While silver $965310 (+0,29%) has been on a fantastic run this past year, the miners underperformed relative to the silver price.

$SILG (+2,08%) is up 165% this past year, while silver is up 163%. Even though this is a slight outperformance, the expected performance should be way higher.

If we compare that to the gold price (68%) and the gold miners (159%) we see the miners grew exponentially more than the comodity price.

Why silver miners should outperform the silver price:

• Production costs stayed flat at $18 an ounce.
• With silver at $84 that is a hefty profit margin!
• Profit margins improved from 20% to over 80% since 2024
• Primary silver mines have the advantage over secondary mines (lead,zinc,copper,gold) as they can scale up according to the new silver price
• Q4 results are yet to be released, while Q4 saw the great silver price surge

Why silver miners lagged so far:

• Traders expect the silver price surge to be temporary
• This would drop profit margins as quick as they rose

I expect the silver miners to rise sharply after Q4 results are released. I also expect the silver price to rise even more, improving the profit margins even further. That's why I'm expanding my position in $SILG (+2,08%)

The most common pushback against the bullish silver thesis is: “Don’t worry, solar will just switch from silver to copper.” How plausible is that?

Alexander Campbell (ex Head of Commodities at Bridgewater) frames it this way:

🔻Demand destruction threshold

• He puts the “break-even / where demand destruction even begins” around $134/oz (not a price target, but the level where the squeeze starts to bite).

⏳ The bottleneck is time (not money)

• Rough math: ~300 factories worldwide, ~1.5 years to convert each to copper plating, and ~60 factories/year parallel capacity --> ~4 years minimum to reach 50% copper adoption.

💸 Even if economics scream “do it”…

• Around $125/oz, payback drops below 1 year, but “deciding tomorrow” still doesn’t compress the industrial timeline (physics/operations > incentives)

🛠️ Not plug-and-play

• Switching to copper isn’t a simple input swap; it requires process/design changes, manufacturing workflow changes, and retraining/qualification.

🔁 The mix effect (PERC → TOPCon → HJT)

• While copper is discussed, the tech mix shift can increase silver intensity on average (he cites ~13.5 mg/W in 2025 vs ~15.2 mg/W in 2030).

✅ Bottom line

Copper may be the long-term “end state”, but it’s unlikely to be an immediate kill switch. Silver can move faster than the PV supply chain can retool.

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/10-silver-days-of-christmas

$SSLN (+0,28%)
$SILG (+2,08%)
$PHAG (+0,66%)
$XAD6 (+0,78%)
$SIVR (+0,23%)
$SLV (+0,2%)
$SIL (+0,3%)
$SILJ
$PAAS (+0,44%)
$AG (+1,6%)
$EDR (+1,28%)
$SVM (-0,15%)
$MAG
$HL (+0,19%)
$SAMG
$AYA (+0,03%)

Rising industrial demand, rigid supply and a market in continuous deficit since 2020.

⚡ The photovoltaic boom isn’t slowing down: total silver demand is expected to reach between 48,000 and 54,000 tonnes per year, with the solar sector alone accounting for up to 40% of global consumption.

⚒️ On the supply side, 72% of silver is produced as a byproduct, and any new primary mine takes nearly a decade to come online. Supply elasticity is almost zero.

Even after factoring in more recycling and lower silver intensity per solar cell, the model shows that by 2030, supply would cover at best 70% of demand — leaving a gap that someone will have to fill… or that prices will eventually correct for.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344925004392

$SSLN (+0,28%)
$SILG (+2,08%)
$PHAG (+0,66%)
$XAD6 (+0,78%)
$SIVR (+0,23%)
$SLV (+0,2%)
$SIL (+0,3%)
$SILJ
$PAAS (+0,44%)
$AG (+1,6%)
$EDR (+1,28%)
$SVM (-0,15%)
$MAG
$HL (+0,19%)
$SAMG
$AYA (+0,03%)