4Lun·

The path to financial freedom

My path to financial freedom. My investment horizon is around 15 years.

Monthly savings rate 2600 Euro
1000 Euro ETF savings plan
1150 Euro individual shares
400 Euro BTC savings plan + 20000 Euro cash still invested to reach 20 % of the portfolio
50 Euro P2P Go&Grow

Target weighting

30 % shares

$AMD (-2,25 %)
$ASML (-3,34 %)
$SHOP (+0,43 %)
$NOW (+5,97 %)
$NU (-0,34 %)
$META (+2,71 %)
$FTNT (+3,26 %)
$ANET (-2,65 %)
$NFLX (+0,08 %)
$APP (-1,83 %)
$CRWD (+3,27 %)

20% Bitcoin $BTC (-0,3 %)

10% gold $EWG2 (+1,01 %)

5% P2P Bondora Go&Grow

5% Cash cushion $ERNX (-0,06 %)

the strategy is always individually adapted.

34 Comentarios

4Lun

There is still a long way to go with this strategy.

30% GTAA
30% 3xGTAA
30% 2xSpytips
10% cash
= approx. 2,3%pM
= 7080€pM gross
= 5200€pM net
= Financial freedom today.

But I'll probably always be the Don Quixote of investment strategies. 🤷

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

4Lun

@Epi oder 100% S&P500

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Epi@Epi

4Lun

@Ph1l1pp That's probably not going to happen with FF in the next 10 years.
If you look at the past 60 years, the next 10 years will be more like 1%pa return minus approx. 30% USD devaluation. 🤷

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Solitair@Solitair

4Lun

@Epi Do you practise this yourself?

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Epi@Epi

4Lun

@Solitair Almost. I still have gold and a trading portfolio. Since starting two years ago, however, I have achieved pretty much exactly 2%pM (always somewhere between -1.5% and +10%). But the proposed allocation would have been even better.

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

4Lun

@Epi

1) 2.3% pM corresponds to about 31% pa, which is far from reality in the long term, plus the volatility drag/ TER/ tax disadvantages/ rebalancing costs (I would be happy to provide figures)

2) How do you arrive at 1% pa, especially taking into account the last 60 years? The S&P has made just under 11% pa in the last 60 years

3) Topic USD devaluation: EURUSD has been in a 30% range for 10 years and behaves in cycles, in my opinion only plays a subordinate role in the long term

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Epi@Epi

4Lun

@Ph1l1pp 1) Why is 31%pa far from reality? Far from what reality? Simons has been doing 60%pa since the mid-80s.
The performance is calculated very conservatively from the backtests, you are welcome to deduct 20% tax (GTAA runs in my tax-free pRV shell, 3xGTAA in the tax-free Wikifolio, 2xSpytips has partial exemption), then 1.85%pM = 5700€pM - that's enough.

2) The valuations also run in cycles. ShillerKGV of the S&P500 is at its maximum. Every time in the past 10 years there was hardly any return, only a lot of vola.

3) USD cycle hardly plays a role in the long term, correct. But here the FF is supposed to start in 15 years or earlier. So the cycle is definitely relevant. 🤷

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Thorsten@silverbug999

4Lun

@Epi what will you do if the USD appreciates and gold falls?

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

4Lun

@Epi I would be interested in the backtests, especially how far back they go and what they look like taking into account all the costs listed.

If I can find the time, I would also be happy to write a script and do this myself

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