DAX

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GDAXI

GDAXI

DAX breaks 19,000 points for the first time today. New all-time high. +21% in 12 months. 🇩🇪📈💶👑🏆🥇 #dax
$GDAXI
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☢️ Opinion at TIEJEY ☢️

$GDAXI - DAX - Short

✅ Next stop - 18073€

❗️❗️❗️ Investments are speculative and carry a high level of risk. Every investment is unique and involves unique risks. When trading with shares and other securities, your capital is capital is at risk. ❗️❗️❗️

Hello to all!

First of all: I have created some headings to bring in structure. That said, it is not a post of analytical significance and should not be treated as such. Take it with a bit of humor and pick out bits and pieces that interest you. Also feel free to write a comment. I will answer it with pleasure.

2 days ago I read a post about losing 5000€ on derivatives.

Of course, I don't intend to start a competition about who lost more or less money. Nevertheless, I think it is interesting to share experiences in dealing with derivatives.

After all, everyone who starts trading thinks they are now making oodles of dough. In hubris, people like to ignore the big warning that 89% of traders lose money.

How it all began

My experience was 3 years ago and it started on 10/03/2020 at the young age of 13.

If you think about the date, you will notice that this was the beginning of the corona crisis. Only until that time the young @TheAnalyst not yet, how he should arrange this virus into the total economic events.

After about 3 months of demo trading and a bunch of Youtube videos about trading strategies, I thought it was time to handle real money. Of course, the amount was limited to money earned by myself. So on 04.06.2020 the time had come, the first 500€ rolled into the account. (Attachment 1)

Full of anticipation, trading began. A few trades went great and I made friends with currencies and oil derivatives. I also created an accurate Excel spreadsheet of profits and losses to keep accurate records.

The beginning of the end

However, my other trades went rather less well and the stress took me fully, so that I could hardly grasp a clear thought.

In addition, I could not imagine that the $GDAXI would fall to 12,900 points and below, but that happened soon.

Apparently, I also lacked the strong nerves at that time to hold the shorts I made against the short counter-movements. This was probably also due to the fact that at this time I still could not imagine a huge recession to witness.

So the whole game took its course and gradually more and more margin call warnings came into my email inbox. In total there were 23 (attachment 2).

It is probably not worth mentioning that I liked to use levers in the range of 10 - 50. After all, I really wanted to make money.

Based on my firm conviction that the market can never fall further and will turn in a few days at the latest, 4 more deposits fluttered into the account after hardest persuasion work with my father (attachment 3). The margin calls had to be covered 😉

I went about my normal everyday life, only with the difference of constantly having to think about the rates and also the margin calls. My table tennis training became an ordeal. Every 5-10 minutes I had to look at my phone and if necessary inject another cash injection to keep the game going. After all, you only make a loss when you realize it🧐

The plan was to cover the margin calls until the prices would rise again.

In addition to training, my working hours were also significantly disturbed by thoughts of and glances at the price data.

Unfortunately, I woke up one morning to find the notification on my phone. One of my positions was closed due to a margin call. The largest one. (Exhibit 4). Well OTC there are just movements when you trade against the broker🙁🤷‍♂️

New strategy

At some point I realized that the shit was pretty much hitting the fan. After a long talk with my father and I closed all the positions I still had open. I changed tactics and was able to make consistent profits.

Unfortunately, these were by far less than the high losses I was incurring. Nevertheless, my body and especially my fingernails thanked me for giving the margin calls a break.

However, it took me far too long to work the loss back in, so I thought.

The END

In the meantime I had become 14 years old and that gave me an idea. This idea was then also successful and I closed officially on 17.05.2021 my trading account. I know that this is not an execution of the end and the new strategy, but I have to keep it so short, because I do not think it is appropriate to share them here. Anyone who thinks a little will surely come up with it.

Conclusion

I don't want people to read this post and feel encouraged to also recklessly go down this path. But the opposite is equally undesirable. I will probably open an account with a trading broker again in the near future. But this time with better planning and the prior knowledge from this first time.

The lesson covers a variety of areas. At the core, however, are experiences that you make yourself. Namely, the feelings that overflow the body during trades and against which you can hardly do anything. However, you can learn to understand which actions you take based on your feelings and thereby filter out an opinion that is as objective as possible.

Of course, there are also tactical lessons to be learned. In the time after my trading, I focused mainly on analysis. I assume that in some ways it is a defense mechanism to prevent the loss of control I experienced in trading in the future. Nevertheless, it is a development that has already brought me many benefits and a better understanding of certain events.

I hope it's a nice little story to sweeten your holiday a bit.

By the way, if anyone needs a reading editor they are welcome to use Hemingway. Actually I use it to make the language in texts as simple as possible, so that for example the conversion rate of websites is better. If someone wants to try it out, he can sign up via this link. My advantage is that I move up a few places in the queue for the AI supported version ;)

https://4.hemingwayapp.com/beta?inviteCode=96f43c32-c737-4ee3-91ac-21cf1dba911e

Dream big. Be brave. TheAnalyst

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week and dates of the coming week.

here the dates of the coming week as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/nasFIUyppOU?feature=share

Monday:

Several gradations at $ENR (+3,97%):

Jeffries downgraded Siemens Energy from 'Buy' to 'Hold', with a price target cut from EUR25 to EUR16.50. Analyst Simon Toennessen expects two years of losses at Siemens Gamesa. The parent company could fathom higher costs at the subsidiary for years.

Deutsche Bank Research left the rating at 'Hold' but lowered the price target to EUR20 from EUR26. According to analyst Gael de-Bray, the valuation is attractive, but the uncertainty remains too high.

Citigroup downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' while lowering the price target to EUR18 from EUR29. Analyst Vivek Midha believes that the company can no longer plan ahead after the profit warning.

DZ Bank also downgraded Siemens Energy from 'Buy' to 'Hold' and lowered the share price from EUR27 to EUR16. Analyst Alexander Hauenstein emphasized that currently too many questions remain unanswered.

https://goldesel.de/Artikel/abstufungen-und-verbrannte-erde-bei-siemens-energy

#Markowitz has died. Harry Markowitz was a crucial pioneer of #portfolio theory and Nobel laureate. He was instrumental in making correlation matter when considering portfolio risk. That is, a portfolio can be less risky despite having risky stocks if individual stocks have little correlation in performance. Among stocks from the same industry, for example, the correlation is often quite high, while other industries correlate less. Other asset classes even less. From a risk perspective, it can therefore also make sense to add gold or cryptos to the portfolio.

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markowitz

The #ifo business climate index has weakened further. The value fell to 88.5 points. Experts had expected 90.7 points. The ifo business climate index surveys executives and is used to derive the economic barometer.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/_amp/nachricht/17077339-wirtschaft-eil-ifo-geschaeftsklimaindex-juni-gesunken

70 % of the $GDAXI-companies expect AI to change their business model in the next few years. 90% of DAX companies plan to use AI applications.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/technik/forschung-innovation/handelsblatt-umfrage-iphone-moment-70-prozent-der-dax-konzerne-sagen-dass-ki-ihr-geschaeftsmodell-veraendert/29222240.html

Tuesday:

The USA's economic engine 🇺🇸 continues to hum. New orders for durable goods surprisingly increased. Month-on-month, orders rose by 1.9%; a decline of 0.9% had been expected.

https://m.ariva.de/amp/usa-auftrge-fr-langlebige-gter-legen-unerwartet-weiter-10767671

Wednesday:

$BAYN (+0,42%) is facing a setback in its search for a successor to Xarelto. The Regeneron Group's application for approval of the eye drug Eylea initially failed at the U.S. regulatory agency. Bayer holds the marketing rights to Regeneron's drug.

https://goldesel.de/Artikel/bayer-rutscht-auf-neues-tief

De#bankenstrinesstest in the USA 🇺🇸 was positive. In the face of a severe economic downturn, the 23 banks tested were able to maintain a capital ratio of 10.1% on average. The aim was to remain above the minimum ratio of 4.5%.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/wall-street-us-banken-kommen-gut-durch-den-stresstest-doch-die-debatte-um-neue-regulierung-ist-entbrannt/29230238.html

Thursday:

EU consumer confidence 🇪🇺 improved somewhat, similar to the U.S. 🇺🇸.

https://de.nachrichten.yahoo.com/eurozone-wirtschaftsstimmung-trübt-stärker-erwartet-094022271.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJG4df9V4mku5CQAhtvb2zI79pbWIngNot6-jlD1zjxZIogfscmxBS8mYMN1y2YgdxvQTbidFeICEOQ-OWArFhI-u6Qoe7UBuFlGdaTfBQ-FGE-yYgsmc_-iBGfRX0FchH6oXHzwlVol6P6II_eA0kNfTq92NnL8KWstYJZEljV4

Friday:

Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating for $ST5 (-1,03%) upgraded its rating from 'Equal-weight' to 'Overweight'. At the same time, the price target was reduced from EUR 53 to EUR 45. The share is currently trading below EUR 30. Analyst Manfredi Bizzarri believes that now is the right time to buy Steico. There would continue to be headwinds from the construction industry and competitors, but expectations are now probably at rock bottom. The company should soon start growing again, as Steico's niche is attractive in the long term.

https://goldesel.de/Artikel/zeit-fuer-den-einstieg-bei-dieser-aktie

Production at #china 🇨🇳 continued to decline. However, the stock markets in China still rose. The main reason was that Li Qiang (Premier) advocates policies that increase domestic demand.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/boerse-asien-zinsaengste-druecken-japans-boersen-china-im-plus/29232030.html

The #inflation in the euro zone is falling more sharply than expected, to now 5.5% compared with the same month last year. In Germany, there was an increase from 6.1% to 6.4% compared with the previous month. However, one-off effects such as the EUR 9 ticket and the fuel price discount played a role here. Experts had expected an increase of 5.7% in Europe.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/preisentwicklung-inflationsrate-im-euro-raum-sinkt-auf-5-5-prozent/29232236.html

Key dates in the coming week:

Monday: 1:50 manufacturing index (Japan)

Tuesday: 8:00 Trade Balance (DE)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC Minutes (USA)

Thursday: 11:00 Retail Sales (EU)

Friday: 14:30 Labor Market Report (USA)

In many books you can read again and again that a DAX ETF has achieved an average return of about 7-8% per year over a longer period of time. Nevertheless, most prefer a World ETF or the S&P500.

How about you?🧐