Raiffeisen Intl Action Forum

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/a4VONpgpDy8?si=DlcRJH90N19mxo9L

Monday:

The $VOW (-2,5 %) Lamborghini, a car manufacturer belonging to the VW Group, made a significantly higher profit. Turnover increased by 14.1% to 1.6 billion euros in the first half of the year. The profit rose to 458 million euros. The USA remains the most important market, ahead of Germany and the UK.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/lamborghini-sportwagenhersteller-erzielt-rekordgewinn/100056120.html

The prices for freight rates are rising sharply again, one consequence of which is that the trader Depot had to file for insolvency. Shipowners cite the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea as the cause. Traders speak of an artificial shortage.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/logistik-starker-anstieg-der-frachtkosten-bringt-haendler-in-existenznoete/100053221.html

Explosion on the factory premises of $BAS (-5,27 %) BASF site in Ludwigshafen. The causes are still unclear, 14 people were slightly injured.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/chemieunternehmen-brand-nach-explosion-auf-basf-werksgelaende/100056151.html

Tuesday:

Some company figures at a glance:

$BP. (-1,72 %) BP (oil company) beats expectations on profit and raises dividend.

The Austrian $RBI (-1,7 %) Raiffeisen Bank also increases its profit (Q2) to 661 million euros. Around half of this comes from the controversial Russian business.

The lubricant manufacturer $FPE Fuchs also increased its EBIT by 9%. Turnover fell by 3%.

The Swiss chemical manufacturer $CLN (-4,47 %) Clariant raises its profit forecast. Although sales fell in the first half of the year, the EBITDA margin increased.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-einsparungen-bei-fmc-zeigen-wirkung-knorr-bremse-erwartet-mehr-gewinn-/24098412.html

The German economy is still not making any headway. GDP fell by 0.1% in the second quarter. In the first quarter, growth was 0.2%. It is therefore questionable whether GDP will grow over the year as a whole.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-01-prozent/100056168.html

Inflation in Germany 🇩🇪 remains a tough issue. At 2.3%, inflation in June was again slightly above the ECB's 2.0% target. Expectations were also slightly lower at 2.2%. However, the decisive factor is the inflation rate in the eurozone as a whole 🇪🇺. For example, Spain 🇪🇸 reported significantly lower inflation than expected.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/verbraucherpreise-inflation-bleibt-zaehe-angelegenheit-leichter-anstieg-im-juli/100054889.html

Wednesday:

$TMV (+2,46 %) Teamviewer continues to grow profitably and also exceeds expectations with an EBITDA margin of 41%. Above all, cash flow increased significantly by 29% to EUR 60.8 million in Q2. The P/E ratio is now also in the 10 range. This is very low by comparison for a software group.

https://stock3.com/news/teamviewer-ist-profitabler-als-gedacht-15091142

The BoJ raises interest rates for short-term deposits to 0.25% from 0.1% previously. Bond purchases are also to be reduced further. The BoJ is thus gradually ending its policy of negative interest rates, which has led to a massive depreciation of the Japanese yen.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-bank-of-japan-hebt-zinsen-an-anleihekaeufe-sollen-sinken/100056181.html

Inflation in the eurozone surprisingly rises to 2.6%. This makes a faster interest rate cut by the ECB less likely. Experts had only expected inflation of 2.5%. The ECB itself has set itself a target of 2.0%. Blanchard recently criticized the target and said a target of 3.0% inflation would be better. Prices for services in particular have continued to rise sharply, increasing by 4.0%. In June, however, the increase here was still 4.1 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/ezb-inflation-im-euro-raum-steigt-ueberraschend-auf-26-prozent/100054891.html

Following Jerome Powell's press conference, expectations of an interest rate cut in September in the USA 🇺🇸 have risen to 84%. The figures are currently moving in the right direction.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/us-notenbank-fed-stellt-maerkte-auf-baldige-zinswende-ein/100054877.html

Thursday:

$VOW3 (-2,26 %) Volkswagen exceeds expectations. Both sales (83.3 billion euros instead of 83) and operating profit (5.5 billion euros instead of 5.3) were higher than expected in the second quarter. In order to achieve the planned return of at least 6.5%, VW still has to stretch itself a little.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-toyota-wird-noch-profitabler-weniger-gewinn-fuer-bmw-und-vw/24098412.ht$BOSS (-3,01 %)

$BOSS (-3,01 %) HUGO BOSS announced a significantly better cash flow in the second quarter. Although the forecast was recently lowered, HB remains on course for growth and is gaining market share in a generally weak market.

https://group.hugoboss.com/fileadmin/media/hbnews/user_upload/Investor_Relations/Finanzberichte/2024/2024-08-01_HUGO_BOSS_Quartalsmitteilung_Q2.pdf

The BoE decides by a narrow majority to cut interest rates for the first time. The key interest rate is lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 5.0%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-bank-of-england-beginnt-mit-der-zinswende/100056340.html

Key dates in the coming week:

Monday: 16:00 Economic data (USA)

Tuesday: 11:00 Retail sales (EU)

Friday: 14:30 Employment data (Canada)

UniCredit ($UCG (-0,51 %)) has decided to take legal action against claims made by the ECB to reduce its Russian business. Russian business business in Russia.

The ECB had demanded that UniCredit ($UCG (-0,51 %)) and Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1,7 %)) set detailed targets for the withdrawal from Russia. These targets required UniCredit to present a strategic plan, which has not yet been submitted. To date, the ECB's focus has been on RBIwhich had originally planned to realize its profits from Russia through a Strabag ($STR (-2,02 %)) share swap deal to Vienna. However, this plan was abandoned after the company involved was placed on the sanctions list.

UniCredit is the second largest company after RBI the second largest representative of Western banks in Russia. Since March 2022 the bank has increased its cross-border business by 91% and its domestic business by 65% reduced. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel already emphasized at the beginning of the war that he was not prepared to give up the Russian business. The ECB has not yet commented on the legal dispute. The proceedings could drag on for several months, with court decisions possibly only being made years later. However, this could be problematic as the targets set by the ECB by 2026 are to be achieved. Orcel received support from the Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajaniwho emphasized that the ECB should act in accordance with the EU sanctions and that hasty decisions could harm Italian and EU companies.

I'm new here. Find it very funny and interesting here so far.

Wanted to ask what is your opinion on $RBI (-1,7 %) especially now after the Russian/U.S. history.

That makes you happy 😇

added to the portfolio two weeks ago because I work there and now want to earn some of the dividends 😉

I am curious, normally the Russia crisis should be largely overcome.

Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1,7 %) ) canceled its planned sale of high-risk AT1 bonds on Wednesday after a "negative market reaction" to a report that the US was putting pressure on the bank over a deal with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

RBI HAS participated in the issuance of additional Tier 1 bonds in the amount of 650 million euros with a demand of more than 1.6 billion euros from investors.

But hours before the bonds were to be priced, Raiffeisen withdrew the offer, citing the Reuters article that Washington is putting pressure on the bank to complete a complex and controversial €1.5 billion asset swap with Deripaska to drop. This is a deal that would allow the bank to repatriate profits from Russia.

The strong demand for AT1 bonds on the market is due to the insolvency of Credit Suisse ($n/a ). At the time, the regulatory authorities released 17 billion US dollars in Credit Suisse Bonds defaulted.

Raiffeisen is currently the largest European lender still active in Russia and has made enormous profits since the start of the war in Ukraine. Last year, almost half of the half of its profits came from its Russia division, but these have been frozen by the Kremlin.

Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1,7 %) ) has rejected the reports of alleged sanction threats by the US Treasury Department as false. A spokesperson for the bank emphasized that RBI has a comprehensive and robust compliance monitoring system and naturally adheres to all applicable sanctions.

Last week, the RBI received a visit from Anna Morris, a high-ranking employee of the US Treasury Department. The US embassy in Vienna had stated in advance that the US authorities also wanted to discuss the powers of a new sanctions authority at this meeting. This authority could cut off banks that contribute to the financing of the Russian military from the US financial system.

In addition, the RBI was placed on the Ukrainian National Agency for Corruption Prevention's (NACP) blacklist of international "sponsors of war". The bank expressed its wish to continue the dialog with the NACP in order to be removed from this list.

The United States have Austria and the Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1,7 %) ) have issued an urgent warning about the potential risks associated with their business in Russia associated with their business in Russia.

This step comes as part of an increased enforcement of sanctions by the USA. In particular, it emphasizes that banks must take measures to protect themselves from trading activities that are linked to the military-industrial
complex
of Russia military-industrial complex.

Otherwise, there is a risk that they will be cut off from the US financial system from the US financial system.

The Financial Supervisory Authority
(FMA) is investigating Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1,7 %) ) due to possible violations in the combating money laundering.

The investigation focuses on the "know-your-customer principle" and concerns payments made by three customers between 2017 and 2020. The RBI could receive an administrative fine as, according to the FMA, it has not fully complied with its obligations.

The investigations relate to payments with a connection to Russia and data from the "Cyprus Confidential" project by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. The RBI plans to appeal against a fine if one is imposed.

The Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1,7 %) ) plans to divest its subsidiary bank Priorbank in Belarus. To this end, it is currently negotiating with Soven 1 Holding Limited from the United Arab Emirates.

If this sale materializes, the RBI would incur a loss of 225 million euros would suffer.

In addition to this loss of 225 million euros the completion of the sale would have a further negative effect on RBI's income statement of around 450 million euros have. This is due to the fact that historical currency losses have to be recognized until the sale is completed. The Belarusian rouble has 2011 compared to the euro lost much of its value against the euro.

RBI is also active in Russia, where it has also reduced its business. It is even considering selling or spinning off its subsidiary bank in Russia. In order to reduce the business risk in Russia, the RBI currently, Strabag shares ($STR (-2,02 %) ) of the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska to buy them. RBI hopes to close this deal by the end of March 2024 by the end of March 2024.