First Solar

FIRST SOLAR EMERGES AS KEY WINNER FROM DOC ANTIDUMPING RULING $FSLR (+1.24%)

MARKET RESPONSE

- $FSLR shares gained up to 6.5% Monday, following 3.5% increase on Friday

- Positive market reaction follows Department of Commerce's preliminary determination on antidumping duties (Nov 29)

ANALYST INSIGHTS

Piper Sandler (Kashy Harrison)

- Rating: Overweight

- Price Target: Raised to $250 from $210

- Key Points:

* DoC rates exceeded expectations

* Panel pricing likely to increase significantly post-duties

* Potential for utility-scale project delays

* Names $FSLR as sole beneficiary under coverage

Jefferies (Julien Dumoulin-Smith)

- Rating: Buy

- Analysis:

* Positive outlook for US domestic manufacturers ($FSLR) and Malaysia-based Longi

* Vietnam producers ($JKS (-1.72%), $002459) face higher-than-expected antidumping rates

* Thailand rates significantly above expectations, affecting $CSIQ (+5.93%) and Trina

* Market reactions deemed appropriate for $FSLR (up) and $JKS/$CSIQ (down)

Truist (Jordan Levy)

- Rating: Buy

- Key Observations:

* Clear positive for $FSLR given domestic US supply chain

* Company secured on near-term price/volume

* Potential catalyst for expanded domestic manufacturing

* Positive implications for related companies: $SHLS, $ARRY (+2.87%), $NXT (all rated Buy)

UPCOMING CATALYST

- CPIA Annual PV Conference (Dec 4-6)

* Critical event for sector near-term direction

* Expected to reveal supply-side dynamics

* Recommended close monitoring by investors

INDUSTRY IMPLICATIONS

- Strengthens case for US manufacturing expansion

- Module/cell pricing expected to adjust to reflect tariff impact

- Reduced uncertainty may boost booking momentum

- Final determinations pending for next year

INITIAL MARKET REACTION TO TRUMP VICTORY:

• U.S. Stocks: Broadly higher across sectors
• $XLF: Big banks higher on expectations of regulatory relief, M&A growth
• Cannabis Stocks: $WEED (+3.04%), $MSOS, $TLRY (+6.31%) down as Florida votes against legalization
• $CVS (+0.57%), $UNH (+1.64%) : Health insurers rally on potential easing of Medicare Advantage pressures
• $XLE (+0.32%) , $XOM (-0.4%): Energy stocks higher, anticipating fossil fuel support and less regulation
• Solar/Renewables: Pressure on $FSLR (+1.24%), $SEDG (+11.9%), EV, hydrogen, and battery stocks as clean energy subsidies could be rolled back
• Crypto: Higher as Trump holds a favorable stance, $BTC (-1.24%) strong
• $TSLA (-4.58%): Higher after Trump Win as Musk was all-in on support
• Bonds: Weaker, with yields rising on fiscal concerns
• China Stocks: Weak as tariff pressures and anti-China policy concerns grow
• Peso/Mexican Equities: Weaker on aggressive trade policies and tariffs fear
• FinTech: Higher with $HOOD (+3.38%), $AFRM (+3.63%) , $SQ (+1.31%), $SOFI (+1.24%) responding positively
• Dollar: Stronger due to pro-business policies
• $META (-2.23%), $SNAP (+0.45%): Mixed as TikTok ban concerns ease
• Overall: Dollar, crypto, energy, banks, and U.S. stocks higher; bonds, renewables, and cannabis under pressure.

Barclays Lowers PT on $AMD (-0.35%) to $170 from $180 - OW

Analyst Comments: "The MI300 ramp remains on track with another raise to >$5B (from >$4.5B), but an unseasonably high Client in December sets up a tougher starting point for 2025, where we model Client down more than seasonal (-15%)."

Barclays Raises PT on $CMG (-0.82%) to $60 from $55 - EW

Analyst Comments: "Chipotle shares have outperformed recently, rebounding after the surprise CEO departure in August '24. Heading into 3Q24 earnings, there was pressure on the company with new leadership in both the CEO and CFO roles, and any shortfall in results or outlook was likely to be attributed to the transition. However, 3Q24 results were in-line with expectations, with no material surprises."

Citi Raises PT on $GOOGL (+0.94%) to $216 from $212 - Buy

Analyst Comments: "We emerge from Alphabet’s 3Q24 earnings incrementally positive on shares. Google Search & YouTube revenue growth of +12% Y/Y highlight continued advertiser adoption of its monetization tools as query growth evolves with AI Overviews and broader GenAI search tools."

BofA Lowers PT on $FSLR (+1.24%) to $269 from $321 - Buy

Analyst Comments: "Following First Solar’s Q3 earnings, we reiterate our Buy rating, viewing the recent challenges as situational rather than structural. The reduced volume guidance was primarily due to three contract terminations and modules initially expected to be sold this year, which we see as largely idiosyncratic issues."

"FSLR’s 73.3 GW contracted backlog reflects strong demand, enabling the company to be selective in securing new bookings at favorable ASPs. With plans to expand capacity to over 14 GW in the U.S. and 25 GW globally by 2026, FSLR is well-positioned to capitalize on U.S. policy tailwinds—regardless of the election outcome, in our view."

$FSLR (+1.24%) | First Solar Q3'24 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 EPS: $2.91 (Est. $3.11) 🔴

🔹 Revenue: $887.67M (Est. $1.07B) 🔴

🔹 Net Income: Impacted by a $50M product warranty reserve charge

🔹 GAAP Net Cash Balance: $0.7B (DOWN from $1.2B in Q2'24)

FY24 Guidance:

🔹 Revenue: $4.1B-$4.25B (Est. $4.44B) 🔴

🔹 EPS: $13.00-$13.50 (Est. $13.44) 🟡

🔹 Gross Margin: $1.95B-$2.00B

🔹 Operating Income: $1.48B-$1.54B

🔹 Volume Sold: 14.2GW-14.6GW (Previous 15.6GW-16.3GW)

🔹 Capital Expenditures: $1.55B-$1.65B (Previous $1.8B-$2.0B)

🔹 Net Cash Balance: $0.5B-$0.7B (Previous $0.6B-$0.9B)

Operational Highlights:

🔹 Bookings: 4.0 GW YTD; 0.4 GW added since Q2 earnings call

🔹 Sales Backlog: 73.3 GW

🔹 Product Warranty Reserve Charge: $50M impacting Q3 profit

🔹 Revenue Decrease Driver: Lower MW sold and warranty charge, partially offset by termination payments from customers in the U.S. and India

Financial Metrics:

🔹 Operating Expenses: $123.3M

🔹 R&D Expenses: $50.2M

🔹 Production Start-up Costs: $26.8M

🔹 Cash and Cash Equivalents: $1.01B

🔹 Capital Expenditures: Driven by U.S. factory builds in Alabama and Louisiana

CEO Mark Widmar's Commentary:

🔸 "Despite industry volatility and political uncertainties, we are pleased with our progress. Our disciplined, long-term strategy will help us navigate the outcomes of the U.S. elections and ongoing market fluctuations, ensuring balanced growth, profitability, and liquidity."

Business Highlights:

🔸 Factory Expansion: Capital investments continue for new facilities in Alabama and Louisiana.

🔸 Political & Market Risks: Company monitoring potential impacts of U.S. elections and global solar manufacturing volatility.

🔸 Section 45X Tax Credit: Guidance includes $1.02B-$1.05B tax benefits, offset by ramp costs and production start-up expenses.