The hype is all about humanoid robots, but the constant winners are in the background.

I have divided the analysis into two perspectives. 1. the complete value chain of humanoid robots, which shows all the players from the chip to the finished robot, and 2. the blade manufacturers in the background, who always earn money as enablers, regardless of which manufacturer wins the race.

ASML, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron dominate in manufacturing technology. Quality assurance comes from Keysight, Advantest and Teradyne. Chip design is supported by Synopsys, Cadence and ARM. Data streams are secured by Arista Networks, Cisco and Equinix. The computing basis is created in the cloud by Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet. Albemarle, Lynas and Umicore play a central role in raw materials and battery materials. These companies monetize their customers' investment waves, have high barriers to entry, service revenues and pricing power, but remain cyclical with risks from export rules, capex cuts and currency movements.

🌐 Value chain of humanoid robots Sector overview

1. research & chip design (IP / EDA)

$ARM (+2,7%)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures

$SNPS (+1,24%)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - Chip design software

$CDNS (-0,98%)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - EDA & Simulation

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (+1,56%)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography, key monopoly

$AMAT (+0,8%)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Process equipment

$8035 (-0,46%)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Wafer equipment

$KEYS (+2,9%)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Test & RF measurement technology

$6857 (+0,68%)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test systems

$TER (+4,94%)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + robotics (Universal Robots)

3. chip production (Foundries)

$TSM (+1,48%)
TSMC (TSM, TW) - Largest contract manufacturer

$005930
Samsung Electronics (005930.KQ, KR) - Memory + Foundry

$GFS (+4,66%)
GlobalFoundries (GFS, USA) - Specialized production

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (+0,78%)
Nvidia (NVDA, USA) - GPUs, AI accelerators

$INTC (+3,61%)
Intel (INTC, USA) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (+1,57%)
AMD (AMD, USA) - CPUs/GPUs

$MRVL (+1,97%)
Marvell Technology (MRVL, USA) - Network/data center chips

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (+2,84%)
Sony (6758.T, JP) - CMOS image sensors

$6861 (-0,55%)
Keyence (6861.T, JP) - Vision systems, sensors

$STM (+5,38%)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - MEMS sensors

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (+1,62%)
Infineon (IFX, DE) - Power semiconductors, SiC

$ON (+5,51%)
N Semiconductor (ON, USA) - SiC/Power Chips

$STM (+5,38%)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - Motor control & power

$TXN (+1,46%)
Texas Instruments (TXN, USA) - Motor control, power ICs

$ADI (+0,92%)
Analog Devices (ADI, USA) - Energy & BMS chips

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (+1,28%)
Qualcomm (QCOM, USA) - 5G/SoCs

$AVGO (+0,59%)
Broadcom (AVGO, USA) - Network & radio chips

$SWKS (+2,69%)
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, USA) - RF components

8. energy supply

$300750
CATL (300750.SZ, CN) - Batteries

$6752 (+2,13%)
Panasonic (6752.T, JP) - Batteries for automotive/robotics

$373220
LG Energy Solution (373220.KQ, KR) - Batteries

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (+2,06%)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS

$MSFT (-0,35%)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure

$GOOG (+2,17%)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud

$EQIX (+1,44%)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data center operator

$ANET (-0,04%)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - Network infrastructure

$CSCO (-0,36%)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Edge & Data Center Networks

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (+1,15%)
Palantir (PLTR, USA) - Data integration, decision software

$DDOG (+0,12%)
Datadog (DDOG, USA) - Cloud monitoring / observability

$SNOW (+0,21%)
Snowflake (SNOW, USA) - Cloud-native data platform

$ORCL (+0,5%)
Oracle (ORCL, USA) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (-0,17%)
SAP (SAP, DE) - ERP/cloud systems

$PATH (+1,5%)
UiPath (PATH, USA) - Automation software (RPA)

$AI (+2,89%)
C3.ai (AI, USA) - Enterprise AI platform

11. end applications / robots

$ABB
ABB (ABB, CH) - Industrial robots

$6954 (+0,65%)
Fanuc (6954.T, JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$TSLA (+5,25%)
Tesla (TSLA, USA) - Optimus" humanoid robot

$9618 (+1,18%)
JD.com (JD, CN) - E-commerce & automated logistics

🛠️ Shovel manufacturer for humanoid robots

🔹 Hardtech (physical "shovels")

These companies provide the material basis: manufacturing machines, raw materials, semiconductor base.

Semiconductor Equipment & Manufacturing

$ASML (+1,56%)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography (monopoly).

$AMAT (+0,8%)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Wafer equipment.

$8035 (-0,46%)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Process equipment.

Test systems (hardware-side)

$6857 (+0,68%)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test.

$TER (+4,94%)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + industrial robots.

Materials & raw materials

$ALB (+2,35%)
Albemarle (ALB, USA) - Lithium (batteries).

$LYC (-1,08%)
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX, AUS) - Rare earths for magnets.

$UMICY (+2,47%)
Umicore (UMI.BR, BE) - Cathode materials, recycling.

🔹 Soft/infra (digital "shovels")

These companies supply the infrastructure & toolswithout which development, training and operation would be impossible.

Design Software & IP

$SNPS (+1,24%)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - EDA software.

$CDNS (-0,98%)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - Chip design & simulation.

$ARM (+2,7%)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures (license model).

Test & Measurement (software/signal level)

$KEYS (+2,9%)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Electronics & RF test systems.

Network & data center backbone

$ANET (-0,04%)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - High-speed networks.

$CSCO (-0,36%)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Data center/edge networks.

$EQIX (+1,44%)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data centers (colocation).

Cloud infrastructure

$AMZN (+2,06%)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS (cloud, AI training).

$MSFT (-0,35%)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure.

$GOOG (+2,17%)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud.

Takeaway: Investing in the infrastructure stack allows you to participate in the robotics trend regardless of the subsequent product winner and reduces the individual product risk, but you have to live with cycles. In your opinion, which stage of the chain offers the best risk/return combination and fits into a disciplined portfolio?

Source: Own analysis based on publicly available company information and IR materials of the companies mentioned.

Image material: Techa Tungateja/iStockphoto

Today I reduced my semi-ETF by 20% to bring the weighting from 15% to 10%.

No single position has a total weighting (ETF+single stock) above 5%, which is also my threshold. I always want to stay below 5% exposure.

My forward P/E of the portfolio has also fallen to 23, which is below my target of <25, despite the high tech allocation.

This means that my tech sector weighting is now in line with my world ETF $QDEV (+0,32%)which contains around 40-49% tech. I'm happy with that. I'm just still tech-bullish.

I have also reduced the USA region to 63%, almost identical to my world ETF (61%), and thus within my target range of 60-69%.

My favorites in the semi area remain anyway $TSM (+1,48%) and $HY9H (+4,34%) which I bought cheaply and undervalued as individual positions.

$NVDA (+0,78%) is and remains king, but I do not believe that the annual return will remain above 10% in the next few years, for this the market cap would have to grow by 400 billion every year, which I think would be difficult. $AVGO (+0,59%) currently has a P/E 5x greater than forward P/E, which shows that analysts are extremely bullish on future earnings. I am also bullish, but not as strongly, so the stock has already run very hot.

My top 10 holdings with 32% total weighting are currently:

4.95% $TSM (+1,48%) Taiwan Semi

4.65% $NVDA (+0,78%) NVIDIA

4.55% $GOOG (+2,17%) Google

4.47% $AVGO (+0,59%) Broadcom

2.85% $MSFT (-0,35%) Microsoft

2.63% $META (+1,22%) Meta

2.37% $AAPL (+0,28%) Apple

2.04% $ASML (+1,56%) Asml

1.95% $HY9H (+4,34%) SK Hynix

1.91% $JPM (+0,64%) JPMorgan

$WULF (-0,76%)
$IREN (+8,61%)
$GOOGL (+2,32%)
$GOOG (+2,17%)

What happens if $Iren reports an HPC/co-location deal with 1.4 GW Sweetwater 1 🤔🚀

TeraWulf $WULF (-0,76%) just signed two 10-year, 200+ MW AI hosting contracts with Fluidstack at its Lake Mariner campus, worth approximately $3.7 billion in contracted revenue and up to $8.7 billion with extensions.

$GOOGL (+2,32%) covers Fluidstack's lease obligations of USD 1.8 billion, thereby eliminating a major financing risk and acquiring approximately 8% of the equity via warrants (approximately 41 million shares).

Phase 1 (40 MW) will go into operation in the first half of 2026, with full commissioning by the end of 2026.

The plant is specially designed for liquid-cooled AI workloads.

We all use Google. We all know YouTube. But are we really aware of the giant behind it? We're talking about Alphabet! 🤯

$GOOG (+2,17%) is much more than just a search engine. They are pioneers in the field of artificial intelligence 🧠, are revolutionizing healthcare with Verily 💊 and are driving autonomous driving 🚗 with Waymo.

Have you heard of Loon, who want to bring the internet 🎈 to remote areas with balloons? Or Sidewalk Labs, which is designing smart cities 🏙️?

Sometimes I ask myself: does the market even see the full potential of this tech giant? 🤔 Is it possible that Alphabet shares, despite their impressive performance, are still undervalued because the immense potential of the "Other Bets" is not yet fully priced in?

Imagine if one of these "bets" explodes and becomes the next Google or YouTube. What would that mean for the share price? 🚀

-Google Cloud is booming! Sales rose by 32% to 13.6 billion US dollars in the last quarter. The company is investing heavily to conquer the top spot in the cloud market. 📈

-YouTube continues to grow strongly. Advertising revenue increased by 13 % to 9.8 billion US dollars. The platform is a real cash cow. 💰

-Other "bets" like Waymo and Verily are the secret stars ✨. Yes, they still cost a lot of money, but they have the potential to become the next Google giants. If just one of these bets pans out, the share price could explode.

-Alphabet is investing heavily in AI infrastructure to be at the forefront of the future. The question is: does the market really already see this immense potential? Or is the share still undervalued?

What do you think? 🤷🏽‍♂️

#Alphabet #Google #Shares #Investing #Technology #Innovation #Finance #Company analysis

Hello everyone,

After more than a year, it's time to present my portfolio again, as a lot has changed.

I am clearly pursuing a buy-and-hold strategy with quality stocks. As a core I currently have the $GGRP (+0,7%)and the $IWDA (+0,49%) . The $GGRP (+0,7%) will soon leave my portfolio and half of it will be reallocated to the $IWDA and the $XDEM (-0,47%) will be reallocated. This is simply because I think it's a good idea to have an ETF in my more growth-oriented portfolio that doesn't just have dividend payers in its line-up.

I find the $XDEM (-0,47%) in particular, as it focuses exclusively on stocks that have performed well recently. The fact that the excess return naturally drives up volatility somewhat is perfectly okay, as my investment horizon is at least 20 years.

Otherwise, another 57% of my portfolio consists of individual shares. My plan has actually always been a 50/50 ratio, but this has changed somewhat due to the strong equity returns. However, the ETF positions will soon be filled with around 600 euros of my training income. This should then level out a little better, as long as shares don't continue to rise enormously.

If you take a closer look at the shares, I think the strong focus on the classic ETF drivers such as $NVDA (+0,78%) , $MSFT (-0,35%) , $GOOG (+2,17%) and $AMZN (+2,06%) stand out. Of course, the ETFs in the portfolio increase the proportion of these stocks, but that is absolutely intentional. I remain very optimistic about the AI runners and see further growth and sufficient stability in the coming years.

I always find the following particularly noteworthy $EUZ (+0,46%) . It is the only German company in my portfolio. I am very confident in the long term and am excited to see how they will develop. Unfortunately, my $MC (+1,54%) position should also be mentioned. Well, bad luck and I didn't have the courage to sell when the downward trend was clear. But at least I can now offset the taxes from the $GGRP (+0,7%)-sale by selling the LVMH position and then buying it again immediately. As soon as the luxury segment improves again, I am sure that LVMH will be back at the top of the industry.

The bottom part of my portfolio currently consists of $MCD (-0,65%) and $MDLZ (-0,17%) among others. Due to the strong returns of the other shares, these two positions have become somewhat unimportant in my portfolio. At around 2% each, they have simply become too small for me, which is why I will be merging them. However, not again in a stable share with a dividend, but rather in a growth driver. I am currently watching $ANET (-0,04%) and am pretty convinced. The restructuring will probably soon lead to a EUR 4,000 position in Arista and free up another EUR 2,000 for the ETFs.

That should be all. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask, otherwise I'm very happy to receive your feedback :)

(A little info: The sum of the deposit comes from my grandfather's inheritance. The ETF shares I bought early on were bought by my father, as I was of course too young. Then I got involved with shares and was allowed to have more and more of a say. I currently make my own decisions about the portfolio)

I recently asked myself again what has actually happened to the court cases against $GOOGL (+2,32%) has become. Last year there was another big sell-off, but as is always the case, people first react to the news and then say they're going to appeal. $GOOG (+2,17%) that they are going to appeal and then somehow everyone forgets that anything ever happened.

But does it really work like that? You have to recognize that it's not enough to simply appeal to prevent a break-up, but it might be helpful to win something in court. And it doesn't look like that at the moment.

But what is it actually about? I'll leave out all the bullshit lawsuits from the EU about GDPR, DMA and consumer protection. The EU is just a paper tiger bullying US tech companies anyway because there are no tech companies in the EU that could be regulated. But in the end there's not much they can do anyway. Much worse is when the US courts get involved with Alphabet, because then the house could really burn.

The following 3 proceedings are currently underway:

1. search engine market lawsuit (United States v. Google LLC, 2020)

What is it about?

• On August 5, 2024 Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google has an illegal monopoly in the field of online search and search advertising constitutes.
• In November 2024 the US Department of Justice (DOJ) set out specific remedies including, for example, the spin-off of the Chrome browseran end to exclusive default deals (e.g. with Apple) or enforced data sharing for competitors
• Google rejected these proposals as "extreme" and argues that a sale of Chrome or restrictions on Android would jeopardize innovation and national security
• The The court hearing for the final decision on the remedies began in spring 2025; the judgment will be by August 2025 expected

2. advertising technology monopoly (Ad Tech, 2023 lawsuit)

What is at stake?

• On April 17, 2025 Judge Leonie Brinkema declared Google guilty of maintaining an illegal monopoly in its advertising technology business (ad exchange, ad server). illegal monopoly to have formed an illegal monopoly
• Google intends to appeal against this judgment appeal against this judgment.
• The DOJ is now calling for serious sanctions, including the sale of entire parts of the ad tech business

3rd Epic Games lawsuit (Play Store and in-app purchases)

What is it about?

• A US appeals court has on July 31, 2025 (i.e. last Thursday) confirmed the decision from 2023, according to which Google's app distribution model on Android to be anti-competitive and enforced forced in-app billing.
• Google is forced, third-party app stores (e.g. Epic itself) in the Play Store and to allow external payment options to allow external payment options.

So in summary, Google is accused of the search engine being illegal, the advertising business being illegal and the App Store also being illegal. I find it remarkable that news like this that threatens the business model is simply ignored because an appeal has been lodged. But if the appeal doesn't work out either, they don't even talk about it. Last Thursday's ruling now means a drastic slump in Android sales in the order of several billion per year. That would have been worth a post.

Such regulatory measures hit Google particularly hard. In principle, it is not so bad for shareholders when companies are broken up. This may even be positive for growth if we were talking about railroad, steel or oil production companies - business models that work perfectly well on their own. Google, on the other hand, is often figuratively depicted as a "data octopus". Now, if you simply cut off one of the octopus's arms, the octopus won't benefit, but at the same time you can't do much useful with the arm. So if Chrome is split off, this means that an enormous synergy effect is lost, but Chrome without Google is also for the garbage can.

The bottom line is that I can't quite understand why people keep raving about Alphabet being so cheap. With other companies, it is enough for some here that the DOJ scrutinizes the cousin of the CEO's uncle so that -99% market cap is absolutely justified and Alphabet, which has suffered real defeats in real court cases, is considered a safe bank.

At the moment, I would pay a maximum of USD 150 for Alphabet, but at the USD 190 currently being called for, you should really be 1000% sure that Google will not be convicted again this August.