Postos
56The dividend of $ADM (+2,68%) has been received.
While everyone is just talking about tech and AI$ADM (+2,68%) is quietly doing what the world really needs: Corn and agricultural products - nothing works without this agricultural giant! It has also been paying a stable dividend for decades 💵 and the business is so defensive that even recessions bounce off it.
ADM = boring? Perhaps.
📈 Performance:
S&P500: +1.51%
MSCI World: +1.76%
DAX: +2.59%
Dividend portfolio: +4.24%
My high and low performers in July were (top/flop 3):
🟢 $UNH (+1,72%) UnitedHealth +16.78%
🟢 $ADM (+2,68%) Archer Daniels Midland +12.33%
🟢 $8058 (-0,05%) Mitsubishi Corp. +12.05%
🔴 $LLY (+2,47%) Eli Lilly -5.99%
🔴 $MSFT (+0,33%) Microsoft -7.51%
🔴 $CTAS (+0,07%) Cintas -9.20%
Dividends:
August 2025: €129.54
August 2024: € 101.41
Change: +27.74% 🥒
Sales:
🟥 $7974 (-0,49%) Nintendo (6 pcs.) +100%
Purchases:
🟩 $PG (+0,42%) Procter & Gamble (4 pcs.)
Savings plans:
What else has happened?
The tax assessment notice has arrived and the back payment has increased to 4100€. Funnily enough (typical for Germany), the advance payment is calculated on the basis of this year. As everything seems to run automatically, nobody checks whether this makes sense. In any case, the tax office assumes that I will have to pay the same amount again next year (or more) and tells me that I should pay €6500 in advance. Of course, I'm now asking for a recalculation. But that's a lot of work again, which could have been avoided if someone had just looked over it. Then they would have seen that this was a one-off. Well, what else do I expect these days.
The appointment at the garage has been arranged for the beginning of September. Let's see what else is in store for me.
I'm going on vacation at the end of September. That will be necessary again. My last vacation was around Christmas last year.
🥅 Goals for 2025:
Deposit of €10,000 and thus a deposit volume in the share portfolio of ~€73,000
Target achievement at the end of August 2025: 60.58%
How was your August?
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Under 40€ another tranche at $ADM (+2,68%) add another tranche. Are somehow already systemically relevant
The second month of 2025 is already over. Time is flying by again at breakneck speed and one event or statement follows the next this year. It's crazy what's going on at the moment and at the same time the market is somehow saying "I don't care".
Up down, up down, the markets are becoming more volatile and yet, or precisely because of this, my February was almost at +/-0.
But one thing at a time.
In February I achieved a plus of 0.8%. With my portfolio size, this corresponds to a value of almost €900. Not particularly good compared to the Dax (+3.77%), but still very respectable compared to the HSBC MSCI World (-2.49%).
Unfortunately, things do not look any better over the year (YTD).
The Dax is running away with 13.3%, while the MSCI World is bobbing along at 1.6%. Here, too, I was at least able to beat the World, but I still lag miles behind the DAX.
Overall, however, I am still very satisfied. As I don't have a lot of tech in my portfolio and my stocks are (mostly) rather stable, there is often no outperformance of the stocks and if there is, it is only marginal.
My high and low performers in February were (top 3):
$HSY (+2,68%) Hershey +15.63%
$T (+0,33%) AT&T +14.07%
$NESN (-0,39%) Nestle +13.10%
$ADM (+2,68%) Archer Daniels -8.57%
$UNH (+1,72%) United Health -13.16%
$TSLA (-3,54%) Tesla -27.59%
Dividends:
In February, I received a net €123.62 from a total of 10 distributions.
Compared to February 2024 (€99.26), this was an increase of 24.54%
Investments:
Due to the construction work on the house last year, the focus continues to be on building up the nest egg and saving up a "leisure account" again, as everything was really used up completely last year and only the custody account remained.
The savings plans will of course continue unabated, but individual investments are probably not possible for the time being.
Purchases and sales:
I have parted with Mercedes ( $MBG (+0,62%) ) and Medical Properties ( $MPW (+0,58%) ).
I then added to Lockheed Martin ( $LMT (+1,15%) ), Hershey ( $HSY (+2,68%) ) and Petroleo Brasileiro ( $PETR4 (+0,83%) ).
My savings plans remain unchanged, but it is quite possible that I will stop them for the time being in order to build up investment cash again.
Savings plans (350€ in total):
Goals 2025:
My goal is to have €130,000 in my portfolio at the end of the year. The goal is to be achieved by reinvesting the dividend, making payments and, of course, increasing the share price. The share price increase is of course impossible to predict in any way, so the motto is: if the share price falls or does not rise enough, more cash is needed.
This comes from selling useless stuff on eBay, additional income from e.g. "neighborhood help" etc. The worse the share price, the more additional cash has to be raised.
Target achievement at the end of February 2025: 37.41%
So I'm on the right track (so far). I'm curious to see what else will happen in 2025 and hope that the crash, which seems to be getting closer and closer, will take a little longer (so that I can continue to accumulate cash).
How was your February? Are you happy so far? I think that, due to the volatility, the portfolios in February are far more spread out than they were in January or even at the end of last year.
I decided to close my position in the Chinese tech company $BABA (-0,93%) with a 2x return to enter in a new sector and diversify my portfolio.
I chose to invest in Archer Daniels Midland Company ($ADM (+2,68%) ), one of the largest companies in the global agricultural sector, specializing in the processing of agricultural commodities and the production of ingredients for food, beverages, and animal feed.
ADMs shares exhibit the typical cyclical behavior of the agricultural sector, heavily influenced by fluctuations in commodity prices and global demand for food and biofuels. After a period of exuberance, during which stock prices reached high peaks due to increased demand and certain conjunctural factors, the price adjusted to a more justified level, reflecting the actual market conditions.
This decline represents a healthy correction and positions ADM as an attractive investment opportunity, given its solid growth history and its ability to innovate and adapt to global trends. Therefore, considering the long-term appreciation potential and the risk/reward profile, investing in ADM can prove to be a strategic decision.
With this investment, the #portfolio becomes more diverse and has a more defensive and less volatile exposure.
💼 Performance Overview:
ADM reported a 6.43% YoY decline in revenue to $21.50B, reflecting softer market conditions and biofuel policy uncertainty. Net income remained stable at $567M (+0.35% YoY), while adjusted EPS fell 16% to $1.14 due to lower segment profitability. The company maintained a 6.23% operating margin, despite higher costs and lower commodity prices.
📊 Key Financial Metrics (YoY Growth):
▫️ Revenue: $21.50B vs. $22.98B (-6.43%)
▫️ Net Income: $567M vs. $565M (+0.35%)
▫️ Adj. EPS: $1.14 vs. $1.36 (-16%)
▫️ Gross Margin: 6.32% vs. 7.57% (-1.25 pp)
▫️ Operating Margin: 6.23% vs. 6.99% (-0.76 pp)
📍 Segment Breakdown:
▫️ Ag Services & Oilseeds: $644M (-32%) — Lower crush margins due to higher manufacturing costs and increased industry supply.
▫️ Carbohydrate Solutions: $319M (+3%) — Higher ethanol export volumes, offset by lower co-product values in EMEA.
▫️ Nutrition: $88M (vs. -$10M) — Strong recovery in Human Nutrition, supported by higher volumes and improved mix.
💰 Balance Sheet Highlights:
▫️ Cash & Equivalents: $611M vs. $1.37B (-55%)
▫️ Total Assets: $35.91B vs. $36.08B (-0.46%)
▫️ Debt: $10.16B vs. $8.37B (+21.4%)
▫️ Operating Cash Flow: $2.78B vs. $4.46B (-37.7%)
📈 Future Outlook:
▫️ 2025 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $4.00 - $4.75
▫️ Strategic Priorities: Cost savings of $500M-$750M, focused on manufacturing efficiency, supply chain optimization, and workforce reduction (~600-700 roles).
▫️ Dividend Increase: Raised by 2% to $0.51/share (93rd consecutive year of dividend payments).
🔎 Key Takeaway: ADM is prioritizing cost efficiency and cash flow management amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, while maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy.
In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.
Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
__________
In this post:
__________
The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].
The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.
The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.
I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.
After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.
A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:
💰 Influence on inflation
On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:
The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.
Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.
🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned
As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:
According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]
But this is just the beginning:
From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:
🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation
Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.
Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:
"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"
The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:
"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"
🔄 Canada's reaction:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".
The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:
However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.
Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:
But Trump remains firm:
"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."
🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy
(a) Rising prices in the USA
(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?
(c) Effects on the stock market
🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?
Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs
US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies
Energy companies with US production
Chip manufacturers with US production
😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs
Chip manufacturers with global supply chains
Car manufacturers with global suppliers
Companies with strong export business
US retailers with a high import share
🧠 Possible investment strategies
Favor defensive sectors:
Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":
Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?
With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.
❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?
Thanks for reading! 🤝
__________
Sources:
[4]
[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html
Preface:
In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.
This includes
1) my strategic orientation
2)Return on the portfolio.
The main topics are:
Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.
The main changes to my portfolio that have led
to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.
timeline:
My timeline
Beginning of 2024
At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite
strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.
MSCI World, Emerging Markets.
The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-1,92%) , $O (+0,88%) ,$TSM (+1,52%)
$ADM (+2,68%)
$UMI (-2,31%)
$D05 (-0,2%)
$BMW (-0,99%)
$UKW (+0%)
$8031 (+0,17%)
$MUV2 (-0,31%)
February
Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.
The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining
90%.
April-June:
Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches
at prices between 50k and 63k.
After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic
I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.
exchange.
June:
Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to
decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.
July-August 2024:
Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.
August - September 24:
Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a
a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%
of my portfolio.
The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular
investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size
to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to
led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in
larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.
End of December 2024:
Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.
I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.
I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year
and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the
following section.
In addition, I have decided to include a small
include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never
part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only
about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (+0,88%) ).
Overall breakdown of my portfolio:
As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy
part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will
change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.
The rest is made up as follows:
ETFs:
$XDEM (-0,13%) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)
$XDEB (+0,18%) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)
$XDEV (+0,95%) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)
$ZPRV (+0,4%) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)
$ZPRX (+1,02%) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)
$PEH (-0,05%) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)
$5MVL (+0,13%) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)
$SPYX (-0,4%) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)
Gold
$EWG2 (+0,79%) 10% Gold ETC
Getquin Rewind and own data:
At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:
However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.
My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.
My own thoughts and outlook:
I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.
This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I
stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.
I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.
If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are
with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.
I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.
Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?
I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.
Best regards,
Your Smurf
PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).
PPS: I hope someone is interested.
Principais criadores desta semana
