The Geopolitical Risk Index has just risen sharply—a warning sign. The historical data (since 1985) is clear: the higher the geopolitical risk, the higher the inflation. In the worst-case scenario, we can expect inflation of 5.7 percent. Normally, in times of crisis like these, safe-haven assets such as $GOLD and $BTC (-1.96%) rise significantly. But in 2026, things are different—both assets have significantly underperformed despite rising risks. For investors, this means that traditional crisis-hedging strategies are not currently working reliably.
