5D·

Centene withdraws forecast for 2025 after market shock

$CNC (-1.73%)
$CI (+0.06%)
$OSCR
$UNH (+0.1%)
$HUM (-0.38%)
$CVS (+0.4%)

$CNC (-1.73%) Centene has withdrawn its earnings guidance for 2025 after new data showed significantly higher morbidity and lower than expected growth in the Marketplace business. This resulted in a decline in net revenue from risk adjustment of approximately $1.8 billion and a decline in earnings of approximately $2.75 per share. Medicaid costs are also rising, particularly in the areas of mental health, home care and expensive drugs in states such as New York and Florida. $CNC (-1.73%) plans a price correction for 2026 and will provide more information in its Q2 results on July 25.

Oscar Health $OSCR is also down due to its high presence in this area, as are other insurance stocks such as $HUM (-0.38%) , $CI (+0.06%) and $UNH (+0.1%) . $CNC (-1.73%) will announce further details on its Q2 results on July 25.

Centene $CNC (-1.73%) has withdrawn its forecast for 2025 due to rising ACA/Medicaid costs. (The Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as ObamacareACA) accounts for 72% of the business of $CNC (-1.73%) business.

$UNH (+0.1%) has withdrawn from many ACA markets and it now accounts for only a small part of their business.

$CNC (-1.73%) also reported that Medicare Advantage plans are doing better than expected, could be a positive for $UNH (+0.1%) positive as many people now have to self-insure.

BamBamInvest

@BamBamInvest

1Wk·

Percentage of income from Medicare:

Molina $US60855R1005 (+0.37%) - 80 %

Centene $CNC (-1.73%) - 52 %

Elevance $ELV (+0.15%) - 25 %

UnitedHealth $UNH (+0.1%) - 11 %

CVS Health (Aetna) $CVS (+0.4%) - 6 %

Companies that in my opinion have upside potential on positive news.

Healthcare sector in general with a lot of catch-up potential, can in my opinion be well overplayed. $XDWH (+0.12%) play.

Do you have any sectors that you play via ETFs and if so, which ones?

I would be interested, I will probably now also set up a savings plan on $DAPP (+2.7%) and make a first purchase.

Expansion of the money supply
Possible fall in interest rates
Debt of the USA (repayment 1/3 this year)
and much more

In my opinion, this should $BTC (-0.11%) and a large part of the associated companies.

(Even if we are already somewhat further advanced)

Looking forward to your opinions and sector ETF's, even if they are only short term positions.

Normally I only go for individual stocks, but as I hardly want to hold cash, I feel very comfortable in the healthcare sector at the moment. ✌️

11 Comments

Chris@Multibagger

I play the blockchain, gold and defense sectors via ETF savings plans.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Multibagger Have now also started with $DAPP, savings plan and small one-off payment 👍

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Multibagger Do you buy the $OSCR dip when it arrives in the afternoon?

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Chris@Multibagger

@BamBamInvest Let's see how big it gets. I have to say that I'm still not quite sure how big the impact of what you wrote this morning on $OSCR will be.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Multibagger This is really difficult to weigh up, at $UNH it is at least only 11% of sales and could now also lead to an influx of private contracts. Difficult to assess.

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Soprano@Soprano

Washington is called Apple Care? Wtf? :D I think Medi-Cal is good too. Arkansas kind of pooped in it.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Soprano so it seems according to this list 🤣

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Memo0606@Memo0606

$CNC is cheap

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Memo0606 but probably not unjustified, you have to see what effect this has.

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Memo0606@Memo0606

@BamBamInvest Is it too cheap now? 🥸

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

@Memo0606 I can't estimate the impact because I can't calculate it. But a trade will probably be worthwhile at some point if we reach the oversold or oversold zone.

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