4D·

"Be the Bottom you want to see"

My $BTC (+0,5%) Thesis: Swing Long.

At the beginning of October, I sold around 20-25% of my BTC spot position at around $124,000. The reason for this was my system, which among other things consists of an order flow algorithm that generated a bearish reversal signal on a high timeframe (HTF).

After we saw an open interest unwind (liquidation of leveraged positions) on October 10, I have now bought back the first €20,000 in BTC. I have placed a further €50,000 via scaled limit orders up to $96,000. This is where the 365d rVWAP is located, which serves as multi-year support.

In this bull market, you rarely get both:

1) Price within 10% of the 350d MA

2) Drawdown of more than -10 % within the last 10d

→ Currently we see both.

Fear and Greed Index: (even though I am not a fan of it, it reflects, among other things, option skew, i.e. the current sentiment):

Options Skew (buying panic puts): at a level we last saw on April Low or September 2024 (both marked the bottom).

Bullish Key Points:

post deleveraging event
Extreme Fear on F&G
BTC skew to multi-year highs
Commodities look topped
Q4 seasonality
FED about to pause QT
Rate cuts in stocks ATH - $NVDA (+1,16%)
$TSLA (+1,82%)
$MSFT (-0,03%)
$META (+0,13%)
$AMZN (+1,02%)
$AAPL (+0,3%)
$GOOG (+1,14%)

17.10

Bitcoin

Comprado x0,109 em € 91.832,70

€ 9.999,66

23 Comentários

jkb92@jkb92

Wow, that's the first well-founded, constructive and understandable contribution from you that I've seen here. Thank you!

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@jkb92 I shitpost because I don't think much of most of the posts 🤷🏻‍♂️ not the English way but my way

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Darth.Sidious@Sithlord

@Ph1l1pp the argumentation is just completely retarded. Instead of providing added value, such as this post, you float along on your cloud and take pleasure in the ignorance of other users? Apparently you're Wall Street when it comes to finances, but when it comes to interpersonal relationships, you're just a Mannheim Benz barrack

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jkb92@jkb92

@Sithlord Everyone here already knows that. But it doesn't help to tell him that. He's resistant to advice. So it's all the more pleasing when something productive comes along in between:)

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@Sithlord I am less "amused" by the ignorance of others, but rather by those users who overestimate their supposed edge on the market, are happy about lucky hits and then derive their "knowledge" from this ;)

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jkb92@jkb92

@Ph1l1pp only you have the Edge on the market :)

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@jkb92 I neither said nor do I think that, but 99.9% have no edge, at least with fundamental analysis

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Topper H.@TopperHarley

Then you obviously haven't read a post from @Epi yet?

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Epi@Epi

@TopperHarley It doesn't have to. My knowledge of fundamental analysis with regard to individual stocks is rather rudimentary. I'm more of a macro and strategy guy. 😏

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

19H

@TopperHarley I really like Epi's contributions, one of the few people who add value, but I don't think he has an actual advantage over the market with FA.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

I also bought more on Friday :)

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@stefan_21 glad to hear it :)

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Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

Your system signal is methodically quite thin. A lot of ex-post logic wrapped up in system language.

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@Savvy_investor_2000 As you may have noticed, the article has been broken down to the most easily understandable form so that it reaches as many people as possible and they also understand the content. Among other things, I also include my own macro indicators, but very few people can do anything with HY spreads and BAML spread data.

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yieldhunter@randomdude

Is this strategy worthwhile from a tax perspective? Paying income tax vs. tax exemption after 1 year?

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@randomdude Yes, because the BTC I bought over a year ago (between June and September) are now tax-free, so no taxes are due on them either

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Ricola@Roccola601

Funny.
Sounded completely different in the discussion the other day when it came to the end of the bull run.

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@Roccola601 Maybe because we were much higher at the time and the OI flush I anticipated followed? Funny indeed.

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Ricola@Roccola601

@Ph1l1pp you explicitly called the end of the bull run for Q3 (which I find funny, because you are now listing the bullish points which, in my view, could still lead to the cycle top) - but it wasn't about an OI flush at all.
Quite apart from the fact that it's dubious to simply "predict" the top anyway - but in any case I was really looking forward to your announced contribution on the subject! 😂

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@Roccola601 My base case scenario for the whole of 2025 has been that we will see a new ATH in Q4, which I continue to believe. However, I made a post a few months ago, which I assume you are referring to, that we will see the top (before Q4 rally) in late September-October.

Top =/ end of the bull run.

I also don't make predictions based on whim but based on my system, just as it marked the top for me and I was bearish until recently, I am now bullish.

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Ricola@Roccola601

Yes, I'm referring to the post - then this point didn't come across so clearly at the time.

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Habicht128@Habicht128

Great, which tool do you use to do this? I would also be grateful for a more detailed contribution

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

@Habicht128 the chart is from TradingView, enhanced by my own algorithm and indicators. As soon as I have time, I'll be happy to write a more detailed article :)

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