The dry bulk market in mid-March 2025 is heating up in spots. Capesize rates are nearing a four-month peak, thanks to steady iron ore shipments, while Panamax gets a boost from a busy Atlantic after a slow start to the year. Supramax shows a mixed picture—Asia perks up, but the Atlantic stays patchy—and new ship orders hit a 30-year low, hinting at fewer ships down the road. U.S. tariffs and trade tensions are shaking things up, especially for Panamax grain routes, though Brazil’s soy surge offers a lift. It’s a market with some bright patches and plenty of questions still hanging.
This update covers Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax trends, plus the big forces at play. From rate jumps to trade shifts, here’s what’s happening.
⏬ Capesize Market: Rates Rise, Momentum Builds
Capesize ships, the biggest in dry bulk, saw rates climb to $23,697 per day by week’s end—up 16% since Monday and a massive 300% from February’s $5,939 low. In the Pacific, miners kept things moving with iron ore from West Australia, pushing C5 rates (Australia to China) to $11.58 per tonne before easing to $10.665—weather issues in China and closed ports cut down available ships. In the Atlantic, Brazil to China (C3) rates reached $25 per tonne for mid-April, helped by fewer ships heading over and steady cargo demand. The North Atlantic was quieter, but a couple of standout deals—like a $43,000/day transatlantic run—caught attention. Futures markets point to second-quarter rates above $23,000/day, and a big stake sale in Golden Ocean added some excitement. It’s a strong run, though some wonder if it’ll last without help from smaller ships.
⏳ Panamax Market: Atlantic Sparks a Surge
Panamax ships, the mid-sized haulers, sprang to life midweek, with average rates leaping 28% since Monday to $11,700 per day—close to a five-month high. The Atlantic took the lead, with minerals and grains from South and North America tightening ship supply—deals like $15,500/day for a year-long Japan-based ship showed the upswing. In the Pacific, North Pacific grains and Australian cargoes gave support, though the U.S. to China route sits at $43.507 per tonne, well off last year’s $65 peak. Brazil’s route to China climbed to $33.214 per tonne, and a bumper soy crop (172M tonnes) could push rates up by May or June. U.S. tariffs are slowing U.S. soy exports—stocks are building—shifting focus to Brazil. It’s a lively turnaround, but trade policies might keep things bumpy.
⏱️ Supramax Market: Asia Shines, Atlantic Wavers
Supramax, the smaller bulk carriers, had a week of ups and downs. Asia stood out with better rates—like $18,000/day for a coal trip from Indonesia to India—thanks to solid demand and fewer idle ships. The Atlantic was less steady: the U.S. Gulf held flat at $17,000/day for a petcoke run to India, while South America stayed even with deals in the upper $12,000s plus bonuses. Europe’s Continent-Mediterranean area felt balanced, hitting $15,000/day for a Far East trip, but the Indian Ocean lagged at $10,500/day for a South Africa-to-China run. Tariffs are making folks hesitant in the U.S., though South Africa’s cargo rush soaked up ships.Asia’s got some zip, but the Atlantic’s still finding its rhythm.
🌐 What’s Driving It: Trade Tensions and Ship Supply
A few big things are steering the market. U.S. tariffs—20% on China, 25% on Canada/Mexico—are hitting U.S. soy exports, boosting Brazil’s role and changing shipping paths—more distance could help, but it’s tricky for Panamax rates. New ship orders dropped to zero in February, the lowest in 30 years, with only 10% of the fleet on order—new ships won’t arrive until 2027-28, keeping things snug for now. Scrapping picked up, with 1M dwt recycled this year, nudging out older vessels. China’s iron ore and coal demand seems shaky, and trade wars might cool things off, but Brazil’s soy and corn could pick up the slack. It’s a mix of tight spots and big what-ifs shaping the next steps.
1 Year T/C Dry Bulk - March 12th
🚨 Outlook: Hot Spots and Cool Risks
Capesize might keep climbing if iron ore demand and low ship counts stick—rates near $24,000/day look good, but smaller ships need to step up to keep it going. Panamax has space to grow with Brazil’s soy season coming, though tariffs could limit U.S. gains—$14,000/day by April isn’t out of reach. Supramax’s Asia boost is promising, but the Atlantic needs more cargo to get moving—rates could stay steady unless demand shifts. Fewer new ships and more scrapping might lift rates later, but trade uncertainty keeps some risks in play. It’s a market with hot streaks and a few wait-and-see moments ahead.
💬 What Do You Think?
Feeling good about Capesize gains, or waiting on Panamax to prove itself? Share your thoughts—let’s talk it out! 🚢