2Mês·

3xGTAA - Month in review July 2025

New month, new luck! How did the model perform in July?

Deposit value 27.06.25: €76,800

Asset performance 07/25

3xGLD: -2.2%

3xQQQ: +11.2%

BTC: +14.0%

Monthly performance (Wikifolio certificate): +7,4%

YTD performance 2025 (Wikifolio certificate): -3,1%

Portfolio value 27.06.25: 87,100€ (+13.4%)

Review 07/25:

Gold continued to consolidate within the expected range and posted a slight loss. The Nasdaq100 had a strong month, which was no surprise given the strong seasonality this year. Bitcoin made a leap upwards at the beginning of July and has now been consolidating in a very narrow band for over two weeks. Overall, the model has performed well.

The portfolio value rose almost twice as much as the Wikifolio certificate. This is mainly due to the fact that I can interpret the model rules a little less strictly in the portfolio. For example, I used a 2x leveraged BTC certificate instead of the BTC ETC, I was able to underweight 3xGLD slightly and I found a slightly cheaper entry point for 3xQQQ.

Outlook 08/25:

3xGLD, 3xQQQ and BTC continue to have the strongest momenta in the asset pool. There are therefore no changes here, at least in the wikifolio.

Seasonally, the allocation for August suggests a slight increase. Nasdaq100 rises by +0.7% on average in 55% of months, gold by +1.4% in 58% of months and BTC by +12.4% on average in 38% of months.

By the way: August is strong for US bonds TLT (65%, +1.4%). It was correspondingly difficult for EURUSD (40%, -0.4%) and subsequently for EM (45%, -1.4%) and EU (40%, -0.7%). For $TLT5 it could be interesting in two respects!

Report from the 3xGTAA workshop:

The commodity portion is currently still covered by the Wisdomtree 2xWTI ETC. Due to its volatility and news dependency, oil is only suitable for a momentum model to a limited extent. A leveraged broad commodity ETC would be better. However, I can't find anything along these lines. There are KO certificates on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, e.g. VM3WD8, but firstly they are relatively expensive (7% TER) and secondly they cannot be traded in the Wikifolio. Does anyone have a better idea?

Your Epi

http://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa

www.wikifolio.com3xGTAA

20 Comentários

Daniel@Bidax

2Mês

And now I also understand the Wikifolio principle. Today was another pretty instructive day.

•

Felix E.@FreshFelix

2Mês

Hey Epi,
thanks for your great insights into your GTAA portfolio. I've also been in it since about the beginning of the year and have 2x WTI as an assett class, because unfortunately I couldn't find a broader, leveraged commodity ETC back then. However, 2x WTI seems to be less suitable, as you said. Maybe we will be lucky and a bank will fill this niche in the future.

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@FreshFelix Then we'll keep an eye on the market. If anyone finds anything, they can report back. In my private 3xGTAA, I will probably stick with the certificate until then, even if it is expensive. And in the wikifolio, a normal CMCI will have to serve until then. It may not be vola-optimal, but it's better than this 2xWTI bitch. 😬

•

Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

2Mês

Joined today with 20 shares.

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@Gehebeltes-EFH Wow! How come? Is it your affinity for levers?
But 3xGTAA is not an EFH. 😅

•

Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

2Mês

@Epi Why? Ultimately because of you. You've been writing meaningful articles here for several years and have put a lot of thought into your strategies. I'm somewhat tied to you with the Wikifolio, so trust is important. I therefore assume that you will stay with me (and us) for a while. I've also read a bit about GTAA, spent some time with Zahlgraf's excellent adventures and most recently had this reviewed by AI: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5230603. Do you know their approach?

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@Gehebeltes-EFH That's very nice. Thank you for your trust. 🤗
I'm continuing to tweak the model, although now it's more a matter of consistent implementation.

Thanks also for the link to the paper. I didn't know it yet, but it seems to address exactly the questions I'm currently working on. I will definitely take a look at it! And who knows, maybe one or two ideas will find their way into 3xGTAA?👍

•

Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf

2Mês

The wikifolio is now up 1% since March. A difficult time for the wikifolio. I won't be expanding it for the time being. With 2.8k next to my actual core, it may continue its niche existence. If it actually ends up making 20-30% per year long term, I'll be happy about a big bonus. Otherwise it's just there 😁

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@SchlaubiSchlumpf Well? Are you losing confidence after just a few weeks of market performance? That was quick. 😏
I'm pretty sure you'll add after a few weeks of outperformance and will be annoyed that you didn't add sooner. 😬

•

Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf

2Mês

@Epi hihi. I toyed with the idea at the beginning. But actually decided quite quickly that I would stick to my core strategy with a fixed savings rate and that GTAA would at most be financed from "leftover money". That's not there at the moment. A move and a loan to a good friend, which I don't expect to repay any time soon (for my peace of mind), have drained the cash reserves. I'm keeping my savings rate. But everything I can spare will go into the cash reserves. After that, I'll reassess what I'm doing 😁

•

TotallyLost@TotallyLost

2Mês

Is this perhaps something for your commodities position?
$00XK
https://www.onvista.de/derivate/ETCs/47621400-A1NZLA-JE00B78NNS84

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@TotallyLost Thank you! I'm looking for something with leverage.

••

TotallyLost@TotallyLost

2Mês

@Epi Unfortunately I didn't find anything either... but it wasn't pointless anyway.
I found an ETF that exploits the rolling costs of commodities_futures.
$UEQC sounds exciting and above all uncorrelated to the stock market.

However, I'm not an expert on commodities futures, how would you rate the product?

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@TotallyLost The carry ETF seems to be a relatively complex construct. I find the lack of correlation interesting, but not the complexity. I try to keep my assets simple, my strategy combination is complex enough. 😁

•

Stefan21@stefan_21

2Mês

🥳

•

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@stefan_21 You kept your word! 👍
One day I might even be able to do something with these coins. Thank you very much! ❤️

•

CrashBurner@Psychedelic_Sunflower

2Mês

Thanks for the update. This month has been surprisingly uplifting, even though YTD is still negative. But I'm sticking with it.
Regarding the question about the Commodity ETC: How about IE00BKFB6L02 ? The leverage is "only" 2.5 and it does not contain any precious metals, but due to regulatory restrictions you probably can't get any closer to the product you want. It is also not daily leveraged, but maybe it will help.

••

Simon_n@Simon_n

2Mês

Thanks for the update. I've been doing a lot of research on 2xSPYTIPS, but couldn't find an article on the exact strategy of 3xGTAA. Is there a post on that too?

••

Epi@Epi

2Mês

@Simon_n It's been a while since the first post about 3xGTAA. Just have a look at my posts from 2023.

•

DerDanner@Therapeut

2Mês

Portfolio Master Epi,
I need your advice... as I am going into self-employment soon I would like to take my private pension into my own hands, I still have about 40 years until I retire.
How would you simply structure the pension portfolio?

I have a portfolio with individual shares and S&P500, but I think the risk is too high to continue with it for 40 years.

••