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291Customs war special: winners, losers, outlook
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$AMZN (-4,18%)
$SBUX (-1,74%)
$GOOG (-1,86%)
$GOOGL (-1,84%)
$NET (-2,26%)
$PLTR (-4,19%)
$VNA (+2,08%)
$META (-3,51%)
2025 - A year to forget if you look at the first quarter. While things were still looking positive until around mid-February, things have been going steadily downhill since the middle or end of February.
March 2025 was the worst single month in my portfolio since 2013, with price losses of almost 10%. The negative market trend in the US and a weak US dollar naturally hurt my portfolio particularly badly.
Monthly view:
In total, March was -9,9%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 30.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was -7.9% and the S&P500 -5.8% (in dollars, for euro investors it was also more like -10%).
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers shows a clear picture in March:
Winners? You will look for them almost in vain this month.
In 1st and 2nd place are Deutsche Bank
$DBK (-10,98%) and Allianz $ALV (-6,23%) two German financial stocks with gains of around € +180 each. Northrop Grumman $NOC (-0,38%) at +120€ is only one of 2 American stocks with a positive price performance in March.
A completely different picture on the losers' side:
1st place goes to NVIDIA $NVDA (-4,24%) with price losses of over €4,200. It is followed by Meta $META (-3,51%) and Palo Alto Networks
$PANW (-2,26%) with price losses of ~€2,000 each. 4th place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (-1,86%) with €1,600 in share price losses. The flop 5 is then completed by a non-tech stock, namely Starbucks
$SBUX (-1,74%) with losses of ~€1,400.
The performance-neutral movements were €500 in March - these are still lower at the moment due to the house construction issue.
current year:
In the YTD my portfolio is now also clearly in the red with -8,4%. The MSCI World is still doing better at -5.4%.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~260.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€25,000 in the current year 2025. -28.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~900€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buying & selling:
Change of strategy?
At the moment, Donald Trump and his policies are causing a lot of scrutiny, especially with regard to the (high) US share in the portfolio.
I can understand these thoughts very well. However, I have decided not to change my strategy and to maintain my high US & tech allocation in my portfolio.
There are certainly better short-term investment opportunities (European defense stocks as an example). Through my savings plans, however, I have deliberately opted for a long-term buying strategy that I will not throw overboard every few months. In the long term, for example, 2022 was an extremely good year to buy tech stocks.
As I don't have a portfolio target for this year anyway, I'm happy to go even lower - hopefully I'll be happy about the entry prices in 2-3 years' time.
YouTube:
Unfortunately, I only uploaded 2 videos to YouTube in March. Unfortunately, work in March was extremely stressful and time-consuming, so there was little time left for this.
I have also uploaded my March portfolio update as a video there if anyone would like to see some more information on the portfolio performance: https://youtu.be/fxbvatj6uvM?si=xP_gvoEmtuqSsfz8
I'm particularly happy to receive criticism or feedback here! 😊
Goal 2025
As already mentioned in the January & February review, a fixed deposit target for this year makes little sense due to the house construction. A fixed savings rate is also difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).
A dividend target is also very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.
That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two YouTube successes.
How are things looking for you? Are you sticking to your portfolio target for 2025 or do you also see difficulties in achieving it after the first quarter?
Inspired by @MozartTrading you can now read my assessment of the 7 most important stocks in the US economy.
Let's start with what is probably the most boring of the 7 stocks. Apple hasn't done much wrong for years, but it hasn't done much right either. Overall, the operating business is moving sideways and the valuation is not cheap. Overall, however, you don't get a quality company too cheap here. There are certainly worse stocks, but there are also plenty of better ones.
HOLD.
META is also relatively boring, but at least significantly cheaper. Overall, I see more sense in buying here, but META is also relatively lacking in innovation and not very well diversified. META still refuses to break down how much revenue is made with which app, but as I see it, they probably make the absolute majority of their total revenue through Instagram and advertising. META has certainly been trying to broaden its base for decades, but even several years after my last analysis, they have not been really successful. At least they have a good M&A team because they have had more success on average with the companies they have acquired than with those that come entirely from their own company. HOLD
Can actually be summarized in a few words, because this is by far the most volatile share of the big 7. A share that has a lot of potential, if you want to believe the CEO's promises. But only then. Fundamentally, Tesla is not really understandable at all, you either have to have confidence in Elon or leave it alone. HOLD (or SELL)
$GOOGL (-1,84%) / $GOOG (-1,86%)
Is probably the slightly more exciting alternative to META, cheaper and simply more broadly positioned. Alphabet also makes a lot of money through advertising, but they also have several other irons in the fire. They have Cloud. They have Android. They have YouTube. They're also trying to do something in the direction of quantum computing and Waymo. Somehow Alphabet is at least involved somewhere in all the important topics. That's pretty good. In comparison, however, it's noticeable that Alphabet has also been responsible for a lot of pipe failures over the last few years. Of course, Alphabet is by far the best value compared to the other stocks. But there is usually a reason why shares are cheap. And again, no one wants to give you Alphabet, but Alphabet also has to fear by far the most pressure from regulatory authorities, even ahead of Apple and Tesla. Overall, however, it has to be said that Alphabet is better diversified than META and cheaper than Apple, which is why this is the first BUY rating.
The shooting star par excellence. Nvidia is strongly positioned in the most important trend of our time and has very high market power due to its unique technology, which the competition is currently unable to keep up with. The only reason for this is that the business model is not particularly well diversified. At the moment, everything depends on the data centers and here I will let you in on an industry secret: they will not continue to grow at 30-40% p.a. forever. However, this knowledge is already reflected in the share price and has already been priced in to some extent. Compared to Alphabet, Nvidia is less diversified, but has fewer regulatory worries and better management. Therefore, there is also a very clear BUY.
Time for the first S-tier company in the mag7. Microsoft actually has the perfect business model and is represented in countless future trends. You have the cloud, you have gaming, you also have something like social media with LinkedIn, you sell your own hardware, you also have a search engine and earn money through advertising, but of course mainly through the subscription model. Microsoft is not the market leader in every area, but it is fundamentally successful in every area. And that's what makes Microsoft so special. There are markets in which Microsoft is absolutely dominant and those in which it is only number #2 or #3 it is at least enough to avoid being completely flattened and having to retreat. For example, they are not the biggest cloud, but at least they are the most profitable. By and large, this is what sets Microsoft apart from Google. Microsoft only really knows the word failure from the times of Steve Ballmer, who maneuvered the company onto very sharp cliffs a few times. The biggest fails in Microsoft's history, such as Windows Mobile, also date back to these times. I would love to try out an MS Surface to see how well Windows performs on mobile devices today, but in the past it was a real disaster.
But before I digress too much, I'll tell you that MSFT is definitely a STRONG BUY from me.
Drum roll here comes my favorite stock. Amazon started as a bookstore, is known to most as an online store but is actually so much more. As if it wasn't impressive enough that Amazon gets so much out of such an unattractive business model as e-commerce, they are also active in many other areas and are amazingly successful overall. When it comes to shopping, they often manage to be one of the cheapest providers and still earn a lot of money. They are also a postal service provider. And an airline. And a streaming service. And not forgetting the world's largest cloud provider. What makes Amazon so special is that they often build up business areas for their own needs and then sell them to other customers at the same time. This horizontal integration and the resulting synergy effects are amazing and offer further compounding potential, especially in the future. Together with Rivian, they build their own vehicles for their own delivery service and are then themselves their biggest customer. I don't think there's even enough space to tell you about all the business areas in which they are now active. For example, they are now also active in the advertising business. Amazon is a company that really excites me because they keep finding niches where the other big tech companies aren't really active and because they consistently push ahead with developing products that not only their customers but also they themselves can use. At the moment, earnings are still a size smaller than Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet, but they still have the potential to make the leap to the very top. Therefore, in addition to MSFT, a STRONG BUY.
I’m waiting for all the tariff movement to settle down before I reinvest in the new account, but these are the stocks I’m planning to put in the new account
I’m putting between $300 and $500 into each stock and I’m trying to get stocks from every sector
Would love to hear any feedback you have
1 Share of $MCD (+0,15%)
2 Shares of $AMZN (-4,18%)
1 Share of $MSFT (-1,35%)
2 Shares of $AAPL (-3,74%)
1 Share of $UNH (+0,03%)
3 Shares of $SPG (-1,32%)
4 Shares of $XOM (-2,46%)
11 Shares of $BAC (-4,14%)
1 Share of $LIN (-1,92%)
5 Shares of $SO (-0,73%)
5 Shares of $WMT (-1,33%)
2 Shares of $BA (-3,47%)
2 Shares of $GOOG (-1,86%)
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00:00:00 Trade Desk, AppLovin, Alphabet
00:28:00 Palantir
00:42:00 Nvidia & AMD
01:14:00 Government bonds & money market funds
01:27:00 Our subscribers
01:30:00 Tax hikes for shareholders and Bitcoiners
Spotify
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Apple Podcast
So I just realised that I've been investing for exactly 1 year and 1 week, so I thought this would be a good moment to reflect. I'm 36, the total portfolio size is 50k+ and the money isn't needed in short term. My portfolio summarised:
1. ETF core, 50% at minimum: $VDEV (-2,73%) and $VFEM (-2,68%) , recently added $EUE (-4,21%) as I see more potential in the EU than in the US in the short-medium term. I like how a combination of these 3 ETFs allows for more adaptability than simply putting everything in a world ETF. Plus, the TER is a bit lower.
2. Individual stocks, max 10 positions, only including companies that I understand and have faith in that they will perform well in the next couple of years. The goal is to at least match $IWDA (-2,28%) but preferably to make some additional gains. In summary:
Tech:
$NVDA (-4,24%) : committed after the post-Deepseek dip, will just wait out all the short-term turbulence
$AMZN (-4,18%) : doesn't need additional info.
$ASML (-1,02%) : ditto
$VRT (-4,73%) : see one of my previous posts on GQ. Bit too volatile for me now, but when the AI-hype picks up again, will perform well.
Health:
$NVO (-4,44%) : I have a lot of faith in the GLP1-narrative, stock is very undervalued
$LLY (-1,27%) : same at NVO, got pummeled hard recently but in longer term another good bet in the GLP1-race.
Divident:
$ALV (-6,23%) : popular German insurance company. Divident-wise, I have more faith in insurance companies than banks. Banks also face more headwinds due to fintech.
$ASRNL (-5,14%) : comparable to Allianz, solid, no-nonsense Dutch insurance company.
Bit more speculative:
$NU (-2,18%) : I think fintech has a lot of potential and NU was valued quite cheaply compared to US- or EU-based counterparts. Could benefit from US recession if USD evaluates.
What are your thoughts? What would you add or lose? I'm thinking of adding $GOOG (-1,86%) when the current downtrend subsides. Does make the portfolio more tech-heavy but all companies are internationally oriented (in case of US recession) and should outperform in the longer term.
Thanks in advance!
Nvidia announces new AI chips
CEO Jensen Huang from Nvidia $NVDA (-4,24%) has announced big news for the world of artificial intelligence. With the new AI chips "Blackwell Ultra" and "Vera Rubin", the company is taking a decisive step into the future. Huang defends the arms race for powerful processors and emphasizes that the computing power for AI agents and so-called reasoning is about 100 times greater than was thought a year ago. AI agents are programs that can perform tasks almost autonomously, while reasoning describes technologies that simulate logical thinking. Huang emphasizes that the need for these innovations is essential for the future of AI and could take the industry to a new level.
Google completes largest acquisition
In the USA, Alphabet $GOOG (-1,86%)the parent company of Google, has announced an impressive acquisition: the takeover of Wiz. This is considered to be the largest acquisition in Alphabet's history and could have far-reaching consequences for the development of generative AI. With the upcoming launch of Gemini 2.0 and competition from ChatGPT Sora, Alphabet is expected to further consolidate its leading role in the AI sector. The integration of Wiz into the existing structures could not only produce innovative solutions, but also significantly influence and reshape the future of generative AI.
Stada postpones billion-euro IPO
In Germany, the planned IPO of the Hessian pharmaceutical group Stada has apparently been postponed. Several news agencies are reporting that insider information indicates that the lead banks have advised owners Bain Capital and Cinven against a short-term listing. This decision came on Monday afternoon, after Stada had originally planned to announce its intention to list this week. The background to this is the current market volatility, which represents a degree of uncertainty for investors. This could have a significant impact on the company's plans in the near future.
Sources:
