5H·

🇪🇺 Has Europe missed the AI boat?

Probably not. Perhaps a European photonics cluster. When people talk about AI, it’s usually about NVIDIA, data centers, or the next language models. At the same time, something exciting has happened in Europe: In the planned Chips Act 2.0 , photonics has been explicitly named for the first time as a strategic field of the future.

This comes as no surprise. After all, modern AI systems need more than just computing power. Above all, they must process ever-larger amounts of data quickly, reliably, and energy-efficiently. This is precisely where a future infrastructure bottleneck could emerge.

What I find exciting is that (with the exception of X-Fab and Nokia) my own portfolio and, to some extent, the bottleneck wikifolios already include several European companies that together almost form a complete photonics value chain :

🇫🇷 Riber
$ALRIB (+8.7%)

MBE systems for the production of highly specialized III-V semiconductors.

🇫🇷 Soitec
$SOI (+6.89%)

Specialty substrates and wafer technologies as the foundation for photonic integration.

🇩🇪 Aixtron
$AIXA (+5.29%)

Production equipment for InP, GaN, and other photonics applications.

🇳🇱 X-Fab
$XFAB (+14.87%)

European foundry expertise for sensor technology and photonic applications.

🇸🇪 Sivers Semiconductors
$SIVE (+11.44%)

Photonics and high-frequency chips for data transmission.

🇮🇹 Technoprobe
$TPRO (+6.64%)

Probe cards and test solutions for increasingly complex semiconductor structures.

🇫🇮 Nokia
$NOKIA (+5%)

Optical networking technologies for the next generation of data transmission. The acquisition of Infinera makes Nokia an increasingly relevant European player in the field of optical networking.

🇮🇹 Prysmian
$PRY (+7.02%)

Fiber-optic infrastructure as the physical backbone of digital data transmission.

Taken individually, some of these companies seem rather unremarkable. Taken together, however, they tell a different story. Not that of a continent that has fallen behind. But rather the story of a potential European photonics ecosystem in the making.

Whether this will actually give rise to global champions, no one knows today. But that is exactly where I look for bottlenecks: one level below the obvious winners. Where new technologies are made possible in the first place.

⚠️ Not investment advice.

#photonics
#wikifolio
#scalelimits
#europa

14 Comments

Chris@Chris98_

I’ve also been reallocating my portfolio over the last few days… and invested in $SIVE, $XFAB, and $AAOI. I also invested in a smaller, lesser-known small-cap company called $SHT B. They have a partnership with $HEN.

I also find$NOKIA very interesting… Thanks for your research! I’ll take a look at the other stocks as well. 🙂

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

@Chris98_ That's great. I find Technoprobe $TPRO particularly interesting.

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

That's really interesting. Thanks for the post 👍🏻

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

@ChrisBizz Thanks for the feedback, and I'm glad you like the post, Christoph.

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Chris@Multibagger

Do you have all of them in the repository or on the wiki?

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

@Multibagger In my own portfolio, I hold all of them except X-Fab and Nokia. I’m interested in X-Fab. It’s a good complement to Tower Semi. In my wikifolio “NextLimits,” I have Sivers Semi and Soitec from the European selection. In “TechLimits,” it’s Aixtron. And finally, in “CoreLimits,” it’s Prysmian.

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Chris@Multibagger

@ScaleLimits In other words, even though you’ve summarized them here, you can already see them in different parts of your bottleneck theory. I’m a little annoyed about $XFAB. I actually wanted to buy that one yesterday. I ended up deciding on $AT100ASTA001 instead. And today the prices have dropped a bit, even though the bottleneck remains, of course, but at 10% lower, the bottleneck is just as significant and the profit potential is better.

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

@Multibagger Exactly. While these companies appear here together as part of a potential European photonics supply chain, they play different roles in my bottleneck logic.

To me, Prysmian is more of a traditional infrastructure company, which is why it ended up in CoreLimits. Aixtron does benefit from photonics, but it has a much broader footprint and, to me, is more of a TechLimits stock. Soitec and Sivers, on the other hand, are much more closely tied to the future photonics bottleneck. That’s why they’re in NextLimits. Everything’s neatly categorized.

The bottleneck remains the same. However, the levels of maturity, risk profiles, and proximity to concrete monetization differ significantly.

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Johannes@Johannes12345

Which of these companies do you find most interesting in terms of risk and opportunity at this point?

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

@Johannes12345 My personal opinion, which is not intended as investment advice: If I had to pick three, I’d choose Prysmian, Aixtron, and Technoprobe. As a speculative bet, I’d add Sivers. If I could only pick one, I’d go with Technoprobe.

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Johannes@Johannes12345

@ScaleLimits Thanks for your take on it. Sivers has really been on a wild ride. What makes you so "positive" about Technoprobe?

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

@Johannes12345 Technoprobe hasn’t just performed exceptionally well—see the charts. In my view, Technoprobe is a key player in the next generation of semiconductors. The company is at the heart of the AI stack and is the world’s leading supplier of probe cards (for testing wafers). They’re needed everywhere—in HBM, advanced packaging, chiplets, and, in the future, photonics. The more complex semiconductors become, the higher the testing requirements rise. Errors in the stack can cost millions. I see the bottleneck right in front of me. I don’t see a head-and-shoulders pattern or fancy metrics. I see the bottleneck and believe it will be important in the long term. Past success is evident in the strong stock performance over the last 12 months. That’s why I hold Technoprobe. And its counterpart, Onto Innovation.

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Johannes@Johannes12345

14Min

@ScaleLimits I meant that Sivers has already run its course. That’s why I’m looking for an alternative that still has potential—even if it involves some risk. Of course, not pure gambling 😅
Is there a part missing after "that" in your comment?🙈 I’ve definitely added $TPRO to my watchlist. Sounds super exciting if they can benefit from both increased chip production and the growing complexity of chips. Then, as a rule, there’s no getting around the leading providers. I have plenty of time for the next generation of chips—and the one after that 😎

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Oliver@ScaleLimits

9Min

@Johannes12345 Nothing is missing.

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