Posts
50Good evening everyone,
Here are my favorites for the health sector.
Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-1.65%)
Stryker $SYK (+0.68%)
Intuitive Surgical (P/E ratio 70, P/B ratio 19 🤑) $ISRG (+0.63%)
Astra Zeneca $AZN (-0.47%)
Zoetis $ZTS (+0.05%)
Idexx Lab. $IDXX (-1.19%)
Amgen (profit margin declining) $AMGN (+0.26%)
I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?
I would like to use the current "black time" to structure my portfolio better and diversify it more. So far, I have overweighted some sectors rather arbitrarily, while others are completely absent. 😅
In order to achieve a more sound, sectoral diversification, I have looked at two things:
1. the long-term performance of the sectors in the S&P 500
2. the maximum drawdowns of these sectors over different time periods
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The following table shows the average annual returns of the S&P 500 sectors over 10, 20, 30 and 40 years.
It is striking: Some sectors have performed significantly better than others over longer periods of time. Particularly noteworthy are
- Information technology
- Healthcare
- Consumer staples (cyclical consumption)
These sectors achieved long-term average annual returns of over 10% p.a.
By contrast, the following sectors performed less convincingly:
- Energy
- Materials (basic materials)
- Real estate
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Unfortunately, historical drawdown data by sector is limited and not uniformly available. Nevertheless, a clear trend can be identified: The available data shows that defensive sectors tend to have lower drawdowns, while cyclical sectors are more prone to larger declines. So it looks like sectors such as consumer discretionary and healthcare tend to have lower maximum drawdowns, while sectors such as financials and energy have had the sharpest declines.
In the next step, I looked at the current (2024) market weighting of the sectors in the S&P 500, i.e. a market capitalization-weighted allocation as a passive ETF would reflect it:
Information Technology 28%
Healthcare 13 %
Financial services 12 %
Consumer Discretionary 10%
Communication services 8 %
Industry 8 %
Consumer staples 6 %
Energy 4 %
Utilities 3 %
Materials 2.5 %
Real estate 2.5 %
This is the first time I realize how much you have to overweight or underweight a sector in order to have the greatest probability of hypothetically beating the market in a fictitious, ideal scenario by means of sectoral overweighting and underweighting.
For example, only a weighting of well over 28% in information technology would have led to a possible outperformance.
Conversely, only a complete abandonment of the real estate sector could have made a positive contribution. (in retrospect)
Of course, this is a gross oversimplification, as each sector consists of a large number of companies of very different quality. Nevertheless, valuable insights for the strategic portfolio orientation can be derived from this.
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But now I'm at a crossroads.
Option A
I analyze current valuation ratios such as P/E ratios, Shiller P/E ratios or earnings growth per sector and decide on this basis which sectors appear most attractive for the future, i.e. an active, forward-looking approach.
Option B (my favorite):
I take my cue from long-term, historical average returns and risks and use them as a guide for strategic allocation - in other words, a more rule-based approach with a rational derivation.
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My sectoral target portfolio, based on risk-return profile and personal preference, could look like this:
Let's start from the back, the weakest sectors such as energy, real estate, utilities and basic materials have proven to be underperforming and often volatile over the long term. In total, I would therefore like to limit these to a maximum of 10% of my portfolio.
Industry 8 %
Financial services with 9 %
Communication services 10 %
Consumer staples with 13 %,
Healthcare 15 %
Consumer staples 15%
Information technology 20 %
The above weighting aims to create a portfolio that is both growth-oriented and risk-optimized in the long term.
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Conclusion 🤓
With this train of thought, I am pursuing a systematic and long-term approach that takes both opportunities and risks into account. The aim is to create a portfolio that remains stable and profitable in different market phases. Of course, it will not always be easy to implement these weightings perfectly in practice, but this strategy provides a clear direction as a basis.
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Sources 🤯
JP Morgan Asset Management - Guide to the Markets
www.vanguard.com Principles for Investing Success
2025 - A year to forget if you look at the first quarter. While things were still looking positive until around mid-February, things have been going steadily downhill since the middle or end of February.
March 2025 was the worst single month in my portfolio since 2013, with price losses of almost 10%. The negative market trend in the US and a weak US dollar naturally hurt my portfolio particularly badly.
Monthly view:
In total, March was -9,9%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 30.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was -7.9% and the S&P500 -5.8% (in dollars, for euro investors it was also more like -10%).
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers shows a clear picture in March:
Winners? You will look for them almost in vain this month.
In 1st and 2nd place are Deutsche Bank
$DBK (+1.49%) and Allianz $ALV (+0.78%) two German financial stocks with gains of around € +180 each. Northrop Grumman $NOC (+0.33%) at +120€ is only one of 2 American stocks with a positive price performance in March.
A completely different picture on the losers' side:
1st place goes to NVIDIA $NVDA (+3.02%) with price losses of over €4,200. It is followed by Meta $META (-0.34%) and Palo Alto Networks
$PANW (+1%) with price losses of ~€2,000 each. 4th place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (-2.12%) with €1,600 in share price losses. The flop 5 is then completed by a non-tech stock, namely Starbucks
$SBUX (-0.56%) with losses of ~€1,400.
The performance-neutral movements were €500 in March - these are still lower at the moment due to the house construction issue.
current year:
In the YTD my portfolio is now also clearly in the red with -8,4%. The MSCI World is still doing better at -5.4%.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~260.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€25,000 in the current year 2025. -28.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~900€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buying & selling:
Change of strategy?
At the moment, Donald Trump and his policies are causing a lot of scrutiny, especially with regard to the (high) US share in the portfolio.
I can understand these thoughts very well. However, I have decided not to change my strategy and to maintain my high US & tech allocation in my portfolio.
There are certainly better short-term investment opportunities (European defense stocks as an example). Through my savings plans, however, I have deliberately opted for a long-term buying strategy that I will not throw overboard every few months. In the long term, for example, 2022 was an extremely good year to buy tech stocks.
As I don't have a portfolio target for this year anyway, I'm happy to go even lower - hopefully I'll be happy about the entry prices in 2-3 years' time.
YouTube:
Unfortunately, I only uploaded 2 videos to YouTube in March. Unfortunately, work in March was extremely stressful and time-consuming, so there was little time left for this.
I have also uploaded my March portfolio update as a video there if anyone would like to see some more information on the portfolio performance: https://youtu.be/fxbvatj6uvM?si=xP_gvoEmtuqSsfz8
I'm particularly happy to receive criticism or feedback here! 😊
Goal 2025
As already mentioned in the January & February review, a fixed deposit target for this year makes little sense due to the house construction. A fixed savings rate is also difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).
A dividend target is also very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.
That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two YouTube successes.
How are things looking for you? Are you sticking to your portfolio target for 2025 or do you also see difficulties in achieving it after the first quarter?
2025 - A stock market year that has so far been more reminiscent of rough seas. It goes uphill and the next moment it goes abruptly downhill again.
The January began with a lot of Trump euphoria on the markets, before this was halted by DeepSeek in the second half of January.
The February recovered relatively quickly from this shock before falling again in the second half of the month. The Trump euphoria has turned into a Trump shock for the time being.
Nevertheless, I will continue to hold a 75-80% USA quota with a high proportion of tea.
I can get over the fact that after 2 years of outperformance against my benchmarks, there may be an underperformance this year.
Monthly view:
In total, February was -3,2%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 10.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was down -2.5% and the S&P500 -1.4%.
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers nevertheless reveals a surprising picture for the top performer in February.
But first a look at the losersThe biggest loser by far is Alphabet $GOOG (-2.12%) With losses of almost €3,000, the share price took a heavy hit in February. This is followed by a total of almost €5,000 in price losses Bitcoin
$BTC (+1.93%) & Ethereum
$ETH (+2.37%) . 4th & 5th place goes to Salesforce
$CRM (+1.03%) and TSMC $TSM (+0.35%) two more tech stocks
On the winning side are actually at the top, much to my own surprise NVIDIA
$NVDA (+3.02%) with a price gain of almost €1,000. And this despite the fact that NVIDIA lost over 10% on the penultimate trading day in February. Nevertheless, the recovery after the DeepSeek shock in February was greater than expected.
The top 5 includes Amgen
$AMGN (+0.26%) and Johnson & Johnson
$JNJ (-0.45%) two stocks from the healthcare sector, a rather defensive sector. These are joined by MercadoLibre $MELI (-0.01%) and Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+1%) but also two tech stocks.
The performance-neutral movements were positive again in February at € 900, after January was clearly negative due to a property purchase.
current year:
In the YTD my portfolio is still just in the plus with +0,6%. However, the MSCI World is up +1.9% and I am currently underperforming my benchmark.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~288.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€3,000 in the current year 2025. ~1.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~500€ from dividends / interest and ~1.500€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buys & sells:
YouTube:
I uploaded a few new videos to YouTube in February and I'm starting to feel less stupid talking into a microphone.
I've also uploaded my portfolio update there as a video if anyone would like to see some more information about the portfolio performance in February:
Here I act according to the motto: Let's see what happens - What will happen!
Goal 2025
Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.
A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added
A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year and the markets are very volatile.
The current portfolio balance is ~€290,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. This would bring me to just over €300,000. I originally assumed a market return of 7% for this year. However, after the first two months it is difficult for me to estimate how this year will go.
That's why I'm being honest: A target doesn't make sense for me this year.
The goal is to build a successful house and for the portfolio we'll just see what happens.
- Revenue: $9.1B, +11% YoY
- Net income: $627M, -18% YoY
- Non-GAAP EPS: $5.31, +13% YoY
- Full year revenue: $33.4B, +19% YoY
CEO Robert A. Bradway: "Robust growth in sales and earnings throughout 2024 reflects the momentum of our business. With strong performance globally, we are investing heavily in our rapidly advancing pipeline to deliver innovative therapies across our four therapeutic areas."
🌱Revenue & Growth
- Product sales grew 11%, driven by 14% volume growth
- Ten products delivered double-digit sales growth in Q4
- Repatha sales: $606M, +45% YoY
- TEZSPIRE sales: $296M, +67% YoY
- Rare disease products: $1.2B in Q4
💰Profits & Financials
- Operating margin: 26.5% vs 16.2% in Q4 2023
- Free cash flow: $4.4B vs $0.3B in Q4 2023
- Cash and investments: $12.0B
- Total debt: $60.1B
- Debt leverage ratio: 4.5x EBITDA
📌Business Highlights
- Generated record $10.4B free cash flow for full year 2024
- Q4 dividend increased 6% YoY to $2.25 per share
- Repurchased 0.7M shares for $200M in Q4
🔮Future Outlook
- FY2025 revenue guidance: $34.3B-$35.7B
- Non-GAAP EPS guidance: $20.00-$21.20
- Capital expenditures expected around $2.3B
- Share repurchases not to exceed $500M
Part 5 of 5
/ Review of the year 2024: In the first 4 parts
of my investment story, I looked at the years 2013 to 2023.
A mixture of highs and lows. While there was a lot of learning at the beginning, the last few years are finally bearing fruit!
Monthly view:
2024 was another very positive year, although December again resulted in a slight loss in the portfolio.
In total, December was -0,8%. This corresponds to price losses of -3.200€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was -0.9% and the S&P500 -2.5%.
In the following, however, I would like to look primarily at the whole of 2024 and not
just December.
Year as a whole:
Winners & losers:
The winner par excellence is hardly surprising NVIDIA $NVDA (+3.02%) with
almost €20,000 in share price gains! And this despite the fact that I took my entire stake of ~€4,000 off the table in March.
In 2nd place follows Bitcoin
$BTC (+1.93%) with approx. 6,000€ price gains. 3rd-5th place
are shared by TSMC $TSM (+0.35%)
Alphabet $GOOG (-2.12%) and Meta
$META (-0.34%) with gains of ~€5,000 each.
On the loser side it looks very relaxed all in all.
Sartorius $SRT (-0.27%)
Nike $NKE (-0.92%)
and Bechtle $BC8 (+1.09%) have each caused share price losses of ~€1,000. They are followed by LVMH $MC (-0.49%) with share price losses of €500 and Amgen $AMGN (+0.26%) with €200.
All in all, share price losses that are not really worth mentioning.
The performance-neutral movements in 2024 were just under €20,000. This is a significant decline compared to the almost €30,000 from previous years. This was due to some private issues and the upcoming house construction.
My performance for the year as a whole was +28,8% and therefore outperformed my benchmark, the MSCI World, by 25.8%.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~347.000€. This
corresponds to an absolute growth of ~95,000€ in the current
year 2023. ~71.000€ of which comes from price gains, ~3.800€ from
dividends / interest and ~20.000€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buys & sells:
- I bought in December for a significantly reduced ~500€
- As always, my savings plans were executed:
- Blue chips: Lockheed Martin $LMT (+1.94%) Republic Services $RSG (+0.26%) Thermo Fisher $TMO (-0.14%) ASML $ASML (+0.06%) Northrop Grumman $NOC (+0.33%) Itochu $8001 (-0.65%) Constellation Software $CSU (-1.21%) Hermes $RMS Salesforce $CRM (+1.03%) MasterCard $MA (-0.47%) Deere $DE (-0.66%)
- Growth: -
- ETFs: MSCI World $XDWD (+0.11%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (-0.37%)
- Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (+1.93%) and Ethereum $ETH (+2.37%)
- There were no further sales in December
Target 2024 & outlook 2025:
My goal for 2024 was to reach €300,000 in the portfolio. Due to the
extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio stands at ~€ 350,000 at the end of the year. I was therefore able to significantly exceed my target.
What will happen in 2025? The logical target, of course, would be 400.000€ to be achieved. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change.
However, as I am more likely to be tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably
probably refrain from doing so.
Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.
How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?
Finally, I wanted to say thank you again for all the positive reactions to my investment story!
https://linktr.ee/mister.ultra
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Podcast episode 68 "Buy High. Sell Low."
Subscribe to the podcast so that print dies.
00:00:00 Alphabet, Uber & Lyft
00:26:00 Novo Nordisk, Eli LIlly & Amgen
00:54:00 Quantum Computing & Quantum Corporation
01:02:15 Bitcoin & MicroStrategy
01:17:40 German Bitcoin experts
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/40XOPNBIC2zBjVtmVDSzMH?si=jj_ZclnGQfSfpRCUZEB2QQ
YouTube
Apple Podcast
$GOOGL (-2.2%)
$GOOG (-2.12%)
$MSTR (+5.33%)
$BTC (+1.93%)
$UBER (+0.83%)
$LYFT (+1.96%)
$NOVO B (-1.65%)
$NOVO B
$NVO (-1.09%)
$AMGN (+0.26%)$LLY (+1%)
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$SPOT (-0.38%)
#podcast
Depot review November 2024 - The depot is growing despite larger withdrawals 🚀
Before I continue with the second part of my investment story, I would first like to share my portfolio review for November.
The second half of November was almost quiet compared to what happened at the beginning of November. Trump was elected, triggering a veritable run on the stock markets. Germany was finally freed from the traffic lights and there were also some exciting topics in the private sphere. I sold a few shares back in October to generate the equity I needed to start building a house. This continued a little further in November.
Overall, my savings rate will also (have to) be lower over the next few months. Less into the portfolio and more into the "buffer account" for building the house. Nevertheless, around €500 per month will continue to be invested and this will be pushed up again as quickly as possible.
After selling 6 shares and an ETF in October, I sold parts of my MSCI World ETF for around €13,000.
But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:
Monthly view:
In total, November was +6,3%. This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was +7.3% and the S&P500 +5.1%
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month:
On the winning side with a total of almost €5,000 in price gains, my crypto investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is followed by the long runner NVIDIA with price gains of just under €2,000. 4th and 5th place then goes to the cybersecurity sector with Palo Alto Networks and Crowdstrike.
On the loser side looks very quiet this month. Amgen is still the worst performer with losses of ~€600 due to a weight loss drug that failed to fully meet Wall Street's hopes. This is followed by Sartorius with share price losses of €200. Places 3-5 are then occupied by share price losses of less than €100. All in all, a month with almost no losers.
The performance-neutral movements in October amounted to just under € -6,000. Parts have already been removed here for private topics.
current year:
My performance in the current year is +29,9% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 26.9%.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~345.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€93,000 in the current year 2023. ~72.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.300€ from dividends / interest and ~16.000€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buying & selling:
Target 2024 & outlook 2025:
My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€345,000 at the end of November.
As is well known, one should not praise the day before the evening, but I am optimistic that my portfolio will not fall so far in December that I will not reach my target.
What will happen in 2025? The logical goal would of course be to reach €400,000. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change. However, as I am tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably refrain from doing so.
Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.
How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?
Detailed stock analysis of Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-1.65%)
& the competition
1. sales shares and margins by product (Q3 2024)
1.1 GLP-1-based diabetes treatments: Ozempic and Rybelsus
-Revenue share: DKK 34.94 billion (~49% of total revenue).
-Growth: +15 % YoY at constant exchange rates.
-Product characteristics:
- These drugs belong to the group of GLP-1 receptor agonists. They regulate blood glucose levels, promote insulin release and contribute to weight management.
- Ozempic in particular is a world-leading drug for type 2 diabetes and is increasingly prescribed off-label for weight loss.
- Rybelsus offers the advantage of being available as an oral GLP-1 therapy, which improves compliance.
-Margin: Profitability is exceptionally high due to high prices and increasing demand in emerging and developed markets.
1.2 Obesity therapies: Wegovy
-Revenue share: DKK 18.8 billion (~26% of total revenue).
-Growth: +55% YoY at constant exchange rates; fastest growing segment.
-Product characteristics:
- Wegovy is based on semaglutide and, according to studies, has the potential to reduce weight by up to 20 %. This significantly reduces the risk of secondary diseases such as cardiovascular disease.
- The market for obesity is growing rapidly as obesity is increasingly recognized as a disease.
-Margin: Very high as Wegovy is an innovative therapy and has limited competition.
1.3 Insulins: Tresiba, Levemir and NovoRapid
-Sales share: DKK 12.51 billion (~18% of total sales).
-Growth: +10 % YoY.
-Product characteristics:
- Tresiba (long-acting), Levemir and NovoRapid (short-acting) cover all needs of type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients.
- Despite growing competition from biosimilars, Novo Nordisk remains the market leader.
-Margin: Stable, but lower than for GLP-1 therapies.
1.4 Rare diseases (e.g. haemophilia, sickle cell disease)
-Revenue share: DKK 4.57 billion (~6 % of total sales).
-Growth: +17 % YoY.
-Product characteristics:
-Mim8 addresses hemophilia A and is safe and well tolerated.
-Etavopivatcurrently in phase 3, has the potential to significantly improve the quality of life of sickle cell patients.
-Margin: Very high, as therapies for rare diseases can often command premium prices.
2. target groups and diseases in focus
2.1 Diabetes mellitus (type 1 and type 2)
-Epidemiology:
- Worldwide: 537 million people (2023).
- Forecast: 783 million by 2045 (International Diabetes Federation).
-Products:
- GLP-1 receptor agonists are the drug of choice for type 2 diabetes, especially Ozempic.
- Insulins remain essential for type 1 diabetes.
-Target groups:
- Type 2 diabetics (90 % of cases). Especially patients in industrialized nations such as the USA, where the prevalence of obesity and diabetes is increasing.
2.2 Obesity
-Epidemiology:
- Over 800 million people worldwide; forecast: 1 billion by 2030 (WHO).
-Products:
- Wegovy is the market leader and shows weight reductions of 15-20% in clinical studies.
-Target groups:
- Patients with obesity or overweight, particularly in affluent countries with a high average BMI.
2.3 Rare diseases
-Epidemiology:
- Haemophilia A: 400,000 people affected worldwide.
- Sickle cell disease: Over 6 million people affected, mainly in Africa.
-Products:
- Therapies such as Mim8 and Etavopivat cover important therapeutic gaps.
3 Competitor analysis
3.1 Eli Lilly $LLY (+1%)
-Mounjaro (tirzepatide):
- Dual agonist (GLP-1/GIP) that is very effective for both diabetes and obesity.
- Studies show weight losses of 20-25%, which positions Mounjaro as a direct competitor to Wegovy and Ozempic.
-Long-term strengths:
- Eli Lilly has a strong pipeline and plans to launch several new products over the next few years.
3.2 Pfizer and Amgen $PFE (+0.94%)
$AMGN (+0.26%)
-Pfizer: Oral GLP-1 therapies could compete with Rybelsus.
-Amgen: Research focus on innovative obesity drugs such as AMG 133.
3.3 Sanofi (insulin market) $SAN (-1.41%)
-Strengths: Strong position in the global insulin market.
-Weaknesses: Declining sales due to the market shift towards GLP-1 therapies.
4. financial strength and margins
Sales (Q3 2024)71.31 bn.
-Gross margin: 84,6 % (Q3 2024).
-Operating profit: DKK 33.8 billion (+21% compared to the previous year)
-Future potential: Sales in the obesity segment are expected to continue to dominate growth, particularly due to increasing acceptance and introduction of new drugs such as CagriSema.
Novo Nordisk will remain the long-term leader, although the competition (especially Eli Lilly) is becoming increasingly innovative. The combination of market leadership, product innovation and financial strength secures Novo Nordisk a key role in the global healthcare market.
$AMGN (+0.26%) MariTide demonstrated up to ~20% average weight loss at 52 weeks without a weight loss plateau in people living with obesity or overweight (Amgen Inc)
- Positive data at 52 weeks in a double-blind, dose-ranging Phase 2 study with MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide, formerly AMG 133), an investigational antibody peptide conjugate subcutaneously administered monthly or less frequently. In people living with obesity or overweight without Type 2 diabetes, MariTide demonstrated up to ~20% average weight loss at week 52 without a weight loss plateau, indicating the potential for further weight loss beyond 52 weeks. The study also showed people living with obesity or overweight and Type 2 diabetes, who typically lose less weight on GLP-1 therapies, achieved up to ~17% average weight loss, also without a weight loss plateau, and lowered their average hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) by up to 2.2 percentage points at week 52. In summary, in both study populations, a weight loss plateau was not observed, again indicating the potential for further weight loss beyond 52 weeks.
- MariTide also demonstrated robust and clinically meaningful improvements in cardiometabolic parameters, including blood pressure, triglycerides and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) across doses. There were no significant increases in free fatty acids.
Wall Street was expecting a 25% weight loss result.
$NVO (-1.09%)
$LLY (+1%) and possibly $VKTX (-3.32%) dodged another bullet with $AMGN obesity results disappointing
Marc Lehman has raised concerns about Amgen's $AMGN (+0.26%) weight-loss drug, AMG 133 (maridebart cafraglutide), currently in preclinical and Phase 1 trials. According to the report, AMG 133 is a bispecific molecule targeting obesity by combining a GIPR antagonist with GLP-1 agonist peptides. Early trials show promising weight loss and metabolic improvements, with Phase 1 data showing prolonged weight reduction in obese participants. However, questions remain regarding Amgen’s broader obesity strategy and potential competition in the incretin-based therapeutic market.
