Soprano · 2024-11-21T10:51:37.043251Z

Am Ende kann man nur hoffen, dass man es nicht bereut. Europäische Aktien im Sommerschlussverkauf. Ich habe heute die letzte Tranche Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX nachgekauft. Grund ist natürlich, dass ich weiterhin vom Unternehmen überzeugt bin, allerdings vermag niemand zu sagen wie lange es noch dauern wird bevor die Aktie wieder zum Leben erweckt wird. Vermutlich kann es sogar noch weiter bergab gehen, trotzdem habe ich mir vorgenommen ab jetzt nicht noch weiter nachzukaufen, da die Position groß genug ist und sonst mein Risikomanagement nicht mehr hinhaut. Insgesamt habe ich meine Positionsgröße von rund 1% auf etwas über 3% erhöht, was schon ein deutliches Commitment in ein deutsches Unternehmen, die bekanntlich besonders volatil sind, darstellt. Ähnliches gilt für das Unternehmen L'Oreal $OR auch hier bin ich bei einem Buy-In von 365€ mit dem Kaufen fertig und habe eine Positionsgröße erreicht, die sich bereits der 4% Depotgewichtung nährt. Vermutlich fallen die Aktien jetzt erstmal noch weiter, was ich dann einfach durchhalten muss. Lieber konzentriere ich mich jetzt auf andere Chancen wie Thermo Fisher $TMO bei denen ich in diesem Monat ebenfalls bereits doppelt zugeschlagen habe. Hier kann ich mir aber bei fallenden Kursen sehr wohl vorstellen auch noch deutlich mehr zu kaufen. Nicht auszuschließen ist, dass, wenn der Markt insgesamt schwächer wird, doch bald noch bei LVMH $MC und $ASML ein Erstkauf erfolgen könnte. Mit den vier hier bereits genannten (+ $NOVO B ) hätte man glaube ich das Potenzial an westeuropäischen Aktien auch schon vollständig ausgeschöpft. Es ist halt eine schwierige Kiste. Europa ist momentan attraktiv wie nie zuvor im Vergleich zum warm gelaufenen amerikanischen Markt. Entweder kann man JETZT die Chance des Jahrzehnts nutzen und auf eine Erholung der europäischen Wirtschaft setzen, dann knallen hier in 2 Jahren die Sektkorken. Oder es kommt zu einer völligen Implosion der europäischen Wirtschaft (und dann sind die zweistelligen Verluste im Depot noch unser geringstes Problem)

@Soprano

2Mon·

In the end, you can only hope that you don't regret it. European shares in the summer sale.

Today I bought the last tranche of Carl Zeiss Meditec $AFX (+0.04%) today. The reason is of course that I am still convinced of the company, but nobody can say how long it will be before the share comes back to life.

It could probably go down even further, but I have decided not to buy any more from now on as the position is large enough and otherwise my risk management will no longer work.

Overall, I have increased my position size from around 1% to just over 3%, which already represents a clear commitment to a German company, which is known to be particularly volatile.

The same applies to L'Oreal $OR (+1.61%) here, too, I have finished buying with a buy-in of €365 and have reached a position size that is already approaching the 4% portfolio weighting. The shares will probably continue to fall for the time being, which I will simply have to hold on to.

I would now rather concentrate on other opportunities such as Thermo Fisher $TMO (+0.97%) where I have already doubled down this month. Here, however, I can well imagine buying significantly more if prices fall.

It cannot be ruled out that, if the market as a whole weakens, LVMH $MC (+1.78%) and $ASML (+1.54%) a first purchase could take place. With the four stocks already mentioned here (+ $NOVO B (+0.8%) ) mentioned here, I believe that the potential of Western European equities has already been fully exhausted.

It's just a difficult case. Europe is currently more attractive than ever before compared to the hot American market. Either you can seize the opportunity of the decade NOW and bet on a recovery of the European economy, then the champagne corks will pop here in two years' time. Or there will be a complete implosion of the European economy (and then the double-digit losses in the portfolio will be the least of our problems)

29 Comments

BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

2Mon

I have a similar view, if $MC and $ASML fall even further I will buy more. ✌️

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Mon

@BamBamInvest
LVMH has been annoying me in the portfolio for a year, and now the crap is starting with ASML as well.

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Maximilian@Max095

2Mon

@Tenbagger2024 will again 🚀always think long-term!

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

And I have to say again that I'm really not a doomsayer or a crash prophet. It really is possible that everything will be fine again. But it is just as possible that the economy in our part of the world could go down the drain. The major European economies are not sending out good signals and, as interlinked as the companies are, this could turn into a general downward spiral. You really have to realize that the best companies in Europe (maybe with the exception of Ferrari $RACE ) are either YOY or YTD negative - and that's without any business mistakes being made. It's simply that European consumers have empty pockets and things aren't looking rosy in East Asia either. Politicians need to do more for the economy quickly than just lower interest rates. Tax relief and investment in education and infrastructure are needed, the sooner the better.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

2Mon

@Soprano is true, but I think that regardless of Europe, those companies that have a technological advantage and operate worldwide will still go their way. If products from $MC become more expensive or tariffs are introduced, this will not deter many people from buying them. They may even become even more attractive 😂 . Of course, demand will probably fall . The same applies to $ASML as the leading companies cannot afford to be at a technological disadvantage here. But you have to be careful when selecting companies .

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egea💼@egeacapital

2Mon

@Soprano right, Europe needs a change, we need a strong economy, politicians need to stop losing time about nonsense and start taking care of the economy and try to atract big companies and more important to incentive to create new ones, mainly in the tech sector that are the more "efficient and profitable". They have to stop making regulations and to start de-regulating things. But with socialism is imposible to achieve that.

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@BamBamInvest I wouldn't be so sure about LVMH. Of course, customers will still be able to afford the products even with tariffs. The question is whether the products will still be in demand.

LVMH's luxury factor depends solely on the prestige of the French nation. You could make the same products in Senegal and earn a maximum of €20. France has fought hard for its reputation as a luxury country for decades. When you hear the words "shoes from Milan" or "shoes from Paris", you automatically think of really chic and expensive shoes, even though no mention is made of the fact that they are not rubber boots.

However, you can now see how this good reputation of Europe is getting worse and worse. There are many examples of this. It starts with soccer fans, who noticed for the first time on German trains during the European Championships that punctuality, cleanliness and safety are not always a priority here.

And it continues with viral trends such as "Dubai chocolate". 50 years ago, Switzerland was always the land of chocolate and nobody would have thought of paying €30 for a chocolate from a Gulf state. But now Dubai has established itself as a luxury country. It is quite possible that in a few years they will also be selling handbags for €3000 because Dubai will then stand for fashion and cosmetics and no longer Paris.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

2Mon

@Soprano I don't think that the luxury factor of $MC depends solely on the prestige of the French nation. I don't know if you or your partner uses/owns LVMH products or if you've been in an LVMH store recently? But it's definitely not just to do with French prestige, the brand is extremely strong and in demand and the stores are always full. Of course it is questionable to call it luxury, as most products are now affordable for many people, but personally I am very convinced and it is not just a brand but an empire of brands and you will certainly continue to buy here ✌️

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@BamBamInvest Have you ever been to a Turkish market? You can get all the LVMH products there too, and at much lower prices. Most of them look almost indistinguishable and the days when they were really junk that broke quickly are over. So it's neither the design, nor the material, nor the workmanship that makes LVMH unique.

Of course, people still run to the stores to buy the original products. I know that too. But why do they do that when they could just buy the fake without any disadvantages? Because the real products are made in France and not in Turkey.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

2Mon

@Soprano Yes, I was and some of them are really badly made and cannot be compared. Apart from that, I dare to doubt that those people who can afford it don't buy fake goods purely for reasons of prestige. But everyone is entitled to their own opinion and in my opinion it's more about the pattern, the tradition and the look itself than about France. You usually have the bags for eternity. I may be biased because I really like the products/bags. In any case, I'm convinced it doesn't have to be you 😁

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@BamBamInvest I'm a bit at my wit's end now. In the second sentence, you say yourself that prestige is decisive, only to say one sentence later that prestige doesn't matter xD
Yes, I know you're referring more to the brands, but they're also based on the "Made in France" myth. Don't you think there's a reason why there are Kering and Hermes in France as well as LVMH, each of which has dozens of top brands?

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Froggo@Froggerino

2Mon

I see it exactly as you do. European shares are simply undervalued in direct relation to American shares. I will gradually increase my European share.

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Alexander Schober@alexschober_

2Mon

I have sold almost my entire European sector, I just don't see any potential for the next 5 years. Especially not under a Trump administration. The EU has made itself dependent on the USA, both economically and militarily. This is going to fall on our heads, or is already doing so. The car industry in Germany has failed to catch up with China and is now starting to half-heartedly adapt its car designs to China, which nobody here wants. We haven't been competitive for a long time and that's not going to change any time soon. That's why I'm keeping my hands off Europe and am now looking at the reaction to Trump's first year in office. Something has to happen on the part of the EU, that's for sure!

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@alexschober_ I largely agree with you, but I don't see that the car industry has missed out on China at all. My perception was that the European carmakers have focused very strongly on China - however, the European carmakers are being put in the way by their own EU government, while the Chinese are pushing their car industry massively.

As a result, Chinese cars are now better in terms of price and performance than their European counterparts and they no longer earn anything in Asia. At the same time, traditional German companies such as BMW have now specialized in building rice stoves that neither the Europeans nor the Americans really want.

Just take a look at a BMW 2025 ix3 - the new model is so ugly that a Dacia Duster looks like an S-Class in comparison.

Or take a look at what Jaguar has become. They used to be cars that made you feel like an English lord. The new brand design looks like they're a manufacturer of vapes that some woke student smokes in Berlin Mitte.

The EU's e-car strategy is simply suicide. China is not in a position to build a proper combustion engine with a V8. But China is very capable of building cheap plastic cars and, unlike us, also has rare earths to be a leader in battery technology. That's enough to give a normal person a headache.

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Alexander Schober@alexschober_

2Mon

@Soprano I think we've had the same thought, but we've talked past each other a little. I see it the same way as you do with the BMW ix3, for example. The latest models from Germany's former carmaking powers just look like shit. What I actually meant by "failed to catch up with China" was that, as you also mentioned, we have put obstacles in the way of our own car industry. I don't understand why the EU didn't stick with the combustion engine, which has obviously been massively well received. Instead, they are trying to follow the e-car trend in China, but they can't keep up with Chinese prices and are therefore shooting themselves in the foot.

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@alexschober_ Ah, yes, then we are actually in agreement. I had understood that to mean that VW and Co. supposedly hadn't invested enough in China or something.

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Tom@Tomtom12

2Mon

Lvmh will be back. Covers 10% of my portolio. This is the opportunity now folks

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DerDanner@Therapeut

1Mon

What do you think of ThermoFisher, I've had it in my portfolio for 2 years now and it's going absolutely nowhere, up 2%

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Soprano@Soprano

1Mon

@Therapeut I'm even down 2% hahaha. After the record years of 2021 and 2022, the share was simply valued relatively confidently and now has to grow into these footsteps.

As is typical for the industry, medical technology companies did not have good years in 2023 and 2024 because customers filled their stocks with hoarding purchases during the pandemic. These excess stocks have now been reduced and more investment enthusiasm is expected across the entire sector in 2025, while the champagne corks will really start to fly again from 2026.

You simply haven't been able to get a bargain with Thermo Fisher for years. But they won't get any cheaper than they are now. I will therefore fill up my portfolio in the next six months at prices between USD 500-520 and enjoy the returns for the next two decades. But even better would be USD 480, which would be almost a gift.

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DerDanner@Therapeut

1Mon

@Soprano sounds quite good, wanted to get out of the stock soon and reallocate

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Soprano@Soprano

1Mon

@Therapeut In what? I wouldn't go out there. The fact that the share hasn't fallen like Carl Zeiss shows how robust they are. It's a typical long-term stock.

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DerDanner@Therapeut

1Mon

@Soprano S&P500 and if Allianz would be cheaper again then in Allianz. I'm currently expanding my S&P500 and could use my €1000 free lump sum with Allianz.

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Kate💎 🙌.@Iwanowitsch

2Mon

home bias 🙁

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@Iwanowitsch doesn't the comment make any sense?

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Kate💎 🙌.@Iwanowitsch

2Mon

@Soprano ok, Europe Bias 😌

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@Iwanowitsch But what does that mean? A home bias is when you overweight companies from your home country. But I am quite skeptical.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

2Mon

$AIXA $STMPA $GFT

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Obsidian@Obsidian

1Mon

Very interesting point of view 👍🏻🙏🏻 I’m betting on a European come back, that’s probably my patriotism speaking more than my reason. But as you said, « if the European economy implose, then the double digit losses will be the least of our problems ».

In the meantime, LVMH and ASML are exposed worldwide and are leading companies in their industries, with very strong leadership. Hard to bet against that, and the current price is definitely attractive.

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aminemeskni@Aminmeskini

1Mon

You read my mind!!! They are very attractively valued compared to the American stocks. I am with ASML

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