Robinhodl · 2024-11-14T12:41:50.188655Z

Warum hat der Markt keine Angst vor der Powell-Rede? Klar, die Inflationsdaten kamen ziemlich genau in den Erwartungen, vielleicht einen Tick drüber. Aber ich sehe Powell heute rhetorisch hawkish auftreten. Die „rote Welle“ hat ordentlich Euphorie entfacht, und durch Trump wird die Fed vielleicht restriktiver agieren als unter Harris. Dieses Jahr war die Asset-Inflation ja ziemlich hoch, das müsste doch jetzt langsam (so 6–18 Monate verzögert) auch auf die Kerninflation durchschlagen. Derzeit sehen die Wettmärkte eine 82%-Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine Zinssenkung im Dezember – aber wäre das heute nicht die Gelegenheit für Powell, den Markt langsam in Richtung Vorsicht zu lenken? Wie seht ihr das, ist das derzeit überhaupt wirklich relevant oder bin ich komplett falsch? $TSLA $MC $NVDA $ASML $PLTR $BTC $ETH $VIX $SPY $TLT $TIP

@Robinhodl

2Mon·

Why is the market not afraid of the Powell speech?

Sure, the inflation data came in pretty much in line with expectations, maybe a tad above. But I see Powell being rhetorically hawkish today. The "red wave" has sparked a lot of euphoria, and Trump may make the Fed more restrictive than under Harris. Asset inflation has been quite high this year, which should now slowly (with a delay of 6-18 months) feed through to core inflation. The betting markets currently see an 82% probability of a rate cut in December - but wouldn't today be an opportunity for Powell to slowly steer the market towards caution?

What's your take on this, is this really relevant at all at the moment or am I completely wrong?

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4 Comments

PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

2Mon

The colors trigger me hard!
J. Powell must be green because he prints the dollar.
And Trump has to be orange because... he's orange 😅

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Robinhodl@Robinhodl

2Mon

@PowerWordChill You're right, that's the intention. I'm brand new and have 0 followers/reach, so I have to work with every means to generate interactions/reach - especially with topics that probably don't interest the majority. It's just not a when BTC 100k question hahah

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Metis@Metis

2Mon

@Robinhodl You don't have to use any means to get reach here. Qualitative contributions are enough ;)

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Robinhodl@Robinhodl

2Mon

@Metis Hopefully I've checked now too, was probably a bit biased. It was my first post, and I wasn't expecting over 2k impressions. Probably @PowerWordChill was a big contributor though. Thx for the good comment!
Ironically, my question has answered itself in the meantime.

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