3D·

🤔 With the market behaving this way, I have no idea how the numbers will play out

$IREN (+17,11%)

  • Revenue: $228 million (+66% compared to the previous quarter), of which $200 million came from AI Cloud (nearly tripled) and only $28 million from Bitcoin mining
  • Margin: AI Cloud gross margin remained stable at 86%; adjusted EBITDA rose from $19 million to $66 million
  • Still a loss: Net loss of $263 million (previous quarter: −$684 million, due to large write-downs at that time)
  • Backlog: $20.3 billion (+22%), about two-thirds from customers with investment-grade ratings
  • Main headwind: Although the $4 billion ARR target is contractually secured and financed, it is being pushed back from the end of 2026 to January 2027, possibly until the end of February. The reasons are a design change requested by the customer and delivery times
  • New contracts signed after the end of the quarter: An expansion with a leading AI lab, a 5-year contract at approximately $22 million/MW (the customer pays 90% of the GPU costs upfront), and a short-term contract at $40 million/MW. Prices are rising by 11–12% for 3- and 5-year contracts
  • Financing: $15 billion in Capex is still planned for the remainder of FY27, of which only $9 billion has been secured. Net debt rose from $0.2 billion to $4.4 billion
  • Milestone: Horizon 1 is operational at Microsoft


Did it meet expectations? Yes, in terms of revenue—slightly above expectations. Consensus estimates ranged from $219.95 million (Zacks) to $230.45 million, depending on the source, with most at around $221.7 million. At $228 million, IREN is thus at the high end of the range. This is noteworthy because, throughout the 2026 fiscal year, revenue had missed the consensus every quarter.

The press release does not specify earnings per share, so I cannot accurately compare it to the estimates (approximately −$0.49 to −$0.76). The postponement of the ARR target is likely to be received negatively by the market, as the stock was already under significant pressure. On November 4, it closed at $21.71, a new 52-week low.

attachment
26
19 Comentários

It's your own fault if you buy junk like that
•
8
•
imagem de perfil
••
imagem de perfil
@Maximilian1 How can anyone even comment on such junk?
••
I'm sticking with it and will see how things develop over the next quarter😌, but I really didn't expect to have to give up more than 50% of my gains within a month.
•
5
•
imagem de perfil
•
1
•
imagem de perfil
•
1
•
imagem de perfil
•
1
•
imagem de perfil
With a gain of just under 10% after hours, that's probably pretty good 😅
•
4
•
imagem de perfil
@Stocktective It'll be back (soon), don't worry.😂
•
4
•
imagem de perfil
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin A change of pace is always good 👻
•
1
•
imagem de perfil
Fundamentally, everything is in order, but everyone is seeing only the negative. The earnings call was fantastic, the investment thesis is on track, and the potential is still easily 10–20x.
•
4
•
imagem de perfil
I think it's better to sell the stocks while you still can. Do you remember when I commented on your last post about financing costs and political risk? Democrats were elected in three of the most important locations for U.S. data centers (Texas, Ohio, Georgia), and all of them have spoken out against data centers—some even want a moratorium. Financing costs have also risen sharply. In addition, the hyperscalers are slipping into the red, as we’ve recently seen with Alphabet and Meta. So it’s only a matter of time before CAPEX spending is cut due to pressure from investors and political uncertainty, which will then lead to the collapse of most of these “neoclouds.” In the long run, we won’t need these neoclouds anyway, but it could happen faster than you think.
•
2
•
@PikaPika0105 Why sell? Things can hardly get much worse. I'm with Iren. A 60% loss wouldn't do any good at this point.
••
imagem de perfil
@bull_investor_1994_ I’d generally get rid of them, but it doesn’t really matter whether you do it today or in a few days or weeks. I think the company won’t be around much longer, but it won’t happen that quickly. Of course, sometimes you have to consider whether it’s worth selling at a 50% loss if you can offset that loss more quickly with another position, but there’s no pressure to do so.
••
@PikaPika0105 But Irish stocks have always fluctuated wildly, so it's quite possible they'll go up again.
••
imagem de perfil
@bull_investor_1994_ Yes, that could very well be the case. However, that doesn't change the fact that I don't believe in the business model or the market itself, for numerous reasons. In the short term, the stock could of course rise again—it is, after all, a very volatile stock—but what happens in a few months or years is another story.
••
@PikaPika0105 Yeah, you just have to understand—if I sell now, I’ll definitely have lost money, or I’ll be taking the risk of losing even more if the price keeps falling and doesn’t recover. But precisely because the stock is so volatile, I’m inclined to hold out until it goes back up, rather than lose money now. (Hopefully)
If that happens, I’ll sell when I’m at +-0.
••
imagem de perfil
@bull_investor_1994_ In the past, I’ve often sold stocks that were down 30% or so, and that’s worked out very well for me. I then reinvested the money wisely and, in almost all cases, recouped the losses relatively quickly, while the original stocks didn’t really recover—or didn’t do so until much later. At the same time, I topped up my loss reserve and received a direct tax refund, since I usually use up my tax allowance within a few days at the beginning of the year anyway. That was just my experience, and of course there’s no guarantee that it will always work out that way—it also depends on your new investment, of course. For example: I owned SEALSQ shares, and at some point, after taking a closer look, I wasn’t as satisfied with the company anymore. I then sold at -30% and invested the remaining money in Bonesupport, which ultimately worked out much better for me overall. Bonesupport gained about +40%, while SEALSQ lost another -50%. In most cases, things might not go quite so smoothly—I just wanted to show that sometimes it’s worth buying even at a loss, even if it hurts. You just have to keep a very close eye on IREN right now, and who knows—maybe I’m wrong, and it’ll turn out to be a great investment in the long run.
•
1
•
imagem de perfil
I'm still up by just under 100% 😅
••
Participar na conversa