinion it in no way justifies this steep valuation discount.
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@BamBamInvest I find Kazpi really exciting, the management is awesome and I love the concept of a super app. $GRAB was also in my portfolio for a long time. To be honest, though, I probably spend far too much time on the company itself and far too little on the Kazakh economy. 🫣With such a monopoly position, you should actually do that.
In the end, I look at the growth every quarter and deduct the current inflation. As long as this figure remains positive, I'm relaxed about the current valuation for the time being. I also use BIT Capital as an indicator (if you don't know them yet, I think their reports are a must for our strategy) Kazpi is one of their biggest positions.
Of course, that alone is not enough to justify a full position. That's why I'm slowly building up the share via savings plans and observing how the expansion outside Kazakhstan is going. Will the Turkish lira get any better? Let's see. 😬😅But overall, I don't think Kazpi is a bad diversification opportunity at the moment. It's rare to find such a large company that is completely independent of Donald Trump's machinations.
In the end, I look at the growth every quarter and deduct the current inflation. As long as this figure remains positive, I'm relaxed about the current valuation for the time being. I also use BIT Capital as an indicator (if you don't know them yet, I think their reports are a must for our strategy) Kazpi is one of their biggest positions.
Of course, that alone is not enough to justify a full position. That's why I'm slowly building up the share via savings plans and observing how the expansion outside Kazakhstan is going. Will the Turkish lira get any better? Let's see. 😬😅But overall, I don't think Kazpi is a bad diversification opportunity at the moment. It's rare to find such a large company that is completely independent of Donald Trump's machinations.
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@Wravo thanks for the additional information, yes at $KSPI the valuation has been low for a long time and not without reason, people are just cautious about Kazakhstan, that probably won't change so quickly either, I'm curious to see how things will continue here. 👍 decent costs of 3-4 % 😂 it's still cheap for me. I'll wait and see, at some point they'll be listed here in Europe too.
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@Wravo Yes, currency fluctuations, political uncertainty and the economy are a real issue. I also like the concept of the super app, like $KSPI, $700 and hopefully $SOFI at some point in the financial sector. Yes, of course I know Bit Kapital, I recently came across it through a YouTube video and saw that the position is similar to mine 😂. However, I can't quite understand $HFG, $CVNA and $AG1. I don't really like the automotive sector, I don't think you need to be invested in it and the margins are really bad in the delivery service. I'd rather take $UBER and probably combine all sectors at once in the future 😁. But yes, it's also worth browsing there when selecting companies. $DLO $DUOL is also exciting but has already performed very well and is usually only tradable in the US.
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@BamBamInvest Yes, whether that will ever change at $KSPI is the question, but it's a rising dividend valuation that I'm happy to wait a while on :). I honestly don't believe that the concept of a complete superapp across sectors would work in the US either, as you say I think we'll see a financial superapp at $SOFI, a health superapp at $HIMS and as for $UBER, I think we'll see $GOOGL Maps as a mobility superapp in the long run. Yes $HFG I don't quite understand either and I'm completely with you on the car sector, my exception was BYD but I didn't want anything more to do with this weird stock split 😅
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