$VOE (+1.03%) In terms of share price, we have once again reached the bottom🥶

It's been a while since you could read anything about the Austrian steel producer here. You only find these lows for VOEST every few years. See also the following daily and weekly charts.

Yesterday there were the 1st half-year figures 2024/2025.

• Focus on high-tech products and broad positioning by sector and region supports Group result

• Sales of EUR 8 billion slightly down on the previous year (EUR 8.5 billion)

• EBITDA of EUR 718 million influenced by negative one-off effects (previous year: EUR 903 million)

• Equity of EUR 7.4 billion stable compared to the balance sheet date (March 31, 2024) Leverage ratio at 27.5 % (March 31, 2024: 22.0%) at a solid level

• Numerous international growth growth projects being implemented

• Successful placement of a green bond - the first European steel company to do so

• Number of employees (FTE) increased by 1% year-on-year to 51,700

• EBITDA outlook at around EUR 1.4 billion

Not available for TL:TR -- the whole thing in more detail📃

The voestalpine Group was confronted with low economic momentum in the current reporting period. This weakened the revenue fell by 5.5% in the first half of 2024/25, from EUR 8,512.8 million in the previous year to EUR 8,042.3 million. The year-on-year decline in sales, which affected all four divisions equally, is the result of lower sales volumes and a drop in prices against the backdrop of falling raw material costs.

The operating result (EBITDA) of the voestalpine Group vdecreased by 20.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024/25, from EUR 903.4 million (margin of 10.6%) to EUR 718.1 million (margin of 8.9%). The operating result (EBIT) of the voestalpine Group fell by around a third year-on-year, from EUR 519.3 million (margin 6.1%) in the first half of 2023/24 to EUR 338.5 million (margin 4.2%) in the first half of 2024/25.

Outlook.

Outlook:

At the start of the 2024/25 financial year, the weak performance of the construction, mechanical engineering and consumer goods industries was offset by very good demand from the railroad infrastructure, aviation, warehouse technology and conventional energy sectors. The automotive industry also performed largely stable at a solid level.

The conventional energy sector weakened noticeably over the course of the first quarter and the automotive industry also lost considerable momentum at the end of the second quarter following a series of profit warnings from well-known European OEMs. The economic mood in Europe changed over the course of the first half of 2024/25 after large corporations announced extensive plans to reduce their workforce.

On the basis of the result for the 1st half of 2024/25, the significantly gloomier market developments in Europe and the non-recurring burdens on earnings totaling more than EUR 100 million from the sale of Buderus Edelstahl and the reorganization of the reorganization of the Automotive Components business in Germany the Management Board of voestalpine AG expects for the business year 2024/25 from today's perspective an EBITDA in a range of around EUR 1.4 billion.

This earnings outlook is based on the on the expectation of continued good global development in the railroad infrastructure, aviation and warehouse technology business areas. The assessment of the performance of the voestalpine sites outside Europe in the other business segments also remains positive for the second half of 2024/25.

The challenges in Europe, and especially in Germany the Management Board of voestalpine AG is meeting the challenges in Europe, and especially in Germany, with active management and, where not otherwise possible, by reducing the Group's presence in this region.

My conclusion: I will continue to hold my position for the time being, but will not expand any further. Depending on the economic environment, Trump's influence, etc., a sale may also be an option

Who else has VOEST in their portfolio? What's your view? Hold, increase or sell?

Source of the data: voestalpine Investor Relations & Geschäftsbericht - voestalpine

$VOE (+1.03%) Voestalpine (steel) will be my first Austrian share! After a long period of observation, I will open my first position in the coming weeks!

As every Sunday, the news of the last week and the most important dates of the coming week.

The most important dates of the coming week as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/XRpmGjw1CJ8?feature=share

Monday:

$G24 (+0.54%) Scout24 is able to increase its forecast despite the slump in the real estate market. Also due to the acquisition of Sprengnetter (valuation portal), sales can increase by 15%. In a tense market, Scout24 profits above all from marketing and Plus products.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/immobilien-immobilienportal-scout24-erhoeht-nach-zukauf-prognosen/29306012.html

Catastrophic figures from $ENR (+2.08%) Siemens Energy - Because of the wind power division, an annual loss of EUR 4.5 billion is expected. The main reason is damage to wind turbines. As a consequence, the company wants to part with certain suppliers.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/industrie/siemens-energy-rechnet-mit-4-5-milliarden-euro-verlust-a-8f6bf488-27b4-4c47-af02-46c0f00ba820

Industrial production in Germany is being cut back more sharply than expected. In June alone, production fell by 1.3% compared with the previous month. Experts had expected a smaller decline.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-deutsche-unternehmen-fahren-produktion-unerwartet-stark-herunter/29306120.html

$TSM (+0.43%) TSMC is coming to Germany and can expect EUR 5 billion in subsidies. A plant is being built near Dresden, which will be operated jointly with NXP, Infineon and Bosch.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/halbleiter-taiwanesischer-chipriese-tsmc-kommt-nach-deutschland/29306926.html

Tuesday:

The trading da#china disappoint. Both exports and imports were below expectations. Year-on-year, exports sank by 14.5% in July. Imports fell by 12.4%. The data are compared in USD. At the same time, however, the renminbi yuan depreciated against the USD.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/17217918-aktien-asien-pazifik-abwaerts-china-daten-handel-enttaeuschen

$SIX2 (+0.72%) Sixt achieves record earnings, the best quarterly result in the Group's history. Bayer has to take write-downs, as already announced. The loss was slightly lower than expected. RTL has to revise its full-year forecast downward. Fraport becomes more optimistic for the full year.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-sixt-erzielt-rekordergebnis-rtl-senkt-jahresprognose/24098412.html

The excess profits tax from Italy 🇮🇹 is putting pressure on banks throughout Europe today. This is because the Italian government wants to skim off the banks' higher interest income. This is causing uncertainty about similar legislative projects and dragging the sector down.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-schliesst-unter-15-800-punkten-bankaktien-geraten-unter-druck/29312388.html

Wednesday:

$VOE (+1.03%) Voestalpine with profit slump, however, there was a corresponding expectation. The forecast was confirmed.

Also $EOAN (-0.18%) eon also confirmed the forecast it had raised in July. The company is said to be continuing on its growth course.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-eon-erhoeht-investitionen-und-bestaetigt-die-prognose-gewinneinbruch-bei-brenntag/24098412.html

$DHER (+3.05%) Delivery Hero raises its revenue forecast. Revenue is expected to grow by 15% instead of 10%. In addition, the EBITDA margin is to be at least 0.5%.

https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/delivery-hero-rechnet-mehr-umsatz-055911738.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA46eIxcDVPn8WOFs3FBIu5hUZ_H1eIooUZtI9tbGNc7B3PiCBZSTkNXas-XY25lseEuPuBpUpNcGibN2PX34w1n9IcD7RZGyXbw0QnMXz5aGbZQNqq1bY_5GDbwA_PeuyycdyVm1peezJapDgS0NxPN0FHtUlODqNOw51AFdXHt

#deflation instead of inflation in China 🇨🇳. The new data push the markets in Asia into the red on Wednesday. Prices fell by 0.3% compared to the same month last year. Expected were even 0.4%. Nevertheless, the figures did not go down well, because deflation is, like inflation harmful to the economy.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/china-wirtschaft-deflation-preise-lohnkuerzung-entlassung-1.6110930

For the first time in 10 years, deposits at Volksbanks and savings banks have fallen. This is good news, because it means that customers are switching to better-interest alternatives. This also puts Volksbanks and savings banks under pressure to finally allow savers to participate in the higher interest rates.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/inflation-und-preiskampf-einlagen-bei-sparkassen-und-volksbanken-sinken-/29314296.html

$WE WeWork stands shortly before the insolvency. The share price is plummeting. The only way out would be fresh money. However, commercial real estate is generally not in demand, so the co-working space business is likely to have a hard time.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/immobilien/immobilien-buerovermieter-wework-warnt-vor-insolvenz-aktie-bricht-ein/29321066.html

Thursday:

Surprisingly good figures from $ALV (-0.66%) Allianz, profit exceeded expectations due to fewer natural catastrophes and higher prices.

$HFG (+0.69%) Hellofresh continues to lose customers, but significantly increases bottom-line profit. The forecast remains unchanged.

$$MUV2 (-1.1%) Munich Re earns less than expected, but maintains forecast.

Rheinmetall increases sales, but earns less.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-allianz-ueberrascht-beim-gewinn-telekom-erhoeht-die-ziele/24098412.html

Inflation in the USA 🇺🇸 rises again slightly to 3.2%. However, 3.3% was expected, so this data should be received positively by the stock market and also provide further impetus.

https://rp-online.de/wirtschaft/us-inflationsdruck-nimmt-wieder-zu-teuerungsrate-bei-3-2-prozent_aid-95430155

Friday:

$CWC (+0.88%) CEWE benefits from higher travel. More people buy photo books. The last two quarters are the most important for the Group. However, sales already increased by 11 % in the second quarter.

https://amp2.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-alibaba-mit-ueberraschend-hohem-umsatz/24098412.html

Also $BC8 (+0.82%) Bechtle can beat expectations. The revenue forecast is reaffirmed. The pre-tax profit of 93.8 million euros was above the expected 90.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/jahresausblick-bekraeftigt-bechtle-aktie-stark-bechtle-schlaegt-erwartungen-12730615

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 14:00 Consumer Prices (India)

Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW Economic Indicator (DE)

Wednesday: 11:00 GDP figures (EU)

Thursday: 14:30 Manufacturing data (USA)

Friday: 11:00 Inflation data (EURO)

Hello dear community,

In view of the fact that there are now a lot of newcomers on the platform, I've created a graphic, typical of social media, to give you an overview of stocks that not everyone may have on their radar. It goes without saying that you can't know your way around every sector. But we have come together here in the community for a solid exchange.

But since we're here on Getquin and not on Instagram, here's some input for the inquisitive.

What do the companies do anyway?

Service providers:

On the service provider side, there are some rather atypical companies for the sector.

Here I have Friedrich Vorwerk $VH2 (+0.73%) Vinci $DG (-0.15%) , Ferrovial $FER , Bilfinger $GBF (-0.43%) and Jacobs Solutions $J (+1.16%) are listed here.

Their main focus is the background work on the properties themselves. They support the companies in planning, realization, construction and maintenance. They work decentrally in regional working groups to cover the breadth of the industry. They offer almost every service for an industrial company.

The established elite

If you want to invest in the hydrogen sector, all roads lead to the giants Linde $LIN (+0.54%) Air Products $APD (+0.04%) and Air Liquide $AI (-0.22%) . Their market power in the field of industrial gases and in today's market environment of commercial hydrogen production seems irrefutable. Their know-how in the gaseous material production segment has been tried and tested for decades and the processes are almost perfectly optimized. Each company also has its own engineering divisions, making them perfectly positioned for the future in electrolyzer development.

The established newcomers

With plenty of money in their pockets, the oil companies Shell $SHEL (-0.74%) Total $TTE (+0.86%) and BP $BP. (-0.03%) are also entering the segment. Oil is finite, but the business should not be. These companies are also experienced in dealing with hydrogen. Hydrogen is an essential component in the refinery process. In order to become less dependent on the big 3, new market areas are also being explored here. Will they be able to prove themselves?

Speculative titles

Never anything but expenses. Years of hype and yet a harsh reality hit the small fish in the shark tank surrounding the segment. Nel $NEL (-0.43%) Plug Power $PLUG (+9.5%) and Ballard $BLDP (+6.9%) are long-suffering. They have never been able to deliver even remotely profitable figures. On the contrary, things seem to be getting worse quarter after quarter. Only turnover is increasing. Can that ever be good?

Plant engineering and equipment

Of course, in a globalized world, you no longer take care of the entire value chain from A-Z. Every company specializes in its own segment. The long-term beneficiaries of the industry are therefore the equipment suppliers, because they have to develop the technical foundations for every innovation in order to survive in the vastness of globalization.

The plant manufacturers

They manufacture the physical parts for the process plants.

Examples of this are Voestalpine $VOE (+1.03%) , Atlas Copco $ATCO B or Sulzer $SUNE .

The suppliers

The transportation of substances is also part of this. Material transport in industry, but also at home, for example in water pipes, is ensured by pumps (for liquids) or compressors (for gases). Established brands here are KSB $KSB (+1.57%) , Xylem $XYL (+0%) , Gorrman-Rupp $GRC (-1.83%) but also as a complete supplier Chart Industries $GTLS (+1.62%) or SKF $SKF B (-0.22%) or for specialized tools Stanley B&D $SWK (+2.62%) .

Process control is also indispensable. Brands such as Siemens $SIE (-0.29%) ABB $ABBN (+0.42%) or Rockwell $ROK (+0.71%) and Parker $PH (+0.62%) have established themselves here. They not only supply the electronic equipment for the process systems. They also offer their software services as safety services so that safety in process control can always be guaranteed.

I hope I have given you a little insight into the industry and would be delighted to receive constructive feedback.

#wasserstoff
#h2
#hydrogen

The Great LoneMelon July Update:

Today I'm going to transparently re-update every analysis I've written here on Getquin so far.

Important to understand here is that when I trade by TA, I include daily and weekly events in my analysis. Therefore, what I wrote months ago may not be true today. However, for transparency reasons, I will update all analyses here exactly as I wrote them months ago and then write my explanations.

$CSNDX (-0.01%)

An analysis that took place under a post of Moritz @leveragegrinding has taken place.

Not officially on my profile, however, I have this already linked in the last update post so here again.

Chart No. 1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCS1Y6zq/

Update No. 1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kOIZ3R1J/

Update no. 2

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vj4EMoGZ/

Update No. 3 (Current)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hiv3te71/

Unfortunately I don't have the chart here anymore so I had to tinker it together a bit. Also my layouts are different in the meantime. Therefore, do not be surprised it looks design technically somewhat different. But I left everything relevant in it.

We had here 3 trade ideas.

1x Long Entry at the zone of 11800 - 11400.

2x Short Entry - once between 12900 and 13100 and once at 13200-13800 with the volume imbalance at 13300.

Trade No. 1 (Long) this would be currently, if one had held it up to our short entries at approx. 15% or 3-5R (1R corresponds to what one risks from the portfolio. With good risk management these are approx. - 0,5-1%) Therefore approx. 1,5-5% of the depot value in the plus. If one would have held until 10.07.2023 approx. 7R or 30%.

Trade Nr.2 (Short Entry Nr.1) here we actually had a confirmation and a structural change on the daily chart. (This was not particularly impulsive) but transparently we take this quite normally. Accordingly, we have been stopped out here and have therefore lost 0.5-1% of the portfolio in this trade. Since we assume good risk management here and that is worked with a stop loss.

Trade Nr.3 (Short Entry Nr.2) has never given a confirmation.

Accordingly, conclusion for the Nasdaq chart from January 24, 2023:

Current performance would be about 1-4% up or depending on entry, trades and risk management so 1-6R (1-6x what was risked). Means currently profitable. However, it is quite clear to see here that I did not expect so strongly rising prices at that time. But as I said TA changes over time and therefore I would have to make continuous updates to reflect my clear opinion here. However, we also see that although the zones have not held we had in fact pretty much every zone a strong or semi-strong reaction in which certainly also trades on smaller time frames would have been possible.

$BYW6 (+3.99%)

Analyses on my profile:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/gWgmerEXZc?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

https://app.getquin.com/activity/EvZhmLmgMY?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Current chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WUHyZFYv/

Conclusion was 30€ more likely than 60€.

Since analysis now almost 20% lost with reactions at all our zones meanwhile it stands at 37€ and in the next months I could also imagine that our last targets will be reached.

$BAYN (+0.17%)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/sTjMuBBPmb?lang=de

Take Profit 1and Take Profit 2were achieved - meanwhile therefore in profit or stopped out at breakeven.

$ADS (-0.15%)

Entry has never been hit. Therefore irrelevant. However, still well above our original take profit 1.

$YOU (+0.31%)
https://app.getquin.com/activity/ryqJsrxOhR?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

https://app.getquin.com/activity/irnbRsRNSi?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Current image

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bzwPg9HI/

As you can see here, unfortunately, it did not work. However, we have never seen a weekly trend shift, which is the most relevant statement for us to recognize a truly sustainable trend change.

However, it remains with me on the watch list because I find the chart still attractive only so far we have unfortunately no clear confirmations. If one had bought here, however, one would have been stopped out at a loss. Optimally again 0.5-1R.

$TSLA (-4.58%)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/QSOKCAAnqn?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

TSLA has fallen slightly lower than expected at that time, so maybe you were stopped out maybe not. However, the confirmation for a good trade came later anyway.

Current chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dAVCkstt/

If you had bought, you would be in any case very strong in the plus. TP1 and TP2 would have been hit by now and you would still have 30% of the position in the portfolio with a stop loss at breakeven and a take profit of 300.

$AAPL (+1.34%)

There was no chart here. And the short was therefore liquidated after take profit 1 on breakeven. Good example that it does not always work out as expected.

https://app.getquin.com/activity/MJKlRMNPxv?lang=de

In fact, I am still bearish on Apple and think we will give up very strongly again in the long term.

Tech shares post:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/kfGYQLdedI?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

$SHOP (+0.9%)

Price recovery has been achieved - let's see how low we correct - are actually currently bullish so my entry prices will probably not be reached.

As per last post. We are still at my recovery target of $50-65 Long term I still think we will correct sharply again.

$PYPL (-0.38%)

We were assuming an inevitable 62-55$ and an interesting price of 45$. Well that was 7 months ago I think everyone knows what happened with Paypal. 62-55$ worked out perfectly and we currently have a small recovery from the zone as well. Personally I see Paypal continuing to fall. My dear @BearStearnsCFO or also the generally known SOS spammer meant at that time, as well as with many of my current targets always that will not happen. I think so much about it... how did your Biontech trade actually go? You said you could trade the range super easy and without risk. Well shortly thereafter we are broken under it.

So much for small provocations within the community - but who permanently spams under everything SOS must... well I've already mentioned many times that this SOS spam is bullshit.

$SPOT (+0.22%)

Has not changed since my last update.

$SPYD (-0.29%)

In the meantime you can make an update here:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/vIFUcibKbt?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uZFF92Xy/

We've actually started to pick up the liquidity slowly here. I personally think that will continue. However, we are not yet clearly Bearish here. For this, a candle must first close below the marked lows. But currently everything is going according to plan.

$VOE (+1.03%)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/BuoOntxzof?lang=de

Update:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/BuoOntxzof?lang=de

After our Take Profit 1 and our move into the short entry area, we have corrected a bit for now. So that Take Profit 2 and 3 can still hit it is very important that the 28.5 hold. Otherwise, our short scenario comes to bear here completely and we see a strong correction. Who was long has taken profits and who is already short or plans to go short may also have a good trade opportunity.

Interesting chart - I will continue to monitor.

Digital Security:

https://app.getquin.com/activity/wHYKyvnqCf?lang=de

$LOCK (+0.86%)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DLKl9kdb/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EgSgRG6E/

As you can see, our bullish weekly scenario has fully worked out so far. The liquidity was adjusted our volume imbalance filled and currently we are correcting. Currently, we still have no structural change. Currently, I would be cautious with trades because it looks bullish for now. However, we have just filled the liquidity and the volume imbalance - that would also speak for a potential manipulation and a correction below the Lows and the occurrence of our Bearishen scenario. I will continue to monitor the stock.

$NET (+2.17%)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OZbI6QCe/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4gPdgdVN/

We have seen a very clear reaction on the order block here. Unfortunately, liquidity is still active therefore no clear bull scenario yet. Also, we do not have a structural change yet. However, as soon as we see this on a weekly basis, the share is highly interesting.

$CRWD (+2.85%)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/35bY3wFr/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QMaBN7CF/

It almost doesn't get any cleaner than this. Both the red and the blue have come out perfectly so far. Almost perfect reactions and corrections. Since I am almost surprised myself 😉

Currently, we are weekly but not yet bullish. As soon as we see a clear structural change here, I think the CRWD could also be highly interesting.

$PG (-1.24%)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/blGzZtuQpY?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yfNe3lNX/

Perfectly into our Snipe Entry and thereupon pumped up to our target - the liquidity at 154 approx. 15%. Currently, it looks to me more like a correction. The low at 141 must hold aufjedenfall so that a bullish scenario continues to prevail. Otherwise, the liquidity at 135 and possibly even 120 will probably be attacked.

$ABBV (+1.12%)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/kSzehgGVlI?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IXesJ7Cp/

We have broken through our missed sniper entry. And have attacked the planned liquidity. And moving towards our buy zone. Weekly Bearish broken and consequently still the optimal target of our Sniper Entry at $120-115.

$PFE (+1.49%)

https://app.getquin.com/activity/SiAwRmpvgg?lang=de

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JzcKiaOL/

We are continuing to fall on the bearish side. Our swing formation has not been completed and we are on the way to our marked liquidity. I personally find the stock interesting but for a purchase we need here first a really nice trend reversal on the weekly chart. Accordingly, the high at 40 and 42 is currently very interesting for us.

Conclusion:

So after this detailed post a big thank you if anyone actually read through this completely.

I would like to mention here again that TA always changes. I trade as often mentioned not according to any predictions, but in principle I have my structure - > My zones and levels where I expect reactions, and then I look if my structure changes into a trend change in my marked zones. So I trade practically always already, after the market has decided for a direction. Mostly, the prices always correct - even after a strong rise. Means usually one gets good Entries if one brings along simply something patience. So you also reduce losses, because you trade only after a confirmation and not trying to snipe the perfect point.

I actually think that my performance can be seen only with what was shared here on Getquin and also I have of course developed significantly since my first analyses.

I wish everyone a great start to the week. If you want to talk more about TA, feel free to add me on discord. Discord Tag: lonemelone

Greetings go out to all with whom I am regularly in contact on discord and of course to dear D.Duck 😉

PS: If someone wants to have a stock analyzed write it in the comments I choose one :)

voestalpine AG $VOE (+1.03%) with new record figures in the 2022/23 business year 💪

Sales revenue +22.1

EBIT +11.7%

Earnings before taxes +7.8%

Net financial debt -27.5

Dividend +25% to € 1.50/share

https://www.4investors.de/nachrichten/dgap-meldung.php?sektion=dgap&ID=122263

In the current month, a lot has happened again - the rebalancing in my value and momentum portfolio is also through. This time there are actually two companies from the DACH region and I have learned something new: Salzgitter produces "green" steel - exciting, but in my opinion still expandable.

As always, you can read most things directly here in the post at getquin. Here is my current blog post about it:

https://www.valueinvestments.ch/vermoegensverwaltung-estoppey-value-investments-value-und-momentum-rebalancing-maerz-2023

By the end of February, it was already becoming apparent that the recovery from early 2023 was faltering. Inflation concerns made investors cautious. On Friday, March 10, 2023, there was further bad news from the American market: Silicon Valley Bank filed for bankruptcy. This was a bank that specialized primarily in the financing of startups. Last Sunday saw the next bank closure: Signature Bank in New York had to cease operations. It was originally active in the real estate lending business. Newly, it had many deposits from companies in the field of cryptocurrencies. Both banks had a problem: their business was hardly diversified and so there were liquidity shortages and a so-called bank run, in which many customers wanted to withdraw their money at the same time.

However, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, FDIC - the institution responsible for deposit insurance in the US, so to speak - reacted immediately: it secured the deposits and ensured that these two events did not lead to further problems in the financial system.

On the following Monday, however, stock market prices plummeted across the board. But by Tuesday, everything was forgotten again and we saw sharply rising prices: it was apparently enough that inflation in the USA was in line with expectations and stagnated at around 6%. In other words, for eight months in a row, inflation in the US has been falling. This gives us hope that everything will not become too expensive and that interest rates will not rise too much. Nevertheless, the following week continued volatile and directly on the next weekend there was the next "banger" with the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS... the largest Swiss bank swallows the second largest - let's see if this goes well in the long term or an even greater cluster risk was created here.

Asset Management - Value & Momentum worldwide

Also in March 2023, the return in the Value and Momentum portfolio has decreased a bit. Today we see an average return of 14.4% and a return since start of 51%. Right now, the portfolio is not really getting off the ground. But the past shows that it doesn't take much for stock prices to rise sharply. No one can know what will happen tomorrow - for example, if you miss a year like 2021 on the stock market, you wipe out the entire return. Therefore: Staying with it is everything and what you need is patience.

Rebalancing Value and Momentum

Again this month I was able to find two companies that are undervalued and meet the strict quality criteria to be included in the portfolio:

Austrian Voestalpine AG, which specializes in steel processing, is a new addition: with 500 group companies and locations in 50 countries, it operates on 5 continents.Salzgitter AG is also active in steel production and processing and has its headquarters in Germany.

Both companies look back on a long history - Salzgitter was even founded as early as 1858. It was not until 1961 that the company was given its current name. Energy prices and steel prices have normalized somewhat, which benefits both companies. Both companies are very favorably valued and have high momentum.

ZIM Integrated Shipping was sold. The Israeli company is still favorably valued, but has completely lost its momentum. Only thanks to the high dividend payouts, the loss was "only" -31%. Which is still well behind expectations. Container shipping benefited from high demand and catch-up potential after the Corona pandemic. However, both have normalized and prices in this segment have fallen.

Asset Management - the newcomers to the portfolio

Salzgitter AG

As the company's name suggests, its headquarters are located in the German city of Salzgitter, which has a population of around 100,000. Salzgitter AG was given its current name in 1961, but the company's roots go back to 1858.

Salzgitter AG is divided into the following business units:

• Steel Production
• Steel Processing: Steel tubes and plate in particular.
• Trading: Own distribution to the end customer.
• Technology: Machines and equipment for filling and packaging of beverages.

As of 2021, Salzgitter AG supplied green flat steel products to plants of Mecedes-Benz AG, for example. The special feature of this is that the CO2 footprint could be reduced by over 66% to 75%: In order to save CO2, Salzgitter invested in the production of hydrogen as early as 2019. The electricity for hydrogen production is supplied by wind turbines on Salzgitter AG's premises. This ensures that the hydrogen is so-called green hydrogen, which is produced with renewable energy.

Voestalpine AG

Voestalpine AG is an Austrian company with its headquarters in Linz. Its foundation dates back to 1938. It was not until 1995 that the privatization took place with the Erstnotierung on the Viennese Börse took place.

The company processes, develops, produces and sells steel products internationally, but primarily in Austria and Europe. The main customers are railroad companies, the automotive industry, the construction industry, mechanical engineering, the oil and gas industry, but also the aerospace and energy technology sectors.

Today, Voestalpine is active in the following segments:

• Steel: Rolled as well as electrolytically galvanized and organically coated steel strip and heavy plate.
• High-performance metals: Special alloys of various kinds.
• Metals technology: Rails and switches, wires, seamless tubes and digital monitoring systems.
• Metal Forming: Special tubes and profiles, precision strip steel products, and ready-to-install system components made from pressed, stamped, and rolled sections.

$SZG (-0.9%)
$VOE (+1.03%)
$ZIM (-0.5%)
#value
#valueinvesting
#momentum
#investieren
#märkte
#nachhaltig
$CSGN
$UBSG (+0%)

Why "green" hydrogen can't live up to the hype. - Part 2

Values Community,

First of all, a big thank you that my last contribution on the subject of "hydrogen" was so well received or even sourly received.

In order to understand the context, I ask you to read part 1 as well, so that as few misunderstandings as possible occur.

https://app.getquin.com/activity/MDWIzGWvkU?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Here again 5 reasons why the stock market values "green" hydrogen too high. Numbering follows the last post.

Please take a more speculative view. Clairvoyance is not my superpower.

6. storage medium, no energy carrier!

Contrary to the perception of many, hydrogen does not serve as an energy carrier, but as a storage medium.

Hydrogen can be produced extremely cheaply via electrolysis in the event of overproduction on the power grid. Why? The efficiency does not matter at all. The electricity is surplus anyway and is not needed anywhere else.

In fact, we would already have this surplus of electricity in Germany today. Due to the high prices, however, it is probably more lucrative to export it than to promote domestic electrolysers with it. It doesn't matter whether the electricity is generated from renewable sources or fossil fuels, and thus at least laying the foundations for a sustainable hydrogen industry. I can recommend the negative success story of the highly praised "WunH2" project in cooperation with Siemens. $SIE (-0.29%) , can be recommended. The failure should, speculatively, have a signal effect.

https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2023/20230104_smard.html#:~:text=Deutschland%20war%20im%20Jahr%202022,um%2051%2C1%20Prozent%20gestiegen.

7. geopolitics - finally new dependencies again.

Hydrogen should serve the general public accordingly for "everything". Heating medium, alternative fuel, chemical raw material, ...

However, nobody questions the production sites. These will not be able to take place in the temperate climate zones. Europe is also generally quite limited due to population density. This means that production sites are already being relocated to more southerly countries, such as those bordering the Mediterranean or African states. There are also concrete plans for hydrogen pipelines to Europe. Algeria, Angola, Egypt, ... These are all countries that are generally known for their legal security and economic obligations.

But what is the disadvantage, although it would of course be more efficient because of the solar intensity? We are once again becoming dependent, but in the case of an "energy turnaround" this will hit us much harder than the last time we were dependent on Russia.

None of today's investors can say in retrospect that they did not know this. $PLUG (+9.5%) are already reaping the fruits of great investments, especially in Egypt, according to one magazine, or even the German flagship company $PNE3 (-0.56%) with its involvement in South Africa.

8. safety first!

Hydrogen is probably the most dangerous gas in terms of explosiveness that could be handled. From a volume concentration of 18%, it inevitably leads to an explosion on contact with atmospheric oxygen! Furthermore, it is still flammable from 4% volume concentration.

Who wants to be around in the event of a leak from a pipe, container, motor vehicle, etc.? Volunteers? - Please don't!

Examples for the extent of such a reaction is for example the crash of the Hindenburg. Here, however, "only" a fire occurred, because the concentration of oxygen in the air was too low.

A possible solution would be the mixture with nitrogen. However, according to the risks involved, this would mean that a volume concentration ratio of approx. 95/5 would have to exist. This aspect alone again speaks in favor of the air separation giants Linde $LIN , Air Liquide $AI (-0.22%) , Air Products $APD (+0.04%) or also Nippon $4091 (+0.26%) to name a Japanese company, which would find new sales opportunities in the field of nitrogen for safety reasons.

9. storage and capacities

A topic that is very rarely addressed, but is part of every value chain - storage.

It's not as simple as people like to think: "Let's just do away with natural gas and use the existing infrastructure for hydrogen." Nonsense! Hydrogen and natural gas are fundamentally different in their makeup! Hydrogen is the element with the highest energy density, but it is also the most finely porous. This means: Hydrogen would still volatilize in existing storage facilities because the porosity, i.e. the ratio of the void volume to the total volume, of the materials is for the most part insufficient in Germany.

Hydrogen is transported and stored in liquid form. Hydrogen is compressed to 700bar and cooled in isolation at -250 degrees Celsius.

This would benefit plant manufacturers such as Sulzer $SUN (+0.51%) , Voestalpine $VOE (+1.03%) or Hexagon Composites $HEX (-0.82%) .

In context, this means that the infrastructure must first be created before we can even think about regenerative hydrogen in the future. In my contribution to Vorwerk $VH2 (+0.73%) from which I would advise against at the moment, I also explained profiteers of the infrastructure change. For example Vinci $DG (-0.15%) , Ferrovial $FER , Hochtief $HOT (+0.35%) or Strabag $STR (+0.57%) .

Realistically, it will be in Germany only in 20+ years, which for me again does not reflect the current stock market values of the H2 companies.

For the time being, I exclude the adsorption of hydrogen to solid or liquid media. From the current point of view, it does not seem to be a mass solution for the whole society.

10. mobility in individual traffic

The biggest dichotomy, with many still seeing renewable hydrogen in the race, is private individual transport.

The electric car will dominate private households and rightly so! The big disadvantage of the hydrogen car here is efficiency.

While electric cars can use electricity without further conversion and have an efficiency of between 70% and 90%, the form of energy in the hydrogen car must be converted several times.

Here, green hydrogen is produced with the help of electrolysis. For transport, this is compressed and liquefied. Only then is the vehicle refueled. The back reaction of the electrolysis now takes place by means of a fuel cell. An illustration of this can be found in the appendix.

Nevertheless, it is of course up to you to decide which fuel form you will prefer in the future, and this is in no way intended as an appeal to drive an electric car in the future. Compared to other carriers, however, it is the most sensible option in terms of efficiency.

I hereby expressly ask you to note that this is exclusively about the passenger car in this point. For reasons of resource conservation alone, I am in favor of the fuel cell as a drive system for freight transport on roads and railways, as well as in aviation and at sea.

Further energy sources and possibilities of the future power mix I will explain in further contributions.

Of course, if there is also interest, the pro-hydrogen arguments can also be brought to light in further articles. Because these outweigh without question. Nevertheless, the hype, as it is currently traded, is simply unjustified and at least 20 years too early. The stock market may trade the future, but dreaming will be punished.

Planned and already in process is:

- Why it still makes sense to invest in oil and gas producers for 30+ years.

- Waste-to-Fuel - Away with the garbage!

- Regenerative methanol production and the real opportunities for C02 reduction.

Analysis to $VOE (+1.03%) a wish from @TomTurboInvest

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ty4TL3Ma/

Foreword

Hello everyone :)

Today we are looking at Voestalpine together. I was a little surprised at first because the ticker on Tradingview differs from the one here in Getquin. I have now taken the XETRA chart.

I will try in the future to create my analysis always in the same scheme.

Analysis:

Note:

Very important for every TA is that you analyze from HTF > to LTF. For daytrades the timeframes 1h - 15min - 5min are very interesting. For swing trades 1D - 4h - 1h. And for longer position trades I basically look at the monthly, weekly and daily chart.

Monthly chart:

Structure:

The structure on the monthly chart is Bullish.

The Corona low took out pretty much all the liquidity possible on the buyside (below) at that time. Accordingly, this structure is Low Protected. This means the market/price has very little incentive to go below it again.

This is exactly what happened. As you can see we bounced off our Corona low order block in August/September with a very strong impulse.

(By the way, my next info post will be about order blocks - I tell you order blocks on individual stocks is a gamechanger.)

We have 2 enormously strong monthly candles - a small retrace and then directly our current very strong candle. That's what I call a rebound - by the way known as V-Shape Recovery - Optimally we would have here no retrace but that is often a very bullish signal.

Accordingly, status quo:

As explained on the chart, our relevant structural low was never broken. Accordingly, we have never been bearish monthly. The optimal entry for a short contrary to our structure is at around 33.5€. However, I would never recommend this to beginners in particular, because further and more advanced confirmation methods are necessary.

Accordingly, I expect a "relatively" strong reaction in the marked order block around the 33.5€. So that we can completely confirm our bullish momentum again and go to ATH course, we must break 40.3€ on the monthly chart (Important: Body Close).

Also at the marked points with MOP we can either expect a Bearishe reaction or evaluate as a Bullishes signal if they are broken with a Body Close.

A final TP could be either at the volume imbalance at 47.4€ or if you really want to hold long term also just above the ATH.

Liquidity:

I don't have to say much about liquidity here. The main liquidity here is above the Monthly High to Break, the ATH and the current low in the order block at €17.

I currently consider the liquidity at 40.46€ and below the low to be the most attractive. So those are both potential reversal options. So if we go below our current low but don't close the month with a body that would be potentially bullish. If we break 40.46€ but don't close above it with a body, that would be potentially bearish.

Weekly chart:

There is not much to say about the weekly chart and also the relevant levels are rather on the monthly chart. Therefore, pay particular attention to the levels of the monthly chart.

But the structure is aufjedenfall Bullish.

Conclusion:

So we expect a potential correction at our order block between 35 and 32€. Also at the levels 32, 38 and 43€. It is important that we close the "Monthly High to Break" with a body. If this is not the case, a potential reversal scenario comes into effect where the target would be the liquidity below the current lows at 16.8 and 16.3€. The marked order blocks (in gray) below our current price are potential support levels at which we expect an upward reaction. We would like to see the green box at 23.8-22.6 filled. But it is also a support level.

@TomTurboInvest

So for you to finish, here are my take profits if I were in the trade.

SL already long ago on Breakeven or in profit

I would probably have taken some profit now and rather left my SL at breakeven instead of in profit.

Definitely 1st take profit should take place in the area of 32.44 to 35.16€. I would simply wait for a stronger reaction on the daily chart or take a part out directly at 32.44€.

Take profit would be at the level 38.36€ or if you are a little more motivated 40.3€. Then I would wait to see if the high on the monthly chart is broken impulsively.

If yes - continue to hold the rest until 48€

If no - SL tighten more definitely in profit.

If you still have a residual position after 48€, you can hold it until the ATH.

If you are of course very motivated and want to swing-trade the whole thing, you can always add something to your position in any serious correction.

So last but not least a little disclaimer as always:

This is not investment advice! I only provide my opinion here. I also have trades that do not run according to plan. Anyone who tells you he has a 99% on 50-100 trades is lying.

If you would like to have your stock analyzed like this or you have suggestions for improving the structure of the analysis, please let me know. I am also happy to answer any questions.

Otherwise until next time. :) Have a good start into the week.

Hello all :)

I was asked yesterday if I could possibly collect my posts in one and pin it.

I will summarize both the info posts and the analysis here and always update everything with updates.

Accordingly, enjoy reading :)

Info Posts:

Info Post No. 1

Why does the market move the way it does.

https://app.getquin.com/activity/HEjsMIIAQo?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Info Post No.2

Structure part 1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/bquVkZztPm?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Info Post No.3

Structure part 2

https://app.getquin.com/activity/iLqaPIjCXb?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Multi timeframe structure on meta example:

https://getqu.in/0xbRoM/

Info Post No.4

Power of 3 / Introduction to liquidity

https://app.getquin.com/activity/DBGmdGnhmh?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Info Post No.5

Order blocks part 1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/PDFeqSvHjS?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Updates:

March 2023

https://getqu.in/H5B9NLIJ4MB7/OUXQELniq0/

July 2023

https://getqu.in/JAoGGd/

Analyses:

$YOU (+0.31%) About You:

Analysis No.1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/ryqJsrxOhR?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Update No.1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/irnbRsRNSi?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

$BYW6 (+3.99%)

Analysis No.1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/gWgmerEXZc?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Update No.1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/EvZhmLmgMY?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

$SPYD (-0.29%)

Analysis No.1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/vIFUcibKbt?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

$VOE (+1.03%)

Analysis No.1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/BuoOntxzof?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Digital Security

Analysis:

No. 1

https://getqu.in/H5B9NLIJ4MB7/eFzNNTGaIO/

DividendProject:

TestDepot:

https://app.getquin.com/dashboard/MZxuSKkRDL?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

Analytics:

$PG (-1.24%) :

No. 1

https://app.getquin.com/activity/blGzZtuQpY?lang=de&utm_source=sharing

$ABBV (+1.12%)

No. 2

https://getqu.in/H5B9NLIJ4MB7/9jDh2w8fCA/

$PFE (+1.49%)

No. 3

https://getqu.in/H5B9NLIJ4MB7/rHeXMG9g4w/