$ELV (-0,76 %) Wide position
Elevance Health
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Discussion sur ELV
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6+++ News: Heated mood around US health insurers +++
The shares of well-known insurance companies such as $UNH (+1,64 %) but also those of competitors $ELV (-0,76 %)
$HUM (-2,08 %) and $CI (+0,21 %) have fallen surprisingly this week. Although the losses are limited, the reasons for this are more than just shocking.
As I reported earlier, the CEO of United Healthcare's insurance division was the victim of a targeted assassination. While the police are now investigating at full speed, the perpetrator is currently the target of downright hero worship on social media. The assassin is repeatedly equated with characters from pop culture such as Batman, Robin Hood or John Wick.
Insults against the victim and his family are also liked and shared thousands of times. It is not just the viciousness of the comments that is frightening - but the fact that, as is so often the case in such instances, the platforms simply let them stand.
Insurers' shares are currently falling because there are fears that there could be further murders of insurance employees. The management of the major insurance companies is alarmed and has hastily removed photos and other personal data of their "C-level executives" from their websites.
Commentary and classification: After the failed assassination attempt on Trump, I'm hardly surprised at the kind of people we're dealing with here. The same people who talk about democracy and human rights in every other sentence are the same people who are now calling for the assassination of their ideological opponents once again. Even a good ESG score doesn't help United Health against so much hatred.
From a purely shareholder perspective, this charged sentiment towards the banking and insurance sector is $JPM (+1,21 %) is of course a systemic risk when investing. However, these are not necessarily particularly controversial sectors. Retailers $WMT (-2,1 %) pharmaceuticals $PFE (+1,49 %)
$CVS (+0,57 %) consumer goods manufacturers $KVUE (-0,53 %)
$BATS (-0,24 %) defense companies $LMT (+0,94 %) etc. could soon find themselves in the crosshairs.
If you really want to be absolutely sure of being invested in a politically correct way, simply put your money in Northvolt and make a 90% loss. This also ensures that you can "eat the rich" can no longer be meant.
Valuation and Key Metrics
Elevance Health appears to be fairly valued, with key metrics highlighting both strengths and concerns:
P/E Ratio:
15.23, indicating a fair valuation compared to industry peers. Forward P/E of 12 suggests potential earnings growth.
PEG Ratio:
1.14, suggesting the stock is reasonably priced when factoring in growth expectations.
Free Cash Flow Yield:
Relatively low, indicating the need for improvement in cash flow generation.
Competitive Advantage (Moat)
Elevance Health has a significant economic moat, supported by an extensive provider network, brand strength, and
scale. Its broad healthcare services ensure a steady revenue stream. Risks include competition from industry giants and
regulatory changes.
Operational Efficiency
ROIC:
8.54%, which just barely exceeds the WACC of 8.5%. While positive, this does raise questions about capital efficiency.
CapEx to Cash Flow Ratio:
Low, indicating efficient capital allocation and the ability to generate returns without heavy CapEx reliance.
Financial Health and Risks
Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
0.62, reflecting moderate leverage. Debt-to-EBITDA of 2.51 indicates manageable but notable debt levels. Interest
coverage of 8.52 is strong.
Growth Potential
Dividend Yield:
1.54%, with a strong 3-year CAGR of 15.9%. The Chowder Number of 17.44 suggests robust growth prospects for
dividend investors.
DCF Valuation and Intrinsic Value
Using a WACC of 8.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, the intrinsic value is estimated at $457 per share. A margin
of safety yields a conservative buy range of $365 to $410, offering potential upside.
Conclusion
Elevance Health is a well-managed company with a solid economic moat and efficient operations. Its valuation metrics
and strong dividend growth make it attractive for long-term investors. However, potential regulatory risks and modest
returns on capital should be monitored.
The stock is a "Buy" within the safe entry range of $365 to $410.
$UNH (+1,64 %) - United Health
After the numbers were very solid and the other health insurers/sector didn't really react strongly.
Which other health insurers could also react strongly after the numbers and surprise positively?
Which one is your favorite and why ?
$CVS (+0,57 %) - CVS Health
$HUM (+5,48 %) - Humana
$ELV (-0,76 %) - Elevance Health
$HCA (+1,43 %) - HCA Healthcare
$CI (+0,21 %) - Cigna
$CNC (-0,82 %) - Centene
Or do you have other favorites or companies from the sector on your watchlist?
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𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁-𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗸𝗮𝘂𝗳𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗔𝗸𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻 / 𝗦𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗲𝗺 𝗡𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻 / 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝘄𝗲𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗳𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗻-𝗡𝗙𝗧
𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅
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Microsoft ($MSFT (-1,05 %)) - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is divesting half of his Microsoft shares, worth $285 million. According to a Microsoft spokesperson, Nadella is selling his shares for diversification and personal financial planning reasons. However, it is believed that he needs the money primarily for tax payments that may soon be due on long-term capital gains. For the same reason, Tesla ($TSLA (-4,58 %)) chief Elon Musk sold share packages worth billions.
Square ($SQ (+1,31 %)) - The payment service Square is changing its name to Block. The background to this is that Square now wants to focus more on the area of cryptocurrencies, the abbreviation "Block" stands for blockchain. The name change is to be implemented as early as December 10.
𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎
EU countries have agreed on new transparency rules for remittances using bitcoin ($BTC (-2,39 %)) and co. On Wednesday, the EU issued a press release saying that all transfers with cryptocurrencies should be traceable in the future. This would mean that anonymous cryptowallets would no longer be allowed. Crypto service providers would thus be obliged to make the information about the recipient and sender of the transfer transparent. The background of the EU lies in the fight against criminal transactions with cryptocurrencies.
Swiss Post NFTs - On Nov. 25, 2021, Swiss Post launched 175,000 NFT stamps for 8.90 Swiss francs each. The NFT stamps were well received, selling out after only four hours. The stamps are available in 13 different designs. The novel stamp can also be used to frank a letter through a QR code on the physical stamp. However, it is mainly used as a collector's item.
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𝗞𝗮𝗻𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗛𝗮𝗵𝗻 𝗻𝗼𝗰𝗵 𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻? / 𝗦𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗼 / 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻-𝗘𝗧𝗙 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗳𝘁
𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅
As of today, Apollo Senior Floating Rate Fund Inc. ($AFT), Argan Inc. ($1AW (-0,74 %)), Apollo Tactical Income Fund Inc. ($AIF), Colgate-Palmolive Company ($CPA (-1,99 %)), Eagle Bancorp Inc. ($2ZI (-0,39 %)), LTC Properties Inc. ($LTP (+0,27 %)), Mexico Fund Inc. ($MXF) and SLR Senior Investment Corp. ($SUNS) traded ex-dividend.
𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈
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𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️
Hahn Airport - After the Chinese HNA Group, which owns 82.5% of the airport, filed for insolvency earlier this year, the airport is now insolvent as well. At the time, the airport counted 4 million passengers annually, but after Ryanair diverted more and more flights to other airports, there were only 1.5 million passengers in 2019. After the HNA bankruptcy, however, the airport management was sure that this would not change anything in the operation.
Netflix ($NFC (+0,09 %)) - Quarterly numbers beat expectations:
User growth: 4.4 million instead of the expected 3.84
Earnings per share: $3.19 instead of $2.56
Revenue: $7.46 billion as expected
The reason for this strong growth was, among others, the successful series "Money Heist", "Sex Education" and "Squid Game". The latter was even streamed by 142 million users within 4 weeks of its release, making it the most successful Netflix production to date.
𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎
ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF - The first day of trading makes history as the new ETF pulled in nearly $1 billion in trading volume, making it the most successful ETF launch on the New York Stock Exchange.
At the same time, the bitcoin price ($64,608.00) rose to nearly its all-time high ($64,805.00), the BTC/EUR ($BTC-EUR (-2,39 %)) trading pair even managed to surpass the all-time high ($55,148.61)!
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