New month, new luck! How did the model perform in July?
Deposit value 27.06.25: €76,800
Asset performance 07/25
3xGLD: -2.2%
3xQQQ: +11.2%
BTC: +14.0%
Monthly performance (Wikifolio certificate): +7,4%
YTD performance 2025 (Wikifolio certificate): -3,1%
Portfolio value 27.06.25: 87,100€ (+13.4%)
Review 07/25:
Gold continued to consolidate within the expected range and posted a slight loss. The Nasdaq100 had a strong month, which was no surprise given the strong seasonality this year. Bitcoin made a leap upwards at the beginning of July and has now been consolidating in a very narrow band for over two weeks. Overall, the model has performed well.
The portfolio value rose almost twice as much as the Wikifolio certificate. This is mainly due to the fact that I can interpret the model rules a little less strictly in the portfolio. For example, I used a 2x leveraged BTC certificate instead of the BTC ETC, I was able to underweight 3xGLD slightly and I found a slightly cheaper entry point for 3xQQQ.
Outlook 08/25:
3xGLD, 3xQQQ and BTC continue to have the strongest momenta in the asset pool. There are therefore no changes here, at least in the wikifolio.
Seasonally, the allocation for August suggests a slight increase. Nasdaq100 rises by +0.7% on average in 55% of months, gold by +1.4% in 58% of months and BTC by +12.4% on average in 38% of months.
By the way: August is strong for US bonds TLT (65%, +1.4%). It was correspondingly difficult for EURUSD (40%, -0.4%) and subsequently for EM (45%, -1.4%) and EU (40%, -0.7%). For $TLT5 it could be interesting in two respects!
Report from the 3xGTAA workshop:
The commodity portion is currently still covered by the Wisdomtree 2xWTI ETC. Due to its volatility and news dependency, oil is only suitable for a momentum model to a limited extent. A leveraged broad commodity ETC would be better. However, I can't find anything along these lines. There are KO certificates on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, e.g. VM3WD8, but firstly they are relatively expensive (7% TER) and secondly they cannot be traded in the Wikifolio. Does anyone have a better idea?
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