1D·

My goal, your opinion

Greetings,

I generally don't think much of posts on feeds from any media, as they don't bring me any added value but merely serve to present myself. Now that I have followed the publications and reactions a bit, I think I have seen more than less constructive members here.

For this reason, I have decided to make the first post of my life here. It's not directly about sums, I just want to ask for your assessment of my savings plan and target allocation. Constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement are expressly welcome.

The whole thing is intended to reflect a core-satellite strategy with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.

Global diversification (core) - 60%:

Individual securities (satellites) - max. 20%:

Buffer (security) - approx. 20%:

Raw materials:

$IGLN (-0,58%) - 6%,,
$CMOE (-0,1%) - 4%,

Bonds:

$0GGH (+0,09%) - 6%,

Real estate:

$IWDP (+0,05%) - 4%.

My thought process should be clear. The core should cover global performance with a percentage distribution based on economic strength. Separately, the World Health Care ETF, as people are getting older and sicker and, in my opinion, the healthcare sector is not so strongly represented in the other ETFs.

For the satellites, my thought process is as follows:

Berkshire can be seen as an ETF and covers successful individual stocks.

Nothing works without energy, hence BWX (USA) and Iberdrola (Europe). I see digital security threatened by AI and the further development of data centers etc., hence CrowdStrike. Companies will always need good software to be able to expand and still keep track of things, hence HubSpot. In connection with AI and the armed conflicts in our world, I see drones as a future-oriented technology in all possible areas, hence AeroVironment. And I discovered Intellia as a medical catapult, which is admittedly a bit of a gamble, but always gets a lot of drugs into the test phase.

I don't think I need to say much about the buffers, as in my view these are the investments that remain stable or grow in difficult market phases when everything else is falling.

This gives you a little insight into my thinking and actions. Please don't tear it apart, I'm not a professional but I'm sacrificing some of my remaining free time to get a bit of an insight into the world of capital and maybe get a small slice.

I welcome any opinions and suggestions for improvement.

I wish everyone a successful week!

Best regards

Nils

15 Comentários

Epi@Epi

It's great that you dared to do it, that's what the community thrives on. 💪

About your portfolio:
It looks well-organized and well thought-out at first. The devil lies in various risks that you rarely see. I hope you're aware of them.

1. drawdown: Your portfolio has a certain risk on the currency side. Your ETFs are all unhedged, so your portfolio will lose significantly if the USD falls.

2. diversification: Most of your portfolio is highly correlated. I estimate >0.8, i.e. if one position falls, most of the others will fall too.

3. liquidity: Your portfolio essentially depends on the liquidity situation of the markets, especially the USA. There are already dark clouds on the horizon. If there is a liquidity squeeze, your portfolio will be defenseless.

4th strategy: You are only pursuing a single strategy, i.e. virtually no diversification on this side. B&H has done well for the last 15 years, 2000-2011 was terrible. I would diversify here.

Good luck!

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Pl@Luca_x_j

Hello, I would take the Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF instead of the $XDWH. Personally, if I were to invest in commodities as a security, I would only buy them physically. And with a maximum of 5%, but of course that also depends on the personal investment risk.

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Damian@Divalo

Very nice to read your first post. As you say, I'm not a professional investor, but I'm happy with your current strategy. Unfortunately, I can't give you any detailed information about other stocks. But I can wish you a lot of fun and success on the getquin platform, there are really very interesting posts and users here, where I always like to spend my time to see what ideas and strategies the others have.

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KevinE@KevinE

17H

I don't think your thoughts are bad in principle.

A lot of things have already been mentioned. Since I invest quite heavily in individual stocks, perhaps a few words on this.

You did mention why you find the shares interesting. But not how you classify their pricing.

Example: you have a well-run craft business with which you make a profit of €100,000 every year (simplified, inflation and other external factors such as the interest rate environment are completely ignored here).

As the owner, you have your €100,000 every year. However, you are thinking about reorienting yourself and want to sell the business. Someone comes along and offers you €800,000 (8 times the annual profit). Is that attractive and do you agree? What if someone were to offer you only €350,000 or €1.4 million (not at the same time of course, but all offers have to be decided individually).

I think you understand what I'm getting at. How do you determine that the companies you have selected (20% of your portfolio!) are well (favorably) priced?

Perhaps take a look at the long-term charts (from 1995 to today) of big names such as Oracle, IBM, Nokia, Blackberry, Allianz, etc.

If you buy at the wrong time, you may not make a profit for decades (!).

Take Allianz, for example:

Share price 12/1996: 125€
Price 04/2000: 360€
Price 03/2003: 53€
Course 06/2007: 163€
Course 11/2008: 47€
Course 11/2025: 362€

If you had entered in 2008, you would have made a very good deal. If you had bought in at the all-time high in 2000, you would not have made any price gains to date (at least the dividend would still have been on top). And that's with a holding period of 25 years - and that doesn't even take inflation into account.

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_Barren_Wuffet_@_Barren_Wuffet_

12H

@KevinE
A very illustrative example, of course I know what you mean.
You've also found a point that I find fascinating with well-invested people: how do you find the best possible entry point? A quick look at your portfolio with your returns showed me that you also seem to have a method that works in this area.

I don't do any fundamental analysis of the companies, if only because my savings rate in the individual shares is so low that it's not worth the effort. I look at how the company is doing, whether it has recently made sensible decisions, whether the share price is on a rollercoaster or is following a relatively stable trend. Then how high the value of the company is, how profits have developed over the last 5-10 years. Whether I believe in the company's product also plays a role.

After a while, it becomes clear whether I made a good investment or whether I bought at an overpriced price. In addition, the equity price smoothes out with continued saving.

These are my humble initial thoughts. I think you'll be able to tell me more about this, I'm curious!

That really is a sobering example with Allianz. I generally have the feeling that the market has become incredibly expensive compared to the past, or am I mistaken?

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KevinE@KevinE

11H

@_Barren_Wuffet_

Let me try to structure my thoughts on this.

I assume you are trying to outperform broad market ETFs with your individual stocks (serious question, other goals such as similar returns to the market with lower volatility would also be a valid goal)?

Let's now assume that you achieve this outperformance and are 1.5% p.a. better than an ACWI or a 70%World / 30%EM portfolio.

Example: with the broad ETF portfolio you achieve 8% p.a., with your individual share portfolio 9.5% p.a. Ultimately, however, you are probably not interested in the figure itself, but in how much purchasing power you still achieve with it.

The inflation-adjusted return is a good 2% p.a. lower than the nominal return --> ETF portfolio: 6% p.a., individual share portfolio: 7.5% p.a.

Let's compare this over the long term with a savings plan of €500 per month that you keep for 35 years.

ETF portfolio: €716,000 final value
Individual portfolio: €1,021,000 final value. In each case, today's purchasing power.

That's quite a difference. But the point is - you have to generate the better return from year 1 onwards, otherwise the difference to the ETF savings plan will not work out. So even if your portfolio isn't that big to begin with, it will have a big impact in the long term.

Before I go into how I screen and evaluate companies, my well-intentioned advice: for many people it is more efficient to invest their time in working hours, further education and career advancement rather than in stock market analysis.

It is still more efficient to invest €800 at 6% (adjusted for inflation) than €500 at 7.5% (at least in my example with an investment period of 35 years).

I have decided for myself that I like my specialist position, my working hours are very reasonable and I therefore have a lot of time in which I have (so far) managed to generate alpha.

For others, it is much more lucrative to take the market return with them and work 1-2 hierarchy levels higher and double the savings plan. That is the greater leverage in this case. Perhaps as a little food for thought.

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_Barren_Wuffet_@_Barren_Wuffet_

10H

@KevinE
First of all, thank you very much for taking the time to write this in such detail.

You are right in assuming that I am hoping for a "booster" in my portfolio with the individual shares.

The way you visualize it is of course even more tempting with the individual stocks, if the plan works out. I definitely understand your points and that also makes me think. However, I'm prepared to spend some time researching, as I also enjoy it somewhere.

I take your point and yes I am working on many things at the same time. I work full-time and take every shift that brings me extra money. I'm also doing my studies while working shifts and am in the process of climbing the career ladder.

So yes, investing more money is my plan. But investing more money and still outperforming the ETFs through individual stocks would be the best of both your suggestions, wouldn't it?

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