We would frame this thematically, rather than as tips. $BTC (-2.81%) The core position remains—best understood as long-term monetary hedging rather than as a risky investment. It has proven remarkably resilient amid the Fed’s shift toward a restrictive monetary policy. $ETH (-3.9%) is the direct beneficiary of the tokenization trend and serves as a settlement infrastructure—we evaluate it based on its staking yields. One name that illustrates where the market structure is heading is $HYPE (-0.45%): Prior to the recent SpaceX listing, its SPCX perpetual contract traded over $1.30 billion in 24 hours, and its pre-IPO complex has open positions of around $291 million and a cumulative volume of $6 billion. This illustrates that on-chain venues are becoming true drivers of price discovery for assets that traditional markets either severely ration or fail to price continuously.

$BITC (-2.76%)

$CETH (-3.6%)

$LIQD (+2.21%)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal, oil prices have fallen significantly, and are back at pre-crisis levels. As a result, inflation concerns are taking a back seat for now—and investors are once again focusing more heavily on artificial intelligence. Sentiment on the stock markets is correspondingly robust, while the crypto market has seemed comparatively lackluster since October.

Some of the recent ETF outflows should therefore be viewed less as a fundamental shift away from $BTC (-2.81%) but rather a reallocation: capital is flowing into semiconductor stocks, AI beneficiaries, and major IPOs. For the Federal Reserve, the key question remains whether AI is already delivering real productivity gains—or whether the markets are primarily anticipating future effects.

Crypto currently seems unspectacular. The key point is this: the asset class hasn’t disappeared; it’s searching for a new, more use-case-driven narrative. Beneath the surface, tokenization is gaining momentum—with equity and commodity perpetuals, pre-IPO shares, prediction markets, and, in the future, tokenized portfolios.

$BITC (-2.76%)

Bitcoin remains highly dependent on interest rates in the short term. Although the Fed kept its benchmark interest rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, it struck a clearly hawkish tone: inflation remains elevated, uncertainty is high, and interest rate cuts are not on the horizon. This weighs on liquid assets such as $BTC (-2.81%).

Nevertheless, crypto is showing relative strength. Following the Fed’s latest signals, Bitcoin fell by only 1.6 percent, while stocks also declined significantly. At the same time, outflows from digital asset ETPs slowed to $149 million.

Hyperliquid remains an exciting development: the SpaceX-linked perpetual contract reached a daily trading volume of over $1.3 billion. On-chain markets are increasingly becoming genuine venues for price discovery.

$BITC (-2.76%)

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

Geopolitical Easing Brings Relief to the Markets

The recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran ends the four-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This alleviates the massive inflationary pressure that had still weighed on the Fed’s first meeting under Kevin Warsh. As risk assets and supply chains stabilize, geopolitical tensions are receding into the background; attention is now turning once again to massive investments in AI infrastructure.

Capital outflows weigh on $BTC (-2.81%)
in the short term

$BTC (-2.81%) , and the broader crypto market has recently come under pressure due to changes in monetary policy as well as high capital lock-up ahead of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs). For the first time since the launch of the #bitcoinETFs—previous outflows were mostly the result of unwinding carry trades. Interestingly, our proprietary market indicator—which aggregates over a dozen individual signals—is approaching levels that have historically and reliably coincided with major market bottoms.

Falling inflation bolsters the $BTC (-2.81%)outlook

Going forward, the strongest driver of inflation is likely to lose momentum, while the spread of AI technologies could have a structurally deflationary effect in the medium term. This interplay is likely to $BTC (-2.81%) provide a noticeable tailwind in the coming months. Since an increasing number of financial advisors are also being authorized to recommend this to their clients $BTC (-2.81%) , the current market level offers an excellent basis for strategic positioning.

$BITC (-2.76%)

$BTC (-2.81%) rebounded this week to around $65,800, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This was triggered by a preliminary agreement reached on June 14 between the United States and Iran to suspend hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Just under 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes through this waterway. Its reopening therefore pushed the oil price down by nearly five percent to just under $81 per barrel. For us, however, the monetary policy signal is more important than the immediate market reaction.

Falling energy prices are easing inflationary pressures, which had recently caused central banks to remain cautious. This creates more room for interest rate cuts and lower real yields in the second half of the year. This channel has a #bitcoin particularly strongly. As a long-term store of value, $BTC (-2.81%) significantly more sensitive to the direction of real yields and global liquidity than to short-term fluctuations in risk sentiment. Therefore, a credible easing of the geopolitical situation is far more important than the headline alone would suggest.

$BITC (-2.76%)

$BTC (-2.81%) Bitcoin is currently under pressure less due to crypto-specific factors than due to geopolitics, interest rates and liquidity rotation. A total of USD 5.8 billion has recently flowed out of digital asset investment products - a clear drop in sentiment, but no structural damage. The interest rate market is decisive: instead of one or two interest rate cuts, the market is now pricing in around 40 basis points of interest rate hikes. At the same time, AI is withdrawing capital from other segments. Bitcoin now needs two things above all: more clarity in the Iran conflict and a turnaround in the interest rate outlook. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)

$BITC (-2.76%)

The equity markets remain in a celebratory mood, buoyed by the AI-driven rally. Bond markets, on the other hand, are increasingly focusing on geopolitical tensions and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer the disruption lasts, the more inflationary effects are likely to build up - via rising oil prices and shortages of key commodities such as helium. Market expectations are therefore shifting away from interest rate cuts towards possible renewed interest rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the rolling 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the US two-year yield has fallen to extremely low levels. Historically, such divergences rarely last long - and risky assets such as Bitcoin are beginning to price in the fact that the interest rate markets could ultimately be right.

Interestingly, the recent $BTC (-2.81%) -rally appears to have been driven primarily by strong ETF inflows and continued buying of digital asset treasuries, while activity in the derivatives market has remained comparatively subdued. ETF flows have turned negative in recent days, but funding rates for perpetual futures have risen significantly. This indicates that market activity is picking up again after several months of subdued trading conditions.

$BITC (-2.76%)

Frank Thelen paints a terrifying picture of a sudden crypto-collapse triggered by quantum computers. CoinShares' Bitcoin Research Lead Christopher Bendiksen comes to a different conclusion - for three reasons:

First, the vast majority of $BTC (-2.81%)-addresses today are constructed in such a way that the public key is not visible. Even if quantum computers were able to crack individual keys, there would only be a tiny time window of around ten minutes in which a transaction hangs in the network. Bendiksen believes this is unrealistic, even over decades.

Secondly, only a small, clearly definable part of the supply is actually at risk - especially old pay-to-public key addresses. This affects around eight percent of all coins, of which only a fraction (around ten thousand Bitcoin) would be relevant to the market in the short term. Even with extremely optimistic assumptions about quantum progress, an attacker could only work off the rest over many decades.

Thirdly, Bitcoin is adaptable. A soft fork could introduce quantum-resistant signatures and new address types to which users could gradually migrate. For Bendiksen, Bitcoin is therefore not a victim of quantum technology - but a system facing a long-term engineering problem that can be solved.

$BITC (-2.76%)

Digital investment products saw outflows of USD 1.07 billion - the first negative week in seven weeks and the third largest weekly outflow of 2026, surpassed only by two weeks at the end of January. This likely reflects renewed geopolitical risk-off sentiment related to developments around Iran, with outflows concentrated mainly in $BTC (-2.81%).

The news surrounding the CLARITY Act appears to have improved sentiment at the margin: Eleven assets continued to see notable inflows, and Thursday was positive with inflows of $174 million. Altcoins held up remarkably well. $XRP (-4.15%) The largest asset class, the cryptocurrency, saw inflows of 67.6 million US dollars, $SOL (-2.78%) The inflow of USD 55.1 million - for both, the momentum accelerated compared to the previous weeks.

$BITC (-2.76%)
$XRRL (-4.22%)
$SLNC (-2.4%)

$BTC (-2.81%) moved in a narrow trading range between 80,000 and 82,500 US dollars last week. Four important reference levels are close to the current price and can be clearly divided into resistance and support zones.

Above the current price, two levels act as resistance. The 200-day average is around USD 82,500. The average entry price for investors in US spot$BTC (-2.81%)-ETFs is around USD 83,000, reflecting the strong inflows of the past year. Together, these levels form a zone in which investors waiting for the break-even point tend to sell.

Below the current price, two other levels act as support. The "true market mean", i.e. the average purchase price of on-chain holders, is USD 78,200. Strategy, the world's largest on-chain holder of #bitcoinhas an average purchase price of USD 75,500. A break below one of these levels would put these market participants in the red.

For the bulls, a clear weekly close above USD 83,000 would bring ETF investors back into the profit zone and improve momentum. A clear rejection below USD 78,000, on the other hand, could trigger further selling pressure. Until one side breaks out, the trading range will remain.

$BITC (-2.76%)