It doesn't stop, are any of you still actively buying $PHAG (-0,58%) ?

$PHAG (-0,58%) Silver reached a record high yesterday.

Shortage of raw materials meets industrial demand and empty inventories. A hot combination. The gold-silver ratio suggests that prices will rise sharply. Currently my game changer.

What do you think?

Reading time: approx. 10 minutes

Many shares have performed very well recently. But where there has been nothing but upward movement for a long time, there will also be setbacks at some point. The market is currently reacting sensitively - even minor news leads to significant movements. One example is the recent concerns about the credit quality of smaller US regional banks, which triggered noticeable price losses yesterday and today.

This also raises the question of whether commodities could play a greater role again in the future - not as a substitute, but as part of a broader diversification. Especially in phases when stock markets react nervously, commodities can provide a tactical counterweight. This consideration gave rise to the idea of trading them systematically - not through emotion, but through rules.

The inspiration came from a natural gas trade that @Epi had presented. It was less exciting because of the result than because of the underlying dynamics. How can something like this be mapped using rules? When does momentum arise, when is a trend sustainable - and when does it end?

This is how the commodity rotation approach came about - an attempt to understand the movements of the commodity markets with technical discipline. The approach consistently relies on momentum: it does not aim to guess the bottom, but to accompany the strength. I have not yet tried it out in practice. But the structure is in place and it shows how a tactical, signal-based commodity approach can be constructed.

Commodities rarely move evenly. They move in waves, driven by demand, inventories, politics and currency. These movements are hardly predictable - but they are measurable. The approach therefore views the market as a rotating playing field: energy, metals, agriculture - capital constantly moves between these segments. The aim is not to predict where the next impulse will come from, but to invest where the trend is already visible. Only the strongest commodity counts - the rest is left out.

The universe comprises nine liquid underlying ETFs that can be traded via WisdomTree. Each represents its own cycle, together they form the entire spectrum of the global commodities market:

• $PHGP (+0,18%) (Gold) - anchor of stability during periods of high uncertainty, typical counterbalance to risk assets.
• $PHAG (-0,58%) (Silver) - more volatile than gold, with an industrial component, strong in bull phases.
• $CRUD (-1,11%) (WTI oil) - central energy source, sensitive to OPEC policy and the economy.
• $NGAS (+5,33%) (Natural gas) - highly volatile, weather and storage-driven, with high momentum in bottleneck phases.
• $COPA (+1,05%) (copper) - leading indicator of the global economy, benefits from electrification and infrastructure.
• $PHPT (-7,23%) (Platinum) - Precious metal with industrial significance, for example in the automotive and hydrogen industries.
• $WEAT (-1,72%) (Wheat) - cyclical and weather-dependent, represents the agricultural sector.
• $CORN (-0,93%) (Corn) - basic raw material for food and energy production, often parallel to oil and agricultural trends.
• $COFF (+1,11%) (Coffee) - seasonal market with strong price fluctuations, influenced by climate and currencies.

Energy, industry, precious metals and agriculture are thus fully covered - without overlaps, but with sufficient breadth to make rotation visible.

The approach follows a fixed process that is reviewed weekly. A commodity is only included if its six-month performance is positive. It is only considered eligible for activation above one percent. This is followed by the trend check: the price must be above the GD50 and the short-term average (GD20) must exceed the GD50. Only then is the trend considered confirmed. The RSI serves as a control variable. Values between 50 and 70 signal stability, above 75 overheating, below 40 weakness. If the RSI rises too sharply or falls significantly, the approach reacts automatically: overheated movements are reduced, broken trends are sold.

The strength of the trend determines the leverage. If the six-month performance is over 10 %, a triple-leveraged ETF may be used. Between 5 % and 10 %, the 2× variant is used. Below this, the basic ETF is traded - the risk increases with the strength of the trend, not with your gut feeling.

The loss limitation is also clearly regulated. With the 1× variant, the exit takes place at a loss of more than 5 %, with 2× from 10 %, with 3× from 15 %. This means that the maximum risk per position remains constant. Profit protection takes place in two stages. If the RSI rises above 75 or the price falls below the GD50, half of the position is sold, while the rest continues to run as long as the long-term trend (GD50 > GD200) remains intact. If the price falls below GD200, the entire position is sold.

All signals are re-evaluated on a weekly basis. If another commodity outperforms in the ranking, an exit is also made - the position is rotated. The approach never holds more than one position at a time.

For a better overview, the rules can also be summarized in a condensed form:

• Momentum: Only active commodities with a positive six-month performance (> 1 %).
• Trend structure: Price > GD50 and GD20 > GD50 as a prerequisite for long signals.
• RSI filter: Entry only at 50 < RSI < 70; above 75 partial sell, below 40 sell.
• Leverage control: performance > 10 % → 3× ETF; 5-10 % → 2× ETF; < 5 % → basis.
• Stop loss: - 5 % (1×), - 10 % (2×), - 15 % (3×).
• Take profit 1: RSI > 75 or price < GD50 → 50 % Verkauf, Rest halten bei GD50 > GD200.
• Take profit 2: Price < GD200 → complete sell.
• Rotation: Weekly re-evaluation - in the event of a stronger commodity or violation of one of the rules → exit and switch.

This summary shows that the approach does not rely on intuition, but on clear, repeatable decision-making logic. It is not about the perfect forecast, but about reacting consistently - that is the core of every momentum strategy.

It is easy to see how this works in practice. Climbs $CRUD (-1,11%) rises to a six-month performance of +12 %, GD20 > GD50, RSI = 63, the entry is made via the 3× ETF. If the RSI later rises above 75, half is sold. If the price falls below GD200, the complete exit follows. Or: If another commodity in the weekly ranking, such as $COPA (+1,05%) (copper), provides stronger signals, a switch is also made. In this way, the approach remains flexible, but consistently rule-based.

The commodity rotation approach is not a rigid trading system, but an attempt to bring structure to the volatility of the commodity markets. It defines when an entry is justified, how much leverage is allowed, when profits should be secured and when to consistently exit - be it through a trend break or through relative weakness compared to the rest of the universe.

I have not yet put this approach into practice. But developments have already shown how helpful it can be to replace emotions with rules. Whether it proves itself in practice remains to be seen.

What do you think of the approach?

Are raw materials missing - or could some be removed?

What do you think of the rules - are they plausible?

Let's discuss this idea.

After the long on gold reached 100% yesterday, I decided today to add another long on silver to the portfolio as part of the hedge...

Due to the low supply of silver, I still see significantly higher prices beyond € 70/80

What are your price targets for silver and gold? ✌️

$PHAG (-0,58%)
$SSLN (-0,62%)
$3LSI (+5,09%)

Hello,

Today the silver warrant had to go...

My first trade on precious metals with a holding period of approx. 2 months has more than satisfied me. The long OS on gold posted a few days ago is of course still running. I also need cash, firstly because savings plans are running at the beginning of the month and because:

A personal question, most of you here are a bit older, so I wanted to ask you how much your driver's license cost in your day 😅 I'm currently getting bills from the driving school almost every week, so I don't have that much cash to invest... A compulsory lesson (45 min) at my driving school costs €83 🤯 If there's a listed driving school, then bring it on 😉 Currently, €3000 is the minimum for a driver's license. My grandpa and my parents gave me €3000 for my driver's license so that I would have the motivation to pass everything the first time. I have to pay for anything over €3000 myself, which is not a big problem now because of the size of the deposit, but it should serve as motivation. I believe that investing in a driver's license is much more beneficial than investing in any stock or crypto ✌️ What do you think? Would you do the same? And how many euros, or for some here probably even DM 🤭, did you spend on your driver's license? Lg

$SSLN (-0,62%)
$PHAG (-0,58%)
$4GLD (+0,2%)
$GLDA (+0,25%)
$IGLN (+0,35%)

The recent rally in gold ($GOLD ) and silver ($PHAG (-0,58%) ) continued on Monday. The prices of both precious metals benefited in particular from hopes of falling key interest rates in the US. Gold and silver do not yield any market interest, which means that they will become more attractive than fixed-interest securities or overnight money in the event of an easing of US monetary policy.

The price of a troy ounce of gold (approx. 31.1 grams) rose to just under USD 3,490 at the start of the week. This was only a good 10 dollars short of the record high of around 3,500 dollars reached at the end of April. Most recently, the daily gains melted away somewhat to just under 3,472 dollars. In euro terms, gold is currently trading at 2,963 euros. The high of almost 3,036 euros reached in April is also within sight.

As can be seen from futures contracts on the money market, the market is expecting a probability of almost 90 percent that the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates at its next meeting on September 17. One of the main reasons for this is the weak labor market data for July. If this trend is confirmed in the August data due on Friday, this would be a further argument for a rate cut in just over two weeks' time.

Gold is also benefiting from its status as a relatively safe haven in politically uncertain times. On the one hand, the unabated Russian war of aggression against Ukraine is prompting investors to turn to the precious metal.

On the other hand, investors are also concerned about the political independence of the US Federal Reserve, which not only has to keep an eye on the labor market, but also on the consequences of customs policy for inflation. President Donald Trump is considered a vehement advocate of lower interest rates and has recently increased the pressure on the central bank by seeking the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook is currently taking legal action against her dismissal.

Lower interest rates make investments and loans cheaper and should therefore boost the economy. This in turn should also benefit silver, which is considered an industrial metal to a greater extent than gold. In this environment, the price of silver rose above USD 40 per ounce for the first time since 2011.

Silver and gold prices have roughly doubled in the last three years. In recent months in particular, the fact that the dollar has lost value against other major currencies due to speculation about falling US interest rates has also played a role. As a result, precious metals denominated in dollars have become cheaper for investors outside the dollar zone.

Demand for gold is also currently being driven by private investors' need for a broad diversification of their investments. As a result, securities backed by the precious metal are increasingly being purchased.

Strategist Charu Chanana Saxo Capital Markets also believes that the prices of gold and silver are currently supported by the charts. Gold has overcome resistance at 3,450 dollars and silver has broken through the round and therefore psychologically important 40 dollar mark. This has attracted buyers who assume that the strong price rises are likely to continue for the time being.

YTD return:

🥇 Gold: ≈ +39.1 %

🥈 Silver: ≈ +24.7 %

🥉 Copper: ≈ +20.6 %

⚗️ Palladium: ≈ +34.5 %

💎 Platinum: ≈ +45.4 %

🥇Gold:

📈Chart technicals: The uptrend is running in a clean rising weekly channel.

The all-time high at 3 500 $/oz (22 Apr.) is intact; setbacks to the 50-day EMA (~3 300 $) were absorbed each time.

Primary support zone: 3 200 - 3 100 $ - the previous breakout level. RSI > 60 confirms bullish momentum.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Central bank buying.

In 2025, the official sector is again targeting ≈ 1,000 t - the 4th year in a row of massive purchases, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.

🥈Silver:

📈Chart technicals:

Despite +25% YTD, the price is still ~30% below the historic peak of $49. The multi-decade cup-and-handle formation is approaching the neckline at 36 - 37 $; a significant weekly close above it could activate a target above 75 $. Short-term supports: $34.8 (May breakout level) and $32.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Supply deficit.

The World Silver Survey reports a shortfall of 149 Moz in 2024; a further 118 Moz is expected in 2025 - largely due to solar and e-mobility demand, while 70% of production is by-product.

🥉Copper:

📈Chart technicals:

On July 8, the "blue-sky breakout" to 12 526 $/t (5.68 $/lb) took place. Volume spike and weekly RSI > 70 confirm strength. The former top band 10 500 - 10 800 $/t now serves as key support; a retest to ~11 000 $ would be technically sound without breaking the uptrend.

ℹ️Fundamental driver no. 1: Structural scarcity.

UNCTAD warns: By 2030, around 80 new mines and $ 250 bn CapEx would be needed to meet demand from the energy transition, data centers and e-mobility - otherwise the market deficit will persist.

This is where I am currently positioned:

🥇Gold:

$EWG2 (+0,45%)

$IGLN (+0,35%)

$SPGP (+0,68%)

$GDXJ (-0,97%)

$BTO (-0,67%)

$FF (+3,69%)

🥈Silver:

$PHAG (-0,58%)

$FR (-3,46%)

🥉Copper:

$COPA (+1,05%)

$HBM (+0,09%)

$ATYM (+5,19%)

❓Do you see a continuation of the bull market in metals and are you positioned accordingly?