23H·

End of my custody account - what happens now?

As I announced yesterday, I am not at all satisfied with my current portfolio strategy at the moment. I have therefore decided that something has to change. At the moment, I'm mainly facing structural headwinds with my portfolio - both in terms of my preferred sectors and my preferred factors. But what bothers me much more is that the stocks I hold mainly for diversification in different sectors and markets are not working at all.

I have therefore decided that something has to change. I am going to reduce or close positions in my portfolio where I am not 100% convinced of their success. This will of course also significantly reduce the number of investment targets in my portfolio. So it's not about restructuring the portfolio, but actually about reducing the investment volume or divesting. It is not said that I will immediately find a new investment target within the portfolio every time I sell.

What has happened so far:

Sale of the Jenoptik position $JEN (-0,44 %)
Sale of the Edwards Lifesciences position $EW (-0,57 %)
Sale of the Take Two Interactive position $TTWO (+0,03 %)
Complete withdrawal from India, etc. $RIGD (-1,11 %)

Of course, I didn't hit the high on any of the sales, but that was clear anyway. Some of the sales had already been made in 2025.

What will happen now:

I have now concentrated my portfolio from around 40 stocks to just 34 stocks. This trend will continue. I will continue to try to get rid of stocks that have not proven themselves.

The problem is that many positions are deeply in the red and I hardly have any decent profits to offset them against each other. This delays the sale of positions considerably. Many of the stocks for sale are also currently mispriced.

The top sell targets include:

United Health $UNH (-0,56 %) - to be honest, I wanted to sell them last week if they had delivered poor or even expected figures. The fact that they then really surprised on the upside bought them time until the next quarterly report.
PayPal $PYPL (-0,6 %) - I haven't really been convinced here for some time now, but the undervaluation is also criminal. Sell yes, but not at any price.
Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (+0,04 %) - I actually have to get rid of this too, but only when I have something to offset. The share has certainly halved in value for the third or fourth time now. The only consolation is that it can't go any lower than 0.
OKTA $OKTA (+0,35 %) - this could be a logical next sell candidate. In less than a month there will be figures again. Breakeven is not far away. And the technology is currently no longer as unique as it once was.
Medios AG $ILM1 (+2,73 %) - dead stock that I've been carrying around for far too long. Nevertheless, the valuation is not justified. At some point it will go up again and then it will be gone.
I will also be taking a massive axe to the gaming sector as soon as it is in demand again.

As you can see, some shares are for sale, but in some cases the sale is not imminent due to the valuation. I assume that it could take several months to 2-3 years before all the shares are sold. The total number of shares will be in the range of 20-30, the portfolio volume will probably not exceed €100,000 due to the sales.

And what happens to the money?

I have already started with index investments in a separate custody account in the background over the last few months. This test balloon with around €5,000 has proved to be very successful so far. I will therefore start investing money that I don't need for individual share investments in the short term primarily in ETFs.

I am focusing on a manageable number of ETFs, although I will still try to include bets on factors, sectors and countries - simply because I enjoy it and I may also withdraw money from a well-performing ETF and use it elsewhere. My portfolio currently contains the following 4 products:

MSCI World Momentum Factor ETF
MSCI USA ETF
MSCI World Healthcare ETF
an actively managed fund that focuses on small caps and EM

Basically, I will try to get the ETF portfolio towards €100,000 and even if something changes in the product selection, most of it will probably end up in the MSCI USA, if we are completely honest.

Is there a long-term vision?

If I don't realize again in 5 years that none of this has worked out (I just have to try it out, I'm also living for the first time) then I imagine that in 10-15 years I will probably have 3 depots. I already have them now, I just don't use them.

The €100,000 individual share portfolio is to become (this time a real) Warren Buffet portfolio, with a few highly concentrated shares that I would really like to hold for life.

I would also like to hold €250,000 in an ETF portfolio.

There may also be a kind of trading portfolio of no more than €20,000 where I can buy shares such as $ASML (-0,19 %) 2025 and $META (-0,39 %) In principle, I follow my portfolio strategies very consistently, which is why I was unable to buy META due to the portfolio criteria. In a separate portfolio, I would also have the opportunity to take advantage of the clear setbacks or sometimes buy funny community stocks from Getquin like $IREN (+0,09 %) and $SOFI (+0,11 %) where I fear the volatility in the main portfolio.

If the sums don't work out, the ETF portfolio will only be 200k and the trading portfolio only 5k, but in principle it could work out something like this.

34 Comentarios

Chris@Multibagger

23H

Why don't you sell, even if you don't yet have any profits to offset? It doesn't matter which comes first. Gains or losses. If you shift the money into better performing assets, you only make the gains now and then offset them. What's the point of holding it if you can't offset the losses now, but they'll be 20-30% higher in 2-3 months. I think your main problem in the past was that you didn't get rid of the stocks you were convinced of but which performed badly.
Even with buy&hold you should limit losses.

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Soprano@Soprano

23H

@Multibagger Hm well, I don't know if I have such a massive problem with not being able to separate. I think I'm dealing with it realistically and don't have too much hope. My decision to sell Jenoptik, for example, came when the share was at €19 last year - I sold at €27 (and now it would even be at €33, but that doesn't really matter).

The core problem is that I couldn't do anything else with the proceeds of the sale apart from "sell low, buy high". I have enough in the clearing account to buy shares that I would really want to buy now. If I had more cash now, I wouldn't know what to do with it. The best I can do is sell shares at the all-time low and then buy the S&P 500 at the ATH. That wouldn't be really smart either, because I could have bought it cheaper a month ago.

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Chris@Multibagger

23H

@Soprano Jenoptik I don't mean stocks like Jenoptik. I try to follow the motto: let profits run, but hedge, but strictly limit losses. And that's where I see your problem. You may find it difficult to realize that the stock market does not see an investment case that you are convinced of. And that's why you keep accepting the losses, because you think that nothing has changed in your assessment of the share. That's also just a guess. So please don't be angry.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

22H

@Multibagger To be honest, I agree with him a little. I've already told you to sell things and you just seem to have problems selling stocks that are in the red but to which you are tied or still have a case. Fundamentally, I would just ask myself whether you want to hold the stocks like this and if not, I think the loss pot also goes over the year. My minus does not equal bad. My Sofi was also in the red for a long time before a 400% was made. The question is simply whether everything is right and sometimes it's not. Carl Zeiss, for example, I sold down brutally a long time ago. The market worked, but the company didn't and it would have been better off in other stocks. The pot of losses then gave me back the taxes I had paid and in the end I was almost breakeven. The rest of the position is more for fun and doesn't bother me at all. You should just do the same. With UNH, a quarterly report shouldn't persuade you to continue holding the stock. With PayPal, the value shouldn't keep you unless that was your case. Etc. In short, use the money elsewhere

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

22H

@topicswithhead I would also reduce my individual values. I've been doing that for a while now. Full diversification starts at just under 21 stocks and 30 is too many in the end. Not only in terms of my capacity to invest, but also in itself. The stocks that go up never have such a big weight in the end because there was never a lot of money in them. That's why I'm now at 20 to 25 stocks plus ETF. The ETF should make up 50% in the long term and in the 20 stocks plus max. 5 trading stocks I still have a lot of leeway to continue my hobby.

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Soprano@Soprano

20H

@Multibagger Yes, the way you say it now is true. But that's where the question arises: why should I sell if my conviction is still there? I only sell when the case no longer stands. And that's often only when the figures are really bad, not because someone has come up with a narrative. Because these narratives are often not true.

The same question goes to @topicswithhead I remind you how you held on to Alphabet (rightly so) because you were convinced of the figures and products and you completely ignored the narrative and the bad momentum.

By the way, what you write in the second post is pretty much what I intend to do.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

19H

@Multibagger I also always find it difficult to part with stocks that are performing badly. Especially if you hope that the company will turn around at some point. My portfolio includes $BAYN (Bayer). I was down 70% at times (now 50%). Somehow I'm hoping that they will finally overcome the legal disputes in the USA and then things will pick up again. I might buy some more to push down my average price. 🫣

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Chris@Multibagger

17H

@Soprano but you don't really want to compare $GOOGL with $JEN. They are worlds apart. As a buy and hold investor, you can still say that $GOOGL is a top company like $MSFT, but $JEN is a chip shop by comparison.
I am perhaps much more consistent in this respect. I'm not a buy and hold investor either. I buy a lot of companies because I think the current investment case is good. If they don't develop as expected, I get rid of them after 2-3 months at the latest, even if I don't think the investment case has changed. However, they are mostly small caps or mid caps at most.

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Chris@Multibagger

17H

@NichtRelevant You see, and I don't understand that. A share that falls 50% has to rise 100% just to reach my purchase price again. I think that's totally crazy. I'd be better off selling at 20-30% down at the latest and trying another company that might have better momentum.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

17H

@Multibagger I'm beyond help. 😅
Fortunately, the Bayer scenario is very rare.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

16H

@Soprano Well, if your case still stands, you should of course hold the share, but that's not true for most people. Much more often the case is simply well spoken or otherwise. With your shares, however, I actually find it difficult to defend the case without having heard everyone. I have a very negative view of UNH, PayPal and AFX, but that doesn't mean you're wrong. Rather, you can check if you are still on your case by asking yourself why the market is so bearish on stocks. Well, I'm only an internet colleague here anyway and of course only wish them ternbaggers 😘

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Ver todas las 5 respuestas adicionales

Mr. K@TechNav

23H

All the individual stocks mentioned in your article really need to be sold slowly. Personally, they don't convince me at all for the future.

Unfortunately, the choice of ETFs is also questionable.
Momentum ETFs often pick up the hype stocks too late and experience the whole downturn when the hype is over because they rebalance too late.
USA ETF is ok but you are deliberately buying perfectly priced-in prices, so currently far too expensive to see relevant p.a. returns in the next 5-10 years.
World healthcare...well unfortunately there is far too much speculation in this sector.
With the active fund I would like to see past-performance opportunities that outperform a simple value-EM ETF $5MVL.

Did they really suggest a boring $VWRL 70% with $TDIV 30% as a portfolio idea?

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

22H

@TechNav not quite, at least with the MSCI World Momentum Index there are thresholds in the construction that ensure that you don't have every bump in the index that is currently rising. There are also measures that are taken in the event of a crash:

1. the "Conditional Rebalancing" (Extraordinary Rebalancing)
This is the most important built-in "emergency brake". Normally, the index is only adjusted twice a year (May and November). However, if the markets become extremely turbulent, this rule comes into play:
The trigger: if the volatility (range of fluctuation) of the market jumps and exceeds a historical threshold (the 95th percentile of monthly volatility changes), an ad hoc rebalancing is triggered.
The effect is that the index does not wait until the next six months, but immediately throws out stocks whose trend has just broken and picks up more defensive stocks that hold up better in the new market environment.

2. risk-adjusted momentum score
The index does not simply select stocks based on the highest return.
The formula: A stock gets a high score if it has performed well while showing relatively low volatility.
The effect: shares that have risen sharply but fluctuate wildly ("gambler shares") are given a lower score or are dropped completely. This is intended to prevent the index from becoming too susceptible to speculative bubbles.

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Mr. K@TechNav

22H

@TotallyLost Very interesting! I didn't know about the ad-hoc rebalancing.

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

21H

@TechNav I only noticed this last time by chance...
Which is frightening when you consider that I've been invested in it for 5 years 😅

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Soprano@Soprano

21H

@TotallyLost I wouldn't have been able to explain it so well

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Epi@Epi

20H

Your will and your ability to self-correct are worthy of all respect.

However, it seems to me that you are reproducing the same mindset over and over again with new values. In other words, my prediction would be: In 5 years, you'll be roughly exactly where you are today - with different assets in your portfolio, but the same problems, questions, approaches. 🤷

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Soprano@Soprano

20H

@Epi In what aspect does my mindset differ from that of any other investor?

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Epi@Epi

20H

@Soprano I'm afraid your mindset doesn't differ much, if at all. Hence your below-average return, which is symptomatic of private investors.

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Soprano@Soprano

18H

@Epi You know that's not what I meant. But in comparison to the professionals. For example, those who have not outperformed me are Cathy Wood and Howard Marks. Do they also have the wrong mindset? What aspect of our mindset is wrong? Or can you have a very poor performance even with a good mindset - for other reasons?

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Epi@Epi

14H

@Soprano It's difficult to say exactly which aspect of your mindset is wrong. I don't know it well enough to do that. But you can see that something is wrong when you don't achieve market performance.

My first guess would be that it is a kind of illusion of control to be able to draw conclusions about future performance from favorable valuations. It just doesn't work, even if private investors keep trying.

A second assumption would be a lack of patience. If the valuation really is too cheap, there may well be 10 years of underperformance before things normalize. Cathy Wood could perhaps hold out longer than some private investors.

But as I said, these are just guesses. Only you can give the final answer as to what is going wrong. The only thing that seems certain to me is that something is wrong with your mindset and if you don't address it, you'll be exactly where you are now in five years' time. 🤷

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Rainero@MozartsGeist

13H

@Epi The main problem is usually a lack of patience. Nowadays, it is also often a lack of discipline, not only when investing money. I also fear that a not inconsiderable proportion of the population has unfortunately not understood that compound interest follows a law of nature (eFunction). 🫣

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Soprano@Soprano

@Epi But you confirm once again that poor performance comes from poor mindsets.

As if it is unlikely that you have the right mindset but the wrong strategy. And if it's wrong, you have to change it, maybe 2-3 times, that's part of it. Unfortunately, you can't simply adopt an existing strategy, as some of these are no longer adapted to the market parameters. Example: The deep value investing for which Benjamin Graham was known only worked until people had a calculator.

The only strategy that has always been successful is index investing, which is why it is recommended. Otherwise, there has been nothing that has always generated alpha under all circumstances and if you want to try it at all, you inevitably have to take additional risks. Even a GTAA cannot escape this logic.

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Epi@Epi

@Soprano Of course, it is possible that you have the wrong strategy for the right mindset. How are you going to find out?

There is a pattern in your original post: the share is cheap, so I buy it because it has to go up. But it regularly doesn't.

In this case, it doesn't seem to be due to an individual share, but to the underlying assumption that a cheap share must rise. Exchanging a cheap share for another cheap share does nothing if the factors for a rise are completely different.

There are certainly other factors than valuation and momentum. GTAA is certainly not the only sensible alternative to index investing, but it is one that I understand. If you have another one, great. But at the moment you don't seem happy with your performance and I'm afraid that's not going to change. Don't see it as a criticism, but as an indication of the possible blind spot that is holding your account on a leash. We all just want a bit of alpha here. 😬

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Soprano@Soprano

32Min

@Epi Well, I'm not a value investor. If I were to buy cheap shares, I would have to be very enthusiastic about DAX shares such as VW, BASF and the like. So apparently I have different criteria for investments.

As a qualitative investor, valuations are only of secondary interest to me. The key questions for me are how good the product is and how competitive the company is. In the end, the valuation has to match this or not. But a valuation alone does not interest or impress me at all.

I don't take offense, but my mind is not that simple. For me, it's about finding out why, despite my innate pessimism, I consistently overestimate the products and the competence of the management of my companies.

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TradingHase@TradingHase

23H

I've also tinkered around a lot in the past because I didn't feel comfortable.
Everyone has to find the way they feel comfortable with. There is no right or wrong way. The only thing is that one person may have a slightly higher return than the other 😉.

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Schmon@SchmonInvest

22H

Another addition could be $IEFM and/or $XNKY?

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

18H

I don't think I would be totally pessimistic. You also have some good positions in your portfolio. The positions in the red are not necessarily all bad either - I would just go through them all step by step, analyze them again and check their future viability.

I think you are right and would do well to reduce the number of individual stocks. Perhaps you can use the proceeds from the sales to gradually add a boring but reliable core from a broadly diversified ETF to the remaining individual stocks. You are already on the lookout here or already have some.

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Soprano@Soprano

18H

@NichtRelevant That's exactly the plan

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