Congratulations to all those who didn't listen to KGV beginners and stuck to their guns. I will continue to hold. Beginners who are blinded by the P/E ratio have stocks like Bayer and VW in their portfolios 📉. What percentage is Palantir up for you?

#pltrgang
$PLTR (+4,6 %)
$BAYN (-1,51 %)
$VOW (+2,63 %)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/vgEC8AK9nrA?si=Luo_VSckLrkhrVLu

Monday:

Despite fairly high inflation, Bank of England central banker David Ramsden sees further interest rate cuts. The prime rate currently stands at 4.0%, with inflation at 3.8%. The BoE left the prime rate at 4.0% in the middle of the month, after 5 cuts in a row.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/boe-vizechef-der-notenbank-in-london-sieht-noch-spielraum-fuer-niedrigere-leitzinsen/100158919.html

Tuesday:

Inflation in Germany rises to 2.4%, slightly above expectations. While energy prices are falling, services in particular are becoming more expensive.

https://www.ftd.de/wirtschaft-und-politik/geldpolitik/inflation-deutschland-aktuell-verbraucher-preise-im-september-2025-und-prognose/

Wednesday:

At 2.2%, the inflation rate in the eurozone as a whole is also above the ECB's target of 2.0%. The price driver of food costs in particular makes further interest rate cuts unlikely for the time being.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-lebensmittelpreise-machen-ezb-zinssenkungen-unwahrscheinlich/100157362.html

Pharmaceutical companies$BAYN (-1,51 %) Bayer benefits from Trump's announcement of the new government platform TrumpRX. In future, US Americans will be able to buy medicines more cheaply via this platform. After an initial deal with $PFE (+0,42 %) Pfizer, other pharmaceutical manufacturers are now hoping for deals and thus tariff relief. The threatened tariffs are 100%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/handelskonflikt-trumprx-drueckt-preise-fuer-medikamente-pharma-aktien-steigen/100157328.html

Donald Trump cannot dismiss Fed member Lisa Cook for the time being. The Supreme Court ruled that the council member can keep her position for the time being. However, there will be another decision in January. The markets initially reacted calmly, as it underscores the Fed's independence.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/supreme-court-lisa-cook-darf-vorerst-fed-ratsmitglied-bleiben/100159550.html

For the first time in 6 years, the USA is in shutdown again. Many employees of federal authorities are being sent on forced leave.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-10/usa-shutdown-behoerden-haushalt-republikaner-demokraten

Friday:

While it was German Unity Day in Germany, it was business as usual in the USA. The labor market figures are of course interesting in this context. However, they were not available today because the Bureau of Labor Statistics was on forced leave due to the shutdown. Almost like the public holiday in Germany.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna235298

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 01:50 Current account (Japan)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC Minutes (USA)

Thursday: 08:00 Trade Balance (DE)

Can you think of any other dates?

#leistungsbilanz
#handelsüberschuss
#protokoll
#fed

$BAYN (-1,51 %) i didn't think i would become so bullish on the company now, but i will start a small position at the next small dip. The glyphosate thing is not over but everything will be decided in 2026 and it is really 50 50, donald thrump has something in the big beautiful bill regarding pesticides that is good for bayer. Apart from that, america is dependent on pesticides. I would recommend that you look up more details yourself, because you can form your own opinion.

Conclusion

I do not believe that trump will change the big beautiful bill despite kennedy's advice. If bayer wins the lawsuit there will be 7 billion on top of the 6 billion cash is a doubling +-. I will therefore open a small position soon and speculate.

...it's not directly about the stock market, but about the (other) most beautiful minor matter in the world 😁

But also indirectly about $BVB (-1,16 %)
$BAYN (-1,51 %)
$VOW (+2,63 %)
$SAP (+1,85 %)
$MNST (-0,53 %) *

We are already a good two dozen tipsters, but would love to have more ✌️

https://www.kicktipp.de/tippers-of-getquin/

Greetings

🥪

*or a competitor 😉

Today I have changed my position in Bayer completely.

📉 Reason: Ongoing operational challenges, weak share price performance and lack of prospects for a short-term turnaround. No longer fits into my future core/satellite strategy.

💰 Use of funds: Reinvestment in global core ETFs to strengthen the base in the portfolio.

My goal remains: Fewer individual stocks, more focus on long-term stable structures.

$BAYN (-1,51 %)

Key figures

• Sales: € 10.7 billion (-3.6% nominal, +0.9% adjusted for currency and portfolio effects)
• EBITDA pre exceptionals: € 2.105 billion (-0.3%)
• Adjusted earnings per share: 1,23 € (+30,9 %)
• Consolidated net income: € -0.2 billion (special items for legal cases, partially offset by write-ups at Crop Science)
• Free cash flow: € 0.1 billion
• Net financial debt: € 33.3 billion
• Forecast: Currency-adjusted sales and earnings forecast raised; however, negative currency effects are still expected.

Segment development

• Crop Science: +2.2% (Fx & portfolio adj.), earnings significantly improved due to cost reductions and write-ups.
• Pharmaceuticals: Sales stable (Fx & portfolio adj.), but significant decline in earnings due to higher R&D costs and unfavorable product mix (decline in Xarelto, increase in Nubeqa and Eylea).
• Consumer Health: Stable sales (Fx & portfolio adj.), earnings improved due to cost efficiency and lower restructuring expenses.

Analysis

• Positive:
• Strong increase in adjusted EPS thanks to improved financial result and lower tax expenses.
• Crop Science delivers positive surprises despite legal burdens.
• Forecast increase signals confidence among management.
• Negative:
• Legal risks (especially glyphosate) continue to be a burden.
• Pharmaceuticals with margin pressure and higher expenses for research and new products.
• Very low free cash flow and continued high net debt.

➡ Conclusion: Bayer shows operational stability and progress in Crop Science as well as in cost reductions, but struggles with structural pressure in Pharmaceuticals and high debt. The forecast increase is positive in the short term, but risks remain in the long term due to legal disputes and margins in the Pharmaceuticals division.

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$BAYN (-1,51 %)

📈 Increase in forecast 2025 (currency-adjusted)

- Sales: now €46-48 billion (previously €45-47 billion)

- EBITDA pre exceptionals: €9.7-10.2 billion (previously €9.5-10.0 billion)

- Earnings per share (EPS, adjusted): €4.80-5.30 (previously €4.50-5.00)

- Free cash flow / debt: unchanged

📊 Divisions - Outlook

- Pharmaceuticals: Sales growth 0-3% (previously -4% to -1%), margin 24-26%

- Crop Science: Forecast confirmed

- Consumer Health: Growth at the lower end of +2-5%, margin 23-24

⚖️ US legal disputes

- Provisions by €1.7 billion increased

- Of which €1.2 billion for glyphosate

- €530 million for PCB cases (including SVEC, Seattle)

- Glyphosate lawsuits reduced to 61.000

- Goal: significant defusing of the US disputes by end of 2026

📆 Q2 figures (preliminary)

- Turnover: €10.7 billion

- EBITDA pre exceptionals: €2.1 billion

- Adjusted EPS: €1,23

- Free cash flow: €0.1 billion

- Net financial debt: €33.3 billion

- Special items in EBIT: -€1.0 billion

🔜 Final Q2 results: August 6, 2025

$BAYN (-1,51 %) Good evening everyone, I would like to share my thoughts on Bayer here, as there hasn't been a proper post about it recently.

Basically, of course, the Monsanto chains are still on Bayer, and quite firmly at that.

Current legal situation:

The US Supreme Court is now involving the Attorney General and is considering Bayer's appeal in a key case (Durnell) as the company tries to assert federal preemption .

In parallel, a settlement is being sought in Missouri. If that fails, Bayer is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for the Monsanto subsidiary - to consolidate current and future lawsuits - according to the WSJ.

Consequences:

Supreme Court decision on appeal (esp. Durnell case): positive would be federal protection from state lawsuits.

Missouri settlement: if achieved, it could break waves - if not, Chapter 11 looms.

Bayer internal:

Bayer is working on a glyphosate substitute and wants to launch a new, less controversial herbicide formulation on the market as early as 2028.

CEO Bill Anderson does not plan to spin off the agricultural division - instead, a new organizational model is to be established that decentralizes decision-making processes and makes them flatter.

For Monsanto as an independent brand, there is currently no longer an operating unit The brand was integrated in 2018, but the legal intention is to use it specifically in the event of insolvency (Chapter 11 of the US subsidiary) in order to bundle liabilities there and remain in the parent company outside of insolvency.

I would therefore assume, based on the analysts' stance, that Bayer will most likely be able to close the deal with Monsanto in the course of 2026. Either through a final, national settlement or through insolvency of the subsidiary.

Consequently, it is forecast that Bayer could and would pay a dividend of between EUR 1 and EUR 2 again in 2027.

UBS assumes that Bayer will pay a dividend of EUR 2 to 3 again in 2030 and that the share price will have recovered strongly by then.

This would mean a dividend yield of around 10% on today's capital employed.

One must not forget that the machinery behind bayer is still running very well, they are still making billions in sales. Of course, this is overshadowed by the debt. Nevertheless, the company is not functioning well and, in my opinion, also has a good pipeline. Especially with the first approvals in the USA this week, this is a good opportunity, as approvals in the EU and China will then become easier.

So if Monsanto were to be shelved, that would be a great opportunity.

If not, and Bayer were to spin off and file for bankruptcy for the spin-off, it would also be a great opportunity, as Bayer is still doing very well.

But why is the stock not yet priced in like this?

Fear of the management. It is conceivable that a national settlement will be reached in the USA, with far too high costs, which Bayer will nevertheless accept for image reasons and take on much more debt, to a disproportionate extent, instead of letting a subsidiary go bankrupt. I see this as the biggest fear at the moment.

• Nevertheless, I think Bayer has excellent opportunities over the next three years, which is why I filled my position today.

$CCL (-0,32 %) One of my long-term stocks has been trimmed back from overweight (4%) to normal size (2.5%). A few months ago I bought at €15 and €17 and have now partially sold at €25. The share will not disappear completely for me. I am hoping for a recovery of €30+. If it falls below €20 again, I will slowly overweight again. This game has been played from time to time for the last 5 years and the positive management of the debt, in addition to the constant good news, slowly speaks for a breakthrough.

$BAYN (-1,51 %) I bought in at the beginning of April at €22, but have now decided to close the position at just under €27. I actually wanted to hold the share long, but somehow I can't warm to it. Perhaps it will find its way back into my portfolio at some point.

$AVGO (-0,78 %) In the April crash, I bought the stock at €151 (2% weighting) using a Lombard loan (10% portfolio size), among other things, and the position has now been closed at €224. More was not my target recovery to old ATH.

$9618 (-0,65 %) Unfortunately, this position was closed with a minus of 13%. The reason for this was the annual rebalancing in which the China portion had become too large for me. As I was convinced by $1211 (-2,37 %) , $BABA (-1,36 %) and $PDD (+0,43 %) JD had to give way.

Portfolio purchase:

$OXY (-0,81 %) Bought another small tranche. After the 10% slump, I had some capital left over, which was invested at 36.50. One of my larger individual bets with a 5% portfolio weighting.

A new addition to the portfolio is $TX (+0,64 %) with a small position of 1%. The reason sounds stupid, but it's a little chat GPT experiment. I wanted to be told which stocks were selected according to the Columbia Buffet approach. I was given 5 suggestions, some of which were frankly garbage. But this stock somehow got me hooked. Which is why I took the risk with only 1% of my portfolio (just over 1k).

Note:

My single stock portfolio Smartbroker plus makes up 2/3 of the asset class equities.

1/3 are Etf's with Trade Republic.

In total, equities make up 90% of my investable assets.

In addition to my three equity ETFs, TR holds my real estate REIT ($O (+0,18 %) approx. 5%), as well as my gold ETC ($SGBS (+0,21 %) 2.5%) and my gold miner Etf ($GDXJ (-1,75 %) 2.5%) which make up the remaining 10%.

Approximate total assets 100k (more like 95k :/ due to volatility) but debt free (except for a 3.5k balance on the Lombard loan). I have been investing since 2020 and am 28 years young.