$BTC (-0,99%) remained below $65,000 for six weeks before the futures market sparked new momentum. The catalyst was a plan announced by the U.S. Treasury on August 19 to double its repurchases of long-term Treasury bonds. According to CoinGlass, the ensuing price movement led to the liquidation of nearly $2.7 billion in crypto short positions within 24 hours—the largest forced unwinding of bearish bets since records began in 2021.

When short positions are liquidated, exchanges automatically buy back the asset to close the position. This creates additional buying pressure. Short liquidations exceeded long liquidations by more than tenfold and helped #bitcointhe price to break out of its trading range by over 20 percent.

U.S.-listed $BTC (-0,99%)ETFs supported the rally. Last week, they saw inflows of approximately $1.92 billion, the strongest weekly figure in ten months. At the same time, derivatives data show that positioning is not yet overheated: funding rates remain moderate, and open interest is recovering only gradually. The key question now is whether spot inflows will continue, thereby giving the rally a broader base. This keeps the focus clearly on real demand, not just on short-term liquidation dynamics.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,28%)

The recent $BTC (-0,99%)rally is primarily a macroeconomic story, not purely a crypto story. While the FOMC minutes revealed a more hawkish internal debate than the final monetary policy decision suggested, data released since then has increasingly weakened the case for further tightening. A lower-than-expected inflation reading and weaker labor market data have renewed expectations that U.S. monetary policy is heading toward a less restrictive course. $BTC (-0,99%), which continues to react very sensitively to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields, has responded accordingly.

The inflows suggest that institutional demand is returning in tandem with the improved macroeconomic environment. Digital investment products based on cryptoassets—i.e., ETPs—have recorded $1.3 billion in inflows so far this week. Of that amount, approximately $715 million came on Wednesday—the strongest single-day figure since May 1 and one of the strongest days of the year. #bitcoin Bitcoin-focused products accounted for about $1 billion of the weekly inflows, bringing year-to-date inflows back into positive territory after a prolonged period of weakness.

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,28%)

Institutional demand has recently become significantly more volatile. After global digital asset investment products recorded inflows of $1.15 billion in the first week of August, they turned to outflows of $349 million last week. This abrupt reversal affected almost exclusively $BTC (-0,99%), which accounted for outflows of $371 million. The movement was primarily a U.S. phenomenon: products in the U.S. recorded redemptions of $402 million, which were partially offset by moderate inflows in Europe.

We view this as a tactical rather than a structural shift. Inflows into $ETH (+0,24%) remained largely stable, while $ALT (-0,85%) recorded slight inflows. This therefore represents a #bitcoin-specific, macro-driven repositioning rather than a broad-based pullback. The trigger is the interest rate outlook: Since U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above target, expectations for short-term rate cuts remain uncertain. The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the end of the month will be decisive.

For investors, it is crucial to recognize that capital flows have now become a mechanical, short-term driver of price movements. In a market with low volatility and little hedging, even moderate outflows can $BTC (-0,99%)affect the price. Weekly fluctuations should therefore not be confused with a change in the long-term investment thesis.

$BITC (-0,28%)

$CETH (+0,47%)

$DIME

$BTC (-0,99%) is stuck in a summer lull, with unusually low trading volumes making short-term price movements harder to interpret. Daily #bitcoinvolumes currently stand at around $4 billion, with similarly subdued activity in stocks and other risk assets. In this environment, relatively small capital flows can have a disproportionate impact on prices—we advise caution when interpreting daily volatility.

The macroeconomic environment has nevertheless improved. Recent U.S. labor market data were notably weak, with significant downward revisions; the economy added an average of only about 20,000 jobs per month over the past three months. The expected employment boost from the World Cup turned out to be significantly weaker than anticipated. At the same time, the latest inflation reading was largely in line with expectations and is steadily moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s target.

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,28%)

The ISM Manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management Index), a key indicator of U.S. manufacturing activity, continued to strengthen in July, driven by robust investment in AI infrastructure. This upward trend is likely to continue in the coming months, given the very strong export data from Taiwan. The index is now firmly in expansionary territory and has remained above the 52 mark for several months. Historically, any sustained movement above this threshold following a contraction has been associated with strong $BTC (-0,99%)price gains—the current divergence is therefore unusual. Our analysis of the #bitcoinvariance suggests that the price continues to be driven primarily by the dominant macroeconomic factor, which is closely linked to global growth. If this relationship remains intact, $BTC (-0,99%) ultimately benefit from the ongoing improvement in manufacturing activity. Currently, however, $BTC (-0,99%) , however, from a lack of investor interest. This partly reflects the market shift toward AI, although this increasingly overcrowded trend is showing the first signs of fatigue. Meanwhile, sentiment toward cryptocurrencies remains subdued, with many valuation metrics still hovering in a range typically associated with the later stages of a bear market.

At the same time, several indicators have begun to improve. ETF inflows have turned positive again, and funding rates on perpetual futures returned in July. The main catalyst remains a more significant improvement in the inflation outlook. Significant progress in this area would likely give the market a strong boost. Overall, the signs increasingly suggest that we are approaching the final phase of the bear market, although it is unlikely to be over yet.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,28%)

I am deliberately not committing to a precise price target for $BTC (-0,99%) . The range of possible outcomes is currently too wide for that. Nevertheless, I have a clear view of the direction: In my base-case scenario, #bitcoin be higher at year-end than it is today—that is, above the current level of around $64,000. The lows from March through June may already have marked the bottom of this cycle.

For me, what matters less is the exact magnitude of a potential rise than the risk-reward ratio. It would take an additional negative trigger for significant new losses to occur. For prices to rise, on the other hand, it might be enough for current conditions to remain stable. Four factors support this view: a historically favorable valuation, adjusted positioning following the decline, a return to positive ETF inflows, and the prospect of less hawkish U.S. monetary policy. U.S. spot ETFs recently recorded inflows again after eight consecutive weeks of outflows. Should the Fed refrain from further rate hikes, $BTC (-0,99%) benefit as an interest-rate-sensitive asset. This is because lower real interest rates typically increase the appeal of scarce, growth-oriented investments such as $BTC (-0,99%).

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,28%)

All Bitcoiners and crypto investors should sign this petition. I did, too. Thank you 🙏🏻. Feel free to share.

Link: https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petitionen/_2026/_05/_30/Petition_201716.nc.html

$BTC (-0,99%)
$ETH (+0,24%)
$SOL (+2,96%)
$BNB (+0,51%)
$XRP (-4,29%)
$TRX (-0,71%)
$HYPE (+2,1%)
$ASTER (-1,14%)
$GRAM (-11,61%)$BITC (-0,28%)
$COIN (-2%)
$MSTR (-2,21%)
$STRC
#steuer
#steuern
#petition

Last week, Japan and the U.S. Treasury Department took coordinated action—Japan sold euros and propped up the yen after it had fallen to record lows. But Japan’s currency weakness has deeper roots: Inflation is picking up, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is keeping its monetary policy far too loose. Yet Japan has little room to maneuver. Public debt stands at around 230 percent of GDP, and the BOJ holds about half of it. If the central bank were to raise interest rates significantly, it would incur enormous costs—but any delay in normalization further erodes confidence in the yen.

The real risk lies in the interest rate differential with the U.S. Higher Japanese yields would narrow the spread with U.S. yields and could trigger a massive unwinding of carry trades—a scenario that would weigh on risk assets and intensify selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. That is why the BOJ is forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to defend the yen without raising its own interest rates. That was also the reason for Washington’s intervention: to limit these sales—at a time when the 30-year Treasury yield had risen to its highest level since 2007. However, the BOJ seems too complacent. The longer normalization is postponed, the greater the risk of a sudden, sharp adjustment.

The most likely outcome is precisely such a broad unwinding of carry trades. That would hit the U.S. bond market at a particularly fragile moment—yields are already elevated, the federal debt continues to grow, and government bond issuance and refinancing remain substantial, with a maturity structure heavily concentrated in the short-term segment after the market had positioned itself for interest rate cuts that had been expected prior to the Iran conflict. Additional selling pressure in such an environment could become massive and force the Federal Reserve into its customary role as buyer of last resort. Whether through Fed liquidity injections or a highly indebted BOJ fighting to preserve the yen’s credibility—the message is the same: The macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable for scarce stores of value such as $GOLD and $BTC (-0,99%).

$BITC (-0,28%)

Thank you 🙏🏻. Feel free to share.

Link: https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petitionen/_2026/_05/_30/Petition_201716.nc.html

$BTC (-0,99%)
$ETH (+0,24%)
$SOL (+2,96%)
$BNB (+0,51%)
$XRP (-4,29%)
$TRX (-0,71%)
$HYPE (+2,1%)
$ASTER (-1,14%)
$GRAM (-11,61%)$BITC (-0,28%)
$COIN (-2%)
$MSTR (-2,21%)
$STRC
#steuer
#steuern
#petition

The global macroeconomic environment deteriorated significantly last week: Asia saw a record-high unwinding of leveraged positions, the FOMC made a controversial decision, and the sell-off in the AI sector continued. The crypto market’s reaction, by contrast, was relatively subdued. Bitcoin fell by about three percent over the course of the week and continued to trade within a range of $63,300 to $65,500. Even the now-likely delay of the Clarity Act—which is not expected to be placed on the Senate’s agenda until after the summer recess—had little impact on this range. Despite outflows totaling $426 million in the seven days leading up to the close of trading on Wednesday, the relative stability of $BTC (-0,99%) provided some relief compared to a significantly more volatile stock market. (Data source: Bloomberg; the calculation is based on the sum of fund flows over this seven-day period, as the text was written on Thursday morning.)

Text: Alexandre Schmidt, CoinShares’ Equity Index Manager

$BITC (-0,28%)