Heyho dear Getquin Community,

I have two three amateurish questions.

I've been saving €100 a month for a good two years now. $VWCE (-4,14%) (I'm a student, so the savings rate isn't too high - but it should be increased gradually over an investment horizon of 40 years)

Now, as suggested in some of the posts here, I would invest 15-20% each in gold $BTC (+1,67%) and gold.

Here I have now repeatedly $WGLD (-2,17%) and $IGLN (-2,36%) How do the two colleagues differ and which of the two would you recommend and why?

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(I save the ETF via ING, but I can't invest in Bitcoin or gold here, so I would have to do this separately via Scalable. But a custody account transfer for one ETF would be nonsense, wouldn't it?)

My son is just graduating from high school and wants to go to university. The difficult question now is how he can invest his reserves (gifts of money, prize money, jobs) sensibly for the next few years.

He knows a little about the stock markets and has already gained some experience with precious metals and crypto. So he knows that the markets can fluctuate considerably.

Saving for retirement interests him just as little as the stock market or money in general. He looks at his portfolio from time to time, but doesn't want to worry about it. First of all, he wants to concentrate on his education and his studies. That's what he needs his savings for in the next few years (apartment, travel, equipment). I currently have his custody account with Zero in my name, but when he turns 18 he'll get it transferred.

His risk profile is somewhat special:

1. he doesn't want equity ETFs because of the medium-term volatility. He wants to be able to use the reserves at any time. If he needs the money in 2-3 years' time, he doesn't want such an ETF to be 50% under water.

2. he is also not interested in bond ETFs, as he does not want to grant loans in the current geopolitical situation. Moreover, the distributions would be peanuts given the size of his portfolio.

3. money market ETFs are more interesting because of the low risk, but only yield minimal interest. It should be a little more.

4. gold and Bitcoin are attractive because they tend to stand for security in uncertain times. BTC is also cool. However, both are also volatile.

5. he wants a maximum of 10% risk, but also the chance of >5% returns over the next few years.

So the profile is: low risk. Short-term availability, but still a return above the overnight interest rate.

My proposed solution, which he has accepted for the time being:

80% $XEON (-0,01%)

10% $IGLN (-2,36%)

10% $WBIT (+2,35%)

So that's 80% safe liquidity. 10% risk/return with BTC and 10% security with gold (annual rebalancing). The volas of gold and BTC should balance each other out so that the influence on the overall vola of the portfolio is as low as possible. A short backtest since 2018 has shown an annual return of approx. 10% with a max drawdown of approx. 10%. Whether this will work out in the future is of course unknown, but the portfolio has obviously survived the sharp drawdowns of BTC well.

What do you think of this - admittedly unconventional - concept? Does it make sense under the given circumstances? Have I missed something? I would be interested to hear your views.

Your Epi

Since gold broke above its previous high from 2020 at the beginning of 2024, it has been soaring.

Major banks have made massive purchases - a clear indication of growing institutional confidence, but also growing skepticism on the market.

📌Historical perspective: inflation and precious metals

Historically, gold and silver have performed particularly well in times of high inflation. While paper money loses value, precious metals traditionally offer security and value retention.

👉 The historical price ratio between gold and silver is also interesting.

Historically, this ratio has usually fluctuated between 15:1 and 80:1, currently it is in the higher range (approx. 89)which suggests that silver has the potential to catch up in the long term.

🆘Gold & silver in stagflation

In stagflation scenarios - economic stagnation combined with high inflation - precious metals have performed above average in the past.

👉 During the stagflation in the USA in the 1970s, the price of gold exploded from around 35 to around USD 850 per ounce.

Currently, many experts see a possible stagflation emerging again, triggered by high national debt, geopolitical tensions and a fragile economic situation.

This could be a catalyst for further price increases in precious metals.

📈Bull market 2025 and beyond?

Fundamentally, there are many reasons for a continuation of the bull market in gold and silver:

• 🪖 Persistent geopolitical uncertainties
• 🆘 Possible stagflation in the USA and Europe
• 📉 High government debt and expansionary monetary policy
• ☀️ Particularly for silver: strong growth in industrial demand from electronics, solar energy and electromobility

The main arguments against this are possible interest rate cuts or a surprisingly strong economic recovery, which could lure investors back into risk assets.

👇 In the following sections, we will now take a look at the charts.

If you are not familiar with chart technology, it is best to skip straight to the conclusion at the bottom

📌 Gold chart

☕Cup-and-handle formation

A cup-and-handle formation is a bullish (positive) chart pattern that often develops over several years. It resembles a cup with a handle and often signals a long-term trend reversal to the upside.

The formation consists of:

Cup: A long, u-shaped recovery that occurs after a sharp price rise and subsequent correction.

Handle: A shorter correction phase after the recovery before the price finally breaks out and ideally starts a long-term bull market.

👉 From 2011 to 2024, gold formed a clear cup-and-handle formation. (Cup: 2011 to 2020 - Handle: 2020 to 2024)

The most recent breakout from this formation in March 2024 could mark the start of a new long-term bull market.

📌 Silver chart

🧐 It is worth taking a long-term look at silver since 1960:

• Silver reached a spectacular high in 1980
• A new high was only just reached in 2011

📈 Silver is currently approaching this all-time high again.

A long-term cup-and-handle formation can also be seen here:

• Cup: 1980 to 2011
• Handle: 2011 to today (possibly completed soon)

👉 Technically, silver may be on the verge of a possible long-term breakout, which is extremely exciting.

📌 Conclusion

I currently see strong arguments for investing in gold and silver in the fundamental data and the technical charts.

Yesterday (18.03.2025) I increased my silver position in $PHAG (-6,21%) in order to benefit from a potential rally.

I have to say that my investment horizon for gold and silver is very long (20+ years), as I consider precious metals to be the cornerstone of my portfolio.

This is the current composition of my precious metal portfolio:

• GOLD:
  $EWG2 (+0%) , $IGLN (-2,36%) (3.75% of my portfolio)
• SILVER:
  $PHAG (-6,21%) (2.40% of my portfolio)
• Gold mining ETFs:
  $SPGP (-7,64%) , $GDXJ (-8,3%) (1.92% of my portfolio)
• Individual shares (very speculative):
  $BTO (-8,28%) , $FF (-4,27%) , $FR (-12,61%) (< 1% of my portfolio)

Do you have gold and silver in your portfolio?

If so, what is your weighting?

You might also be interested:

🆘 Crash-Warnsignale & die beste Strategie: Was sagt uns die Vergangenheit?

📈 When in Doubt, Zoom Out – Chart-Tipps für Langfrist-Investoren

#gold
#silber
#edelmetalle

$IGLN (-2,36%) Hello everyone! Is this gold ETC tax-free?

A1KWPQ

I am currently saving the $IGLN (-2,36%) and am looking for an alternative in EUR currency that can also be traded at TR. Can you recommend something?

Hi Community,

I am in the process of restructuring my portfolio of around €120k and adjusting the savings plans accordingly - I would like to hear your opinion on this and use the swarm intelligence. My target portfolio should look like this in a few months, the savings plans should be adjusted and probably rebalanced 1x-2x per year:

• 42.5% MSCI World $IWDA (-4,14%)
• 42.5% S&P500 $XSXD (-3,95%)
• 10% gold $IGLN (-2,36%)
• 5% BTC $BTC (+1,67%)

Briefly about me: investment horizon 30+ years, prefer distributing ETFs from a tax perspective (Austria), am already diversified across investments with bonds and a property

The clump in the USA is quite intentional - the majority of US companies in the indices operate worldwide, which is of similar importance to me as the location of the companies. I deliberately decided against an emerging market ETF because I have confidence in the developed countries and do not foresee the USA losing its supremacy in the distant future.

Would you share this view or change it (e.g. leave out the S&P500 and put 85% in the World?)?

Good or bad decision, what do you think?

I have now decided to invest part of my nest egg in gold (it was actually 80 units = 50+30)

I hope that the momentum in gold will continue and that I will get a higher return than the current 2.75% overnight interest rate. (I am of course aware that this is more risky)

$IGLN (-2,36%)
$EWG2 (+0%)