New copper positions in June

As (real) interest rates fall, my overnight money reserve loses its appeal. 😏

In addition to the weekly $VWRL (+0.35%) -savings plan, I am therefore allocating capital specifically to the copper sector for the first time - tactically, not as a permanent core position.

🚀 Fundamental drivers:

Electrification & AI boom: E-cars, charging infrastructure, grid expansion, data centers.
Demand > supply: WoodMac/IEA see a structural deficit from 2025.
Falling ore grades: Head grade < 0.5% ⇒ rising AISC.
Recycling is not enough: By 2030, scrap covers < 50% of the increase.
Geo-lump: 60% of concentrate comes from Chile, Peru, DR Congo.

🚨 Risk: In a recession, copper usually crashes first.

For me, this would be more of a buying opportunity than an exit signal.

📍 Position 1:

$COPA (+0.2%)

- WisdomTree Copper ETC

Spot exposure
Pure play on the price without company risk

📈 Chart:

Cup-&-Handle since 2006: Cap at ~€41 (2011 top) is currently under attack.

SMA 200 W (white) positive - first upward trend since 2012.

Volume profile: Largest cluster €30-33 → now support. - Above €41 "volume gap" begins with room for trend acceleration.

📍 Position 2:

$HBM (-1.32%) - Hudbay Minerals

Multiple ≈ 5 x - cheap vs. majors
Three Tier 1 assets plus Copper World (Arizona) could lift production by 50% by 2027
Relatively ESG-friendly, stable legal systems

📈 Chart:

Weekly close > $11.6 would be a multi-year breakout with projection $14-16.

SMA 200 W rising: recent volume spike points to institutional accumulation.

Volume profile: Point-of-control at ~$6 serves as a massive floor.

📍 Position 3:

$ATYM (-0.9%) - Atalaya Mining

The only major western EU copper mine (Proyecto Riotinto)
Multiple ≈ 8 x, but pure copper story.
E-LIX hydrometallurgy could reduce costs & extend life-of-mine.
Minimal geo risk, € cash flows match EU demand

📈 Chart:

(The chart shown is quoted in British pence and has the longest history. Uses ticker E5S1 for the € price)

Ascending triangle 340 p (support) × 470 p (cap).

Close > 470 p confirms breakout with technical target 550-580 p.

SMA 200 W supports every dip since 2020.

My current copper positions:

That's it already 😁

What do you currently think of copper and are you invested?

Epi@Epi

Thanks for the analysis. Copper is certainly interesting at the moment, but depends on the economy, which is anything but certain due to Trump.

Question: If tactical position, why not 2xCopper ETF $LCOP?

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Mo@BigMo

@Epi Hey Epi, how's it going? 🙂

Yes, that's right. In general, copper stands and falls with the economy.
But I think the global AI race will at least limit potential downside effects here.

"Tactical" for me means that, unlike my B&H holding, I actively manage the positions but can also hold them for 5+ years.
Sure, I could also leverage the copper futures, but the leverage is already given by the copper miners.

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Chris@Multibagger

Thank you for your analysis. I am also heavily invested in up-and-coming commodities, although not so much in copper so far. But for me, commodities are a very strong asset in the longer term.

@Multibagger 🙏 What commodities do you have in your portfolio? (Follower request is out)

You always have to keep a close eye on commodities, especially mining stocks, due to their cyclical nature.
If the USD rises again in the short term, I expect the copper price to suffer as a result.
However, this should not change the overall upward trend, which is driven by many positive factors.

Take a look at them in the portfolio. $PPTA $MP , $CDE and $IPX are in the savings plan. I only bought the others yesterday as a speculative addition. There could be a short squeeze at $MTM and $SCZ.

@Multibagger Thank you! I'll take a look at the titles

@BigMo You are welcome to give feedback. Always consider the portfolio under my overall profile target 😉 I tend to be more speculative

@Multibagger I don't know many of your individual stocks, or too little to form an opinion 😬 if you manage each position individually and don't buy and hold everything, that can of course also work well.

@BigMo my absolute favorite is actually $IPX, which I will expand in the long term. I could imagine at least one tenbagger there. $CDE will benefit greatly if silver heads towards 50$.
I'll see how the others develop and how long I hold them.