Hello👋, I am presenting my final custody account here. It is split between two different brokers. This is mainly about the shares and not the ETFs.
Preface:
I am not a professional, so one or the other may not make sense or even be wrong. I have roughly expressed my thoughts on my portfolio here. The ETFs only serve as a core. Crypto may be added as the last investment in a few months. At the most, equities will be reallocated. I hope one or the other can take a look. 😊Have fun!
Strategy:
I focus primarily on long-term investments, but also occasionally on medium-term projects. Primarily growth and value focused, but also a little more passive investing to take out a little volatility and provide a little more crisis stability. I think a little overweighting in the USA makes sense, but I don't have an insignificant allocation to Europe and Asia either, in order to reduce the geopolitical risk somewhat.
Savings plans are based exclusively on the MSCi World.
Most of the company figures have been taken into account (I have turned a blind eye to some of them as I see advantages elsewhere). The main figures looked at are sales, EBIT, EBITDA, equity/debt ratio, return on equity, return on sales, EBIT margin, EBITDA margin, net margin, any share buybacks or number of shares outstanding, free cash flow, cash flow per share, book value per share, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, KCV, KUV, fair value (worst, base and best case scenario), employee hiring or layoffs.
And all these values are considered in historical development and the current market environment.
Why this geographical and distribution?
USA: approx. 58%
Germany: approx. 9%
Japan: approx. 6%
France: approx. 5%
China/Taiwan: approx. 4%
Ireland: approx. 4%
Singapore: approx. 3%
Others: approx. 11%
🇺🇸USA Overweight, as this is where I see the most attractive companies and where most returns have been achieved historically. Politically, I do not see any major risks for the country in the long term that should have a significant impact on corporate culture. The only major concern for me is the high national debt.
I do not see 🇩🇪Deutschland as a growth country, but as one that can at least maintain its value in relative terms. That's why I'm betting on passive companies here. In terms of geopolitics and domestic policy, I only see the ongoing migration crisis and division of the population as problematic.
🇫🇷Frankreich as a luxury location. Why luxury? I explain in the commentary on LVMH. Location risks here similar to Germany.
For me, 🇯🇵Japan is above all because of its propensity to buy, as well as its hard-working and innovative society. The concern here is the low birth rate, which is not compensated for by migration, for example, but at least this is increasingly being addressed. Other concerns are possible military conflicts with North Korea, China and also Russia. However, there have not yet been any really serious confrontations here and I think they are relatively unlikely.
🇨🇳🇹🇼China/Taiwan does have interesting companies, but the geopolitical risk is higher here. Of course, I can't say to what extent this will occur. Therefore a relatively small share.
Ireland, as many companies locate here due to the favorable tax conditions and the country is virtually conflict-free.
🇸🇬Singapur as a better and complementary alternative to China/Taiwan. Very affluent people who are keen to buy are also settling here. Hardly any political risk.
What about other countries?
🏴England, has relatively few attractive companies for me, as well as the ultimate austerity policy and Brexit will continue to affect the country for a while. I see the same political risks here as in France and Germany, but increasingly severe, as you can see from the latest news. The only reason to invest would be to add a European country outside the EU.
I simply don't see 🇮🇳🇧🇷Indien and Brazil as emerging markets. The countries I selected were simply a better alternative.
🇦🇺Australien would be interesting as a location, but I can't find any better alternatives or attractive companies here.
Why this sectoral distribution?
IT: approx. 33%
Consumer goods: approx. 13%
Basic consumption: approx. 11%
Health: approx. 10%
Financial services: approx. 10%
Industry: approx. 8%
Real estate: approx. 6%
Materials: approx. 5%
Energy/utilities: approx. 3%
Other: approx. 1%
🖥️⌨️IT mainly due to their high margins and easy access for consumers. This sector simply generates returns. Disadvantage: high volatility and tendency to overvaluation.
🧥🚗Consumer goods, as a somewhat more passive investment to take some of the volatility out. There are also always good opportunities to buy more here, as they are cyclical.
🍺🥤I think basic consumption is obvious, as these are always needed and used in any market environment.
💸🏦Financial services as a stable yield and dividend payer.
🏡Real estate, as housing shortages are a major issue nowadays, especially in Western society. Here, too, primarily because of the dividend
⚡️Die other sectors mainly for diversification and lower volatility.
Stock selection:
🤖NVIDIA $NVDA (+3.67%) By far the best chip designer. Nothing comes close to NVIDIA graphics cards. Still very expensive, but I remain very convinced of the company. The CUDA technology is also an absolute pioneer and others will have to rely on this technology for the next few years, as nobody is on the right track to create an alternative. I do think that there will be a lot more competition in the future, because of course you don't want to be dependent on a single chip designer. However, if Nvidia positions itself more broadly and acquires companies, I don't see a big problem. And from personal experience, there are no better product alternatives (e.g. AMD often has faulty drivers etc.).
Opportunities: AI, technical pioneers, innovations
Risk: Increasing competition, not playing to their current position
Intention: Growth
👗🍷LVMH $MC (+2.48%) Luxury always works, as they say. There will always be rich and poor and the poor will always strive to be rich, so luxury goods are bought by all social classes. In addition, LVMH is very broadly positioned with all spirits, perfume and clothing brands, jewelry and watches, make-up. And including the most popular brands. Of course, it is a cyclical company, so when inflation or other difficulties arise in industrialized nations, this company weakens, but that always brings good entry opportunities. I don't see a big excess return here, as there are few growth opportunities, but a solid return with a small dividend.
Opportunities: broad portfolio with strong brands, dominance in the luxury segment, growth in emerging markets
Risk: Dependence on Bernard Arnault, economic fluctuations
Intention: Growth
🤓👓Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (+0.38%) The company is weakening at the moment, but despite active share buybacks and figures that are not bad for the situation, as well as low debt, I see no reason for this share to fall so low. I have also spent a lot of time in hospitals etc. due to my illness and see absolute dominance here (at least in Germany). Although the US business is weakening, it is still growing in Europe.
Opportunities: strong brand position, technically well established, increasing demand
Risk: Competition
Intention: Growth primarily in the medium term
🤧⛑️CVS Health $CVS (-0.64%) : Largest and most established pharmacy chain in the USA. Very many locations, can't disappear from one day to the next. Favored by competition from Amazon, as they are also starting to sell drugs. Although the stock is not my best friend (I am also looking for alternatives), I think that advice and help in a pharmacy is essential when taking medication and that pure sales are not the real thing. However, dividends are the main focus.
Opportunities: many locations, strong brand position
Risk: Competition, dependence on other healthcare institutions
Intention: Dividend and medium-term growth
🛜💻Crowdstrike Holdings $CRWD (+3.09%) : Well ahead in terms of product technology (the major incident also showed how many companies are using it, as it is obviously the best technically). I wanted to overweight the cybersecurity segment somewhat, as I think it is very important for the future, as hacker attacks can paralyze more and more important infrastructure. I see more growth opportunities here than with its competitors (Palo Alto, Microsoft etc.) as the company is still relatively small. I am of course critical of the incident, but not as critical as the market. Just an update error with far-reaching consequences. But it doesn't change the fact that they are bad purely in terms of the product or core business. The risk here is of course the loss of trust and possible fines, which will probably lead to lower profits in the near future. Mistakes made, lessons learned and moving on is my motto.
Opportunities: technical pioneer, many opportunities for expansion as still relatively small.
Risk: Loss of trust and penalties due to the incident, strong competition
Intention: Growth
🏠Realty Income $O (-2.72%) As with any real estate share, I am hoping for falling interest rates in particular, as the company has many binding contracts with institutional tenants that will secure a certain basic turnover over the next few years. However, I am still looking for a more passive investment with a dividend. So no excess return expected.
Opportunities: government subsidies, interest rate turnaround, regular income
Risk: high interest rates, inflation, government restrictions
Intention: primarily dividends, but also possible returns through interest rate cuts.
💻Microsoft $MSFT (+1.09%) Broadly diversified in the tech sector with cloud, gaming, software, cyber security, AI. Not one of the most popular companies for nothing. Company figures hardly ever disappoint, steady growth and repeated acquisitions. Risk possibly limited due to monopolistic position. In addition, they are sitting on a lot of money, which they can use accordingly in the event of crises, opportunities, etc.
Opportunities: broad portfolio in the IT sector, AI
Risk: regulatory restrictions, competition
Intention: Growth
🚗Mercedes Benz Group $MBG (-2.54%) : I am somewhat skeptical about the car industry at the moment, as the exact direction of development is not clear, but Mercedes Benz is now building combustion engines beyond 2030, which I think makes financial sense. Also from personal experience and interest, I see how a car cult has continued to develop over generations. This means that the joy and respect for the brand will be carried on for generations to come. In terms of design, they are far ahead, especially in the interior. Unfortunately, there is an increasing tendency towards luxury, but I see that with all brands. The main risk here is the lack of transparency in the entire industry: where is development heading? E-mobility? Alternative fuels? Cars only as luxury goods and no longer affordable for the small purse? However, the focus here is not on returns, but on dividends and constantly new entry opportunities (as they are very cyclical).
Opportunities: strong brand position, new form of transportation, luxury segment
Risk: strong competition, government restrictions/regulations
Intention: dividend, passive
🥤Coca Cola $KO (-1.76%) Broad product range, will always be used no matter what. Growth opportunities only through acquisitions.
Opportunities: broad portfolio, strong brand position, adaptation/innovation (e.g. sugar-free drinks)
Risk: competition, health trends
Intention: dividend, passive
📉📈Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B (-0.11%) : Consider Warren Buffett and his existing successors to be very competent in the event of his death. I also chose it because of the insurance sector. Sitting on a lot of money.
Opportunities: Expansion of the insurance segment, stock market profits, competent managers
Risk: Economic fluctuations, competition
Intention: Growth
🌳🏠UFP Industries $UFPI (+2.96%) Broadly positioned in the materials sector (primarily wood and fasteners). Active in production, packaging, retail and construction. Internationally active. Above all, more and more prefabricated houses made of wood are being built worldwide. Wood etc. is also needed in so many areas, such as construction, furniture, art etc. and I don't see why this should change. The risks are possible restrictions on timber extraction (nature reserves etc.)
Opportunities: broad portfolio, brand position, steady growth
Risk: regulatory restrictions, dependence on raw material prices
Intention: growth
🏦💸DBS Group Holdings $D05 (+1.51%) Singapore is a very exciting and advantageous location in my opinion, like the Asian Monaco. I see strong population growth and other factors, such as economic developments in East Asian regions, as beneficial. Nevertheless, I am still looking for dividends here with a possible stable yield.
Opportunities: Growth at the location, innovation, brand position
Risk: Regulatory restrictions, economic fluctuations
Intention: Dividend and growth
🕴️Accenture $ACN (-0.85%) Online consulting company. I think many investors don't have this sector on their radar, although it is performing well. Advice will also always be needed, especially in today's world, where you have to keep track of so much, you are dependent on this help. Online advice is also relatively independent.
Opportunities: strong brand position, AI, innovation
Risk: Competition, dependence on major customers
Intention: Growth
📸🏙️Adobe $ADBE (+2.84%) Video and photo editing. Art has also arrived in the digital world, so this software is essential. AI can help here in terms of time and also artistically, but a human hand will still have to keep an eye on it, at least for the next few decades. The subscription model also ensures a certain basic income. The software cannot be improved technically or visually, it is practically perfected.
Opportunities: AI, broad portfolio, strong market position, technical pioneer, regular income due to subscription model
Risk: Competition, AI
Intention: Growth
⚡️🧱Itochu $8001 (+4.11%) : Since I wanted to have a somewhat more passive investment with a broad portfolio, Itochu was a very good choice, as I did not want to miss out on the Japanese market and they are successfully active in many different areas. They have also performed well in recent years despite their broad portfolio. Textiles and consumer goods, machinery, metals, energy (oil, gas), chemicals (chemicals, pharmaceuticals), food, real estate, logistics. After the small decline, I couldn't say no.
Opportunities: broad portfolio, strategic partnerships, innovation
Risk: competition, regulatory restrictions
Intention: growth
Gimmicks:
Ocugen💉$OCGN (+1.98%) : On the recommendation of a chief physician. Absolute gambling😅
Opportunities: cancer therapy, vaccinations, other types of therapy
Risk: small market capitalization, not profitable
Intention: Growth
💸Paypal $PYPL (+5.3%) : Good figures after good figures. Still very well established and yet fell so low. The share is simply the goat of the stock market. The only big risk I see is the strong competition, such as Apple Pay, Google Pay etc. But if they manage to assert themselves, it will very likely be a turnaround.
Opportunities: strong brand position
Risk: strong competition
Intention: turnaround
Thanks for reading!❤️
