In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (-7,34%)
Intel $INTC (-10,29%)
Salesforce $CRM (-3,92%)
Alphabet $GOOG (-1,46%) and Meta $META (-3,97%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-9,14%)
Macy's $M (+0,7%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (-2,14%) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-5,21%)
and AT&T $T (-6,1%) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (-1,79%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (-6,2%)
or Xylem $XYL (-4,46%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (+6,33%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-6,4%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-6,72%) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-6,78%)

or Teladoc $TDOC (-6,25%) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-10,52%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-5,26%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (-7,44%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (-4,51%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (-9,39%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

Out with the critters and into the $HMWO (-5,09%)

All securities have been sold:

• Blackrock $BLK (-7,16%) (729€)
• Palantir $PLTR (-10,99%) (24€)
• Xylem $XYL (-4,46%) (121€)
• Automatic Data Processing $ADP (-4,6%) (219€)
• Visa $V (-6,1%) (249€)
• Nvidia $NVDA (-7,44%) (118€)
• Parker Hannifin $PH (-6,17%) (476€)
• Broadcom $AVGO (-3,52%) (162€)
• Ferrari $RACE (-2,59%) (394€)
• Allianz $ALV (-6,4%) (262€)
• Mutares $MUX (-8,19%) (35€)

Reason: Due to time constraints away from individual stocks and towards ETFs

Easier said than done: You have put time and effort into the analysis and have gone through ups and downs with them.

It's hard for me, but well, it doesn't help

My foray into water shares has so far been a good idea that I will continue to pursue

Severn Trent $SVT (-4,37%) has increased its dividend to shareholders after profits rose by a fifth last year, despite the company's wastewater pollution rising by a third in 2023.

The FTSE-listed company, which supplies water to much of Wales and the West of England, increased its final dividend by 9% to 70.1p a share, while profits rose to £201.3m.

I've got my water goods basket

out $AWK (-2,82%)
$XYL (-4,46%) and just $SVT (-4,37%) started to build it up. I'll keep at it

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/severn-trent-hikes-dividend-despite-081605635.html

Small addendum

The industry regulator Ofwat will meet soon to decide on the increase in draft legislation between 2025 and 2030. The draft proposals are due to be announced on June 12.

Severn Trent wants to invest 12.9 billion pounds and increase customer bills by 35.7 percent.

Between 2020 and 2025 the average annual bill for Severn Trent was £402.63, for the next five years the average would be £546.35 if Ofwat's business plan is accepted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0dem8v7epzo

Hello Community,

thank you for your great response to my last post Sin Stocks - Stocks that are considered sin sin. Today I would like to share another controversial article with you:

How do I profit from climate change?

Climate change is being talked about like a pig in practically all the traditional media, especially in Germany. I'm less interested in hyping up the next apocalypse than in taking a rational view: what megatrends are emerging and how can I invest in these trends?

To keep things interesting for you, I won't be writing the usual blah blah blah about renewable energies, electric cars, hydrogen and so on. You're probably already familiar with that. I'm also interested in stocks that might only be interesting at second glance and shouldn't be found in every 08/15 portfolio.

Before we get started, one more request: let's stay on topic and talk about shares. In my opinion, moral or political discussions have no added value if no investment can be derived from them.

Impact 1: Increase in natural disasters and extreme weather

The hurricanes in the USA, the flood disaster in Arthal... each of you will be aware of one event. There is no doubt that natural disasters can cause enormous damage. The task of the next few decades will probably be to make buildings more resilient, to make cities more resilient and so on. However, the buildings that are already standing do not (yet) meet these requirements. Therefore, the first share is:

$CAT (-4,89%) Caterpillar.

With their construction machinery and clearing vehicles, they can clear up what has been destroyed. Our colleague @TheOrangeExcavator recently wrote a nice introduction to this share here on the platform.

Then, of course, there is insurance, as the need to insure against such events will increase. The insurance business model is based on calculating risks and then setting a price. If the risks increase, the price rises - and so does the need for insurance.

$MUV2 (-5,96%) Munich Re has been able to increase its profits by over 20% p.a. in the last 5 years. In addition, there is a dividend yield of around 3.3%, which is constantly being increased. The share is currently performing well - in my view, something for the watchlist.

Much more exciting from my point of view are "shovel manufacturers" for insurance companies. I am talking, for example, about $VRSK (-5,11%) Verisk Analytics, which specializes in data analysis for insurance companies (and increasingly other industries). They either create analyses for their customers or offer their analysis tools for independent analyses.

Why take the risk of a single insurance company when you can rely on the supplier in the background? Cash flow and profit have been growing at double-digit rates p.a. for 5 years. Sales growth is estimated at 7.5 %. All this with high sales stability. Very interesting growth stock from my point of view, which could be picked up in the next correction.

Impact 2: Rise in sea level

Sea levels are expected to rise by up to 1.1 meters by 2100. Mega construction projects are needed to protect against this. Here I have (how could it be otherwise) a Dutch company on my radar: $ARCAD (-5,67%) Arcadis. The company offers planning and technical development services for construction and infrastructure projects. This is not a pure play on sea level rise - they do many projects, such as environmental remediation, mobility projects and management consulting.

Sales growth >8 % in the last 5 years, profit growth of approx. 15 % p.a. in the last 5 years speak for themselves.

It has also just performed quite well, certainly something for the watchlist. If interest rates fall again and the scope for investment increases again, this share will certainly also benefit.

Impact 3: Water shortage and drought

Sea levels are rising - and water is becoming scarce? No contradiction! We are talking about fresh water/drinking water.

In my view, the most interesting value here is $XYL (-4,46%) Xylem. They offer a wide range of water-related technologies: Transportation, testing, wastewater treatment, purification and, and, and.

Sales growth >10% in the last 5 years, estimated earnings growth of 11%. It has also just performed well, with a P/E ratio of 25 I would consider buying in. The share always comes back well.

A look at water utilities could also be worthwhile, for example $AWK (-2,82%) American Water Works. I presented the share in a post-buy article of mine - if you are interested, you can find more about the company there.

If you want a more exotic stock, you can take a look at the $TORO Toro Company. The company offers irrigation systems for agriculture, golf courses and sports fields, among other things. The less water there is, the more efficiently it has to be distributed. They are also active in "snow and ice management". Could also become more relevant in winter with increasing extreme weather events. Sales growth of over 8% p.a. in the last 5 years, profit growth of 6%. Plus a dividend of 1.6%. Currently quoted below the historical P/E ratio.

Impact 4: Changing biodiversity

How can seeds be adapted to the changing climate as a source of food for humanity? Monsanto used to be a company in this field - now part of Bayer. From my point of view, it's a collection of powder kegs that regularly blow up.

But there is also a pure play alternative: $CTVA (-8,38%) Corteva.

They produce seeds, pesticides, fungicides, etc. The key figures are somewhat mixed, but in my view it is an exciting candidate for the watch list. The business could gain more and more momentum due to climate change.

It is also becoming increasingly important to get as much as possible out of existing crops. Here I myself have $DE (-3,38%) Deere in my portfolio.

Sales growth over 5 years: 9.3 % p.a., profit growth 30.7 % p.a. in the last 5 years. P/E ratio of 12 (!).

Top dog in its field. Some also see the share as an AI investment, as they are producing increasingly intelligent machines for agriculture. Smaller farmers will probably increasingly reach their limits, it will consolidate, as only "the big players" can secure the top technologies.

Due to a certain cyclicality, I have the share (currently the only one) in my savings plan.

Impact 5: Social unrest and migration

It cannot be ruled out that new causes of war over fertile soil, drinking water etc. will emerge in the future. The big players such as $LMT (-3,76%) Lockheed or $BA. (-7,9%) BAE should be familiar to most people. Less well known is probably the $KOG (-12,09%) Kongsberg Group from Norway. Its main segments are Defense Aerospace and Maritime. Double-digit sales growth, even stronger profit growth.

Unfortunately, this can also be seen in the chart. Probably too expensive due to the current crises - but in my view the share should be kept on the radar alongside the well-known stocks.

That was my presentation of some investment cases. Even if some of them seem expensive at the moment, I think it makes sense to create a watchlist of interesting candidates at an early stage. When things go wrong, you know what's on your shopping list. Then you can get into companies that should have a tailwind in the long term.

Now it's up to you:

- What (perhaps indirect) effects do you see from climate change?

- Which shares do you think could benefit from climate change?

- Which shares do you already have in your portfolio?

I look forward to your comments.

Fun fact: When I asked my girlfriend (not really interested in shares) about possible profiteers, her timid answer was: "Manufacturers of umbrellas?" But I hadn't found a pure player, so there was nothing in the article 😉

You never stop learning.

Your Money Man

Well, the money can only evaporate or run away when I go to the water 😅

Together with $SVT (-4,37%) 2 glasses of water poured into the depot.

So water, wind and earth in the depot 😅

What would be an idea for fire? 🤣 Then I would have the following elements in the depot

$XYL (-4,46%) New in the depot 😄😅

Hello dear community,

In view of the fact that there are now a lot of newcomers on the platform, I've created a graphic, typical of social media, to give you an overview of stocks that not everyone may have on their radar. It goes without saying that you can't know your way around every sector. But we have come together here in the community for a solid exchange.

But since we're here on Getquin and not on Instagram, here's some input for the inquisitive.

What do the companies do anyway?

Service providers:

On the service provider side, there are some rather atypical companies for the sector.

Here I have Friedrich Vorwerk $VH2 (-15,51%) Vinci $DG (-4,74%) , Ferrovial $FER , Bilfinger $GBF (-9,39%) and Jacobs Solutions $J (-5,14%) are listed here.

Their main focus is the background work on the properties themselves. They support the companies in planning, realization, construction and maintenance. They work decentrally in regional working groups to cover the breadth of the industry. They offer almost every service for an industrial company.

The established elite

If you want to invest in the hydrogen sector, all roads lead to the giants Linde $LIN (-5,11%) Air Products $APD (-6,03%) and Air Liquide $AI (-0,58%) . Their market power in the field of industrial gases and in today's market environment of commercial hydrogen production seems irrefutable. Their know-how in the gaseous material production segment has been tried and tested for decades and the processes are almost perfectly optimized. Each company also has its own engineering divisions, making them perfectly positioned for the future in electrolyzer development.

The established newcomers

With plenty of money in their pockets, the oil companies Shell $SHEL (-7,1%) Total $TTE (-6,96%) and BP $BP. (-9,3%) are also entering the segment. Oil is finite, but the business should not be. These companies are also experienced in dealing with hydrogen. Hydrogen is an essential component in the refinery process. In order to become less dependent on the big 3, new market areas are also being explored here. Will they be able to prove themselves?

Speculative titles

Never anything but expenses. Years of hype and yet a harsh reality hit the small fish in the shark tank surrounding the segment. Nel $NEL (-4,15%) Plug Power $PLUG (-1,64%) and Ballard $BLDP (-1,85%) are long-suffering. They have never been able to deliver even remotely profitable figures. On the contrary, things seem to be getting worse quarter after quarter. Only turnover is increasing. Can that ever be good?

Plant engineering and equipment

Of course, in a globalized world, you no longer take care of the entire value chain from A-Z. Every company specializes in its own segment. The long-term beneficiaries of the industry are therefore the equipment suppliers, because they have to develop the technical foundations for every innovation in order to survive in the vastness of globalization.

The plant manufacturers

They manufacture the physical parts for the process plants.

Examples of this are Voestalpine $VOE (-5,77%) , Atlas Copco $ATCO B or Sulzer $SUNE .

The suppliers

The transportation of substances is also part of this. Material transport in industry, but also at home, for example in water pipes, is ensured by pumps (for liquids) or compressors (for gases). Established brands here are KSB $KSB (-6,62%) , Xylem $XYL (-4,46%) , Gorrman-Rupp $GRC (-4,89%) but also as a complete supplier Chart Industries $GTLS (-8,5%) or SKF $SKF B (-6,61%) or for specialized tools Stanley B&D $SWK (-4,45%) .

Process control is also indispensable. Brands such as Siemens $SIE (-7,06%) ABB $ABBN (-3,71%) or Rockwell $ROK (-4,6%) and Parker $PH (-6,17%) have established themselves here. They not only supply the electronic equipment for the process systems. They also offer their software services as safety services so that safety in process control can always be guaranteed.

I hope I have given you a little insight into the industry and would be delighted to receive constructive feedback.

#wasserstoff
#h2
#hydrogen