Continuando con mi publicación anterior. Quería hacer un análisis completo del peor rendimiento de mi algoritmo desde marzo: FDJ ($FDJ (-1,36 %) ).

Como mencioné, la cotización se ha hundido un 28% desde que la marqué como "alta oportunidad". FDJ tiene un monopolio estatal de loterías en Francia blindado hasta 2044. Entonces, ¿por qué ha caído tanto?

He consultado el diagnóstico del modelo matemático de mi plataforma y ha aislado exactamente el ruido que asusta al mercado:

📉 Nuevos impuestos: Nuevas tasas al juego en Francia junto a un 15% de impuesto a la publicidad (un golpe estimado de 90M€ al EBITDA recurrente).

📉 Costes de integración: La macro compra de Unibet (Kindred Group) por 2.500M€ ha presionado fuertemente los márgenes de beneficio a corto plazo.

📉 Incertidumbre regulatoria: Demandas de consumidores en Países Bajos por 75M€ y un endurecimiento de la regulación del juego a nivel europeo.

El mercado odia la incertidumbre y ha destrozado la cotización.

Pero aquí viene el giro. El sistema deja a un lado los sentimientos. Tras analizar la caída, el algoritmo califica a FDJ como 🟢 ÓPTIMO en la actualización de esta semana.

¿Por qué? Porque bajo todo este ruido temporal, la máquina de hacer dinero sigue funcionando:

✅ Ingresos inmensos: Ahora mismo ofrece una RPD (Yield) brutal del 9.1%.

✅ Deuda controlada: A pesar de la enorme compra de Kindred, la ratio Deuda Neta/EBITDA es súper saludable (solo 1.74x).

✅ Valoración barata: El PER actual asusta (23.9x) debido a los altísimos costes extraordinarios de integración. Pero el PER forward (futuro) es de apenas 9.3x.

El algoritmo no previene la volatilidad a corto plazo. Identifica desajustes fundamentales de valor. Mi tesis principal (comprar un monopolio estatal altamente rentable de rebajas) sigue absolutamente intacta. Y en este momento, el margen de seguridad es mucho mayor.

I want to share a success history of my algo, it is only few months going,

On March 26th, I did a post about the algorithm flagging a massive market anomaly: Edenred ($EDEN (-4,36 %) ).

Since that post, the stock has rallied +50%. 📈

Let's be clear: my game is NOT 2-month swing trading. I am a long-term dividend growth investors. I propose to buy exceptional businesses when the market severely misprices them due to "temporary problems", and hold.

The panic in March was driven by headline noise regarding multinational antitrust probes and fee cap regulations. The market sold off on pure fear.

But the tool stripped away the emotion and looked at the cold data:

🔹 Pristine Balance Sheet: Net Debt/EBITDA of -0.37x (Net Cash). They have immense flexibility to absorb any fines.

🔹 Cash Machine: 41.3% EBITDA margin running on a capital-light business model.

🔹 Ultra-Safe Dividend: Currently yielding 5.91%, but it only eats up 26.3% of their Free Cash Flow. Incredibly secure.

The best part? Even after a 50% run-up, it’s still trading at a P/E of just 10.7x.

That’s exactly why Edenred is STILL sitting in our 🟢 OPTIMAL quadrant today. It offers a rare combination of deep value, margin of safety, and reliable income.

And i am still entering with small amounts.

to be fully fair, i selected the worst performer since march on my top opportunity scores (+85 opportunity).

And that is $FDJ (-1,36 %) , down 28%. But here's the thing — our algorithm STILL rates it 🟢 OPTIMAL at today's price. 9.1% yield, forward P/E of 9.3x, state-backed lottery monopoly until 2044. The thesis is intact. This is exactly the kind of "temporary problem" we look for — and it's now even cheaper.

interesting that they are both French

The market just sent $FDJ (-1,36 %) down 7%this morning (now 3%) after a 3% Q1 revenue decline and a guidance cut driven by French tax hikes.

When a stock tanks, the algorithm checks for one thing: a broken business or a temporary problem? The math engine strongly points to the latter. It just moved FDJ to the 🟢 OPTIMAL quadrant.

Here are the exact algorithm scores and the context behind them:

• Quality Score: 75 / 100

• Opportunity Score: 85 / 100

• Dividend Yield: 7.95%

The Valuation Nuance:

If you look at trailing P/E, it looks expensive at 26.7x. But that is heavily distorted by recent tax hits and integration costs. When you strip out the accounting noise, the Forward P/E is actually sitting below 10x, and the Price to Funds From Operations (P/FFO) is incredibly cheap at 7.4x.

The Contrarian Take:

State-backed lotteries function like regulated utilities - they have a captive audience and highly predictable cash flows. The trade-off is that you have to stomach occasional tax grabs from the government.

For dividend investors willing to look past short-term regulatory noise, the current plunge offers a massive 8% yield and a deep margin of safety on a monopoly asset.