As (real) interest rates fall, my overnight money reserve loses its appeal. 😏
In addition to the weekly $VWRL (+0.35%) -savings plan, I am therefore allocating capital specifically to the copper sector for the first time - tactically, not as a permanent core position.
🚀 Fundamental drivers:
- Electrification & AI boom: E-cars, charging infrastructure, grid expansion, data centers.
- Demand > supply: WoodMac/IEA see a structural deficit from 2025.
- Falling ore grades: Head grade < 0.5% ⇒ rising AISC.
- Recycling is not enough: By 2030, scrap covers < 50% of the increase.
- Geo-lump: 60% of concentrate comes from Chile, Peru, DR Congo.
🚨 Risk: In a recession, copper usually crashes first.
For me, this would be more of a buying opportunity than an exit signal.
📍 Position 1:
$COPA (+0.2%)
- WisdomTree Copper ETC
- Spot exposure
- Pure play on the price without company risk
📈 Chart:
Cup-&-Handle since 2006: Cap at ~€41 (2011 top) is currently under attack.
SMA 200 W (white) positive - first upward trend since 2012.
Volume profile: Largest cluster €30-33 → now support. - Above €41 "volume gap" begins with room for trend acceleration.
📍 Position 2:
$HBM (-1.32%) - Hudbay Minerals
- Multiple ≈ 5 x - cheap vs. majors
- Three Tier 1 assets plus Copper World (Arizona) could lift production by 50% by 2027
- Relatively ESG-friendly, stable legal systems
📈 Chart:
Weekly close > $11.6 would be a multi-year breakout with projection $14-16.
SMA 200 W rising: recent volume spike points to institutional accumulation.
Volume profile: Point-of-control at ~$6 serves as a massive floor.
📍 Position 3:
$ATYM (-0.9%) - Atalaya Mining
- The only major western EU copper mine (Proyecto Riotinto)
- Multiple ≈ 8 x, but pure copper story.
- E-LIX hydrometallurgy could reduce costs & extend life-of-mine.
- Minimal geo risk, € cash flows match EU demand
📈 Chart:
(The chart shown is quoted in British pence and has the longest history. Uses ticker E5S1 for the € price)
Ascending triangle 340 p (support) × 470 p (cap).
Close > 470 p confirms breakout with technical target 550-580 p.
SMA 200 W supports every dip since 2020.
My current copper positions:
That's it already 😁
What do you currently think of copper and are you invested?
