$DHER (-0.09%) is always worth a trade :)

intra it already looked quite good :)

📊 Underlying Delivery Hero $DHER (-0.09%)

• Current share price: ~€23
• 12-month range: € 19.7 - € 42
• Performance 1 year: -21%
• Turnover: just under € 10 billion (2023)
• Forecast: almost break-even in 2025, first profits expected in 2026
• Vola: 40-60% → not for the faint-hearted 🌀

💡 New issue: Deka Express certificate "Memory with airbag" (WKN DK1GKX)

• 12% interest p. a. 💸
• Memory effect: missed interest can be made up for
• Airbag protection: up to -50% fall in share price
• Early repayment possible if the share is above the redemption threshold

😎 Opportunities

• Fat coupon of 12 % annually
• Memory makes it more robust in the event of setbacks
• Airbag cushions the strong vola

⚠️ Risks

• Below the 50% barrier → Repayment in shares (risk of loss)
• Invest directly in the share = more upside, but also more stress

🧘 My conclusion

Delivery Hero is still a grab bag: sales are growing, profitability is getting closer, but Spain/Glovo remains a big question mark. If you want a return and don't want to jump straight into the deep end, the certificate is a more relaxed alternative.

👉 Now it's your turn:

What do you think - 12 % p. a. with airbag up to -50 % ... clever move or would you rather keep your hands off and play the share directly? 🤔

$PDD (+0.44%)
$601318
$EH
$OKTA (+1.12%)
$MDB (+1.67%)
$3690 (-0.65%)
$KSS (+0.84%)
$ANF
$CRWD (+1.18%)
$SNOW (+2.24%)
$HPQ (-0.48%)
$NTNX (+0.6%)
$NVDA (+2.48%)
$DHER (-0.09%)
$LI (-1.44%)
$DELL (+2.29%)
$S (+1.84%)
$IREN (+8.71%)
$ULTA (-0.94%)
$MRVL (+5.35%)
$AFRM (-0.37%)
$ADSK (+1.12%)
$BABA (+1.35%)

Grab Holdings ($GRAB (+2.34%) ) is the leading provider of ride-hailing, food delivery and digital financial services in Southeast Asia. With a wide range of services, the company has established itself as a "super app" and has become an essential part of daily life in many Southeast Asian countries. However, after strong growth and an IPO, the stock has gone through a difficult phase - but is Grab on track to become a turnaround story in 2025?

Overview: What does Grab do?

Grab is active in several business areas:

✅ Ride-hailing: Grab is the market leader in the ride-hailing sector and competes with Uber in Southeast Asia. In addition to passenger transportation, Grab also offers delivery services for parcels.

✅ Food delivery (GrabFood)With GrabFood, the company has a strong position in the food delivery business, especially in cities such as Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. The business is growing steadily, especially during the pandemic.

✅ GrabPay and financial servicesGrab has also positioned itself in digital financial services, with GrabPay, a mobile payment platform, and a range of loans and insurance for its customers.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Gojek (now part of Tokopedia) $GOTO : The biggest competitor in the ride-hailing and food delivery industry in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian markets.

🔸 Uber $UBER (+0.07%) Also active in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Philippines and Vietnam. Uber continues to be a significant competitor in the ride-hailing segment.

Correction: Uber is no longer directly active, but rather an indirect beneficiary of Grab's development through its shareholding..

🔸 Foodpanda $DHER (-0.09%) : A strong competitor in the food delivery sector in several countries, including Grab's main markets.

🔸 Ant Group (Alipay)
$9988 (+1.34%) and PayPal $PYPL (+0.68%) competitors in the field of digital payments and FinTech services.

Opportunities: Why could Grab make a comeback in 2025?

✅ Leading market position: Grab is well established in Southeast Asia, with a broad user base and a strong brand. This position could protect the company in the long term.

✅ Expansion potential in the FinTech sector: GrabPay and other financial services continue to be a valuable source of revenue. Grab could further expand its FinTech business as the region continues to offer great potential for digital payments and banking services.

✅ Growth in the food delivery business: The trend towards online delivery services continues to grow. GrabFood could gain even more market share, especially through partnerships with local restaurants and expanded services.

✅ Synergies from the super app strategy: Grab offers not only transportation and delivery, but also financial services and entertainment. This integration of services creates a strong ecosystem for users and partners.

Risks: What could continue to burden Grab?

⚠️ Strong competition: There are already strong local and international competitors in financial services.

⚠️ High losses and high expensesGrab has repeatedly made losses in the past. Sustainable growth and a return to profitability remain a major challenge, especially in view of the high operating costs.

⚠️ Regulatory risks: Like many companies in the region, Grab has to deal with changing and strict regulatory requirements, particularly in the FinTech and ride-hailing sectors.

⚠️ Macroeconomic uncertainties: Economic uncertainty in Southeast Asia, ongoing political tensions and the impact of the pandemic could weigh on business.

Conclusion: Can Grab achieve a turnaround?

Grab has the potential to remain a major player in Southeast Asia if it can overcome competitive challenges while increasing growth in its various business segments. Especially the FinTech-expansion and the synergies as a super appcould be decisive in the long term.

For investors who believe in the potential of Southeast Asia and have a long-term perspective, Grab could be an exciting turnaround candidate for 2025.

What do you think? Does Grab have what it takes to make a comeback in 2025 and remain successful in the long term?

Last week was the week of food delivery services, so of course $DHER (-0.09%) (Delivery Hero) should of course not be missing. Here is the summary of the analyst conference:

Niklas Östberg, CEO, presented the key results. GMV increased by 8% at constant exchange rates, and adjusted for the effects of hyperinflation accounting. Growth outside Asia was particularly pleasing, accelerating from 25% in the third quarter to 27% in the fourth quarter. There are signs of a return to growth in Asia, with GMV growth already recorded in 8 out of 12 countries. The company exceeded its own sales forecast with growth of 22% for the year as a whole.

Adjusted EBITDA improved by almost EUR 500 million year-on-year to around EUR 750 million, which was also above the forecast. Free cash flow improved significantly to around 100 million euros. Thanks to the IPO of Talabat, net debt was reduced to 1.9 billion euros, which corresponds to a leverage ratio of 2.5x.

Marie-Anne Popp, CFO, provided insights into the development of the individual segments. In Europe, strong order growth led to GMV growth of 17%. The MENA segment recorded accelerated GMV and sales growth of 34%, driven by Saudi Arabia and Talabat. In the Asia segment, the expiry of the free delivery offer for non-subscribers in Korea had a short-term negative impact on sales, but improved profitability. The Americas segment recorded GMV growth of 25% and positive adjusted EBITDA for the year as a whole. The gross profit margin increased to a new record level in the fourth quarter. For the year as a whole, GMV grew by 8% to almost 49 billion euros and segment sales by 22% to almost 13 billion euros.

GMV growth of 8% to 10% and sales growth of 17% to 19% are expected for 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between EUR 975 million and EUR 1.025 billion, including additional investments in Korea and costs related to the change of the rider model in Spain. Free cash flow is expected to exceed EUR 200 million in 2025.

Niklas Östberg presented a short case study on the business in Saudi Arabia, where the company maintains a strong leadership position despite a very competitive market. The advertising business already generates more than EUR 1 billion in revenue, with growth of 36% in 2024.

In the subsequent Q&A session various topics were addressed:

Korea: The analysts inquired about the growth outlook and product developments. Delivery Hero expects growth in Korea to improve over the course of 2025, driven by product improvements and a stronger focus on subscriptions.

Saudi Arabia: There were questions about the competitive situation and the investments made. Delivery Hero emphasized that it is focused on providing an excellent customer experience and is able to compete in a highly competitive environment.

Hong Kong: Analysts asked about the recovery of the Hong Kong business. Delivery Hero explained that it is responding to increased competitive activity and expects to return to growth in the coming quarters.

M&A: There were questions about the company's cash position and M&A ambitions. Delivery Hero emphasized that the focus is on organic growth and that it does not want to be distracted by M&A activities.

Take Rate: Analysts inquired about the factors influencing take rate improvement. Delivery Hero explained that it is a mix of different factors, including increasing subscriptions, higher delivery fees and a growing share of own deliveries.

Spain: There were questions about the changes related to the rider employment model in Spain. Delivery Hero is in a transition to an employment model and is working on a smooth implementation.

In closing, Niklas Östberg thanked all participants and emphasized that the company remains focused on profit and growth.

I hope this summary has helped you to better assess the current situation at Delivery Hero.

I have made changes to my stock portfolio, on the one hand after further analyzing my positions. I appreciate the feedback 🫶

❌ I have decided to sell:

$WMT (-0.66%)
$ITX (+1.51%) partially at 40%.

$AMZN (+1.74%)
$BMW (+0.8%) at 100%.

The main reasons are in the case of the first 2 (Inditex y Walmart) make up too large a part of my portfolio and I think there are better investments to make at this time, besides both are at or very close to their historical highs and after analyzing their fundamentals I have noticed that they are somewhat overvalued🔝.

(They are still part of my portfolio and in case of corrections I will always be able to repurchase)

In the case of Amazon after analyzing it has had a great growth but in numbers it seems too expensive 🫰

(I have preferred to ensure profits although I do not rule out a future purchase at a fairer price).

On the other hand BMW was not as good an idea as I had in my head at the beginning and after a 6% rise in a very short time I have decided to take it out of the way ⏱️

(I think there are much better investments out there and besides it is a sector in which I don't see good forecasts for the long term 🤔)

✅ On the other hand I have decided to buy:

$META (+0.52%)
$DHER (-0.09%)
$GOOGL (+2.03%)

I personally believe that Meta is a company with a long way to go and despite being at historical highs its fundamentals are quite good compared to other companies of its size 👏👌.

As for Google after an 11% drop from highs I have seen it as a good opportunity to buy back at lower prices 🤑

Finally there is my bet with Delivery Hero which has not yet generated profits but is a company that I consider undervalued compared to what it could be worth in the future and is also a good company to diversify in European and emerging markets 🇪🇺🇨🇳

2 days ago I was looking to buy 3 new stocks for my portfolio with growth potential and a relatively fair price (except the last one).

On the one hand $DHER (-0.09%) which although has not yet shown positive results because they continually reinvest profits, they have revenues of 10B and is valued at 7.5B or was before it went up over 20% in a week 🫥

On the other hand $PZZA (+4.28%) which was trading only yesterday at about 15x earnings before it blew through the roof today almost 16% today alone (now trading at 18x earnings) 🫥

The icing on the cake was $HIMS (+2.11%) that just yesterday watching it I thought, trading at 100 times earnings it can't have much upside potential, and today it made 24% 🫥

But well, at least that last one hurts me less because I would not have bought without very good reasons and I still had to do a more in-depth study of the stock 🥲

Tui gains at the start of winter + UBS positive on Delivery Hero + Mediamarkt parent Ceconomy significantly increases sales and operating profit

TUI $TUI1 (+0.19%)
grows at the start of winter and reduces losses

• Tui, the world's largest travel group, has started the winter season with clear growth.
• In the first financial quarter to the end of December, the Group counted 3.7 million customers, six percent more than a year earlier, as it announced on Tuesday before the start of its Annual General Meeting in Hanover.
• For the rest of the year, smaller increases are expected so far: Tui has so far registered two percent more bookings than in the previous year for both the winter as a whole and the summer season.
• Prices rose by four percent. "We are on track for further growth for the year as a whole," said Tui CEO Sebastian Ebel.
• In the travel-weak months of October to December, turnover jumped by 13 percent to around 4.9 billion euros.
• Before interest, taxes and special effects (adjusted EBIT), Tui earned around 51 million euros, more than eight times as much as a year earlier.
• The bottom line was a loss of a good 85 million euros for shareholders.
• Tourism companies are usually in the red in winter.
• They make their profits in the peak travel season in summer.

UBS positive on Delivery Hero $DHER (-0.09%)

• Shares in online food delivery services are in demand on Monday.
• MDax leader Delivery Hero made it back above the technically significant 21-day moving average thanks to price gains of 5 percent.
• This is an important trend indicator for the short-term development.
• The same applied to the shares of cooking box mail order company Hellofresh , which rose by 2.6 percent.
• In Amsterdam and London, the shares of industry colleagues Just Eat Takeaway and Deliveroo met with buying interest, as shown by price gains of 2.9 and 1.3 percent respectively.
• The major Swiss bank UBS continues to recommend buying Delivery Hero.
• The confirmed price target of 55 euros implies a doubling of the current share price.
• Analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb wrote that data showed a stabilized market share for the subsidiary Baemin in South Korea in January.
• Market growth there remained in the double-digit percentage range in December.
• The focus remains on a possible gradual recovery story for the company in 2025.
• One trader also saw advance praise for Delivery Hero's upcoming quarterly figures this Thursday as a possible price driver for the sector.

Mediamarkt parent company Ceconomy $CEC (+0.45%)significantly increases turnover and operating profit

• The Mediamarkt and Saturn parent company Ceconomy has achieved a leap in operating profit thanks to a strict cost-cutting program.
• The SDax company increased its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects by almost 13 percent to 279 million euros in the three months to the end of December compared to the previous year, as it announced in Düsseldorf on Tuesday.
• Analysts had expected roughly that much.
• Currency and portfolio-adjusted sales increased by almost a tenth to 7.6 billion euros, exceeding the average analyst estimates.
• The Executive Board is sticking to its known targets for the current financial year 2024/25 (until the end of September).
• Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, Group sales are set to increase "moderately".
• Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) adjusted for special effects, on the other hand, are expected to increase "significantly".
• Last week, rumors of renewed interest from Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com boosted Ceconomy's share price.

• The news agency Bloomberg reported that the Beijing-based company had recently approached the company and had begun to sound out major shareholders of the Düsseldorf-based company with a view to a possible deal, citing people familiar with the matter.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Japan stock exchange holiday

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Visa USD 0.59
• ASML Holding USD 1.59

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:00 DuPont quarterly figures
• 12:30 Humana quarterly figures
• 13:00 Coca-Cola | Marriott International annual results
• No time specified: American International Group | Lyft | Gilead Sciences Quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Ceconomy | Tui | Unicredit | AMS-Osram annual results
• 07:10 Norma Group preliminary annual results
• 07:45 Kering annual results
• 08:00 Cancom | BP annual results | Tui PK
• 09:00 Ceconomy analyst conference
• 11:00 Tui AGM | Ceconomy PK
• 19:00 Deutsche Börse | Telekom Austria Annual Results

Economic data

• 07:30 FR: Unemployment rate 4Q PROGNOSE: 7.5% Q3: 7.4%
• 08:00 DE: Domestic tourism December and year 2024
• 11:30 DE: Auction of 2.40% German government bonds maturing in April 2030 (volume EUR 5bn)
• 16:00 US: Fed Chairman Powell, hearing in the Senate Banking Committee
• 18:00 DE: ECB Director Schnabel, participation in IAB panel
• 19:00 Deutsche Börse | Telekom Austria annual results
• 21:30 US: Fed New York President Williams, speech at Pace University Economics Society event

No time specified:

• US: President Donald Trump receives Jordan's King Abdullah II at the White House
• EU: End of the two-day international summit on artificial intelligence, Paris

11.12.2024

Teamviewer continues to grow + Oracle's quarterly figures received negatively + IPO of Delivery Hero subsidiary Talabat flops

Teamviewer $TMV (-0.3%)went shopping again, share plummets.

• The shares slumped by 12.2 percent after an acquisition.
• The software company acquired the London-based company 1E, a specialist for digital workplaces, for 720 million dollars.

Oracle $ORCL (+1.58%)with quarterly figures from the previous evening, left its biggest competitor SAP $SAP (-2.86%)cold.

• The SAP competitor's figures were slightly below expectations on both the revenue and earnings side.
• It was mainly analysts' comments that moved share prices.
• Analysts from Jefferies and JPMorgan emphasize that Oracle needs stronger growth in the cloud segment for further share price gains.
• Oracle recorded an increase in sales of just under 9 percent in the second quarter, but missed analysts' expectations in terms of profit and growth.
• The stock recorded a 9% increase in sales to 14.06 billion dollars in the second quarter, missing market expectations of 14.11 billion dollars, according to LSEG.
• Despite robust growth in the cloud segment, Morgan Stanley analysts say the company is under scrutiny for how it can translate strong demand into accelerated revenue and sustained double-digit EPS growth.

IPO of Delivery Hero subsidiary $DHER (-0.09%)Talabat $TALABATflops

• The IPO of Delivery Hero subsidiary Talabat turned out to be a disappointment on the first day of trading.
• Talabat shares were last listed on the Dubai Stock Exchange with a discount of almost seven percent at 1.49 dirhams (0.38 euros). At the start, it had still looked like a successful debut.
• The Talabat share had initially risen by 7.5 percent.
• The parent company has now also lost ground.
• Shares in Delivery Hero lost 9.6 percent to 32.17 euros around midday.
• The Delivery Hero Group had raised the equivalent of almost two billion euros with the offered 20 percent stake in Talabat.
• Originally, the Berlin-based food delivery service wanted to offer 15 percent of its Middle East subsidiary on the market.
• According to Bloomberg data, the IPO was the largest in the region in 2024. Talabat is active in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt, among other countries, and delivers food and everyday items.
• In 2023, the business recorded a gross merchandise value (GMV) of more than five billion euros.
• In the first half of 2024, this figure increased by more than a fifth.
• Of the gross merchandise value, more than six percent remained as operating profit adjusted for special effects (EBITDA margin).

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

13:00 Exxon Mobil strategy update

13:00 Exxon Mobil analyst and press conference

22:05 Adobe detailed annual results

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Tui | Carl Zeiss Meditec detailed annual results

07:30 Inditex 9-month results | Talanx Capital Markets Day press conference

08:00 British American Tobacco Pre-Close Trading Update Annual Results

09:15 Tui PK

10:00 Metro Annual Press Conference & Capital Markets Update

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Domestic Tourism October

11:00 DE: Federal Government, Cabinet Meeting, Berlin

13:00 US: MBA Mortgage Applications

14:30 US: Consumer Prices November PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+2.7% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.6% yoy Core Consumer Prices PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.3% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+3.3% yoy

14:30 US: Real income November

15:45 CA: Bank of Canada (BoC), outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting Overnight Rate PROGNOSE: n.a. previously: 3.75%

16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)