1D·

Has a replacement for Novo Nordisk been found?

Hey there, dear community✌️


Today I’m back with another company spotlight! This company has been on my watchlist for a while now, and I was actually supposed to feature it a few months ago, but due to a lack of time, I kept putting it off.

Today, it’s all about the pharmaceutical sector—more specifically, a potential replacement for my $NOVO B (+2,59%) position.


Let’s go🚀


It’s Ligand Pharma $LGND (-3,07%)


🧬 Ligand Pharmaceuticals $LGND (-3,07%) : The License to Make Money in the Biotech World

Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) is not a traditional pharmaceutical company that pours billions into its own risky clinical trials. It’s the industry’s “royalty machine.” While other biotech firms put all their eggs in one basket, Ligand operates purely as a royalty aggregator, holding the rights to technologies and contracts that make hundreds of drugs possible in the first place.

attachment

1. The Business Model: The “Toll Booth” of Drug Discovery 🛣️


Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) acts as a financier and license aggregator for the entire pharmaceutical industry.


The Mechanism: Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) offers platforms such as Captisol (a technology that makes drugs soluble and thus stable) as well as targeted capital funding for biotech companies. In return, Ligand receives milestone payments and—even more importantly—ongoing revenue shares (royalties).



The ingenious part: Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) does not bear the costs of clinical trials, regulatory approval, or marketing. The partners handle that. Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) simply collects a percentage of gross revenue once the drug is on the market.



Growth driver: “Royalty Aggregation Pipeline”: Through targeted M&A transactions (such as the acquisition of APEIRON or the takeover of the XOMA royalty portfolio), Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) access to over 100 ongoing partner projects. Instead of betting on a single drug, the company benefits from broad exposure across the entire sector.

attachment

2. Key Figures 📊


Market capitalization: approx. $5.8–6.0 billion (an established, highly profitable mid-cap).


Gross margin: Nearly 100% in the pure royalty segment (total gross margin ~88.5%, including Captisol material sales). Since there are virtually no direct manufacturing costs, the majority of licensing revenue flows directly into profit.



Diversification & Growth Drivers: Revenue comes from established blockbusters such as Kyprolis (Amgen $AMGN (+1,12%) ) as well as new growth stars such as Filspari (Travere) and Ohtuvayre (Verona Pharma / Merck ecosystem).



Balance Sheet Strength: Massive net cash cushion. With over $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and investments, Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) uses this capital strategically for share buybacks or to acquire new royalty rights from smaller biotech companies.


Lean Management & Profitability: An extremely lean workforce structure with an ROIC of >24% and FCF margins exceeding 40%, as partners handle the operational work (clinical trials/sales).

attachment
attachment
attachment


3. Why is this stock exciting? 🚀

🚀1. Risk Asymmetry: If a partner’s drug fails in Phase 3, the impact on Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) only minimally, as they have over 100 other irons in the fire. In the event of success, they benefit directly from global sales.


🚀2. Beneficiary of Interest Rate Cuts: Biotech companies need capital. In an environment of falling interest rates, partners’ pipelines flourish, while cash-strapped developers are more willing to assign future royalty rights to Ligand in exchange for an upfront payment.


🚀3. Captisol Moat: Captisol technology is an industry standard. Without this excipient, many life-saving drugs could not be absorbed by the body at all—this creates high switching costs for partners.


🚀4. Operating Leverage: Since the lean holding company’s fixed costs remain virtually constant, every new approval of a partner drug leads to a disproportionately large increase in profits (operating leverage).


Additional Insider Facts (The “Deep Dive” Bonus) 💡


The Portfolio Principle: Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) operates similarly to a royalty-based pharmaceutical ETF or a specialized, publicly traded licensing fund.


Strategic Focus (Pure Play): Following the spin-off of OmniAb (2022), Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) has consistently transformed itself into a pure-play royalty aggregator. This makes the balance sheet more transparent and focused.


Approval Pipeline: Numerous FDA decisions and Phase 3 data from the partner network are expected over the next 12 to 24 months—each positive approval acts like a “free lottery ticket” for shareholders.

attachment
attachment




5. Risks ⚠️

❗️Patent Expiration: When patents for key technologies or older flagship drugs expire, new royalty rights must fill the gap.


❗️Concentration risk in the top segment: A significant portion of current revenue depends on just a few major drugs. Setbacks with these anchor drugs are felt by Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) in its top line.


❗️M&A misallocation: Ligand $LGND (-3,07%) is growing rapidly through acquisitions (such as the XOMA portfolio). If too much capital is paid for overvalued royalty rights, the overall return (ROIC) suffers.


My personal conclusion & Reaper Bonus🧐

In my search for a suitable, high-quality alternative to Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+2,59%) , Ligand Pharmaceuticals has currently emerged as my absolute top candidate. Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+2,59%) remains, without a doubt, an exceptional quality company in my view. I’m still holding the position for the next few quarters; after that, I’ll decide what to do with it. Ligand, $LGND (-3,07%) , on the other hand, offers the perfect counterpart here: a lean, high-margin, asset-light model, a well-stocked cash cushion, and a broad range of growth drivers that scale completely independently of the performance of any single blockbuster.


💀Jack’s Verdict:

Ligand is like the landlord of a casino. Ligand doesn’t care whether the player at the table wins or loses—they get their rent. While the biotech bros burn through their money in companies hoping for a miracle, Ligand sits back on a $1.3 billion cash mountain and lets Pfizer, Amgen, and Merck do the heavy lifting. It might not be the sexy story for the headlines, but it’s the story that reliably pays the bills in the end. If you hate the volatility of individual biotech stocks but love the sector’s margins, this is the place for you."


Rating: 🟡 WAIT AND SEE / TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIPs

BUY-ON-DIP RANGE: $230–$240

Score: 9.0/10


@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Tenbagger2024
@Raketentoni
@Stocktective
@Multibagger
@Dividendenopi
@SAUgut777
@PikaPika0105
@NichtRelevant and, of course, everyone else!

17
22 Comentários

imagem de perfil
The idea of a royalty aggregator sounds good at first glance. However, as a matter of principle, I don't invest in pharma because I'm concerned about the unpredictability of clinical trials and the patent cliff. I tend to focus on medtech or CDMOs.
6
imagem de perfil
@PikaPika0105 I get it! Everyone has their own strategy 😬 In the medtech sector, I find Asahi Intecc really interesting 🤔
imagem de perfil
@Aktienhauptmeister Ohhh, just imagine that!!
1
imagem de perfil
@PikaPika0105 I'll give it a try in the next few days 🫡 But I'm sure you already know Asahi 👀
imagem de perfil
@Aktienhauptmeister Actually, no 😅 I only know Asahi Kasei and Asahi Group…. I've never read anything about them in the Nikkei or other publications either. But then again, it is a mid-cap company, and those tend to get less and less attention.
imagem de perfil
@PikaPika0105 Oh, okay 👀 Then I'll just finish up the presentation for you 😬🫡
imagem de perfil
@Aktienhauptmeister Take your time!
1
imagem de perfil
I don't want to add pharma stocks to my portfolio again. All this uncertainty surrounding approvals, clinical trials, testing phases, and so on is just too much for me. 😉
3
imagem de perfil
@TradingHase You already mentioned that 😬 Everyone has their own strategy 👍
2
imagem de perfil
@Aktienhauptmeister That's true. You can make some serious money in this industry, but even if you're really convinced a product will work, that doesn't mean it'll be a success. 👍🏼
2
imagem de perfil
@TradingHase Yes, I think the risk with Ligand is manageable. It doesn't carry any risk related to development studies or anything else.
2
imagem de perfil
@Aktienhauptmeister It's definitely not your typical pharmaceutical stock. I'm curious to see how this plays out and whether it will live up to expectations 🔥
2
imagem de perfil
Here is a detailed, fact-based comparison and analysis of Brian’s (@Aktienhauptmeister) analysis of **Ligand Pharmaceuticals ($LGND)** based on current financial data, Investing Pro reports, and weekly chart signals.

---

### 1. Business Model Check: Is LGND really a “replacement” for Novo Nordisk? 🧬

**Answer: No, not functionally or structurally.**

* **Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B):** Is an integrated pharmaceutical company with its own research, clinical trials, manufacturing facilities (factories), and direct sales of finished pharmaceutical products (focus: GLP-1/diabetes/obesity).

* **Ligand Pharmaceuticals ($LGND):** Is purely a **royalty aggregator and licensor** (approx. 40 employees). Ligand does not engage in its own drug manufacturing or conduct its own late-stage clinical trials; instead, it funds projects and provides Captisol technology to collect licensing revenue (royalties).


**Conclusion on the comparison:** Ligand is not a substitute for Novo Nordisk, but a completely different financial product—more comparable to a publicly traded holding company or licensing agency for biotech firms than to a manufacturing pharmaceutical giant.

---

### 2. Fact-Check of Key Figures: Where Brian is RIGHT & where he is WRONG 📊

#### ✅ Confirmed Statements:

1. **Market Capitalization:**
* **Brian’s Statement:** approx. 5.8–6.0 billion USD.

* **Fact:** **Correct.** The market capitalization currently stands at **$5.7 billion** (or approximately $6.13 billion at its peak).


2. **Gross Margin:**
* **Brian’s statement:** Nearly 100% in the royalty segment, approx. 88.5% overall.

* **Fact:** **Essentially correct.** The overall TTM gross margin is **83.2%**. In the pure licensing business (royalties), there are virtually no manufacturing costs, resulting in a margin of ~95% in that segment.


3. **Cash Flow Profitability:**
* **Brian’s statement:** FCF margins of over 40%.

* **Fact:** **Correct.** Operating cash flow on a TTM basis was $123.5 million on revenue of $274.5 million (operating cash flow margin of ~45%).


#### ❌ Refuted / False Statements:

1. **Cash Reserves & Debt (The Biggest Misconception):**
* **Brian’s Statement:** *“Massive net cash reserves. With over $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents..."*

* **Fact:** **False.** Ligand **does not** have $1.3 billion in net equity/net cash. As of Q1 2026, cash and cash equivalents/investments totaled approximately $780 million (plus a $200 million credit line = ~$1 billion in available capital). In addition, Ligand already had **$452 million in debt** on its balance sheet. In June 2026, Ligand raised **$700 million through convertible notes** to pay for the **$739 million XOMA acquisition** in cash in July 2026. The company is thus moderately indebted and does not have an uncommitted $1.3 billion net cash cushion.

2. **ROIC (Return on Invested Capital):**
* **Brian’s statement:** *“ROIC of >24%”*

* **Fact:** **Incorrect.** According to the data sheet, the ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) is **7.29%**. Brian may be confusing the return on total capital with the return on equity (ROCE is 22.0%, ROE is 17.1%).

---

### 3. Weekly Chart Analysis & Valuation 📈

A look at the price of **€249.39 / $287.54** and the weekly chart indicators:

```
Price (USD) $326.60 ───┐ (52-week high)
│ \
$287.54 ───┼───┴────────────────────── (Current Price)

$237.95 ───┴──────────────── (InvestingPro Fair Value: -17.2%)

```

#### Technical Analysis (Weekly Basis):

* **1-Year Performance:** Extremely strong performance at **+116.7%** (over a 5-year period: +304.5%).

* **Trend & Indicators:**
* The stock is trading **134.8% above the 200-day moving average** and **106.3% above the 50-day moving average**.


* Short-term consolidation (-6.3% over the past month).


* At this level, the oscillators and technical indicators signal a clear **"Strong Sell"**, as the stock has become overheated following its 100% rally.

#### Valuation & Fair Value:

* **P/E Ratio / Valuation Multiples:** LTM P/E of **37.1x**, forward P/E for 2026 at **29.5x**, EV/EBITDA at **39.0x**.


* **Fair Value (InvestingPro):** The calculated fair value is **$237.95 (€199.51)**, which corresponds to a downside potential of **-17.2%**.


* **Brian’s profit-taking limit ($230 – $240):** **Confirmed.** Brian’s set profit-taking limit matches exactly with InvestingPro’s purely mathematical fair value ($237.95).

---

### 4. Summary Response to Brian 🎯

1. **Quality of the Business Model:** Ligand’s royalty model, with a ~83% gross margin and high scalability due to the XOMA acquisition (200+ licensed assets), is fundamentally strong.


2. **Correction of Balance Sheet Figures:** Brian’s claim of “$1.3 billion in net cash” is incorrect. The XOMA acquisition ($739 million) was largely financed by a $700 million convertible bond, which increased the debt burden.


3. **Correction to the Comparison:** Ligand is not a substitute for Novo Nordisk, but rather a licensing holding company.


4. **Timing & Assessment:** At current levels ($287.54), the stock is highly valued (forward P/E ratio ~29.5x) and technically overbought. Brian’s assessment *“Wait and see / take advantage of pullbacks”* as well as his buy limit at **$230–$240** are, in terms of fair value ($237.95), objectively and entirely correct.
2
imagem de perfil
Thanks for the introduction. This could be a good investment if small biotech companies seem too risky—after all, their success often hinges on just one or two drugs that are still in the development stage.

I myself have two of the established heavyweights in my portfolio— $AMGN (Amgen) and $PFE (Pfizer)—so I’m already “saturated” in that sector. I expect the large corporations to acquire the small innovation drivers at the right moment, since they closely monitor the market, the latest studies, and the potential.
2
imagem de perfil
@NichtRelevant I've found this interesting for quite some time now, but the stock just keeps going up and up 🤦🏼‍♂️ Ligand doesn't bear the risk of the clinical trials itself, so I think it's manageable
1
imagem de perfil
Thanks for the recommendation—I've added it to my watchlist too. And as others have said, and as you mentioned, if the stock price drops significantly again, it might be worth considering buying in 👍
P.S.: But overall, I like this company better than just about any other pharmaceutical company
2
imagem de perfil
We've already talked about this at length here, my friend!🫶🏻 Great value—the better replacement, in my opinion.😁
1
imagem de perfil
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I'm just waiting for a sharp drop—then I'll strike 👀
2
imagem de perfil
It's already gotten pretty hot. At the current price, it's not really attractive to me.
1
imagem de perfil
@jkb92 Definitely—I'm also waiting for a sharp pullback before I jump in 😉
2
Add me to your watchlist for now 🫶😬 Thanks for the introduction
1
imagem de perfil
I'm not replacing anything—I'm staying in…
Participar na conversa