2D·

Further increased

$UNH (-0.13%) has not experienced two consecutive years of negative returns since 1987.

Who is still invested here, who is buying, what are your assessments? 🤔

In my opinion, a lot of negative things are already priced in here.

There is no evidence for the accusations
Every accusation is contradicted and more openness is also suggested
They are regularly reviewed and nothing negative has been found
Bad "old" news is constantly being rehashed which has already been dismissed as unfounded and unproven
CEO and other insiders have set an example by buying it
$UNH (-0.13%) is one of the largest employers in the US and also system relevant
Medicare/Medicaid accounts for only 15% of revenue
Outlook/expectations have already been reduced
Historically high dividend yield of just under 3%
Possible penalties already priced in in my opinion

yes, of course there is still downside potential, but the risk/reward ratio is already very attractive

The entire sector has similar ways of working and a decline/reduction in Medicare could $UNH (-0.13%) as the top dog in the private sector could even play into its hands.

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UnitedHealth Group $UNH (-0.13%) has traded at the largest deviation from the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio since its IPO ...

This stock has literally NEVER been this cheap relative to the S&P 500.

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Incredibly exciting to follow the story.

$CNC (+0.18%)
$CVS (-0.28%)
$OSCR
$HUM (-12.19%)
$CI (-0.14%)
$ELV (-0.17%)
$XDWH (-0.11%)

15.07

Bought x11 at €251.45

€2,765.95

27

43 Comments

2D

I'll wait for the figures on the 29th and then I'll decide whether to continue with UNH or not.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

2D

@Doe certainly the more sensible decision ☺️, but I think the management and former CEO want to avoid collapse and will lead the ship back to safe harbor. So many negative things have already been priced in that I think there will be a cry for relief, especially as the share price is unlikely to rise extremely until then. People want prospects and to know how the costs will be reflected; the guidance has already been suspended. I see more of a 20% downside/100% upside potential here over the next 1-2 years. If things develop positively, I could even see this happening by the end of the year. Healthcare sector generally bombed out, more clarity in the sector will lead to rotation. In general, a weak market would make the healthcare sector perform better at this level. At least that's my opinion, even if it may take some time.
But of course I understand you, the safe option is to wait for earnings, but then the share price could be 6% higher right away. I don't think we will lose that much more before the earnings, as they are practically just around the corner.

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

1D

I have been invested with 3 shares since the setback. Still down around 7% due to the dollar. A long position for me. Even if it falls, I believe it will do better again in the next 3 years. One of the best stocks for a rebound in the long term. The sector is having a very difficult time in the current environment.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@HappyJulienDay everything is correct, in retrospect you will wish you had bought more at some point ✌️

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

21H

@Doe $ELV meanwhile turned from -7% into plus

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21H

@BamBamInvest If UNH has been lucky, it will remain in the depot for the time being 😆

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

21H

@Doe Yes, it seems that many were expecting this anyway and that the sector was already under pressure. Moreover, the valuation is comparatively low. And they didn't suspend guidance, which would have been disastrous, so I assume that $UNH will also issue guidance. Their stake in Medicaid and ACA is lower and they are more diversified with Optum x etc. I think we are getting into earnings.

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1D

I also find it interesting that there is no evidence (yet?). But it is very surprising why UNH generates so much more than the competition. If everything is indeed legitimate, in my view this would rather mean that the entire insurance market except for UNH is not efficient and therefore undervalued.

I just can't imagine that, but well, you're in the ETF anyway, so I'm in either way.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Variett But this has been the case for a long time and the pharmacy business is high-margin and it is also clear that there are bonus programs here and how expensive medicines are in the USA. Given the size of the company, which is regularly inspected over this long period of time, there should have been evidence much earlier. Take a look at the number of employees, something would have leaked out long ago if they were doing something that is not common practice. In every industry you want to earn money, there are bonus programs and kickbacks. Even if something happens here, it will be settled with a billion-euro fine. Financially, $UNH is in a good position. At least that's my opinion, real price gains only arise from a good risk/reward ratio or if a company is misjudged or misunderstood by the market, which in my opinion is the case here ✌️

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DaMerkl@DaMerkl

1D

I didn't want to believe the reports about Wirecard at first either. I couldn't imagine that a DAX-listed company here in Germany would make up figures. I can also imagine at UNH that perhaps a small part of the allegations could be true. Who knows

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@DaMerkl for sure, but that's how it works in the whole industry and you can compare wirecard in the smallest form with $UNH. Apart from that, they are already regularly checked and there has never been any evidence ✌️dürfte so it will be difficult for the authorities. But even that is already partly priced in.

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Super_Geroy@Super_Geroy

1D

@DaMerkl If that is true, we will join the shareholder lawsuits. Because I wouldn't have bought the shares if I had known that rules were being broken.

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

1D

I have my long call with a term until March. Currently -30%, primarily consists of time value and has little more to lose.

I am waiting/hoping for a sharp recovery. I strongly assume that a lot can be clarified within 9 months.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@GeldGenie I agree. Better faster perhaps with a warning or fine and the matter is settled. But if they don't find anything, it could drag on.

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1D

The share price plummeted in one fell swoop after another
Since the beginning of the year, a chain of negative events has caused the share price to plummet by 41%: High Medicare spending and skyrocketing costs for GLP-1 drugs led to a profit warning in April and the surprise CEO change from Andrew Witty to Stephen Hemsley in May. Added to this is Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", which provides for one trillion dollars in cuts to Medicaid and "Obamacare" from 2026. As a result, the industry will lose up to 12 million policyholders, which will have a negative impact on premium volume (currently around 15% of Group revenue). In the short term, the new management can tackle many operational problems, but structurally, demographic pressure, expensive specialty therapies and political intervention are hampering profit growth.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Smudeo I know, but Mecicaid is only 15% of United Health's turnover and therefore also leads to a possible increase/shift in private insurance. Apart from that, it would not be completely canceled. I am relatively relaxed about this and have already priced in a lot of negative news. ✌️Diese news are all already known and included in the share price. Everyone has to decide for themselves, but I like the risk/reward ratio here very much.

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1D

@BamBamInvest United Health and Elevance
The next important milestone is the Q2 figures on July 29, for which another profit slump is expected. The old and new CEO Hemsley, who already led the company from 2006 to 2017, must now achieve his confirmed medium-term target of profit growth of 13 to 16% per year despite regulatory and cost-related headwinds. The extremely successful technology and data subsidiary Optum will help with this. However, just like its most comparable competitor Elevance, UnitedHealth will have to find an answer to the question of how higher costs due to more expensive treatments (keyword: gene therapy and GLP-1 drugs) can be absorbed with simultaneous cutbacks in the healthcare sector.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Smudeo I'm aware of all that, you're copying articles and reports into here now 😁. I've read everything, take a look at the price drop, it's all already clear, forecasts have been suspended and headwinds are to be expected. It's also clear that the sector is under pressure, what exactly are you trying to tell me? We will see the effects this year and how this will be reflected in the results. We will find out more on 29.07. ☺️

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1D

@BamBamInvest I just want to say that this is not an investment - there are better stocks - sectors - unfortunately many have already fallen for it here in recent months
The valuation premium that investors have so far accorded UnitedHealth compared with the rest of the sector could prove to be an additional burden in this environment. Elevance, also a traditional health insurer with national reach and recently also active in the digitalization business with a subsidiary (Carelon), has only lost a good 6% in value since the beginning of the year, but is valued significantly lower and, like UnitedHealth, currently at a discount to the 12-month forward P/E ratio (currently: 9; average: 14). However, the entire sector is burdened by the higher short-term risks and an investment in any of the competitors is currently not recommended.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Smudeo This may be true and correct in the short term, but it could also offer a good entry point. We will see, today $ELV figures are coming out, which will certainly rub off, let's see what the management says about the prospects and costs. $ELV also has about 25% of Medicare, which is almost twice as high as $UNH. You always have to put this into perspective. For <security:n/a:US60855R1005> just under 80% and $CNC over 50% share, this certainly causes more pain and headwinds.

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1D

@BamBamInvest @Smudeo Elevance Health's figures are coming out today, I think it might look the same for UNH... I'm curious

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Doe It will be particularly interesting to see how $UNH reacts. Weak prospects of a further sell-off or no reaction. Psychologically, I believe there will be further uncertainty among investors. Let's see, but they have almost twice as much of a 25% stake in Medicaid as $UNH. Do you know when the numbers are coming, have you looked ?

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1D

@BamBamInvest Q2 2025 Earnings this Morning

17. Juli 2025, 06:00

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Doe does that mean 12:00 noon for us? They report that early ? 😂

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

22H

@Doe $ELV narrow miss, could have been worse.

EPS. vs forecast ❌
8.84 / 9.07

Rev. vs Forecast ✅
49.4B / 48.14B

Outlook will be exciting, let's see if there is already something to it

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View one more answer

1D

I have 8 shares. I'm thinking about selling part of it because there will probably be much more interesting companies within 1-2 years. The only thing holding me back is, as you say, that no one has put anything tangible on the table to confirm the accusations... If this is the case, it will go down another 20-30%...

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@pyrler I believe that possible penalties are already partly priced in here. Of course there are more interesting companies, but it also depends on what your strategy is. But I find the combination of bad news and a weak healthcare sector very interesting. If the knot breaks here and there is a trend reversal (earnings), things can go up very quickly. The investigations could go on for a long time and for me it feels like looking for a needle in a haystack. One must also not forget that the new (old) CEO assumes liability if he consciously accepts these business practices, knows about them and nevertheless continues to run the company. He knows what is being done in the industry and what is not, and I think that is simply too little to really find something usable. Then they would have to pillory the whole sector and the system and that won't happen because it's systemically relevant and too many jobs depend on it. The sickness system works differently than in Europe and is much more profitable.
If I want there to be a fine and something to show that everyone is happy, then that's the end of the matter and it will continue. There will always be dissatisfied or vindictive employees or customers, that's quite normal, especially with a company of this size. It's quite normal that things don't always run as smoothly as you'd like, and in terms of margins, it's much easier to use synergy effects and scale up.

I'm sleeping very well with my position at the moment, I have to say, because I always find it very annoying that people are trying to rehash old news. Someone or something is wrong here, and others want to benefit from it too. But of course anything can happen and it can also take 1-2 years. But look at the market, many things are highly valued, while value/health/consumption is rather cheap in some cases.

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Erdbeermaus@Lumimyrsky

22H

would still wait is already breaking away downwards again

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

22H

@Lumimyrsky is actually holding up quite well, also in view of the figures from $ELV. I think that quite a lot is already priced in here, but of course it can always go one level lower.

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21H

Well, I'm buying in slowly because I think the selloff has gone too far. But I can assure you that there are evidences of fraud. They are collecting everything since more than 1 year. The only question is if they will be able to stick those allegations to UNH or everything will be labeled as doctor's and nurses fault.

What is clear to me is that UNH took a very smart idea, the Optum IA for diagnosis and used it to extract all they could from the government.

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Singulus@Singulus

21H

I also went in with 4 pieces, thanks for the motivation 🌞.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

21H

@Singulus then let's hope it doesn't go wrong 😂

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Singulus@Singulus

21H

@BamBamInvest A bit of courage is good and if things go wrong, the exemption order will become a bit free again ^^.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

21H

@Singulus Good attitude 👌

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Walter S.@Roots

20H

I'll just keep the savings plan running...
And increase it within the next 4 weeks if necessary...

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

20H

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Soprano@Soprano

18H

Purchased today 👍🏼

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1D

They are currently under investigation, how do you explain the margins that are obviously much higher than those of the entire industry?

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Derspekulant1 Bonus programs, synergy effects, scaling, benefit managers, kick-backs, broader positioning, etc.

You are the top dog, have good agreements and conditions.

It is also normal for others to try to pick up business on the basis of margins. The medication business is quite high-margin. (Of course there will now probably be headwinds and pressure on margins)

As in any other industry, there are attempts to make profits, in most industries there are kick backs, there is always a certain gray area.

With such a huge apparatus and employer, something like this would have come to light much earlier if there was serious evidence, all accusations and investigations have come to nothing, old news is being reheated. It is normal that not everyone is satisfied with such a volume and that there are dissatisfied employees (with 400,000 employees) and customers.

Maybe they should pay a fine and then it's off the table, at least that's my assessment.

I don't think the healthcare system will be overturned, apart from that their Medicaid revenue share is ~ 15%, what do you think will happen with <security:n/a:US60855R1005> - 85% and $CNC ~ 50% and where the customers will then go.

Health dependency/health status and premium portfolio/security, I would probably go to the top dog $UNH. (That's my theory)

At many large companies, some employees get a $UNH contract through cooperations or long-standing $UNH, I don't think this will change so quickly in uncertain times.

There are also health issues, so it's not like you can just change jobs on a whim.

At least that's my opinion, we'll see what happens.

If investing in this area, then rather in the company that has a low Medicaid/Medicare share and is even more attractive after the fall in the share price.

Good risk/reward ratio for me

I may be wrong (on some points), but I like the share price here and you can't compare a private healthcare system, which is more profitable, with a system in Germany or Austria. ✌️

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1D

@BamBamInvest So far, however, no one can explain the high margins, no one who has access to the figures and no analyst either. Which is why this is the subject of the investigation. Would be nothing for me 😅

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1D

@Derspekulant1 This brings opportunities as well as risks 😁 and seriously, the question of margins is only arising now? What about the last 5-10 years, did nobody care? The competition shouldn't have minded either, so if there was something to be found here or something to be found, it would probably be with any of the providers. Excess returns are achieved through false understanding and fear, the psychology of the stock market. Moral sermons would then probably have to be applied in many areas. It remains exciting. I would probably have to accept a crash in the event of potentially poor $ELV figures and prospects today. But here, too, it is important to remember that you have to look at the details and the revenue shares. $UNH has a broader diversification with Optum and Optum Rx. We will see .

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

22H

@BamBamInvest Sure, it's funny that no one noticed before, but the whole thing came about through a whistleblower where the high margins come from, until then it had probably been celebrated rather than perhaps taking a closer look 😅 I mean they are cheap, the only question is whether they will become expensive again.

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