Digital assets remain in consolidation. $BTC (+2,25%) has been fluctuating between USD 67,000 and 70,000 for weeks, while major market participants continue to sell: an estimated USD 30 billion has flowed out of so-called whales since October 2025. At 64%, their share of exchange deposits is at its highest level since 2015 - a clear supply overhang.
Macroeconomic headwinds also remain: a more restrictive tone from the US Federal Reserve and dampened expectations of interest rate cuts are putting pressure on risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin and $ETH (+2,51%)-ETFs recorded outflows of USD 4.3 billion for five weeks in a row.
And yet: the first signs of a bottom are becoming visible. Bitcoin's relative strength index fell to 16 - historically an extreme value in oversold territory. Leverage ratios have fallen significantly, valuation ratios are normalizing and inflows of around USD 1 billion have returned for the first time this week.
The environment remains fragile in the short term. But structurally, the conditions for the next phase of expansion could slowly emerge. (Text by James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)
