$CNC (+1.59%)
$CI (-0.33%)
$OSCR
$UNH (+0.09%)
$HUM (-2.02%)
$CVS (-0.84%)

$CNC (+1.59%) Centene has withdrawn its earnings guidance for 2025 after new data showed significantly higher morbidity and lower than expected growth in the Marketplace business. This resulted in a decline in net revenue from risk adjustment of approximately $1.8 billion and a decline in earnings of approximately $2.75 per share. Medicaid costs are also rising, particularly in the areas of mental health, home care and expensive drugs in states such as New York and Florida. $CNC (+1.59%) plans a price correction for 2026 and will provide more information in its Q2 results on July 25.

Oscar Health $OSCR is also down due to its high presence in this area, as are other insurance stocks such as $HUM (-2.02%) , $CI (-0.33%) and $UNH (+0.09%) . $CNC (+1.59%) will announce further details on its Q2 results on July 25.

Centene $CNC (+1.59%) has withdrawn its forecast for 2025 due to rising ACA/Medicaid costs. (The Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as ObamacareACA) accounts for 72% of the business of $CNC (+1.59%) business.

$UNH (+0.09%) has withdrawn from many ACA markets and it now accounts for only a small part of their business.

$CNC (+1.59%) also reported that Medicare Advantage plans are doing better than expected, could be a positive for $UNH (+0.09%) positive as many people now have to self-insure.

$UNH (+0.09%)

19 purchases in 2025, some already in the red

$CVS (-0.84%)
$OSCR
$CI (-0.33%)
$HUM (-2.02%)
$CNC (+1.59%)
$ELV (-0.84%)

$UNH (+0.09%)

Supplementary information/further research:

ESPP programs have a contribution limit of $25,000 per year per employee under IRS 423c. You cannot buy unlimited shares. This buying pressure is negligible for price movements (especially long term).

In addition, the buying power is split between two purchase dates.

The participation rate of $UNH (+0.09%) employees in the ESPP is unlikely to be anywhere near 100% and some employees will often sell their shares on the same day they buy them as there is no holding period.

Here are more insights from Mr. Peter Ottavio on UNH/Optum Rx and Optum Health:

(For those who are interested)

These are just a few of the many reasons why I love working at this company as a partner/physician of OptumHealth/UHG. UNH functions more like three efficient companies in one.

OptumHealth is a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group and focuses on healthcare delivery, population health management and technology-enabled services. With approximately 90,000 physicians and 40,000 healthcare providers, it is the largest provider network in the country. This size provides providers with the resources they need to care for patients efficiently and effectively. Of all the health systems I've worked for, I've never had the resources to care for a sick patient so effectively. In addition, I have never experienced such tremendous growth of a provider network during my three years here.

If a patient comes to me with a cough, I can immediately have x-rays and blood work done in the same building without authorization or delay. The patient then comes back into the hallway to review the images and discuss the next steps in treatment. In the unlikely event that a lung tumor is detected, I can have a CT scan of the chest performed immediately on campus (or off campus if the patient wishes) on the same day and come back the same day to discuss the next steps. If a PET scan is then required, I can have this done as soon as possible. I can honestly say that I have never been refused a CT or PET scan for valid reasons.

OptumRx is the pharmacy benefit management and pharmacy supply arm of UnitedHealth Group and is one of the largest mail-order pharmacies in the country. OptumRx often provides necessary medications affordably and efficiently. The choice is up to the patient, but for long-term therapy, many choose this route.

The sad news about Brian Thompson has hit us hard. While I have heard many good things about him, the role of the insurance arm of the company is not one of my responsibilities.

I have watched countless hours of interviews and presentations by Hemsley and would liken him to Steve Jobs as the true expert on these companies and would definitely welcome him back.

Regarding ESPP.

UnitedHealth Group's Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) allows eligible employees of UnitedHealth Group (UHG), including its subsidiaries such as UnitedHealthcare, to purchase UHG common stock (traded under the symbol UNH) at a discounted price through payroll deductions. Employees who elect to do so will receive six months of regular payroll deductions from January 2 through July 1 and from July 2 through January 1. These payroll deductions are accumulated in an escrow account and purchased on July 1 at a discounted rate at the same time. Our portfolio books the purchase on the following day.

None of this is financial advice, but for those of you who have requested information on the role of UHG companies and their ESPP, this is the well-documented and non-confidential information provided.

$OSCR
$CVS (-0.84%)
$CI (-0.33%)

$UNH (+0.09%)

$UNH (+0.09%) is a full-stack company in the healthcare sector.

It has two main business units: UnitedHealthcare and Optum.

UnitedHealthcare provides health insurance, while Optum provides care services and pharmacy benefits management.

Customers pay premiums to UnitedHealthcare.

When they need care, they primarily use Optum and $UNH (+0.09%) pay Optum for their care.

Optum not only provides the company with operational benefits, but also generates significant external revenue.

Many other insurers and employers also use Optum's care network and benefits administration for pharmacies.

This generates considerable external revenue.

This model has worked incredibly well for $UNH (+0.09%) worked incredibly well so far.

Although the company is the largest health insurer in the world, it has been able to increase its turnover by 11% annually over the last five years.

In the last quarter, the company gained a record 700,000 customers, an amazing achievement.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Annual % Change

2025 - 39.62%

2024 - 2.41%

2023 0.79%

2022 6.94%

2021 45.2%

2020 21.25%

2019 20%

2018 14.52%

2017 39.83%

2016 38.41%

2015 18.27%

2014 36.46%

2013 41.04%

2012 8.6%

2011 42.18%

2010 19.91%

2009 14.75%

2008 -54.26%

2007 8.38%

2006 -13.49%

2005 41.22%

2004 51.38%

2003 39.4%

2002 18.04%

2001 15.37%

2000 131.18%

1999 23.44%

1998 13.29%

1997 10.49%

1996 31.13%

1995 44.97%

1994 19.02%

1993 33.49%

1992 52.75%

1991 220.6%

1990 92.15%

1989 169.46%

1988 24.1%

1987 56.71%

1986 18.29%

1985 164.44%

Also a positive sign:

United Healthcare $UNH (+0.09%) has recently seen considerable insider buying.

On May 16, CEO Hemsley bought 86,700 shares for 25 million dollars.

He was previously CEO of United Healthcare from 2006 to 2017 $UNH (+0.09%) and took office again in May. He now owns 1,112,339 shares worth around 340 million dollars

John Rex, President and CFO of the company, also bought 5 million dollars worth of shares on May 16 to increase his stake, which is now worth around 60 million dollars.

$CNC (+1.59%)
$OSCR
$CVS (-0.84%)
$CI (-0.33%)

I say > 15% up in one year. If you want to bet against it you can also short :) - My 1st and probably last position to diversify my tech-heavy portfolio more.

Who will stand up to the largest insurer in the USA? The moat has been greatly expanded over the years (several insurance (sub)categories, long-term care, Medicare program for low-income earners, telemedicine, pharmacies), making them very vertically integrated in the insurance and healthcare market.

Sales and margin pressure? Yes, of course! But by 60%? Think no!

As far as lawsuits are concerned, we still have to speak of a "presumed" lawsuit, if you believe UH. They report that no lawsuit has been filed. In a negative scenario, as is almost always the case in US history, a settlement will be reached. A few hundred million/1 billion and that's it. There is 34 billion in the coffers.

I see little to no risk in the insurance business.

The pharmacy subsidiary OptumRX is more critical. They negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies about the prices at which they buy medicines and pass them on to their policyholders + surcharge. And there could be problems here if 🍊they enforce what they say. BUT: OptumRX only accounts for approx. 13% of sales (share price plummets 60% 🤷‍♀️). As far as I know, this segment is one of the highest-margin areas at UN. Instead of good margins, these may be trimmed (to a solid level?). But the risk then also affects $CVS (-0.84%) and $CI (-0.33%) as well.

I think the potential impact is overestimated.

If there are people who live in the USA, I would appreciate your assessment!

By the way, for those who got in early: stop thinking from day to day!

Broadcom investment worthwhile?

Investors who backed Broadcom 10 years ago $AVGO (-1.32%)-shares 10 years ago can look forward to a breathtaking increase in value. At that time, the share was traded on the NASDAQ for just USD 11.95. If someone had bravely invested USD 1,000, they would be the proud owner of 83,682 Broadcom shares today. The current closing price is USD 176.91, which means that the former investment is now worth an incredible USD 14,804.18. This corresponds to an astonishing increase of 1,380.42 percent! Furthermore, Broadcom's current market capitalization is an impressive USD 831.53 billion. However, it is important to emphasize that this calculation does not take into account stock splits and dividend payments. So anyone who bet on Broadcom has not only benefited from the share price, but also from the dividends that the company has paid out in recent years.

The Cigna Group Registered dividend payment

In the USA, the shareholders of The Cigna Group Registered $CI (-0.33%) can look forward to good news: at the Annual General Meeting on April 23, 2025, a dividend of USD 5.60 per share was approved for 2024. This distribution represents a considerable increase of 13.82% compared to the previous year and adds up to an impressive USD 1.57 billion that will flow to shareholders. It is also interesting to note that the total distribution has risen by 8.07%. On the day of the Annual General Meeting, the share was quoted at USD 336.69, which represents a dividend yield of 2.03%. In the previous year, this yield was 1.64%, meaning that shareholders have seen a positive development in their return despite a 4.43% fall in the share price over the last twelve months. Analysts are confident and expect a further increase in the dividend to USD 7.23 in 2025. This would increase the dividend yield to 2.15%. Currently, the market capitalization of The Cigna Group Registered is USD 91.352 billion and the company has an impressive turnover of USD 244.384 billion, with earnings per share of USD 12.25.

Sources:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/s-p-500-wert-broadcom-aktie-so-viel-haetten-anleger-an-einem-broadcom-investment-von-vor-10-jahren-verdient-14417609

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/s-p-500-papier-the-cigna-group-registered-aktie-ueber-diese-dividendenzahlung-koennen-sich-the-cigna-group-registered-anleger-freuen-14417762

+++ News: Heated mood around US health insurers +++

The shares of well-known insurance companies such as $UNH (+0.09%) but also those of competitors $ELV (-0.84%)
$HUM (-2.02%) and $CI (-0.33%) have fallen surprisingly this week. Although the losses are limited, the reasons for this are more than just shocking.

As I reported earlier, the CEO of United Healthcare's insurance division was the victim of a targeted assassination. While the police are now investigating at full speed, the perpetrator is currently the target of downright hero worship on social media. The assassin is repeatedly equated with characters from pop culture such as Batman, Robin Hood or John Wick.

Insults against the victim and his family are also liked and shared thousands of times. It is not just the viciousness of the comments that is frightening - but the fact that, as is so often the case in such instances, the platforms simply let them stand.

Insurers' shares are currently falling because there are fears that there could be further murders of insurance employees. The management of the major insurance companies is alarmed and has hastily removed photos and other personal data of their "C-level executives" from their websites.

Commentary and classification: After the failed assassination attempt on Trump, I'm hardly surprised at the kind of people we're dealing with here. The same people who talk about democracy and human rights in every other sentence are the same people who are now calling for the assassination of their ideological opponents once again. Even a good ESG score doesn't help United Health against so much hatred.

From a purely shareholder perspective, this charged sentiment towards the banking and insurance sector is $JPM (-0.99%) is of course a systemic risk when investing. However, these are not necessarily particularly controversial sectors. Retailers $WMT (-0.84%) pharmaceuticals $PFE (-0.32%)
$CVS (-0.84%) consumer goods manufacturers $KVUE (-1.62%)
$BATS (-0.36%) defense companies $LMT (+0.2%) etc. could soon find themselves in the crosshairs.

If you really want to be absolutely sure of being invested in a politically correct way, simply put your money in Northvolt and make a 90% loss. This also ensures that you can "eat the rich" can no longer be meant.

$UNH (+0.09%) - United Health

After the numbers were very solid and the other health insurers/sector didn't really react strongly.

Which other health insurers could also react strongly after the numbers and surprise positively?

Which one is your favorite and why ?

$CVS (-0.84%) - CVS Health

$HUM (-0.57%) - Humana

$ELV (-0.84%) - Elevance Health

$HCA (-0.27%) - HCA Healthcare

$CI (-0.33%) - Cigna

$CNC (+1.59%) - Centene

Or do you have other favorites or companies from the sector on your watchlist?