Messaggi
20This week we have three exciting setups on the radar 👇
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📈 $AMD (+11,43%) (Advanced Micro Devices)
Technical support meets seasonal strength - the zone remains exciting for long setups.
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💸 $DLTR (-3,3%) (Dollar Tree Inc.)
After a prolonged recovery, the price could break out again towards new local highs.
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🔵 $ASML (+2,21%) (ASML Holding NV)
The upward trend remains intact - we are watching the blue zone for possible entries.
Trump administration's suspension of food aid likely unlawful: judge
$WMT (-2,87%)
$COST (-2,54%)
$TGT (-3,03%)
$DLTR (-3,3%)
A judge in Boston ruled that the government is required to use reserve (emergency) funds.
🔹 Revenue: $4.60B (Est. $4.47B) 🟢; UP +12.3% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.77 (Est. $0.40) 🟢; includes ~$0.20 timing benefit from tariffs
Guidance (FY26):
🔹 Revenue: $19.3B–$19.5B (Est. $19.15B) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: $5.32–$5.72 (Est. $5.47) 🟡
🔹 Same-Store Sales Growth: 4%–6%
Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Same-Store Sales: +6.5% (Traffic +3.0%, Ticket +3.4%)
🔹 Operating Income: $231M (Adj: $236M); Margin 5.1% (Adj: 5.2%)
🔹 Net Income: $156M; Diluted EPS: $0.75
🔹 Gross Margin: 34.4% (UP +20 bps YoY)
Other Highlights:
🔹 Completed sale of Family Dollar (July 2025); now a Dollar Tree-only business
🔹 Repurchased >$1B shares YTD (11M shares; $938M + $71M post-Q2)
🔹 Opened 106 new stores; 585 stores converted to “3.0” multi-price format
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $666M; $2.4B remaining repurchase authorization
🔹 Net cash from ops YTD: $639M; Free cash flow YTD: $145M
Management Commentary:
🔸 CEO Mike Creedon: “With Family Dollar sold, we are now fully focused on strengthening Dollar Tree. Strong sales, margin expansion, and share gains reinforce our unique positioning in a tougher consumer backdrop.”
🔸 Company flagged ~$0.20 EPS boost from tariff timing in Q2, expected to reverse in Q3.
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.26 (Est. $1.21) 🟢; +2.4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $4.6B (Est. $4.72B) 🔴; +11.3% YoY
FY Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $18.5B–$19.1B (Est. $18.95B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.15–$5.65 (Est. $5.21) 🟢
FY Guidance:
🔸 Same-store sales expected to grow 3%–5%
🔸 Assumes existing tariff levels remain unchanged
🔸 FY EPS will reflect full-year SG&A costs of Family Dollar support, but reimbursement will only be for H2 → ~$0.30–$0.35 drag on FY EPS
🔸 Second quarter EPS expected to be down 45–50% YoY due to timing of inputs, before re-acceleration in H2
Q1 Same-Store Sales (Dollar Tree Segment)
🔹 Same-Store Net Sales Growth: +5.4%
🔹 Traffic: +2.5%
🔹 Average Ticket: +2.8%
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $388M; +1.4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 35.6%; +20bps YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 8.4%; -80bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.9% (vs. 24.6%)
🔹 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 26.1% (vs. 24.6%)
Strategic/Operational Metrics
🔹 New Stores Opened: 148
🔹 Stores Converted to Multi-Price Format: ~500
🔹 Operating Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $379M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $130M
🔹 Share Repurchases: $436.8M (5.9M shares); Additional $67.5M post quarter-end
🔹 Remaining Repurchase Authorization: $519.7M
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.0B
🔹 No borrowings under revolvers or commercial paper at quarter-end
Family Dollar Sale (Discontinued Ops)
🔹 Agreed Sale Price: $1.007B
🔹 Expected Net Proceeds: ~$800M
🔹 Estimated Tax Benefit: ~$350M
🔹 Antitrust Approval: Received
🔹 Expected Close: Q2 FY2025
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Creedon:
"Our strong first quarter performance underscores the progress we’ve made against our strategic priorities... we see a meaningful opportunity to further elevate the value, convenience, and discovery that our customers depend on Dollar Tree to provide."
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.29 ($0.18 from discontinued ops)
🔹 Rev (Cont. Ops): $5.0B (Est. $8B) 🔴 (+0.7% YoY)
🔹 Same-Store Sales (Dollar Tree): +2.0% (Traffic +0.7%, Ticket +1.3%)
FY25 Outlook (Continuing Operations Only)
🔹 Net Sales: $18.5B – $19.1B
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.00 – $5.50 (Est. $5.96) 😕
🔹 Includes a $0.30–$0.35 headwind from Family Dollar TSA timing
Q1 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $4.5B – $4.6B
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.10 – $1.25 (Est. $1.46) 😕
Strategic Update:
🔹 Family Dollar Sold to Brigade Capital & Macellum Capital for $1.007B
🔹 Net proceeds estimated at $804M, with ~$350M in tax benefits from losses
🔹 Spin-off to close by Q2 FY25, Family Dollar to remain in Chesapeake, VA
🔹 Reported as discontinued operations effective Q4 FY24
Q4 Segment Metrics
🔹 Gross Profit: $1.9B (↓2.8% YoY); Margin: 37.6% (↓130bps)
🔹 Operating Income: $534M (↓26.5%); Adj. Op Income: $628M (↓15.2%)
🔹 Adj. Op Margin: 12.6% (↓230bps)
🔹 SG&A: 27.0% of revenue (↑260bps); adj SG&A: 25.1%
🔹 Adj. Effective Tax Rate: 24.8% (vs. 23.8% YoY)
Capital Allocation & Liquidity
🔹 Repurchased 3.3M shares for $403.6M in FY24
🔹 Cash & equivalents: $1.3B
🔹 No revolver borrowings or commercial paper outstanding
🔹 New $1.5B Revolver + $1.0B 364-Day Facility secured in March 2025
Management Commentary
“We finished 2024 on a high note with strong execution at Dollar Tree… With the sale of Family Dollar, we can fully dedicate ourselves to Dollar Tree’s long-term growth, profitability, and returns on capital.”
Here is the share price performance of the companies I track continuously. I focus on the period from 01.12.2024 - 15.01.2025
My portfolio currently contains shares in 3iGroup.
Action published its latest figures in November, which underline its strong growth in Europe. Action has achieved achieved net sales of 10.733 billion eurosaccompanied by an operating EBITDA of 1.532 billion euros - an impressive increase of 26 %. increase of 26 % compared to the previous year. What particularly impresses me is the like-for-like growth of 10.1%, driven entirely by volume increases. In a rising cost of living environment, Action shows how effective a strategy that passes on discounts directly to customers can be. Despite industry-wide price increases, Action remains a model of efficiency. In the first nine reporting periods of the year, 189 new stores were opened and 350 new stores were planned for the full year 2024. I assume that this target has been achieved. I find the rapid expansion in Italy, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain particularly exciting.
Basically, it can be said that US stocks (e.g. Dollar Tree and Dollar General) recorded high losses in 2024. Among other things, this was due to a lack of efficiency, but also to the threat of Trump's punitive tariffs on goods from China. Therefore, another exciting candidate for me is Dollarama, as they operate exclusively in Canada and Latin America.
$DLTR (-3,3%) | Dollar Tree Q3 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.12 (Est. $1.07) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $7.56B (Est. $7.45B) 🟢; UP +3.5% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $333.4M (Est. $332.2M) 🟡; UP +10.5% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 30.9% (Est. 30.6%) 🟢; UP 120 basis points YoY
Q4 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $8.1B-$8.3B (Est. $8.24B) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.10-$2.30 (Est. $2.23) 🟡
FY24 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $30.7B-$30.9B (Est. $30.69B) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $5.31-$5.51 (Est. $5.41) 🟡
Q3 Same-Store Sales Growth:
🔹 Enterprise: +1.8% (Est. +1.3%) 🟢
🔹 Dollar Tree Segment: +1.8% (Est. +1.9%) 🟡
🔹 Family Dollar Segment: +1.9% (Est. +0.7%) 🟢
Q3 Segment Revenue:
🔹 Dollar Tree: $4.34B (Est. $4.26B) 🟢; UP +8.3% YoY
🔹 Family Dollar: $3.22B (Est. $3.19B) 🟢; DOWN -2.5% YoY
Business Metrics:
🔹 Total Locations: 16,590 (-0.2% YoY)
🔹 Dollar Tree Locations: 8,868 (+7.2% YoY)
🔹 Family Dollar Locations: 7,722 (-7.5% YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $359.2M
🔹 Net Cash from Operations: $785.6M
Operating Highlights:
🔹 Enterprise traffic grew by 1.6%, contributing to same-store sales growth.
🔹 Dollar Tree traffic grew by 1.5%, with a 0.3% increase in average ticket.
🔹 Family Dollar traffic grew by 1.8%, with a flat average ticket.
🔹 Gross margin improved primarily due to lower freight costs and better shrink results.
Strategic and Business Updates:
🔸 249 new Dollar Tree stores and 6 new Family Dollar stores opened in the quarter.
🔸 Approximately 2,300 Dollar Tree stores converted to multi-price formats.
🔸 Ongoing review of Family Dollar strategic alternatives, including potential sale or spin-off.
🔸 CFO transition announced; external search for a replacement underway.
