I would like to add a tobacco stock to my dividend portfolio. Which one would you choose and on what basis?

• $MO (-0,04%) Altria
• $BATS (+0,15%) British American Tobacco
• $PM (+0,39%) Philip Morris

I look forward to your feedback!

A quick overview of the stocks I am trying to get into the portfolio for the coming week. The limit orders can be adjusted to the market. However, I will start with this on Monday morning

Fastenal - limit EUR 69.50 $FAST (+0,6%)

Coca Cola limit 58.50 EUR $KO (+0,31%)

Watsco limit 451,50 EUR $WSO (+0,54%)

Waste Management Limit 195.00 EUR $WM (+0,99%)

UnitedHealth Limit 490 EUR $UNH (+0,94%)

Philip Morris limit EUR 117 $PM (+0,39%)

Lockheed Martin Limit 460.00 EUR $LMT (+1,14%)

Iron Mountain Limit 100 EUR $IRM (+0,04%)

Have a nice rest of Sunday .

Which tobacco share up to 2030 best?

$PM (+0,39%)

$MO (-0,04%)

$BATS (+0,15%)

Here is some historical data on $BATS (+0,15%)
$PM (+0,39%)
$MO (-0,04%) and what I expect for 2024.

As BAT only has an HY report, the egg estimate for 2024 is somewhat inaccurate.

I find it interesting that BAT's alternative products have been ignored for years, even though they have been solidly positioned since 2018.

Mind you, this is about volume and not sales in general.

The losses at Altria and BAT in cigarettes are due to the generally declining US market. In the case of Philip Morris, I am even assuming stable volumes with a good probability of growth.

BAT at HP will stagnate if not shrink unless something fundamental changes in HY2. With HILO, if the attack on the premium segment succeeds, the volume should increase again. Phillip Morris is very likely to make substantial gains again.

At BAT, I expect some stagnation in the vapor segment; the big problem here is also the US market, where the unregulated segment continues to eat into market share. Altria can scale NJOY better due to its low market share and should end the year satisfactorily.

In the modern oral segment, Philip Morris and BAT should be particularly convincing. How much Altria ultimately grows depends on how much it can maintain the market share it has gained now that ZYN no longer has supply problems.

Due to the strong volume growth,

Philip Morris to increase RRP's revenue share from 13% in 2018 to >35% in 2024,

BAT from 3.7% to >13%,

Altria (with Copenhagen) 8.9% to 11% (without Copenhagen) <4%.

The main catalysts for volume growth in the future are the IQOS USA launch, VEEV launch in Europe, global ZYN launch, HILO launch, Velo product innovations, action against unregulated vapes, Ploom and SWIC USA launch.

These catalysts should all be in full swing by the end of 2025 and show success in 2026.

How much does ZYN dominate the nicotine pouch market in the USA? $PM (+0,39%)

Now we have an answer in the form of another moronic lawsuit. Swedish Match North America is now accused of having created a monopoly in the nicotine pouch market. According to the court, SMNA has an 80% market share.

Still had a small part in $PM (+0,39%) left (+33.25% profit💸) and took the opportunity to open my position at $HIMS (+0,44%) I wanted to open my position months ago but never had the capital... the savings plan will start on Monday. 🚀

Let's see what happens?

It was an honor for me (over 40% plus). Slowly but surely I am reducing tobacco from my portfolio as an individual position. I still have $MO (-0,04%)
$BATS (+0,15%) and $IMB (-0,03%)

More information here.

The lawsuit will affect the global operating business of $PM (+0,39%) and $BATS (+0,15%) hardly or not at all.

• The settlement must be paid off by the Canadian Cigarette Subsidiaries.
• The SFB in Canada will not be affected.
• The cigarette business outside Canada will also not be affected.

The nice thing about this is that the Canadian cigarette business is already practically "worthless". So it has no impact on long term growth anyway.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-ratings-neutral-impact-for-pmi-bat-from-canadian-lawsuit-proposed-settlement-24-10-2024

The United Kingdom bans disposable vapes.

Deadline for suppliers is June 1, 2025.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/articles/c079ej42y07o#:~:text=The%20sale%20and%20use%20of,children's%20health%20and%20the%20environment.

France has also recently introduced a ban on disposable vapes, which will come into force on January 1, 2025.

$PM (+0,39%)
$BATS (+0,15%)

Japan Tobacco $2914 (+0,68%)
re-enters the South Korean HTU market.

The Group withdrew from South Korea in 2021. The market is now controlled by $PM (+0,39%) and KT&G $033780 which have around 90% of the market share, with the remainder falling to $BATS (+0,15%) . Now JT wants to re-enter the market with ploom x (which will most likely also be the platform for $MO (-0,04%) in the USA) to re-enter the market.

This should be quite interesting as it will test brand loyalty. It is not yet clear whether loyalty to HTU products is as high as for cigarettes.